So this Australian Winter was expected to be drier and warmer than the median mark, but now it seems twice as likely a rainfall suppressing El Niño event will also start this year

During the multi-year Millennium Drought from 1997 to 2010, south east Australia experienced its lowest 13-year rainfall record since 1865 over the years 2006 to 2010.

Temperatures were also much hotter than in previous droughts and temperature extremes peaked during the heatwave and bushfires in early 2009. This culminated in the loss of 374 lives in Victoria and many more over the larger southeast in the heatwave leading up to Black Saturday. There were 173 lives lost in the fires.

The years 2015 to 2016 saw El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the second half of 2015 further suppressing rainfall, so that rainfall was the equal fourth-lowest on record for Australia during September, Tasmania had its driest Spring on record and mean temperatures were also highest on record for October to December 2015. This El Niño also contributed to an early start to the 2015-16 southern fire season.

By 2017 Australia was again in the grips of a multi-year drought. Very dry conditions in the cool season were followed by only a limited recovery in the October–December period in 2017 and 2018. This meant record-low rainfalls over various multi-year periods.

By June 2018 more than 99% of NSW was declared as affected by drought. The most extreme rainfall deficiencies over multi-year periods occurring in the northern half of New South Wales.

In June-July 2019 New South Wales began a trial by mega bushfires, as did other east coast states, that lasted through to January 2020.

Widespread drought was not an issue for the remainder of 2020 through to the present day, given La Niña visited three times in three years bringing high rainfall events and record floods in the eastern states.

However, the Australian Dept. of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ABARE) is now drawing attention to this:

All but one international climate model surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will exceed El Niño thresholds in June. [ABARES Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 25 May 2023] 

[ABARES, 25 May 2023] Click on image to enlarge

Suggesting in its climate update that there is now twice the risk of an El Niño event this year, with a likelihood of it making itself felt sometime between August and October.

The overall outlook for this Australian Winter continues to be below median rainfall and warmer median temperatures. 

The main urban centres in the Clarence Valley have a chance of unusually warm temperatures over the winter months of between est. 55-60% (Maclean-Yamba-Iluka) and 59-65% (Grafton). While elsewhere in the Northern Rivers region unusually warm temperatures are expected in Lismore with est. 58-59% chance, Tweed Heads est. 59-62% chance, with Byron Bay & Ballina at est. 60-61% chance. [BOM, Climate outlooks—weeks, months and seasons, June-September 2023]

How this developing scenario affects agricultural growing seasons over the next twelve months is anyone's guess.

In New South Wales only the parishes of Newbold and Braylesford in the Clarence Valley are showing Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) at “Drought Affected”. 

Nevertheless, root-zone soil moisture has been falling across north-east NSW so that by end of April 2023 it was very much below average in from the coast. 

Remembering that drought 'safety net' Shannon Creek Dam, which supplies urban town water to both Coffs Harbour City and Clarence Valley resident populations (total 134,538 persons, June 2022) is currently at 92.6% capacity or 27,677 megalitres, perhaps we may see increased water restrictions by the next Christmas-New Year period. Given the tourist-driven seasonal population rise increases water consumption and that 80% dam capacity is the increased restrictions trigger.

It doesn't take a genius to suspect that should a drought develop, the 2024 and 2025 bush fire seasons might also be highly problematic for rural and regional areas across Australia.

World Meteorological Organization predicts one year in the next five will almost certainly be the hottest on record and there’s a 66% chance a single year will cross the crucial 1.5℃ global warming threshold

“….So what is driving the bleak outlook for the next five years? An expected El Niño, on top of the overall global warming trend, will likely push the global temperature to record levels. Has the Paris Agreement already failed if the global average temperature exceeds the 1.5℃ threshold in one of the next five years? No, but it will be a stark warning of what’s in store if we don’t quickly reduce emissions to net zero.” [Dr Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, School of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, writing in The Conversation on 17 May 2023]

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), media release, 17 May 2023:

Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years

Geneva, 17 May 2023 (WMO) – Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas.

There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceedance.

“Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the report.

Key points

> The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.

> The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.

> There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.

> The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.

> Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.

> Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.

Paris Agreement

In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather.

The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C, to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C.

The new report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress (22 May to 2 June) which will discuss how to strengthen weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation. Priorities for discussion at Congress include the ongoing Early Warnings for All initiative to protect people from increasingly extreme weather and a new Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to inform climate mitigation.

Ensemble mean forecast 2023-2027

Notes For Editors:

The Global Annual to Decadal Update is one of a suite of WMO climate products, including the flagship State of the Global Climate, which seek to inform policy-makers. WMO will release its provisional statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2023 at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP28, in December.

The UK’s Met Office acts as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to DecadalClimate Prediction. This year there are 145 ensemble members contributed by 11 different institutes to the predictions, which start at the end of 2022. Retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, covering the period 1960-2018 are used to estimate forecast skill.

Confidence in forecasts of global mean temperature is high since hindcasts show very high skill in all measures.

The forecasts shown here are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). It does not constitute an official forecast for any region or nation, but RCCs, RCOFs and NMHSs are encouraged to appropriately interpret and develop value-added forecasts from this Climate Update.

The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Excerpts from WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: Target years: 2023 and 2023-2027 specifically mentioning Australia:

• Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, relative to

the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of above average rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.

Near-surface temperatures in 2023 are likely to be higher than the 1991-2020 average in almost all regions except for Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and parts of Australia (Figure 7). Parts of the South Pacific Ocean are likely to be cooler than average. Skill is estimated from hindcasts to be medium or high in most regions (Figure 8) giving medium to high confidence in the forecast…..

This section shows predictions for the average of the next five extended seasons for May to September and November to March.

For the May to September average, predicted temperature patterns over the years 2023-2027 show a high probability of temperatures above the 1991-2020 average almost everywhere, with enhanced warming over land (Figure 9). Skill is very high in most regions, giving high confidence in this prediction (Figure 10). For the same season, sea-level pressure is predicted to be anomalously low over the Mediterranean and surrounding countries, and high over the maritime continent and surrounding countries.

There is medium skill for most of these regions, giving medium confidence.

Predictions of precipitation show wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and dry anomalies for this season over the Amazon and western Australia. Skill is low to medium for these regions, giving low to medium confidence.

For the November to March average over the years 2023/24-2027/28 (Figure 11), the predictions show warm anomalies are likely almost everywhere, with land temperatures showing larger anomalies than those over the ocean. The Arctic (north of 60°N) near-surface temperature anomaly is more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre shows negative anomalies, the so-called warming hole, which has been liked to a reduction in the AMOC. Skill is high in most regions apart from parts of the North Pacific, some areas in Asia, Australia, and the Southern Ocean (Figure 12), giving medium to high confidence…..

NOTE: My yellow highlighting throughout this post

When Clarence Valley Council tries to ignore the elephant in the room and local media with the best of intentions doesn't even see that enormous pachyderm

For reasons best known to itself, Clarence Valley Council administration has not publicly dotted the "i"s and crossed the "t"s for elected councillors and the Clarence Valley resident population when it comes to root causes of increased water turbidity and poor quality drinking water.

It's all about dirt. The deep soils and topsoils which cover and strengthen the rocks which hold Clarence River Basin mountains, hills and slopes in place; soils which are building blocks for both vegetation & biodiversity growth; soils which allow arable farming on valley floors big and small - including on the identified Clarence River floodplain.

The connection between clear-felled land, disturbed soils caused by mining, state-owned & private forestry, land laid bare by largescale wildfires, sloping land eroded by rain bombs, river banks scoured by record flooding, waterways thick with suspended soil particles and, a decline in water quality, is there for all to see. 

As is the poor stewardship of the NSW Government - which is supposed to ensure healthy waterways - but whose actions in allowing inappropriate levels of native vegetation removal, poorly monitoring mining exploration activity and its own continuous native timber forestry in sensitive catchments & sub-catchments is contributing to turbidity issues in north-east New South Wales.

It appear that absolutely no-one in the Perrottet Coalition Government is looking to address the root cause of water turbidity and erratic urban water quality. 

There appears to be a political blindness in 2023 to the following:

(i) the 2019-20 megafires started a process of exposing soils over wide areas of what had been closed and open forests in the Northern Rivers region;

 (ii) the further clearing of some of those fire grounds for retrievable native timber exacerbated this process; 

(iii) in 2022-23 the sensitivity and environmental risk associated with these forests is recognised as a continuing issue by the NSW Environmental Protection Agency - especially in areas where commercial native timber forestry is still occurring;

(iv) the 2022 extreme flooding increased the rate at which destabilised and/or degraded soils, particularly the exposed dispersive soils which create high levels of turbidity, made their way into streams, creeks, rivers and major waterways; and

(v) riverine landscapes do not have an infinite ability to withstand population pressure coupled with an increase in the frequency of natural or climate-induced disasters. The resilience Clarence River Basin waterways have demonstrated in the past does not guarantee their future capacity to experience recurrent disturbances while retaining essential function, structures and feedbacks.

A filtration plant may be advisable for urban water supplies, but it won't keep Clarence Valley waterways healthy, alive with biodiverse aquatic ecosystems and productive.

Ecotourism, water-based activity tourism and freshwater recreational fishing tourism, as well as the lucrative local wild-caught prawn industry, depend on healthy rivers. Rivers that are not just healthy but that can be seen to be healthy.

Examples of river and creek turbidity in the Clarence River catchment, 2022. IMAGES: The Daily Telegraph (top) Clarence Environment Centre (bottom) 

Clarence Valley Independent, 1 March 2023:

Future filtration for Valley water

Filtration of the Clarence Valley’s drinking water supply is again back on the agenda following this months Level Four severe water restrictions which lasted 11 days.

The Rushforth Road Water Treatment Plant RRWTP masterplan, which aims to replace the existing reservoir without impacting future construction of a filtration plant, is on the agenda at the February 28 Clarence Valley Council CVC meeting.

Prepared for council by consultant Beca H2O, the masterplan includes the replacement of the existing 32 megalitre reservoir, which is included in CVC’s 2022/2023 Operational Plan, and for future construction of filtration.

“It is recommended that Council progress the Masterplan by commencing the planning approval process for a future filtration plant at Rushforth Road Water Treatment Plant,” council papers state.

Council staff recommend councillors note the masterplan and commence the planning approval process for future construction of a filtration plant by calling open tenders to undertake an Environmental Impact Statement.

CVC first adopted a Drinking Water Management System DWMS at its August 19, 2014 meeting and an updated DWMS was adopted at the May 2020 meeting.

Up until the 1990s, drinking water was extracted regardless of turbidity, then in the early 1990s selective extraction was introduced to improve water quality when turbidity was below 10 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU).

Councils 2014 DWMS saw the turbidity level drop to 5 NTU, then the May 2020 DWMS further dropped the turbidity level to 3.5 NTU.

Currently, CVC water supplies are disinfected at Rushforth Road “by chloramination (adding ammonia to chlorine) as this provides the most stable disinfectant in lengthy pipeline systems because chloramines decay at a lower rate than free chlorine,” council papers state.

Tenders have been called for stage one of the masterplan which will see a 1.5 ML Chlorine Contact Tank and a 16ML Treated Water Storage Tank installed at the RRWTP, estimated to cost $14.7 million in October 2021.

“The provision of a Chlorine Contact Tank will allow the primary disinfection at Rushforth Road by free chlorination while, by adding ammonia after the contact tank, continue to provide for a chloramine residual in the lengthy pipeline network,” council papers state.

Stage two of the masterplan is the conceptual design for filtration to be constructed at the RRWTP and is estimated to cost $63.8 million, with an annual operating cost of $2.1 million.

“The Masterplan has confirmed that gravity flow through the plant is feasible, and all elements of the plant have been conceptually located so that the current plant (with the addition of the chlorine contact tank) can continue to operate during construction,” council papers state.

“Due to its construction cost the filtration plant is classified as State Significant Development, and therefore needs planning approval via an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS).

“It is recommended that Council commence the approval process for a future filtration plant by calling tenders to undertake an EIS.”

The last time council considered filtration at its April 15, 2014 meeting it was estimated the construction and operation of a filtration plant would add $275 annually to the typical residential bill.

“The drinking water risk is not assessed by the State Government as being high enough for funding assistance under the current Safe and Secure Water Program,” council papers state.

“The Rushforth Road water treatment has been allocated a risk score of “4”, while the program funding is currently only sufficient to provide assistance for projects with a risk score of “5”.”

Due to this situation, it is likely that CVC will require loans to fund the water filtration project.

 

And the tale of Rous County Council decision making under new pro-dam majority continues......

Echo, 21 February 2022: 

During last week’s Rous County Council (RCC) meeting, Cr Big Rob spoke of contact he had with Professor Stuart White regarding the proposed Dunoon Dam. 

 Professor White is the Director of the Institute for Sustainable Futures at UTS in Sydney where he leads a team of researchers who create change towards sustainable futures through independent, project-based research. 

 With over twenty years experience in sustainability research, Professor White’s work focuses on achieving sustainability outcomes at least cost for a range of government, industry and community clients across Australia and internationally. 

The Echo spoke to Professor White who made a late video submission to Rous that missed the deadline. A representative of Rous said it was too late to be screened in public access and was ‘forwarded to all Councillors on the morning of the Council meeting for their info’. The rep also mistakingly thought the video was a submission from the Northern Rivers Water Alliance who already had a space in Public Access. 

Rous County Council meeting 

During the meeting Cr Rob did not give Councillors all of the information he received from Professor White. 

At the meeting, Cr Rob said: ‘I circulated an email overnight relating to the experts that have been relied on – Professor Stuart White for example. You know, his position was the cost and when I made inquiries with Professor White, he finally agreed that yes, that dam should be considered. So if you take the cost out of it, then his position [is] all options on the table, the dam must be considered because that is one of the options.’ 

The Echo asked Professor White about his conversation with Cr Rob because Cr Rob’s comments seemed to be at odds with the information Professor White has been giving other interested parties. 

‘I have not spoken to Cr Big Rob,’ said Professor White. ‘I only had email correspondence. 

‘My position on the Dunoon Dam is clear and I’ve been public about it: it is too expensive, too risky, not useful for the purpose it is intended for, and not needed within the planning horizon. This is before considering the environmental and Aboriginal heritage risks.’ 

Time to rule out dam 

Professor White said that this does not mean the Dunoon Dam, or any supply option should not be considered and investigated alongside other options. ‘It is just that under any reasonable analysis it would be rejected. The proponents have already had a chance to make their case, at great public expense, and my view is that this case has not been made, so it is now reasonable to rule the Dunoon Dam option out.’ 

‘My understanding of the decision by Rous last year was to reject it primarily due to the Aboriginal heritage considerations, which are of course very important and remain very important.’ 

The Echo does not know if any Rous Councillors saw this submission before they voted 6 to 2 to put the dam back on the table.  [my yellow highlighting]

BACKGROUND

NORTH COAST VOICES, FRIDAY, 18 FEBRUARY 2022 

Rous County Council and that Dunoon Dam proposal now risen from the dead

Rous County Council and that Dunoon Dam proposal now risen from the dead

 

In 2014 Rous County Council (RCC) adopted its Future Water Strategy which recommended detailed investigations to assess the suitability of increased use of groundwater as a new water source, and if groundwater was not suitable, investigate complementary options such as water reuse and desalination.

After completion of this investigation Rous produced the original Future Water Project 2060 which did not prioritise groundwater use, reuse of already available water or building a desalination plant/s.

Instead it chose another option – the 50 gigalitre Dunoon Dam, with the concept design indicating an initial capital cost of approx. $220 million.

“In considering options for the future, Rous County Council conducted extensive assessments to weigh up environment, social and economic impacts. The result of these assessments indicate the Dunoon Dam is the preferred long-term water supply option when compared to demand management and water conservation, groundwater sources and water re-use”.

It is worth noting that the proposed Dunoon Dam would be the second dam on Rocky Creek thus further fragmenting this watercourse. The first water storage is Rocky Creek Dam which will continue to operate if the Dunoon Dam was built. Rocky Creek Dam does not have an outlet structure so it does not provide releases for downstream flows. [NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, 2020]

By 2020 this incredibly flawed second dam plan still relied on the widely discredited ‘offset’ scheme as a workaround for the widespread level of environmental destruction, significant biodiversity & species local population loss and, for the drowning of land sacred to the Widjabul Wia-bal People and the desecration of highly significant cultural sites.

Rous authorized preliminary investigation of the Dunoon Dam project in mid-2020 allocating a $100,000 operating budget.

However, the Widjabul Wia-bal, local residents in Lismore Shire and many people in the three other shires within Rous County Council (Byron, Ballina & Richmond Valley) remained concerned with Rous’ choice – the Future Water Project 2060 Public Exhibition Outcomes revealed that 90% of the 1,298 submissions received by 9 September 2020 expressed concerns about the Dunoon Dam proposal.

In March 2021 Rous was reconsidering its earlier Dunoon Dam decision and by 21 July it had voted 5 to 3 to remove the Dunoon Dam from its Future Water Project 2060. At that time a second public exhibition from 1 April to 24 May 2021, this time of the revised Future Water Project 2060, was put in place which resulted in an RCC digital file of supporting submissions 1,754 pages long and confirmed that voiced public opinion was still against building the Dunoon Dam.

By 16 December 2021 Rous County Council had authorised “the General Manager to cease all work on the Dunoon Dam and provide a report on the orderly exit from Dunoon Dam as an option in the future water project, including revocation of zoning entitlements and disposal of land held for the purpose of the proposed Dunoon Dam”.

There the matter should have rested, but after the December 2021 local government elections there was a changing of the guard at Rous Water and six of the eight current sitting RCC councillors are pro-dam.

This led to the unedifying sight on 16 February 2022, of Rous County Council by a vote of 6 to 2 vote reinserting the Dunoon Dam proposal into the revised Future Water Project 2060. No genuine forewarning of what that first RCC meeting of 2022 would contain, no prior consultation with Widjabul Wia-ba elders on the Item 12.1 motion, no community consultation.

The community scrambled to respond. So on the day RCC did hear objections to Item 12.1 from Hugh Nicholson, a previous Chair of Rous Country Council and Friends of the Koala representative Ros Irwin.

A young Widjabul Wia-ba woman, Skye Roberts, addressed the councillors as a “custodian” of the land. She spoke with conviction, determination and, clearly informed all present that: the proposed dam was sited within the large tract of land between three ancient mountains and that land was “sacred land” to all the Widjabul Wia-ba; this included Channon Gorge, the waters that ran through it and the wider dam site; the stone burial mounds which would be submerged by dam waters were part of the circle of cultural connection between land and people; men’s places & women’s places were on land to be flooded; and that land connects to living culture.

The message she carried for her grandmother and mother fell on predominately deaf ears and it was ‘ugly Australia’ which voted the dam back into future planning on that Wednesday in February.

Rous County Council already has before it the Ainsworth Heritage “Dunoon Dam: Preliminary Cultural Heritage Impact Assessment for Rous Water, May 2013” which can be read in digital form or downloaded from:

https://issuu.com/jwtpublishing/docs/ainsworth-heritage-preliminary-cultural-heritage-i.

It also has before it the SMEC “Dunoon Dam Terrestrial Ecology Impact Assessment, Prepared for Rous Water November 2011”. An assessment of which can be found at:

https://waternorthernrivers.org/ecological-impact/

For a brief summary of some of the technical flaws in the Dunoon Dam preliminary investigation:

Dunoon Dam: 4 Risks & Considerations by Water Expert Professor Stuart White - Feb 2022

 

NSW National Party - determined as ever to ignore the rights of traditional owners and vulnerable biodiverse landscapes - are investigating dam & diversion options in northern coastal river catchments

Rous County Council - which has bulk water supply responsibilities across the Ballina, Byron, Lismore City and Richmond Valley local government areas - in a 5 to 3 vote put aside the 253ha Dunoon Dam proposal for the next four to five years to enable comprehensive talks to occur with Widjabul Wia-bal traditional owners before going back into the plan.

Instead, it is exploring groundwater and recycling options with the aim of securing water supplies by 2024-2030.

However, there are objections to this course of action within the county council and in the broader community, along with disturbing echoes of colonial racism.

Section of the Channon Gorge, the proposed site of the Dunoon Dam wall
IMAGE: David Lowe

The proposed Dunoon Dam would be the second dam in the Rocky Creek sub-catchment, which if it becomes the preferred option would leave only approx. 4 kms as the crow flies between these two bodies of stored water.

North Coast Voices readers will probably not be surprised to find that NSW Nationals MLA for Clarence, former property developer & mining consultant Chris Gulaptis, the Nationals  MLC for Bathurst small business owner & recent undeclared candidate for Leader of the Nationals Sam Farraway and, Nationals candidate for the Lismore electorate in the last state election Austin Curtain, all support inundating a river valley to build this dam and including this proposal in the long-term regional water strategy.

The Echo, Letters, 3 November 2021:

If councillors in favour of the Dunoon Dam (DuD) are elected in December we will see several things happen.

Water resilience will collapse. The ‘10,000 signatures’, on which the pro-dam candidates base their political stance, demanded that all options be taken off the table, except for a second dam on a small creek: being completely dependent on increasingly erratic rainfall flowing through that small creek would intensify our climate risk.

Water shortages would be incurred soon because demand exceeds supply in three years, but the dam could not possibly be built until at least 2030.

Local jobs, which would have been boosted by diverse water options and long-term conservation measures (eg large-scale refitting), would be axed in favour of a short-term boost to a huge non-local company to build a dam.

Water rates would escalate rapidly to pay for a large one-off project. Government contributions are unlikely, leaving current ratepayers to foot the bill. The poorest people would be paying the most because water is non-discretionary, like food.

The Widjabul Wia-Bal people would be told, yet again, that their opinion does not matter. The burial sites, which have been compared by the Native Title Services Corp to the Juukan Cave in WA, would be lost. The living heritage of our own citizens would be discarded.

The Endangered Ecological Community of Lowland Rainforest, part of the remaining one per cent of the Big Scrub, would be severely reduced. In The Channon Gorge, the rare warm temperate rainforest on sandstone would be almost completely destroyed.

Opposition to the DuD, including direct action, would escalate, causing increased social division and unrest. When a large dubious project lacks social licence, the outcomes for local politicians pushing the project are never good.

There are plenty of alternatives to the DuD but the pro-dam candidates are going for the least efficient, most expensive, slowest, and most reckless option for water in the future.

We can have more water more cheaply and more quickly without needing a dam or groundwater; just by water efficiencies alone. But the pro-dam ideologues are not interested.

We have a problem here with local would-be politicians who want to capitalise on anxiety about water in order to score political points. They are not genuinely interested in water security. This is easily proved by their refusal to discuss anything other than one unrealistic and unsafe option.

There is a terrific opportunity here to pull together to solve our water problems. It may be lost owing to the political ambitions of a few cynical dog-whistlers.

Nan Nicholson, The Channon

ABC News, 4 October 2021:

Australia's national science agency is to investigate how to best manage the NSW far north coast's long-term water supply and river health.

The state's Water Minister, Melinda Pavey, has announced that scientists from the CSIRO will provide independent advice reviewing options proposed in last year's draft Far North Coast Regional Water Strategy.

"It developed from a lot of conversations around the strategy and a view from some community members that we haven't dealt enough with issues in relation to flood mitigation and water quality on north coast rivers, as well as long-term future supply for an area with a strong population and a lot of rainfall," Ms Pavey said.

The review will look at water security and flood risk management, particularly for the flood-prone city of Lismore.

"This will be really important foundational work that could be relevant to other parts of NSW," she said

Keith Williams, chair of regional water supplier Rous County Council, has welcomed the study and believes it will dovetail with council's existing priorities outlined in the Northern Rivers Watershed Initiative.

"About what we can do to decrease downstream flooding and a lot of that involves trying to re-establish wetlands, replanting river banks that exclude stock, and generally slowing water down within the landscape," he said.

"To have the CSIRO helping with that work would be fantastic. I don't see any threat to Rous from further scientific studies; we would welcome it."

Study will include Dunoon Dam option

Ms Pavey confirmed that a new dam at Dunoon would be included in the study.

A majority of Rous County councillors voted earlier this year to shelve the dam option from its future water strategy.

Robert Mustow, who was one of three councillors who advocated for the dam option to remain in the mix, welcomed the CSIRO input….

"This study will now reveal everything and it will be scientific-based and that's how it should have been to start with."

The CSIRO work is expected to be completed within a year.

What Minister Pavey is careful not to mention is that this 'review' is likely to be used to bolster the NSW Perrottet Government's preference to increase the size of the Shannon Creek Dam in the Clarence River catchment area [Draft North Coast Regional Water Strategy, "Long List of Options", March 2021] in order to allow the Coffs Harbour City LGA to increase its water draw from the Nymboida River and this large side dam (these being Coffs Harbour's only source of urban water) AND at the same time allow yet another local government area outside the catchment area to draw water via the Shannon Creek Dam. Thereby placing an unsustainable water draw of the Nymboida sub-catchment for a combined est. resident population of 142,519 persons [ID Community Demographic Resources, 2020].

BACKGROUND

EchoNetDaily, 14 December 2020:

Widjabul Wia-bal traditional owners of the area between Dunoon and the Channon have told Rous County Council not to follow Rio Tinto with the destructive Dunoon Dam.

They have told the General Manager of Rous County Council, Phil Rudd, that they will not accept the building of the proposed dam, which would inundate ancient burial sites and extensive evidence of occupation in the past and in recent times.

John Roberts, a Senior Elder of the Widjabul Wia-bal said, ‘I was one of the stakeholders consulted in 2011 about the impact of the Dunoon Dam on cultural heritage.

‘In the 2011 Cultural Heritage Impact Assessment prepared for Rous, we stakeholders said with one voice that no level of disturbance was acceptable to us. We still say that. Nothing has changed. There is no need for another study. Our opinion has not changed.

‘Our cultural heritage is a direct connection to our ancestors. We have been here for thousands of years. These sites provide us with a link to our traditions, our land and our living heritage. They allow us to educate our young ones in their history.’....

Echo, 22 July 2021:

Proposed Dunoon Dam, now scrapped. Rous County Council.

Dunoon Dam divides councils

The council itself is almost evenly divided: the traditionally more conservative Richmond Valley Council representatives further south want to consider a dam (and also want to connect Casino up to the Rous County Council water supply) while Byron’s representatives in the north are publicly opposed to the dam and Lismore’s progressives have cited concerns over cultural heritage.

Ballina is less cohesively represented in the Rous County Council, with each of the shire’s two representatives taking opposing sides on the dam idea....

The Daily Telegraph, 4 August 2021, p.11:

Lismore Mayor Vanessa Ekins said lobbying the NSW and federal governments to force the Dunoon Dam back into Rous’s Water Future Strategy was a political manoeuvre by conservative councillors and MPs ahead of upcoming elections.

“I think there is a bit of local lobbying going on, people are gearing up for an election and trying to position themselves with a little project,” Ms Ekins (pictured) said.

“(The dam) doesn’t relate to the science, technical expertise and decades of thought and work that has gone into coming out with the Future Water Strategy…..

SMEC Australia Pty Ltd, Dunoon Dam Terrestrial Ecology Impact Assessment*, November 2011:

One endangered ecological community (EEC), Lowland Rainforest which is listed under the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 (TSC Act), was recorded during field investigations. In addition, nine flora and 17 fauna species (including one frog, one mammal, one fruit-bat, six microbats and eight birds) listed as threatened in NSW under the TSC Act were also recorded. Of these species, eight flora and one fauna species are also listed nationally under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act). An additional seven fauna species listed as migratory or marine under the EPBC Act as well as two Rare or Threatened Australian Plants (RoTAP) and three regionally significant plant species were also recorded.

Note:

* SMEC, a member of the Surbana Jurong Group, is a global engineering, management and development consultancy. SMEC field studies were undertaken in April 2010 - October 2010 and targeted threatened species within the study area.