CSIRO updated climate change projections for Australian - east coast zone covering NSW North Coast

CSIRO Climate Change Projections 2015

EAST COAST SOUTH PROJECTION SUMMARIES

RAINFALL

Decreases in winter rainfall are projected with medium confidence. Other changes are possible but unclear. On annual and decadal basis, natural variability in the climate system can act to either mask or enhance any long-term human induced trend, particularly in the next 20 years…..

TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS

…..There is very high confidence in continued substantial increases in projected mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in line with our understanding of the effect of further increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.

For the near future (2030), the annually averaged warming across all emission scenarios is projected to be around 0.5 to 1.3 °C above the climate of 1986–2005.

By late in the century (2090), for a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) the projected range of warming is 2.9 to 4.6 °C. Under an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) the projected warming is 1.3 to 2.5 °C.

EXTREME TEMPERATURE

More hot days and warm spells are projected with very high confidence. Fewer frosts are projected with high confidence.

Extreme temperatures are projected to increase at a similar rate to mean temperature, with a substantial increase in the temperature reached on hot days, the frequency of hot days, and the duration of warm spells (very high confidence).

Frost risk days (minimum temperatures under 2 °C) are expected to decrease across the cluster (high confidence).

Some areas could experience around two to three times the average number of days above 35 °C under intermediate emission scenarios by late in the century.

EXTREME RAINFALL & DROUGHT

Increased intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected, with high confidence.

Understanding of the physical processes that cause extreme rainfall, coupled with modelled projections, indicate with high confidence a future increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events, although the magnitude of the increases cannot be confidently projected.

Time spent in drought is projected, with medium confidence, to increase over the course of the century.

MARINE & COAST

Mean sea level will continue to rise and height of extreme sea-level events will also increase (very high confidence).

For 1966 to 2009, the average rate of relative sea-level rise for Australia, from observations along the coast, was 1.4 mm/year.

There is very high confidence in future sea-level rise. By 2030 the projected range of sea-level rise for the cluster coastline is 0.09 to 0.19 m above the 1986–2005 level, with only minor differences between emission scenarios. As the century progresses, projections are sensitive to concentration pathways. By 2090, the intermediate emissions case (RCP4.5) is associated with a rise of 0.30 to 0.65 m and the high emissions case (RCP8.5) a rise of 0.45 to 0.88 m. Under certain circumstances, sea-level rises higher than these may occur.

Late in the century warming of the East Coast coastal waters poses a significant threat to the marine environment through biological changes in marine species, including local abundance, community structure, and enhanced coral bleaching risk. Sea surface temperature is projected to increase in the range of 2.8 to 5.7 °C by 2090 under a high scenario (RCP8.5). The sea will also become more acidic, with acidification proportional to emissions growth.

OTHER

A harsher fire-weather climate in the future.

FIRE WEATHER: There is high confidence that climate change will result in a harsher fire-weather climate in the future. However, there is low confidence in the magnitude of that change because of the significant uncertainties in the rainfall projection.

EVAPORATION: Potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase in all seasons as warming progresses (high confidence).

HUMIDITY: There is little change in relative humidity for the near future, but medium confidence in a decrease later in the century.

 East Coast Cluster Report (2.7 MB)

Liberal Party State of Play (Part Two): Tony Abbott, Prime Clown of Australia

Taking a second twirl around the Australian reaction to Anthony John Abbott’s latest political gaffe and cultural cringe - discovering howls of laughter alongside expressions of disgust.

The newspaper front page mocking the Prime Minister:

The political cartoons:

The Twitter response:

Abbott’s response to the public response in The Age on 28 January 2015:

But when Mr Abbott was asked on Wednesday if he owed Mr Newman an apology for creating the knighthood distraction with his captain's pick during the last week of a tight state election campaign, the Prime Minister shifted the blame elsewhere.

"He wants to focus on his strong team with a strong plan," he said.

"I suspect it's the questioners that have stopped him from doing it.

"My focus is on jobs and families and I'm looking forward to getting back to that as quickly as I can."

His principal media ally’s response:

Banned BTEX chemicals found at AGL coal seam gas drilling site

The NSW Government prohibited the use of BTEX chemicals in coal seam gas activities on 6 March 2012, yet it may have been used in 2015 or alternatively the gas industry is allowing naturally occurring underground benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene to escape into the above ground environment:

NSW Environmental Protection Agency

AGL operations suspended and EPA investigating after BTEX chemicals detected in Waukivory well

Media release: 27 January 2015

                            

AGL operations at Gloucester have been suspended and the NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA) is investigating after the company informed the authority that it had detected BTEX chemicals at its Gloucester coal seam gas project.

AGL suspended operations today after announcing BTEX chemicals were found in samples from its Waukivory operations, said EPA Chief Environmental Regulator Mark Gifford.

“AGL informed the EPA that it was aware of these elevated levels of BTEX chemicals on 15 January, but it did not make these results known to the EPA or the public until today,” said Mr Gifford.

“The EPA is very concerned at AGL’s lack of timeliness and transparency in informing us of these results and we will be conducting a full investigation.

“The EPA can confirm that fracking fluid additives used at the Waukivory operation were sampled and analysed by Government environmental officers in November 2014 before fracking activities were allowed to commence.

“These samples were analysed for BTEX chemicals, which were not detected. Identifying the source of the elevated levels of BTEX chemicals found in AGL’s samples will be part of the EPA’s investigation.”

BTEX is a group of chemicals known as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene. These chemicals can occur naturally in coal seams. The Government banned the use of BTEX chemicals in hydraulic fracturing and are prohibited in Environment Protection Licences issued by the EPA.

Contact: EPA Public Affairs

UPDATE

Newcastle Herald 29 January 2015:

AGL will not be allowed to resume work at its Gloucester coal seam gas project until it can prove its operations do not pose an environmental threat.

The state government ordered the company cease operations at the pilot project on Wednesday until joint investigations triggered by the presence of toxic BTEX chemicals have been finalised.

Office of Coal Seam Gas and Environment Protection Authority investigators are working to determine whether the toxic chemicals found in water samples from wells are naturally occurring or were introduced by the company.

‘‘I want to know exactly what has happened,’’ Energy and Resources Minister Anthony Roberts told a parliamentary inquiry that is looking into gas supplies in NSW…….

Steve Cansdell avoided humiliating defeat at the ballot box by not nominating

Disgraced former Nationals MP for Clarence, Steve Cansdell, attempted to spin his second thoughts in The Daily Examiner on 21 January 2015:

Click on image to enlarge

In the end when nominations closed there was only one candidate, so the by-election was cancelled and, the only nominee was elected by default.

Popular opinion is that people were not putting up their hands to serve as an elected councillor because democracy had finally died within Clarence Valley Council in October 2011 and, no-one wanted to be involved with what is perceived locally as dysfunctional decision making.

AUSTRALIA 2015: for those who......

The year doesn’t seem to have started well – each day brings unwelcome news of one kind or another. So here is a little quiet joy for those who: have to go to the ballot box twice this year; cannot bear to hear another politician say “I promise”; despair that they’ll find suitable care for an aging relative; dread the next electricity bill; worry about what the future holds for their unemployed child; found out they need to be hospitalised; are worn down counting the cents at the end of the week and never hundred dollars bills; as well as those silently pleading for a decent break from January’s heat.

http://youtu.be/dsPDY606Joo

http://youtu.be/87qT5BOl2XU

http://youtu.be/XoBMJAEOvPA

Labor and Liberal-Nationals voters really are like chalk and cheese

It would appear that the average Labor voter does have a different view of the world from his/her Liberal or Nationals counterpart.

Labor voters have a higher than average trust in the Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC). Liberal-Nationals supporters have more trust than the average in all news sources - except possibly the ABC.

Labor voters have a higher than average trust in environment groups and trade unions. While Liberal-Nationals supporters have more trust than the average in institutions such as the Reserve Bank, Parliament, religious organisations and, in business groups.

Essential Report 20 January 2015:

Q. How much trust do you have in the following institutions and organisations?

Note: ‘Total Trust’ is an aggregate figure achieved by adding ‘A lot of trust’ and ‘Some trust’

There have been few significant changes since this question was asked in July last year.

Respondents had most trust in the ABC (53%), the High Court (53%), the Reserve Bank (49%) and charitable organisations (44%). They had least trust in political parties (14%) and religious organisations (22%).

The main changes since the last poll were for TV news media (down 7% to 25%) and religious organisations (down 4% to 22%).

Compared to the average, Labor voters had more trust in the ABC (61%), environment groups (42%) and trade unions (33%).

Liberal/National voters, compared to the average, had a little more trust in the Reserve Bank (59%), religious organisations (29%), newspapers (38%), TV news (33%), Federal Parliament (39%), State Parliament (35%) and business groups (33%).

Just the sort of prime ministerial car required for driving among Australian crowds in 2015?

Is Prime Minister Tony Abbott harbouring a fear of the Australian populace so deep that he now needs an armoured car in each state and territory, plus a spare, in order to feel safe? Or does he just enjoy spending millions to bolster his perception of his own self-importance?

BMW 7 Series High Security: This is the world’s first armoured saloon to be fully compliant with the requirements for class VR7 ballistic protection (tested as per BRV 2009 guidelines)…..The optional Professional rear-seat entertainment system provides first-rate entertainment, with two 9.2-inch colour screens allowing the passengers to watch DVDs, follow the car’s progress via the navigation system or go on the Internet. The system is controlled via its own iDrive controller in the centre console. A special rear air conditioning system is also available, and the seat temperature too can be adjusted, with cool air being blown at the body through perforations in the leather. And to complete the relaxing effect, there is the optional new massage function in the rear-seat backrests. If space is the measure of all things, the long version continues to provide the ultimate comfort in terms of legroom.

The Sydney Morning Herald 14 January 2015:

Mr Abbott's new ride is one of nine BMW armoured cars the government has bought under a $6.3 million contract, replacing the 12-year-old prime ministerial limo fleet of customised Holden Caprices.

The BMW 7 Series High Security cars were first used at the G20, ferrying world leaders around Brisbane, but have been phased into regular use over the holiday period.

The new V-12 prime ministerial fleet will be spread across the country and, when not needed by Mr Abbott, will be available for visiting VIPs such as foreign leaders and dignitaries.

International Business Times Australia 15 January 2015:

The prime minister will now be taken to his itineraries inside the fifth generation BMW 7 Series High Security car, equipped with VR7 ballistic protection standard that was tested under the BRV 2009 guidelines. The car can protect Prime Minister Tony Abbott from three highest risk factors - attacks using strong rounded objects and handguns of up to a calibre of .44 Magnum, attacks using the automatic AK-47 and attacks using explosive devices and armour-piercing weapons….

it can shelter the prime minister from three possible risky situations - street crime, organised crime and explosions….

The contract with BMW involving the current fleet was the subject of an argument between Labor and the current regime. Apparently, Holden was not considered to be awarded the contract, while it was found that BMW did not even enter a bid in the original tender. 

Cartrade.com 16 January 2015:

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott gets a fifth generation BMW 7 Series High Security car .…..

The vehicle has been built using strengthened steel that has also been backed up by an interior that is made from sculpted synthetic fibers that are hard and stated to be heat resistant. The new vehicle gets additional safety features like inclusion of tyres that remain inflated even when punctured, a self-sealing petrol tank, an attack alarm along with an intercom system that allows the occupants to communicate with people outside without having to open the doors.

Business Insider 16 January 2014:

Abbott pulled up in his new ride at the Prime Minister’s XI cricket match in Canberra on Wednesday.