Which NSW federal electorate will disappear in the electoral boundary redistribution currently underway?

The are 48 federal electorates within New South Wales with 48 sitting Members of Parliament.

As part of the current Australian Electoral Commission boundary redistribution process begun this month, one of these electorates will be removed from the map below before the 2016 federal general election.

Which one will it be?

ABC election commentator Antony Green suggests that it may be the Riverina electorate which will disappear completely.

However, a number of boundaries will have to be adjusted and The Sydney Morning Herald reported on 1 December 2014 :

Political pundits believe the biggest effects will be felt in the upper Hunter Valley and lower North Coast of NSW where enrolments have fallen the most dramatically.

This redistribution in NSW, WA and the ACT would not favour either an early federal election as Green points out or an unexpected by-election and, for the NSW North Coast would be particularly complicated:

The redistribution process will then take about nine months for NSW, possibly shorter for Western Australia. This will be an annoying complication for the Abbott government if it chooses to use any available trigger to request a double dissolution in 2015.

An early election in a state with an unchanged seat entitlement has no complications. The existing electoral boundaries would be used.

But under a High Court ruling from the 1970s, if a state's entitlement to seats in the House changes, then the changed number of members must be elected for the state at the next election.

This means that if an election is called mid-way through a redistribution in a state with changed entitlement to seats, then a method needs to be used to create or abolish a seat while leaving other boundaries in place.

The mechanism that has been in the Commonwealth Electoral Act since 1984, but to date never used, is a 'mini-redistribution'.

In a state set to lose a seat, the two adjacent electorates with the lowest enrolment would be amalgamated into a single electorate.

In a state set to gain an electorate, the two neighbouring electorates with the highest enrolment would be quickly divided into three electorates.

How would this operate in New South Wales ......based on enrolments at the end of June 2014?

On current enrolments, the National held seats of Page and Cowper on the north coast of NSW would be amalgamated into a single seat called Cowper-Page. On June statistics this joined seat would have an enrolment of 192,530.

The next four possible amalgamations would be Page-Richmond (192,839), Newcastle-Shortland (193,795), Farrer-Riverina (193,929) and Lyne-Paterson (194,377). Only one pairing of electorates would be merged, but which two will depend on enrolments when the election is called.

Cowper-Page combines two National held seats, Newcastle-Shortland combines two Labor held seats, Page-Richmond combines a Labor and National seat, while Farrer-Riverina and Lyne-Paterson combine a Liberal held and National held seat.....

and     

A double dissolution after the determination date but before the boundaries were finalised would require a mini-redistribution. That means this messy process would be used for a double dissolution between the end of 2014 and the last quarter of 2015.

NOW we have a budget in trouble and it's all the fault of Abbott, Hockey, Cormann and the rest of those mindless ideologues

Herald Sun 1 December 2014:

Forget Treasurer Joe Hockey's prediction of a balanced budget in 2017-18 because it's "well and truly toast".

That's the assessment of Deloitte Access Economics economist Chris Richardson, who is predicting bigger budget deficits across the forward estimates in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook.

Mr Richardson, who has long criticised both sides of politics for their handling of the budget, expects the 2014-15 deficit to blow out to $34.7 billion, about $5bn more than forecast.

Deficits will be $10bn larger in each of the following three years.

"Red ink will once again be the new black," Mr Richardson said about the MYEFO on Monday.

Australian Financial Review 1 December 2014:

Around half the policies in the May budget will never see the light of day and will have to be recast or replaced.

Economic conditions mean that the Coalition’s boasts that it could fix the budget faster than Labor are in tatters. The budget bottom line deteriorates by the day.

So how much have Abbott and Pyne spent on finding ways to convince voters that creating an unfair barrier to higher education for the working class is OK?

AusTender snapshot 29 November 2014:

It seems that once Federal Government politicians swan off for the December to February 2015 parliamentary holiday break, their backroom boys may not be enjoying quite such extended rest as they may have to return to their desks in order to delve into the $149.8k of data supplied by Orima Research.

Looking for ways to bombard unsuspecting voters with propaganda, advertising, 

information which attempts to convince them that higher education access and equity is not really an issue for their children, women in general and all low income families under Abbott & Pyne's unfair and unpopular tertiary education reform agenda.

And an advertising blitz is all that is left to the Abbott Government in the new year as the Senate voted down its higher education changes 33 to 31 on 2 December 2014.

900 more science jobs forecast to go by June 2015 in Abbott's Australia

ABC Rural 26 November 2014:

The CSIRO is set to lose one staff member in five over the next two years.

The effect of the Federal Government's cut of $114 million is now becoming clearer, with at least four regional research sites under threat.

National organiser for the CSIRO Staff Association, part of the CPSU, Paul Girdler, says 878 staff are to be cut over two years, until June 2015.

"It's over 100 more than originally forecast.

"Over two years, the CSIRO is losing 21.5 per cent of its workforce, or one in five jobs.

"This new analysis demonstrates the cuts are even worse than when they were announced."

Given the cuts last year, the total tally is 1,400 jobs at the Science Organisation.

Now it includes 36 scientists in agriculture and biosecurity fields, the majority in Canberra and Southern Queensland, while 75 scientists in Mineral Resources and Energy, and 71 in Land and Water, are targetted.

Mr Girdler says the futures of regional CSIRO sites are already threatened.

"The ones we have particular concerns about (include) Griffith in the Riverina.

"CSIRO has already announced it would close by 2016. We're trying to fight to keep that site open, but we have concerns.

"Three other sites will close unless they receives additional funding. One is Atherton in north Queensland, which is Ecosystem Science research.

"And two in NSW, the Radio Astronomy sites at Narrabri and Parkes."…..

"As of this week, two thirds of the people directly affected by the 2014 announced changes have been advised of or have completed their transition.  For the remaining positions that need to be identified and discussed with staff, leaders will be talking to individuals as soon as possible to resolve uncertainty.

"I appreciate these changes have been very difficult for all and I can assure you that your leadership team is committed to supporting staff through this time of change," says Mr Roy.

UPDATE

The Age 2 December 2014:

A world-leading CSIRO chemist who was  tipped to win a Nobel prize has been made redundant.

In September, the same month San Thang was nominated as a frontrunner for the illustrious prize in chemistry, he also ceased working as a senior researcher for the national science organisation, which has been hemorrhaging staff since June last year following severe budget cuts and a restructure.

As compensation, Dr Thang, who has worked at CSIRO for almost 30 years, was given an unpaid honorary fellowship. He continues to work at his former laboratory in Clayton, mainly supervising PhD students…..

A CSIRO spokesman confirmed Dr Thang had been made redundant as part of these changes.

As a direct consequence of the federal government slashing $115 million from CSIRO's funding over four years in the May budget, the organisation is expected to lose another 400 researchers and support staff by mid next year in addition to 300 positions being cut as part of an internal restructure.

This month, the CSIRO staff association released new data showing the size and scale of the job cuts were larger than expected, reporting that 878 positions were to be cut by June 2015.

But another CSIRO spokesman said the organisation did not expect a major variation from the number of staff reductions it announced earlier this year, around 720 positions.

National Congress of Australia's First Peoples writes to Prime Minister Abbott asking him to intervene in WA & SA plans to abandon remote communities

OPEN LETTER TO PRIME MINISTER – REMOTE COMMUNITIES

Posted on 28 November 2014

Dear Prime Minister,

The National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples has noted that the Western Australian and South Australian governments have threatened to shut down services to small and remote townships of the Aboriginal Peoples. We bring this matter to your government for urgent attention to Australian policy regarding the rights of First Peoples.

The First Peoples of Australia had, and will always have, inherent rights to exist on and develop our lands and territories. These rights derive from the continuing and ancient title to these lands and territories, and according to our collective rights to self-determination as Peoples.

By circumstances of Australia’s colonial and post-colonial history, and particularly in the absence of a consent agreement for acquisition and distribution of the wealth from our lands, territories and resources, our Peoples hold as a very minimum the right to enjoy equal outcomes from social and economic advancements benefiting all Australians. This must be clearly understood and respected by all governments in Australia.

The WA government apparently intends to target Aboriginal Peoples on the one hand, whilst continuing to provide high standards of municipal services to non-Indigenous citizens on the other. We cannot accept the WA and SA governments have legitimate authority under Australian or international law to racially discriminate to disrupt or destroy the livelihoods, accommodations or habitat of the First Peoples of Australia.

Congress must also take into account that other States may be contemplating reduction or withdrawal of services to our Peoples in the same way as Western Australia and South Australia.

Constitutionally, the Australian Government has the highest authority in the nation in order to promote and protect the rights of the First Peoples of Australia.

It is part of the international responsibilities and it is a responsibility that should not and cannot be discarded or devolved to other levels of government.

Congress brings to your attention that your government essentially reaffirmed its obligations to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples a few months ago at the United Nations General Assembly, during the high-level plenary session known as the World Conference on Indigenous Peoples.

The national government holds ultimate responsibility to promote and respect equality and non-discrimination in the nation and, in that context, also to ensure our Peoples are correctly acknowledged as rights holders as Indigenous Peoples.

These standards to which we refer are enshrined in the human rights treaties that Australia has signed and ratified, along with the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

Congress requests your government immediately affirm to the states and territories that rights of the First Peoples are paramount in any fiscal arrangements to address social and economic development.

We consider it appropriate that this matter also be discussed at the next Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meeting.

Congress also requests an urgent meeting with you to further discuss this important matter.

Yours sincerely,

Kirstie Parker and Les Malezer,
Congress Co-Chairs

APN readers have spoken - they want Ginger Meggs!

Although the judges at APN are yet to officially declare the result of the readers' poll for their favourite comic strips and thus the three they want retained when APN 'restructures' its comics page Ginger Meggs polled very strongly and came in second with 23% of the votes.

Here's what APN's Daily Examiner displayed on its website after the poll closed.

World AIDS Day 2014

The global World AIDS Day theme for this year continues on from last year’s theme: Getting to Zero: Zero new HIV infections. Zero discrimination. Zero AIDS related deaths.

The aim of World AIDS Day is to encourage all Australians to be aware of HIV; to take action to reduce the transmission of HIV by promoting safe sex practices; and to ensure that people living with HIV can participate fully in the life of the community, free from stigma and discrimination.

As a community and as individuals, there is a lot we can do in relation to HIV. Working in partnership with people living with HIV, we can encourage others to understand how the virus is transmitted. We can support people to access testing and treatment, as we know that getting treatment at the early stages of infection results in better health outcomes. We can raise awareness that HIV positive people have the right to participate in a community free from stigma and discrimination.

Show your support for people living with HIV on World AIDS Day by wearing a red ribbon, the international symbol of HIV awareness and support.

Source: World AIDS Day Australia

More info here