The state of the Australian economy confuses the average voter?

It rather beggars belief that so many political commentators have been talking down the Australian economy for the last five years, when overall that same economy has been the envy of the developed world during that same period.

It seems that hardly a week has gone by when somewhere in the national media there hasn’t been a journalist reporting economic doom and gloom, aided and abetted by various Liberal and National Party politicians.

Yet in 2013 gross government debt stands at a comparatively modest $271 billion by international standards and net government debt is estimated at $145 billion to date in Australia as the world’s 12th  largest economy. The nation still has GDP growth, a budget deficit of around 1 per cent of GDP or less, an across the board AAA international credit rating, low inflation, low unemployment and is considered a safe haven for investors.

To say that this disconnect between negatively-coloured reporting and verifiable fact may have led to voter ambivalence is positing the obvious and it can possibly be seen in this survey.

Between Wednesday 1 May and Sunday 5 May 2013 an estimated 1,000+ survey respondents answered questions concerning the Australian economy and, their replies were published as part of the broader Essential Report on 6 May 2013.

These respondents were drawn from among the same 7,000-8,000 people who have been answering this regular Essential Services survey for years.

What is interesting about this latest report is the respondents answers to questions about government debt.

In one question 25% think that Australia’s national debt is higher than other developed countries and 48% think it is lower – 18% think it about the same.

In another 46% think the main reason for Australia’s national debt is that the Government are poor economic managers. 26% think it is due to the world economy and 17% blame the high Australian dollar.

However, in yet another question 39% think that government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies has been good/very good and 32% think it has been poor/very poor.

While the conclusion arrived at in the final question was that 32% trust Wayne Swan more to handle Australia’s economy and 35% trust Joe Hockey more. With those on incomes under $1,000pw favour Wayne Swan 34%/31% while those earning over $1,000pw favour Joe Hockey 37%/32%.

So while the biggest percentage blocs in two questions realized that Australia’s national debt was lower than most other developed countries and considered that the Gillard Government's management of the economy was good to very good in comparison with the rest of the world - at the same time the biggest percentage bloc in another question decided that the federal government’s poor economic management was the root cause of the national debt.

Leading to the untried Opposition Shadow Joe Hockey being seen by three per cent more respondents as being better trusted when it came to handling the Australian economy than Treasurer Wayne Swan and, that 3% looking suspiciously like a group earning over $1,000 per week.

It would appear that five years of relentless negative comment in the media may have left many unable to reconcile political rhetoric with Treasury’s annual economic data and, choosing to believe the former rather than the latter much of the time.

* Graph from ABC News

No worker will be worse off under our industrial relations policy. Now where have I heard that before?

 

Australian Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (former Minister for Employment Services and  Minister for Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business  in the Howard Government) on the subject of the Coalition’s industrial relations policy on 9 May 2013:

Australian Coalition Prime Minister John Howard on the subject of the Coalition’s industrial relations policy in 1996:

In 2007 over twelve months after the introduction of the Coalition Government’s Work Choices industrial relations legislation and regulations:

 

* on average across the country, workers on AWAs earned 3 per cent less than workers on collective agreements. Outside Western Australia, the shortfall was 10 per cent.

 

* Some of Australia's 1.7 million retail and hospitality workers have lost up to a third of their incomes since the introduction of Work Choices laws, a new study has found.

 

The Coalition’s current May 2013 industrial relations policy document here.

Electoral Commission announces 14 September 2013 referendum on local government recognition in the Australian Constitution

 

AEC Announcement 9 May 2013:

 

The Government has announced that it is planning to hold a referendum on recognition of local government in the Australian Constitution at the same time as the federal election planned for 14 September 2013. The Australian Electoral Commission will be making the necessary preparations to conduct the referendum ballot with the election.

This forthcoming national referendum will be the forty-fifth since Federation and the second time voters have been asked to consider recognising local government in the Australia Constitution.

On the first occasion in July 1988 the referendum failed, as only 33.62% of voters wanted local government recognised and therefore there was no majority in any of the mandatory five out of six states required for it to pass.

Voting in a referendum is compulsory and, in a better world than this, the question would be framed in such a way that future regional local governments on the NSW North Coast and across the nation would be able to resist being turned into no more than powerless ciphers of successive city-centric state governments.

Unfortunately the intention of the referendum is not to remove the power of state governments to legislate in relation to local councils, neither is it to lessen the risk that state governments will reduce local autonomy even further, nor is it to take from the states their powers to impose compulsory amalgamations on residents and ratepayers.

What is being offered is the formal inclusion of local government in Section 96 of the Constitution so that the Commonwealth may directly grant financial assistance to councils on such terms and conditions as the Parliament thinks fit.

Much in the same manner as it does now under certain federal government funding programs, but without the ongoing uncertainty created by a successful constitutional challenge in 2012.

The principal reasons for this referendum can be found in Chapter 2 of the Joint Select Committee on Constitutional Recognition of Local Government's Final Report (7 March 2013)

How fast will your Gillard Government NBN fibre to the premises connection be when compared with the Abbott-Turnbull fibre to the street scheme? Find our here

Go to http://howfastisthenbn.com.au/ and run the test yourself. 

Labor's NBN uploads and downloads can happen in seconds. Coalition's NBN is going to be excruciatingly slow in comparison.

Does Tony Abbott thinks that Alan Jones' radio audience can't read and will not notice yet another political lie?

Obviously relying on the probability that Alan Jones 2GB radio audience would not immediately fact check his statements, Australian Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said what he knew Jones wanted to hear in a 2 May interview – audio here.

Unfortunately for Abbott the mining industry was not so obliging and, he had to finally admit the blindingly obvious, that state laws do not allow farmers an unfettered right to keep mining companies off their land and that he supports states’ rights on this issue.

The Australian 3 May 2013:

OPPOSITION Leader Tony Abbott was last night forced to clarify his coal seam gas policy after indicating he would intervene in the issue as Prime Minister and protect the rights of farmers.

Only hours after the declaration on anti-CSG campaigner Alan Jones' 2GB radio show, the Coalition last night admitted its policy had not changed and it still believed the matter was a state issue.

The move came as one of the major industry players, Queensland Gas Company, lashed Mr Abbott for trying to appease Mr Jones' vocal campaign against the sector and stifle energy development.

The shifting positions came less than two years after Mr Abbott made a similarly bold declaration on Mr Jones' show declaring farmers had a right to refuse land access to miners - only to back away from the position days later.

On 2GB yesterday morning, Mr Abbott said his resources spokesman, Ian MacFarlane's comments backing the rights of farmers were ''sensible'' and it was his policy.

''Yeah, look, miners should not go on to farms if they're not wanted,'' he said.

''It's very wrong and they shouldn't be going on to land where the relevant landowners don't want them. It is as simple as that.''

Asked if he would ensure that in government unlike other politicians, Mr Abbott said: ''I want to be someone who keeps commitments and the interesting thing Alan is that the sensible miners, people like Santos, don't go on to land if the land holders aren't happy about it and that's the way it ought to be.''

But Mr MacFarlane last night said the Coalition believed farmers had rights in principle but that it would only ''urge'' states to protect their rights if elected to government in September.

''Nothing has changed,'' he said.

Mr Abbott's office said there was no change to the CSG policy, which let states handle the issue.

Not a good look for the O'Farrell Government, Metgasco or ERM Power

 

A $200,000 NSW riot police operation to break an anti-CSG protest at Glenugie may not secure any convictions.

More than 20 protesters were arrested when police broke up a protest in The Avenue at Glenugie on January 1 to allow CSG miner Metgasco's trucks access to a test drilling site.

Three of the protesters facing charges of hindering police, obstructing a driver's path and not complying with police directions were acquitted of all charges yesterday in the Grafton Local Court.

Magistrate David Heilpern found Ingo Andreas Bruno Medek, of Blue Knob, not guilty of hindering police and obstructing a driver in a hearing before lunch.

After the break he dismissed charges against Ian Ronald Gaillard of Keerong and Benjamin Zable, of Nimbin, in a few minutes, sparking some celebrations among supporters outside the court house.

Mr Gaillard said the offences he and Mr Zable were charged with occurred when he disobeyed police instruction to give Mr Zable a bottle of water during the protest.

Outside the court yesterday the pair re-enacted their actions for the benefit of about 20 supporters who turned up for the court case.

Defence solicitors Steve Bolt (for Mr Medek) and Philip Wykeham (for Gaillard and Zabel) said the decision could have major ramifications for two test cases in Maclean Local Court on July 9 and 10.

Mr Wykeham said after the magistrate's ruling yesterday, police commanders will have to make a decision to go ahead with the cases, which are to be used as templates for charges against other CSG protesters arrested at Glenugie.

 

Read the rest of The Daily Examiner article of 8 May 2013 here.

When climate change deniers govern

Letter to the Editor in The Northern Star 3 May 2013:

Ignoring science

I FIND it astounding that Liberal MLC Catherine Cusack (NS 20/4) appears to believe that simply by abolishing the climate change department and abandoning the benchmark for sea-level rise by the end of this century, her State Government has stopped the seas from rising.
I can't wait for the election of Tony Abbott as I presume the seas will then begin to recede.
The State Government may say that Ballina, or any other council that uses accepted science to identify coastal areas likely to be eroded over the next century, is now liable for the impacts on people's property prices.
The reality is that if a council ignores the available science and encourages development of such areas, then in the future those councils are likely to be liable for compensation as such developments are lost to the sea.
I agree with Ms Cusack that Ballina council's assumptions that climate change will only result in a sea-level rise of 91cm (above 1990 levels) by 2100, and that this will only result in a recession of sandy coastlines by 45m, are outdated.
The more recent scientific evidence is that seas are likely to rise by significantly more than this and that the use of the lowest bounds of the Bruun rule grossly underestimates the likely coastal recession that will result.
I find it extremely worrying that this State Government is not just a climate change denier but seems intent on trying to frustrate attempts to identify the future consequences and adapt our planning to minimise social and economic impacts. Our grandchildren will pay a very high price for this political zealotry.

Dailan Pugh

Byron Bay