Loss of soil moisture and drought conditions continue to grow across New South Wales in September 2023

 

NSW DPI COMBINED DROUGHT INDICATOR MAPPING

Click on image to enlarge

Data current to 10/9/2023 (AEST)

CDI = Combined Drought Indicator. RI = Rainfall Index. SWI = Soil Water Index. PGI = Pasture Growth Index. DDI = Drought Direction Index

NOTE: The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of seasonal conditions and drought status. Other factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI.

From Hastings/Port Macquarie up to the NSW-Qld border 78.7% of the North Coast is Drought Affected and 9.2% In Drought. Only 12.1% is currently considered unaffected by drought.

Water NSW: regional water storage levels as of 14 September 2023

Updates can be found at https://www.waternsw.com.au/nsw-dams/nsw-storage-levels/regional-nsw-dam-levels

According to the NSW Department of Primary Industries, end August 2023:

Drought conditions are continuing to expand and intensify on the North Coast, Northern Tablelands, Hunter and the South East Local Land Services (LLS) Regions of NSW. These conditions are consistent with the onset of a major drought in these regions, and the drought indicators show that the area of this event is growing across the Northern Tablelands and North-West. Producers are continuing to monitor on-ground conditions and climate forecasts closely, while implementing actions in line with their individual drought strategies.

Seasonal Climate Outlook

Seasonal climate forecasts indicate increased likelihood of warmer than average daytime and overnight temperatures for most of NSW for the September to November period.

Rainfall has an increased likelihood of being below average to well below average for most of NSW for the next three months.

The ENSO Outlook status remains at El Niño ALERT. When El Niño ALERT criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive

Water Security State of Play: NSW Northern Rivers December 2020

 

As of 26 November 2020 an estimated 80.5 per cent of the NSW Northern Rivers region was not in drought. However, 1 per cent of the region was in full-blown drought, another 10 per cent drought affected and 8.2 per cent recovering, according to the NSW Dept. of Primary Industries.

By 2 December urban water supply in the region was coping but beginning to fall markedly. 

Clarence Valley Council sources its urban water from the Shannon Creek Dam and the Nymboida River Weir. Currently Shannon Creek Dam is at 84 per cent capacity and water flow at Nymboida Weir is well below safe extraction level. Level One water restrictions are in place across the valley.

Ballina Shire Council, Byron Shire Council, Lismore City Council and Richmond Valley Council all principally source their urban water through Rous County Council. The two dams in this cluster are currently at 90 per cent (Rocky Creek) and 89 per cent (Emigrant Creek). With Mullumbimby in Byron Shire sourcing its water from council’s own Laverty’s Weir. Everyday water restrictions apply in all four local government area ie., recommended water use of 160 litres per person per day.

Kyogle Shire Council draws its urban water from a weir on the Richmond River, a natural weir pool on Tooloom Creek and the small Petrochilos Dam with under gravel pump extraction from nearby Peacock Creek. Level One water restrictions are in place across the shire.

Toonumbar embankment dam on Iron Pot Creek about 30 kilometres west of Kyogle was at 55.7 percent of capacity on 30 November 2020.

Tweed Shire Council draws its urban water from the freshwater section of the Tweed River at Bray Park Weir, Clarrie Hall Dam and the weir pool on Tyalgum Creek (Oxley River). Due to low rainfall the Tyalgum district is now on Level Two water restrictions.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology rainfall and temperature predictions for January to March 2021 show that though the rest of summer may be hot across much of the Northern Rivers region there is reason to hope that rainfall will be adequate to meet our needs.

Quite rightly NSW Government refuses request not to release environmental flow waters into Shannon Creek - Clarence Valley & Coffs Harbour City councils expected to honour their undertakings

 

Shannon Creek Dam
IMAGE: Clarence Valley Council

The Daily Telegraph, 23 October 2020: 

North Coast local council areas will be forced back onto Level One water restrictions after the State Government refused a request from Clarence Valley and Coffs Harbour councils to keep more than two billion litres of water in the Shannon Creek Dam. 

Clarence Valley Council water cycle manager Greg Mashiah said a one-time exemption to the NSW Government’s license agreement had been requested, however, a verbal response had now been received declining the request. 

“Under our transparent extraction licence we need to release all the water that flows down the Shannon Creek into the dam,” he said. “This mimics the natural flow of the creek – the volume of water flowing into the dam must equal the volume flowing out.” Mr Mashiah said the water that came into the dam from Shannon Creek during the February flood had not yet been released. “We are currently waiting for written advice from the NSW Government with instructions on how they want the release to take place,” he said.

Regional town water security virtually ignored for last six years by NSW Coalition Government

The NSW Auditor General’s audit report of 24 September 2020, titled Support for regional town water infrastructure, reveals that state government has failed to meet its responsibilities and fulfil its undertaking for the last six years under the leadership first of Liberal Premier Barry O’Farrell, then of Liberal Premier Bruce Baird and finally of Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian 

In fact NSW Liberal and Nationals politicians didn't begin to get even remotely serious about regional town water security until 2018-19.

Audit Report Executive Summary, excerpt:

"The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (the department) is the lead agency for water resource policy, regulation and planning in NSW. It is also responsible for ensuring water management is consistent with the shared commitments of the Australian, State and Territory Governments under the National Water Initiative. This includes the provision of healthy, safe and reliable water supplies, and reporting on the performance of water utilities.

Ninety-two Local Water Utilities (LWUs) plan for, price and deliver town water services in regional NSW. Eighty-nine are operated by local councils under the New South Wales’ Local Government Act 1993, and other LWUs exercise their functions under the WM Act. The Minister for Water, Property and Housing is the responsible minister for water supply functions under both acts.

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Audit Report Conclusion, section in full:

The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment has not effectively supported or overseen town water infrastructure planning in regional NSW since at least 2014. It has also lacked a strategic, evidence-based approach to target investments in town water infrastructure.

A continued focus on coordinating town water planning, investments and sector engagement is needed for the department to more effectively support, plan for and fund town water infrastructure, and work with Local Water Utilities to help avoid future shortages of safe water in regional towns and cities.

The department has had limited impact on facilitating Local Water Utilities’ (LWU) strategic town water planning. Its lack of internal procedures, records and data mean that the department cannot demonstrate it has effectively engaged, guided or supported the LWU sector in Integrated Water Cycle Management (IWCM) planning over the past six years. Today, less than ten per cent of the 92 LWUs have an IWCM strategy approved by the department.

The department did not design or implement a strategic approach for targeting town water infrastructure investment through its $1 billion Safe and Secure Water Program (SSWP). Most projects in the program were reviewed by a technical panel but there was limited evidence available about regional and local priorities to inform strategic project assessments. About a third of funded SSWP projects were recommended via various alternative processes that were not transparent. The department also lacks systems for integrated project monitoring and program evaluation to determine the contribution of its investments to improved town water outcomes for communities. The department has recently developed a risk-based framework to inform future town water infrastructure funding priorities.

The department does not have strategic water plans in place at state and regional levels: a key objective of these is to improve town water for regional communities. The department started a program of regional water planning in 2018, following the NSW Government’s commitment to this in 2014. It also started developing a state water strategy in 2020, as part of an integrated water planning framework to align local, regional and state priorities. One of 12 regional water strategies has been completed and the remaining strategies are being developed to an accelerated timeframe: this has limited the department’s engagement with some LWUs on town water risks and priorities. [my yellow highlighting]

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Shannon Creek Dam water level continues to drop in January 2020

Against a background of continuing drought and low flows in many Clarence River catchment waterways, Shannon Creek Dam water storage continues to fall.

In early November 2019 the dam was at  97% of its total storage capacity.

By late December this had fallen  to 81% of capacity.

Currently in early January 2020 the dam is at 79% of its total storage capacity.

Water consumption now stands at 20.72 megalitres per day according to Clarence Valley Council.

Level 1 water restrictions are in place. 

However, if combined total consumption does not fall by 3 megalitres per day Level 2 water restrictions may be imposed in the near future.

Level 1 water restrictions now in place for Clarence Valley

As of Friday 13 December 2019 Shannon Creek Dam had fallen to 82.3 % of its total capacity.

So from 16 December 2019 Level 1 water restrictions apply in addition to existing permanent water conservation measures.

So:

• No outside garden watering between 9am and 4pm
• No sprinklers or unattended hoses
• Water efficient drip or spray systems – 15 minutes every 2 days*
• Hand held hoses - 1 hour every 2 days*
• No restriction on commercial/industrial use

* If your house address is an even number you can water on even numbered days. If your house address is an odd number you can water on odd numbered days.

NOTE: Breaching water restrictions is an offence under Section 637 of the Local Government Act.  Action may be undertaken against consumers who are detected breaching water restrictions in accordance with Council’s Enforcement Policy. Fines can apply to such breaches.

Too little or no water in pivotal NSW state dams? Who do you blame?

So who should NSW voters blame for the fact that state dams were not prepared for the current severe drought? It appears the finger points straight to then NSW Minister for Natural Resources, Lands and Water & Nationals MP for Barwon Kevin Humphries.

Now in comfortable retirement he can no longer be held to account for the damage he did by aiding and abetting the irrigator lobby in 2014.

In this he was assisted by then NSW Minister for Primary Industries & Nationals MP for Burrinjuck Katrina Hodgkinson who has also retired from the NSW Parliament. 

The Guardian, excerpt, 15 October 2019: 

In New South Wales, where the current drought is centred, water is allocated to towns, irrigators and other users based on how much water is expected to flow into dams in the coming year. Prior to 2014, NSW allocated water based on calculations around the “worst drought on record” and ensuring that high security water licence holders would still have water during the driest years. 

The worst drought on record for NSW was the millennium drought..... Planning for such a long drought and holding sufficient water in the state’s dams was opposed by former NSW water minister, Kevin Humphries, who claimed: 

"[Water allocation calculations] currently require water to be set aside within a dam, to ensure full or near full allocations for high security licences can be maintained through the worst drought on record. This water-sharing rule was developed prior to the recent millennial drought. When the millennium drought is taken into account, implementation would result in significant quantities of water being taken out of production, and held in reserve just in case an equally severe drought occurs again." 

 Read that again if you have to. Keeping water in dams “just in case” of severe drought is not good for business. Water in dams is water that isn’t being used for irrigation. 

Humphries introduced legislation that removed the millennium drought from water allocation calculations, meaning more water came out of dams for irrigation which would otherwise be available for towns through the drought.