Tuesday, 13 September 2016

Not for the first time the insurance industry sounds alarm over climate change impacts


COASTAL RISK AUSTRALIA 2100: Clarence River NSW,
 expected Highest Tide Flooding in 2100 at +0.54m.
High Tide flood extent (dark blue) and medium sea level rise scenario for 2100 (light blue)

Common Dreams, 29 August 2016:

Warning that climate change amounts to the "mother of all risks," three of the world's biggest insurance companies this week are demanding that G20 countries stop bankrolling the fossil fuels industry.

Multi-national insurance giants Aviva, Aegon, and Amlin, which together manage $1.2tn in assets, released a statement Tuesday calling on the leaders of the world's biggest economies to commit to ending coal, oil, and gas subsidies within four years.

"Climate change in particular represents the mother of all risks—to business and to society as a whole. And that risk is magnified by the way in which fossil fuel subsidies distort the energy market," said Aviva CEO Mark Wilson. "These subsidies are simply unsustainable."

According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), fossil fuel companies receive an estimated $5.3tn a year in global subsidies—a figure that included, as the IMF put it, the "real costs" associated with damage to the environment and human health that are foisted on populations but not paid by polluters.

Tuesday's declaration is being issued as leaders prepare to convene for the 11th G20 summit, which is being held in Hangzhou, China on September 4-5 under the theme: "Toward an Innovative, Invigorated, Interconnected, and Inclusive World Economy."

"We're calling on governments to kick away these carbon crutches, reveal the true impact to society of fossil fuels and take into account the price we will pay in the future for relying on them," Wilson added.

Indeed, insurance companies are increasingly shouldering many of the costs associated with a warming planet, whether it be from extreme weather damage or reimbursing farmers for lost crops.

In the first half of 2016 alone, natural catastrophes have caused $70bn in losses, of which $27bn was insured, according to an assessment by insurance and reinsurance company Munich RE—with events of particular note being climate-related "storms in the U.S. and Europe, massive forest fires in Canada, and the complete absence of typhoons in the northwestern Pacific."

And housing data firm Zillow recently published an analysis which found that as many as 1.9 million homes across the country could be underwater by 2100 if the seas rise as much as climate scientists predict, amounting to property losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars……

West Yamba: Expected Highest Tide Flooding in 2100 at +0.74m. Image courtesy of John Edwards.
High Tide flood extent (dark blue) and high sea level rise scenario for 2100 (light blue)

Monday, 12 September 2016

Clarence Valley Local Government Elections Vote Tally: state of play at 10.30pm 11 September 2016


The 10 September 2016 Clarence Valley Local Government  Election is commencing its third day of ballot counting and one thing is quite clear – a significant number of voters have withdrawn first preference support for five of the eight incumbent councillors seeking re-election.

Although it should be noted that one incumbent having been elected unopposed at a 2015 by-election has no 2012 voting figure with which to make a comparison. Indeed, based on his 2016 vote tally so far, it is doubtful if in a contested by-election he would have won at all.

The most striking first preference vote losses are those of the incumbent mayor, Richie Williamson, who sees his 2016 first preference vote tally to date only reach 53.35% of his 2012 tally - an almost 47% reduction - and incumbent councillor Sue Hughes whose current first preference vote only reaches 55.61% of her 2012 tally.

Only two incumbent councillors, Karen Toms and Jim Simmons, have increased their first preference vote tally so far.

So while it appears that between five and six incumbent councillors will be returned for the next four years, most will have to lift their game if they are to win back an increasingly disenchanted electorate.

At this stage it also seems that between three and four candidates will become Clarence Valley councillors for a first time, with all having strong connections within community.

The electoral state of play* at 12.15am on Monday 12 September looks like this…….

First 9 candidates in order of first preference votes received:
Richie Williamson (9,223) (4,921), Andrew Baker (3,075) (2,888), Karen Toms (1,252) (2,294), Debrah Novak (2,023), Jim Simmons (1,668) (1,971), Peter Ellem (1,946), Jason Kingsley (2,145) (1,954), Greg Clancy (1,275) (1,622), Brett Tibbett (1,250).

Second 9 candidates in order of first preference votes received:
Arthur Lysault (1,115), Margaret McKenna (1,224) (1,066), John Hagger (1,062), Sue Hughes (1,764) (981), Trevor Ellem (954), Peta Rogers (937), Ian Saunders (916),  Joy De Roos (473), John Riggall (458).

Final three candidates in order of first preference votes received:
Marty Wells (290), Ursula Tunks (540) (285), Keith Bates (156).

* First preference votes in 2012 Clarence Valley LGA election marked in red and first preference votes in 2016 LGA election in black.

NSW ELECTORAL COMMISSION VIRTUAL TALLY ROOM


2.25pm 11 September 2016
There are 9 Councillors to be elected from 21 candidates
Total Number of Electors enrolled in this Council area on 1 August 2016: 39,070
Percentage of all enrolled voters counted: 80.24%
Progressive Quota: 2,957
Informal Rate: 5.72%
Batching commenced: 2:06pm


Summary of First Preference Votes

Candidate
Party/IND
FP Votes
Quota
Ratio
% Formal Votes

NOVAK Debrah
IND
2,023
0.68
6.84%
SAUNDERS Ian
IND
916
0.31
3.10%
CLANCY Greg
GRN
1,622
0.55
5.49%
ROGERS Peta
IND
937
0.32
3.17%
TIBBETT Brett
IND
1,250
0.42
4.23%
TOMS Karen
IND
2,294
0.78
7.76%
TUNKS Ursula
IND
285
0.1
0.96%
KINGSLEY Jason
IND
1,954
0.66
6.61%
HAGGER John
IND
1,062
0.36
3.59%
ELLEM Peter
IND
1,946
0.66
6.58%
WILLIAMSON Richie
4,921
1.66
16.65%
WELLS Marty
IND
290
0.1
0.98%
ELLEM Trevor
IND
954
0.32
3.23%
DE ROOS Joy
473
0.16
1.60%
BATES Keith
156
0.05
0.53%
HUGHES Sue
IND
981
0.33
3.32%
SIMMONS Jim
IND
1,971
0.67
6.67%
RIGGALL John
IND
458
0.15
1.55%
LYSAUGHT Arthur
IND
1,115
0.38
3.77%
McKENNA Margaret
IND
1,066
0.36
3.61%
BAKER Andrew
IND
2,888
0.98
9.77%
Total Formal Votes Counted
29,562
100%
Total Informal/Other Votes
1,792
5.72%
Progressive Total Votes
31,354


All preference distributions and any outstanding postal votes should be included in the final ballot tally by Thursday night, 15 September and the election results declared by 16 September 2016. 

TONY WATCH (2)


TONY  WATCH is an irregular post series recording Abbott’s efforts to bring down Malcolm Turnbull and re-install himself as prime minister.

Once again the fiscal shenanigans of our politicians have been brought to the electorate's attention, reminding us all of this:

"Non-Australian individuals, businesses and even governments may donate to political parties, “purchasing access and influence far greater than that of ordinary (Australian) citizens”, writes Marian Sawer. Sawer also points out that other democratic countries ban corporate donations, those from foreign interests, or require shareholder approval for company donations while Australia does not." [The Australian Collaboration (2011) Democracy in Australia – Electoral donations and campaign finance in IDEA Political Finance data for Australia]

Like a hound that had scented blood, on Thursday 9 September 2016 former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott was making sure he was in the news either being compared with or confronting the current prime minister - safe in the knowledge that Turnbull overseas on official business would not be able to quickly respond.

Independent Australia, 9 September 2016:

Back in 2008, before rolling Tony Abbott for the leadership, Turnbull supported political donation reform, telling Parliament:

 "This is a big, big, moral issue. I would love to see a day when only individuals on the electoral role were able to give money to political parties with an annual cap".

Since the 1980s, Australia has become known for its laissez-faire or lackadaisical attitude to the role of money in politics. At the federal level, Australia introduced public funding for political parties to reduce reliance on private donations but corporate donations have continued to grow — reaching $202 million in 2013–14.

Disclosure to the Australian Electoral Commission is required for donations of over $13,200 but there are no source restrictions or limits for donations.

So we have the situation where companies seeking access to government and favourable treatment of bids for contracts or licenses are quite lawfully making large donations to political parties. Australia’s political finance regulation falls way behind international standards, as can be seen in the global database maintained by the Institutional Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA).

To take just the issue currently in the headlines, Australia has not even taken the step of banning donations from foreign interests, unlike 114 other democracies. See IDEA's Political finance bans and limits here…… 

In the early hours of the morning there was a somewhat hypocritical Tony Abbott seeking to land a blow on his arch-nemesis Malcolm Turnbull with this stance on a topical political issue.
The Sydney Morning Herald, 9 September 2016, 12am:

Former prime minister Tony Abbott has outlined a sweeping plan for reform of Australia's political donations system that would ban payments from unions, companies and overseas donors.

In comments that will ratchet up pressure on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to act on reform of Australia's donations laws - rather than punt the problem off to a parliamentary committee - Mr Abbott spoke exclusively to Fairfax Media about the need for a major re-think of the current system.

While opposition leader in May 2013, Mr Abbott backed out on a donation reform deal struck with then-prime minister Julia Gillard after an internal party and public backlash.

That deal would have handed political parties and elected MPs more public funding but also, crucially, reduced the disclosure thresholds for anonymous donations from $12,000 to $5000.

There are strong calls for donation reform from various sides of politics following the Sam Dastyari affair.

While opposition leader in May 2013, Mr Abbott backed out on a donation reform deal struck with then-prime minister Julia Gillard after an internal party and public backlash.

That deal would have handed political parties and elected MPs more public funding but also, crucially, reduced the disclosure thresholds for anonymous donations from $12,000 to $5000.

But in the wake of the Dastyari scandal, Mr Abbott said: "I think it is time to look at donations reform again.

" We need to look long and hard at restricting donations to real people on the electoral roll. To that end, there should be no union donations, company donations or foreign donations, " he said.

" Obviously we don't want influence buying, we don't want subversion of our system. The best way to ensure the system is straight and clean is full transparency. The best way to have transparency is to have real-time disclosure, or near-to-real-time disclosure."

Mr Abbott encouraged people "to donate to the Liberals, or the party of their choice - that's a good thing - and if they want to do it substantially that's great, as long as there is that transparency".

"Plainly we do need to subject any changes to scrutiny to ensure there are no unintended consequences, but in the wake of the Dastyari affair, this does need to be looked at again."

Mr Abbott did not specify whether the Turnbull government should appoint an independent panel of experts to examine donations reform, as the NSW government did in 2014, or whether it should be left to a parliamentary committee…..

Mr Turnbull said that "ideally" donations should be limited to people on the electoral roll but only hinted that a parliamentary committee could look at the issue.

"So you would exclude not simply foreigners but you would exclude corporations and you'd exclude trade unions," he said.

"It is a very complex issue, however, and it is something that the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters should look at very carefully."

The committee, however, has not been formed, has not been asked to examine the issue and routinely has had its past reform recommendations ignored.

After the 2013 election, the committee undertook a routine review but devoted just 10 pages of the 192-page report to the issues of donations. It made not one recommendation to reform the system or improve transparency.

After the 2010 poll, the committee examined how the political donations system in Australia could be improved and made a sweeping series of recommendations - including lowering disclosure thresholds and banning foreign money.

Mr Shorten said the Prime Minister was "hardly one to throw rocks about political courage".

"I say to Malcolm Turnbull: be prepared. Next week you can either work with us or oppose us but, by hook or by crook, Labor is going to propose legislation which will ban foreign donations."

Labor's donations reform policies include reducing the disclosure threshold from $13,800 to $1000, banning anonymous donations over $50 and banning foreign donations.

The Greens and sections of the crossbench also back donations reforms, including lowering donations thresholds and stopping foreign donations……

Not content with a single left to the jaw, Abbott swiftly followed on with this jab in The Australian on the same day, on the subject of the so-called Healthy Welfare Cards aka restricted bank debit card being trialled between 1 February 2016 and 30 June 2018 at three test sites.

The Australian, 9 September 2016, 12am:

Tony Abbott has called for an ­expansion of the government’s healthy welfare card and says criticism that it is racist could ­derail it and ignores the fact the debit system has been backed by indigenous people.

Writing in The Australian after spending five days in the remote East Kimberley town of Kununurra, Mr Abbott has challenged parliament to keep the trial going “long enough for a proper evaluation”. He has also renewed his controversial push for people to be given their full family tax benefit payment only if their children have a good school attendance rate, saying trials could work in places where the community wants to tackle truancy…..

Unlike the incumbent Prime Minister, Abbott as a backbencher can conveniently ignore the fact that these tests results may be potentially skewed due to accompanying supportive wraparound welfare services, that the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights has raised concerns about income management infringing human rights based on the right to equality and non-discrimination, the right to social security and the right to privacy and family and that not all indigenous communities are in favour of this move by federal government.

His pugilistic propensities not yet satisfied, Abbott hit out at Turnbull a third time later in the morning.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 9 September 2016, 9am:

Former prime minister Tony Abbott has accused the ABC of bias over its July coverage of abuse in Northern Territory juvenile detention system and suggested that his successor Malcolm Turnbull responded "in panic" at the TV program.

Mr Turnbull announced there would be a royal commission the morning after the Four Corners broadcast, which depicted shocking scenes in the Don Dale Youth Detention Centre, and the government formally established the inquiry the next week.

Just over a month later, Mr Abbott has called the ABC report "pretty one-sided", joining ousted NT chief minister Adam Giles in criticising it despite the federal government's praise.

"Yes, it was a shocking report but it was only telling one side of the story and, when the rest of the story started to come out, it appeared that things were not nearly as black and white as the ABC presented them," the former prime minister told 2GB radio……

All in all a pathetic performance on Abbott's part - reminding the nation as it does of his justifiable sacking in September 2015 rather than acting as a showcase for his 'leadership' qualities.

Turnbull Government fails to think through aged care funding cuts


Another example of the monumental cock-up that that is the Australian Federal Government under Malcolm Turnbull & Co.

Australian Financial Review, 6 September 2016:

The Turnbull government has agreed to review $1.2 billion in aged care cuts after the sector presented modelling showing the effect would be much greater than anticipated. 

As ASX-listed providers blamed the funding squeeze for a 30 per cent drop in the value of their shares, Aged & Community Services Australia president Paul Sadler said modelling revealed the cuts would reduce support per resident per year by 11 per cent, or between $6655 and $18,000. 

He told The Australian Financial Review that the government had indicated it was willing to talk about alternative ways for find the $1.2 billion in savings to what is known as the "aged care funding instrument" announced in the May federal budget. Labor had already given a similar commitment. "The government has started the process of talking to the sector about alternative approaches," Mr Sadler said.

Aged & Community Services Australia is among a number of groups and representatives that have told the government there are better ways to achieve the savings. 

The government concession comes as the trio of listed companies operating in the aged care space – Estia Health, Regis Healthcare and Japara Healthcare – experienced a sharemarket slump that they said was driven by restrictions on what they can charge residents.

The federal Department of Health clarified last Friday that providers could not charge building refurbishment or capital replacement fees on top of existing accommodation charges. 
"It's like you or I paying rent and then being charged extra to fund the cost of maintaining the building in the future," said Grant Corderoy of Stewart Brown, an accountancy firm that conducts a quarterly survey of aged care financial performance……

Aged care funding is complex.

Costs are split into two parts: healthcare and accommodation.

In the first category, funding is largely provided per resident by the federal government based the level of support required according to health needs.

Separately, accommodation is paid for via a refundable loan (paid by the resident), an equivalent daily payment (which is either covered by the government or the resident, depending on capacity to pay) or a combination of both.

There has been bipartisan support in Canberra to deregulate the accommodation part of the equation.

While the amount that can be charged for accommodation has a regulator to monitor pricing levels, residents can agree to pay extra for higher standards of food or services; a glass of wine in the evening or massage therapy, for example.

Some providers have added levies of up to $18 a day for building maintenance and building replacement.

But last Friday the department said these charges should be included into the base accommodation pricing – they could not be charged as "added extras".

The end result is a potential loss of revenue per resident of $4000 to $5000 a year depending on the extent of the additional charge……