Down Under: Yes, we are causing our own climate change

 

ScienceDaily (May 17, 2012) — In the first study of its kind in Australasia, scientists have used 27 natural climate records to create the first large-scale temperature reconstruction for the region over the last 1000 years….

Lead researcher, Dr Joelle Gergis from the University of Melbourne said the results show that there are no other warm periods in the last 1000 years that match the warming experienced in Australasia since 1950.

"Our study revealed that recent warming in a 1000 year context is highly unusual and cannot be explained by natural factors alone, suggesting a strong influence of human-caused climate change in the Australasian region," she said…..

 

American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate 2012 ; e-View:

Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium

Joëlle Gergis,¹ Raphael Neukom,¹ Steven J. Phipps,^2,3 Ailie J. E. Gallant,¹ David J. Karoly,¹ and PAGES Aus2K Project Members^†

1 School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia

2 Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

3 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

Abstract

This study presents the first multi-proxy warm season (September-February) temperature reconstruction for the combined land and oceanic region of Australasia (0°S-50°S, 110°E-180°E). We perform a 3000-member ensemble Principal Component Reconstruction (PCR) using 27 temperature proxies from the region. The proxy network explained 69% of the inter-annual variance in the HadCRUT3v SONDJF spatial mean temperature over the 1921-1990 calibration period. Applying eight stringent reconstruction 'reliability' metrics identified post A.D. 1430 as the highest quality section of the reconstruction, but also revealed a skilful reconstruction is possible over the full A.D. 1000-2001 period.

The average reconstructed temperature anomaly in Australasia during A.D. 1238-1267, the warmest 30-year pre-instrumental period, is 0.09°C (±0.19°C) below 1961-1990 levels. Following peak pre-industrial warmth, a cooling trend culminates in a temperature anomaly of 0.44°C (±0.18°C) below 1961-1990 levels between A.D. 1830-1859. A preliminary assessment of the roles of solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings and natural ocean-atmosphere variability is performed using CSIRO Mk3L model simulations and independent palaeoclimate records. Solar and volcanic forcing does not have a marked influence on reconstructed Australasian temperature variations, which appear to be masked by internal variability.

In 94.5% of the 3000-member reconstruction ensemble, there are no other warm periods in the past 1,000 years that match or exceed post-1950 warming observed in Australasia. The unusual 20th century warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone, suggesting a strong influence of anthropogenic forcing in the Australasian region

^† Aus2K project member data and other contributions from Kathryn Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Matthew Brookhouse, Edward Cook, Louise Cullen, Mark Curran, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Pavla Fenwick, Anthony Fowler, Ian Goodwin, Pauline Grierson, Erica Hendy, Braddock Linsley, Janice Lough, Andrew Lorrey, Helen McGregor, Andrew Moy, Jonathan Palmer, Christopher Plummer, Chris Turney, Tessa Vance, Tas Van Ommen and Limin Xiong.

Corresponding author: Dr Joëlle Gergis, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, AUSTRALIA. Email: jgergis@unimelb.edu.au

20.500 ways to feel the Earth move

Click on image to enlarge

Edge-on View of Near-Earth Asteroids

New results from NASA's NEOWISE survey find that more potentially hazardous asteroids, or PHAs, are closely aligned with the plane of our solar system than previous models suggested. PHAs are the subset of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with the closest orbits to Earth's orbit, coming within 5 million miles (about 8 million kilometers). They are also defined as being large enough to survive passage through Earth's atmosphere and cause damage on a regional, or greater, scale.

This diagram shows an edge-on view of our solar system. The dots represent a snapshot of the population of NEAs and PHAs that scientists think are likely to exist based on the NEOWISE survey. Positions of a simulated population of PHAs on a typical day are shown in bright orange, and the simulated NEAs are blue. Earth's orbit is green.

The diagram shows that the orbits of the PHAs tend to be more closely aligned with the plane of our solar system, or less tilted above and below the plane, than the NEAs. This characteristic of PHAs was known before the NEOWISE survey. Now, NEOWISE has found the PHAs to be about twice as likely to have these "lower-inclination" orbits than previously thought.

To make these estimates, the NEOWISE project observed a small portion of the total PHA and NEA populations. The survey not only looked at the objects' orbits but also their total numbers and physical properties such as size. The latest results provide the best count yet of the total PHA population, finding about 4,700 plus or minus 1,500, with diameters larger than 330 feet (about 100 meters). These numbers are in loose agreement with prior, rougher predictions. The NEOWISE team estimates that about 20 to 30 percent of the PHAs thought to exist have actually been discovered to date.

In an earlier study, NEOWISE estimated that there are about 20,500 near-Earth asteroids larger than 330 feet, fewer than previous estimates.

NEOWISE is the asteroid-hunting portion of NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, mission, which scanned the entire sky twice in infrared light before entering hibernation mode in 2011.

Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Was Bronwyn having another bad hair day yesterday?

Not content with getting her marching orders from the House of Representatives earlier in the day, Bronwyn Bishop (the Member for Mackellar and former Minister for 'Kerosene Baths') fiddled with the truth when she spoke in the chamber later in the day yesterday.

Bronwyn Bishop (Mackellar) (18:49): ... I have had conversations with people who had abided by the previous scheme and kept their receipts and claimed them. They actually got more money back than they will get out of the cash splash, which the government has dressed up as an education bonus but requires no evidence of being spent on education at all.

Bishop was referring to the SchoolKids Bonus and what she failed to do was tell the whole story.

In a previous post clarencegirl pointed out:

"the federal government website states; The Education Tax Refund provides up to 50% back on a range of children's education expenses.

For the 2010–11 tax year refunds may be as much as $397 for every child at primary school, and up to $794 for every child at secondary school. The amount of the refund increases each year by the Consumer Price Index. In the 2011-12 tax year your refund could be as much as $409 for primary kids and $818 for secondary students.

While Budget Paper No. 2 states; From January 2013, every family with a child at school will be guaranteed $410 per annum for each primary school student and $820 per annum for each secondary school student. All eligible families will receive the full rate of payment and will no longer need to keep receipts as proof of expense, or wait until tax time. Eligibility for the payment will remain open to families with children enrolled and attending school who are in receipt of Family Tax Benefit Part A (FTB A) or other qualifying income support payments or allowances under a prescribed educational scheme that precludes the family from receiving FTB A. [my red bolding throughout]

Seems Ms Bishop was speaking with well-heeled constituents who are going to miss out on the bonus because ... are you ready for the truth? ... they don't qualify for it. And why don't they qualify for it? Their earnings are such that won't get it because they don't need it.

Really, what Bishop was doing was speaking to prop up middle class welfare spending that should be given the drop-kick more often.

When political spin turns to reputation shred

From the sharp eye of Jonathan Green and Ash's Machiavellian Bloggery on 18 May 2012:

Kelly O’Dwyer and Senator Abetz started their spin cycle early. Kelly tweeted this with the caption “A picture paints a thousand words”.
@KellyODwyer: A picture says a thousand words twitpic.com/9m6no4 (pic below)

.

Terrible isn’t it? On the surface it looks like another small business struggling in the patchwork economy. Another black mark for the government?
Kelly went on to tweet more “detail” to this picture.
@KellyODwyer: Business downsizes from 2 shops to 1. reduces staff from 3 to 0. Owner unhappy with Gillard Gov policy IR, Super and Carbon Tax
Well thankfully a little check of a website by one @greenj revealed a little different picture. And it seems Kelly has been a little negligent with the truth.
http://allpress-antiques.com.au/documents/2031-Shop2

Shop2

Please click on any of the photos below to see all of the stock in Shop2
Recently my original showroom, three doors down (1425 Malvern Road), became available again and as I hold the lease I’ve stocked it until relet.
Over the last four years I’ve been wanting to open another shop but not in Malvern as the mix of industrial, retro, glass and unusual items doesn’t quite fit this area.
I have called it Shop2 and will until further notice.

Shop2 is closing down as most stock is sold and now subletting, so having a clearance sale!

“Over the last four years I’ve been wanting to open another shop but not in Malvern as the mix of industrial, retro, glass and unusual items doesn’t quite fit this area“. That’s what he said. Nothing about the carbon tax, IR policy, or Super. More about location, location, location!
Yeah that’s right! The shop is not ‘closing’ down, but having a clearance sale because business has been so good, they have run out of stock!
Thank you Julia!
And yes Kelly. A picture really does say a thousand words. A thousand words for fake come to mind.

Let's Get Julia & Bob! Email campaign from a wingnut pen

CHINA........ interesting information is the title of an anonymous email bashing China, the Australian Greens and the Gillard Government currently doing the rounds – a combination which is obviously delighting a politically ignorant and xenophobic element of society. It finishes by calling for an end to the carbon tax:

You are wasting your time and ours with your carbon tax.

All you are doing is increasing our cost of living and rendering our manufacturers uncompetitive.

It will make no difference when countries like China are consuming at these extraordinary rates.

Here is an example of the often contradictory ‘facts’ this email contains:

China is currently the number one producer in the world of wind and solar power. But don’t use it themselves.

This is the reality:

Global Wind Energy Council

China’s wind power generation market is mainly shared among the ’Big Five’ power producers and several other major state-owned enterprises. These firms account for more than 80% of the total wind power market. The largest wind power operators, Guodian (Longyuan Electric Group), Datang and Huaneng expanded their capacity by 1-2 GW each during the year, while Huadian, Guohua and China Guangdong Nuclear Power are following close behind…..

The first offshore wind power demonstration project, which is also the first offshore wind project outside of Europe, the Shanghai Donghai Bridge Offshore wind farm, began generating power in June 2010……

The breathtaking growth of the Chinese wind energy industry has been driven primarily by national renewable energy policies. The first Renewable Energy Law entered into force in 2006, and gave huge momentum to the development of renewable energy. In 2007, the first implementation rules for the law emerged, giving further impetus to wind energy development. In addition, the “Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Renewable Energy in China” from 2007 set out the government’s long term commitment and put forward national renewable energy targets, policies and measures for implementation, including a mandatory market share of 1% of non-hydro renewable energy in the total electricity mix by 2010 and 3% by 2020.

In 2009, the Renewable Energy Law was amended to introduce a requirement for grid operators to purchase a certain fixed amount of renewable energy. The amendment also requires grid companies to absorb the full amount of renewable power produced, also giving them the option of applying for subsidies from a new “Renewable Energy Fund” to cover the extra cost related to integrating renewable power if necessary.

China starts vital UHV lines to carry wind power from its west  

Published: Monday, May 14 2012. Hami is one of China’s major coal producing regions, and is also home to some of the country’s biggest wind farms.

The line, which will be more than 2,000km long, will have a transmission capacity of 8GW and is expected to be completed by 2014.

A second 750kV UHV DC line will link Xinjiang with the main network of the Northwest China Grid, carrying wind and solar power generated in Hami, Jiuquan city in Gansu province, and Qaidam basin in Qinghai to the rest of the country. It is scheduled to complete in September 2013.

China plans to build 19 major UHV lines – including alternating and direct current links – under its 12th five-year plan. Eleven of these aim to help wind power transmission.

Solar power installations across China

JinkoSolar supplies more than 15 percent of solar power capacity of one of the richest regions of solar energy in China

SHANGHAI, Jan. 18, 2012 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. ("JinkoSolar" or the "Company") (NYSE: JKS), a fast-growing, vertically integrated solar power product manufacturer based in China, recently announced that the 18 MW project developed by China Guangdong Nuclear Solar Energy Development Co., Ltd.(CGN-SEDC) is now connected to the grid. JinkoSolar provided all the modules for this project in Dunhuang, Gansu Province in west China.

Located in the solar base of China Guangdong Nuclear Power Company in Dunhuang, the solar power plant covers an area of 400,000 square meters and JinkoSolar provided all 76,000 modules for the installation.

With an annual average sunshine time of 3,362 hours, the city of Dunhuang is recognized by experts as a world-class solar-rich region. At the same time, convenient power transmission in the region has provided a guarantee for the rapid growth of photovoltaic grid connection systems……

China realizes world's biggest carbon emission cut

Xinhua, November 26, 2011.  Although China has become a major carbon emitter, it has realized the biggest carbon emission reduction across the world, said a press release from the report's research team on Saturday.

China Outpaces U.S. in Cleaner Coal-Fired Plants

New York Times May 11, 2009. China has emerged in the past two years as the world’s leading builder of more efficient, less polluting coal power plants, mastering the technology and driving down the cost…..

China has begun requiring power companies to retire an older, more polluting power plant for each new one they build.

China Energy Consumption Rises at Fastest Pace in Four Years

Bloomberg News - Feb 22, 2012. Total energy use by the world’s second-biggest economy rose to the equivalent of 96.66 thousand trillion British thermal units, according to conversion rates from China’s government and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The U.S. consumed 97.88 thousand trillion, according to the EIA’s Feb. 7 Short- Term Energy Outlook Report.

Excerpt from Population and Energy Consumption by Country in 2010

Country: click to compare to USA	PopulationEnergy consumption Hover over bar for actual data
	Percent of global total
China
India
USA
Russian Federation
Japan

Population data source: Population Reference Bureau; 2007 World Population Data Sheet.

Energy data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 2007.

James Ashby sends it all to Twitter and Scribd

Anthony J McClellan‏@antmac9

#slipper Ashby Statement coming shortly #auspol

7:03 PM - 17 May 12 via Tweetbot for iOS · Embed this Tweet

It would appear that Twitter and Scribd are being used to bypass the mainstream media in all matters pertaining to James Ashby v Commonwealth of Australia & Anor.

Letter to AHRC Re Bob Carr and Barnaby Joyce Sent 17 May 2012

 

Who is this spinmeister? According to The Power Index it is:

 

Anthony McClellan – Managing director, AMC Media
The former 60 Minutes veteran is now one of the most respected crisis management specialists in the country. Tough and competitive, McClellan represented Kristy Fraser-Kirk in her legal battle with David Jones and mine managers during the rescue operation at Beaconsfield.

AEC takes the ground out from under Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's allegations regarding Thomson's campaign funding

AEC releases analysis of Fair Work Australia report 16 May 2012

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) today released its analysis of the information contained in the Report of the Delegate to the General Manager of Fair Work Australia – “Investigation into the National Office of the Health Services Union under section 331 of the Fair Work (Registered Organisations) Act 2009” (the FWA Report) dated 28 March 2012 against the reporting obligations contained in the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (Electoral Act).

• Read the AEC’s full analysis report [PDF 303KB]

Part XX of the Electoral Act sets out the obligations of individuals and organisations for disclosure, the time at which disclosures need to be made, the thresholds that apply to disclosure and the types of expenditure and donations that must be disclosed. In broad terms:

• Disclosure obligations fall on Mr Thomson as a candidate, the HSU National Office and the NSW Branch of the Australian Labor Party. The Electoral Act sets out separate reporting obligations for each of these entities
• Reporting obligations on new candidates in relation to donations used for election purposes arise only after a candidate is pre-selected as a candidate for an election – in Mr Thomson’s case this was after 13 April 2007
• Reporting obligations on candidates for political expenditure arise only in respect of amounts expended during the election period (i.e. after issue of the writ – which occurred on 17 October 2007 for the 2007 election) and apply only to certain types of expenditure generally in the nature of political advertising
• HSU National Office has reporting obligations both as a donor and a third party incurring political expenditure. These reporting obligations arise over several years from 2006 to 2008
• The relevant branch of the political party which endorses the candidate, in this case the ALP NSW Branch, is responsible for reporting on political campaign expenses
• Thresholds apply to the reporting of details of donations and political expenditure. The thresholds that were in place during the period covered by the FWA report were $10,300 for the 2006-2007 financial year and $10,500 for the 2007-2008 financial year

The AEC has examined the disclosure returns made by all relevant parties in relation to the period covered by the FWA Report. The AEC notes that few of the individual transactions reported in Chapter 7 of the FWA Report exceeded the respective disclosure thresholds applying for the 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 financial years.

Accordingly detailed disclosure of the particulars set out in subsection 314AC(3) of the Electoral Act (e.g. the name and address of donors) would not, therefore, have been required on the returns lodged by either the HSU National Office or by the ALP NSW Branch. However, some items of expenditure that have been identified would have been required to be incorporated into the total of all amounts received or paid in the 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 annual returns of the HSU National Office and of the ALP NSW Branch. Inquiries have been made to establish whether that has occurred.

In relation to the amounts listed at paragraph 197 of the FWA Report the following table sets out their status under the Electoral Act.

Expense	Amount	Disclosure to the AEC
Establishment of the Campaign Office	$4,826.99	Under the threshold - Further information sought to establish whether disclosed by ALP NSW or HSU
Payments to Dobell FEC	$3,500.00	Under the threshold - Further information sought to establish whether disclosed by ALP NSW or HSU
Campaign bus	$1,277.96	Under the threshold - Further information sought to establish whether disclosed by the ALP NSW or HSU
Postage expenses	$9,574.17	Disclosed by the HSU National Office
Payments to LBH Promotions	$7,409.93	Under the threshold - Further information sought to determine whether disclosed by HSU
ALP advertising	$12,511.40	Disclosed by HSU National Office
Radio advertising	$18,731.00	Disclosed by HSU National Office
Printing expenses	$13,468.78	Disclosed by HSU National Office
Total	$71,300.23

Accordingly, of the above amounts, the AEC is currently seeking further information about four items of expenditure which total $17,014.88. The other amounts identified at paragraph 197 of the FWA Report have been disclosed.

In relation to amounts expended on the employment of Ms Crisalee Stevens and Mr Mathew Burke, paragraph 119 of Chapter 1 of the FWA Report indicates that their salaries were included in the HSU National Office third party expenditure returns for 2006-2007 and 2007-2008.

There is no requirement under the Electoral Act for disclosure by Mr Thomson in relation to the Central Coast Rugby League as the payments occurred outside the disclosure period as defined in the Act.

Expenditure in relation to Dads in Education Father’s Day Breakfast, Golden Years Collectables and Central Coast Convoy for Kids each fall below the threshold established by the Act for reporting.

Media contact

Phil Diak | Director Media
AEC, Canberra
02 6271 4435
0413 452 539media@aec.gov.au

Excerpt from the AEC report:

Amounts received

The “disclosure period” is defined in subsection 287(1) of the Electoral Act and paragraph (c) applies to Mr Thomson as he was not a candidate for the 2004 election. Mr Thomson was pre-selected as the ALP candidate for Dobell on 13 April 2007. Therefore, any “gift” that was received prior to that date (e.g. the services of Ms Stevens and Mr Burke) was not required to be disclosed by either Mr Thomson or his candidate agent. The schema in the Electoral Act does not recognise that the expenditure of funds to raise the profile on a person in an electorate prior to that person actually being endorsed by a registered political party could be categorised as being for the benefit of the registered political party that subsequently endorsed the person as their candidate. As already stated, the Electoral Act does not apply to the pre-selection of new candidates or expenditure that they have incurred before they are actually endorsed by a registered political party.

Expenditure incurred

Similarly the “electoral expenditure” that is required to be disclosed by a candidate or their agent is regulated by sections 308 and 309 of the Electoral Act. These provisions limit the disclosure requirement to expenditure during the “election period” which is defined in subsection 287(1) of the Electoral Act as the period between the issuing of the writs for the 2007 general election (17 October 2007) and the polling day on 24 November 2007. Further, the actual items of electoral expenditure which are required to be disclosed are limited to those items set out in subsection 308(1) of the Electoral Act. In general terms, subsection 308(1) limits any reporting obligation to expenditure incurred on electoral advertising which takes place during the “election period”.

An email received by North Coast Voices from one reader raises a concern about media reporting on the $17,014.88 which was under the reporting threshold:

[Address redacted]

The majority of newspapers have left an impression that there is something still "dodgy" about Craig Thompson and his electoral funding to the amount of $17000.
But I got a different impression when  I read this report http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/05/16/most-thomsons-spendings-ok-aec/

I just thought I would send it to you in relation to clarencegirl’s opinion piece on Oakshott and him already deciding something has to be done.

Anyway thank you
I love your blog

[Name redacted]