Current Australian Real Gross Domestic Product figure is no reason to panic

Australia has enjoyed 25 consecutive year of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

This is what the last ten years of that growth looked like:

So  when that arch enemy of sound economic principles, Federal Treasurer and Liberal MP for Cook, Scott Morrison, starts yelling that the sky is falling and Santa Claus is dead – remember the only weapon in his armoury across all three portfolios he has held (Immigration, Social Services & Treasury) is The Big Scare.

Like all his big scares this one is designed as warfare against the weak and vulnerable, so expect the MYEFO (mid-year budget update) released tomorrow to be structured to deliver doom and gloom.

According to Yahoo! News: The last time Australia was in recession, Sale of the Century was on the nation’s televisions and people endured Bryan Adams’ (Everything I Do) I Do it for You as the number one song for 11 long weeks.

So if a 77 year-old Tony Barber isn’t fronting a new television game show this month and a 57 year-old Bryan Adams hasn't returned to centre stage from the musical back blocks he currently tours, then I suggest you don't have worry about an economic recession just yet.

Otherwise, enjoy your festive season in the sure knowledge that federal parliament is in recess until 7 February 2017 and therefore pollies can do no further harm for the remainder of 2016.

Just the sheer size and reach of the Trump Organisation's business interests has implications for U.S. foreign policy

For the last eighteen months in particular there has been media comment on the extensive business interests of U.S. president-elect Donald John Trump.

Since the November 2016 presidential election focus has intensified.

However, the U.S. Constitution drawn up in a simpler century teflon coats presidents - never having envisioned the likes of  Donald Trump.

The reach of Trump’s business interests are said to reach as far as Australia.

Given the man doesn’t seem to understand that the only ethical course would be to divest himself entirely of his business interests by placing them in a genuine blind trust not run by family members, close friends or business partners, so that both America and the world can have a measure of confidence in the his decision making as president, one can only look aghast at the potential for these business interests to fatally infect his presidency and U.S. foreign policy.

In July 2015 Donald Trump disclosed 515 U.S. and foreign corporations or partnerships in which he was either president, partner, chair, director, secretary, member and/or shareholder.

Forbes, 17 August 2015:

Under “Our Hotels” on the Trump Hotel Collection website, it lists six domestic hotels and six international hotels…..

The other hotels abroad are in Toronto, Doonbeg, Ireland, Vancouver, and Baku, Azerbaijan. (Toronto and Vancouver also have a Trump Tower.)

On the website for the Trump Real Estate Collection, nine international properties are listed, including two Trump Towers in India and one in Istanbul, another in Uruguay and another in the Philippines, as well as a Trump World in South Korea, among others.

Donald Trump has an interest in more than 30 U.S. properties, roughly half of which have debt on them according to The New York Times on 20 August 2016:

Debt on properties Mr. Trump owns or leases

PROPERTY	LOCATION	DEBT OUTSTANDING
40 Wall Street	Manhattan	157,400,000
Trump International Hotel*	Washington	127,000,000
Trump National Doral golf resort	Miami	125,000,000
Trump Tower	Manhattan	100,000,000
Trump International Hotel	Chicago	45,000,000
167 East 61st Street	Manhattan	14,500,000
Trump Park Avenue	Manhattan	12,495,000
Trump National Golf Club	Colts Neck, N.J.	11,700,000
4-8 East 57th Street "Niketown"	Manhattan	10,600,000
Seven Springs estate	Mount Kisco, N.Y.	8,000,000
Trump National Golf Club Washington	Potomac Falls, Va.	7,600,000
Trump International Hotel and Tower	Manhattan	7,000,000
Trump International Hotel**	Las Vegas	3,200,000
1094 South Ocean Boulevard	Palm Beach, Fla.	250,000
124 Woodbridge Road	Palm Beach, Fla.	250,000

*This construction loan was for $170 million. The Trump Organization and Times sources confirm roughly $127 million has been drawn down on.
**This loan was worth $110 million in 2010. The Trump Organization says a Trump entity is responsible for $3.2 million of the debt outstanding. The Times could not confirm this.

Debt associated with Mr. Trump's limited partnerships/investments

PROPERTY	LOCATION	PRC  OWNED	DEBT OUTSTANDING
1290 Avenue of the Americas	Manhattan	30	950,000,000
555 California Street	San Francisco	30	589,000,000
Starrett City / Spring Creek Towers	Brooklyn	4	410,000,000

Other:

An internal Trump Organization corporate loan, which Mr. Trump says is worth more than $50 million.

Sources: RedVision Systems, Securities and Exchange Commission, New York Times, Bloomberg data, Trump Organization.

The New York Times compiled these debt estimates using bank documents, public filings and through interviews with the Trump Organization and people familiar with the debt who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak on the record about it.

The bulk of these liabilities appear to consist of mortgages maturing between 2016 and 2029.

The Washington Post, 16 September 2016:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection records, compiled by ImportGenius.com since 2007, give us a look at what has been imported by many of the businesses that are owned by Trump or use his name via licensing deals.

Trump has imported from the countries coloured red and many of the products bearing Donald Trump’s name appear to come from low-wage countries in East Asia.

Vodka

Trump licensed his name to the Israeli vodka after a 2011 legal battle. Unlike the original Trump vodka made in Holland, the new version was popular as one of the few liquors that’s kosher for Passover.

Barware

Made by a crystal company in a small town in Slovenia, its first entry into the U.S. market.

Ties

Made in countries such as China and sold on Amazon.com in nearly 200 patterns and sizes.

Mirrors

Made in China.

Accessories

Including cuff links, belts and eyeglasses made in China and other countries.

Fragrance

Trump’s cologne has been manufactured in and out of the United States.

Clothing

Trump makes his clothing line abroad. The manufacturers are generally scattered throughout East Asia and Central America.

Chandeliers and lamps

Some of these products retail for more than $4,000. Made in China.

Furniture

Trump Home sells furniture to consumers made in Germany and Turkey, but his own hotels often get furniture from massive distributors such as the multinational IHS Global Alliance.

The national shame of 2-4 August 2014 should never ever be repeated

"It is profoundly disturbing to witness the appalling treatment of this young woman at the Lock-Up on 4 August 2014. In her final hours she was unable to have the comfort of the presence of her loved ones, and was in the care of a number of police officers who disregarded her welfare and her right to humane and dignified treatment." [Excerpt from Western Australia State Coroner, coronial finding, 16 December 2016]

WA Coronial Inquest into the Death of Ms. Dhu, 16 December 2016 by clarencegirl on Scribd

Just because it is beautiful........(20)

The lyrebird from Australia can mimic virtually any sound that it hears, including children's toys,chainsaws and the calls of other animals! pic.twitter.com/bg57Hlokz7

— Strange Animals (@Strange_Animals) November 26, 2016

Will the Abbott-Turnbull policy horror stories never stop?

The Liberal and National parties blindly driven by ideology and riddled with far-right extremists have altered existing social policies (sometimes out of all recognition) or created new punitive policies, which are increasing the distress of the old, the disabled, the sick, low income earners, the unemployed and indigenous people.

Here is yet another bad news story about the effect of these policies……..

ABC News, 3 December 2016:

The Federal Government's remote work-for-the-dole scheme is devastating Indigenous communities, with financial penalties causing insurmountable debt and social division, a report has found.

The Australian National University researchers described Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion's Community Development Programme (CDP) as a "policy disaster".

ANU researcher and co-author Dr Kirrily Jordan said financial penalties were being applied unfairly and an example of this could be found in the Ngaanyatjarra Lands in Western Australia.

"The rental arrears across the whole lands, across 12 communities, have gone up from $50,000 to $350,000, in the short space of time since CDP's been introduced," she said.

ANU researcher Dr Inge Kral said she had spent 30 years working in remote communities and the latest scheme had left people struggling to feed themselves.

"People with no money in families, there's no money for food, there's certainly no money for clothes — people are starving, people are begging," she said.

"The whole infrastructure around stores is collapsing because there isn't the reliable secure income coming in."

According to the ANU report, the Centrelink-based system is impractical and devised by Canberra bureaucrats who are out-of-touch with remote community life.

Ms Kral also said people in remote areas were not being properly assessed for the disability pension and could be on the phone to Centrelink for "days", with little regard for language barriers.

"We are not kidding. This is not made up. People sit there for days," she said.

"Someone told me a story the other day about a man who really should be on a disability pension.

"They're now without money, they're on an eight-week no-payment penalty, they haven't eaten for three days, they've got no money coming in and they can't effectively engage with Centrelink by themselves.".

The scheme applies to about 34,000 people, mostly Indigenous, across Australia and was introduced by Mr Scullion in July last year.

CDP increased the number of work hours required for welfare payments to 25 per week, for at least 46 weeks a year.

The last Question Time of 2016 and the last hurrah for Malcolm Bligh Turnbull?

The Guardian, 4 December 2016:

Parliament ended the year with a mixture of bang and whimper.

The whimper was the legislative “fight”. It says a fair bit about the way the government is travelling that the big political issue was the backpacker tax (important as it is for farmers, it is not one that should have caused such grief) and the passing of the Building and Construction Commission legislation. This has been so laughably altered from its original intent that the main issue for unions is ensuring the ABCC does adhere to the legislation – such as the requirement that the commissioner performs his or her functions “in an apolitical manner”.

The bang was a protest that disrupted question time.

There was, of course, a lot of hand-wringing over the protest – there always is when the left protests in Australia. After all, we had much the same response about disruption of democracy from the powers that be a couple years ago when students protested against Christopher Pyne during an episode of Q&A.

The protesters certainly did disrupt the proceedings of parliament, but they did no one any harm and were no danger to anyone. Their putting a stop to the proceedings of question time actually produced a net benefit to the nation’s IQ, even if only for three-quarters of an hour.

That’s not to say question time is unimportant or always brain dulling in its idiocy. There are times, mostly by accident, when something worthwhile does occur, but for the most part it is just a poorly scripted play performed by mediocre actors……

It should be noted that on Wednesday it took Malcolm Turnbull two sentences to deliver his answer about attacking the ALP, while on Thursday it took him three.

Notionally his answer was about the passing of the legislation to reinstate the ABCC, but perhaps because the legislation was so neutered he felt on surer ground to talk about the ALP’s faults rather than his government’s achievements.

The ABCC legislation, however, nicely encapsulated the government’s policy process – rushed, sloppy and actually failing to deliver what was intended.

The government was so desperate to get the legislation passed that it agreed to all manner of amendments – including those that were highly protectionist, made the commissioner’s position virtually untenable, and those that didn’t make a lot of sense……

How I’ll remember Prime Minister Malcolm Bligh Turnbull during Question Time in 2016:

Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

SBS News, 6 December 2016:

Voter support for Malcolm Turnbull has fallen to its lowest level since he seized power, the latest Newspoll shows.

The Coalition heads into Christmas with its two-party preferred vote up from 47 to 48 per cent but still trailing Labor, which has notched up its sixth successive lead, on 52 per cent, the poll taken for The Australian newspaper shows.

Mr Turnbull's standing has again fallen, with his rating as better prime minister dropping two points to 41 per cent, the lowest level since he toppled Tony Abbott as leader 15 months ago.

The prime minister's standing has tumbled 18 points over the course of this year.

His margin over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, who is favoured by 32 per cent as the preferred prime minister, has dropped from a 39-point lead in January to just nine points.

The Newspoll of 1629 voters, taken from Thursday to Sunday, shows the government's primary vote has gained one point to 39 per cent and Labor's primary vote fell two points to a two-month low of 36 per cent.

The Greens remain unchanged on 10 per cent while support for independents and other parties edged up from 14 to 15 per cent.

Yet another attempt to reform Australia's political donation rules set for 2017

ABC News, 7 December 2016:

Declared donations and payments to Australian political parties is about to top $1 billion, a new analysis of data shows.

But the true figure could be triple that because donations under $13,200 do not have to be declared.

"It's very hard to know because disclosure laws in Australia are very opaque, they're not transparent," Monash University's Dr Charles Livingstone said.

"I wouldn't be surprised if it was twice or three times as much as been declared, at least."

Dr Livingstone has studied political donations and in particular how donations made by the gambling industry have influenced public policy.

He says the current laws are "corrupt, they're opaque and they undermine democracy".

The new database has been compiled by The Greens from donations and payments declared to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) between 1998 and 2015.

The current funding and disclosure scheme has been in place since the 1984 election, but the electoral commission website only publishes returns from 1998 onwards.

An analysis by the ABC shows tracing the source of the donations is also difficult, because more than 20 per cent of the money was funnelled through organisations called associated entities.

Labor and The Greens are expected to push for reforms to political donation laws when Parliament resumes next year.

They want a ban on foreign donations and for all donations above $1,000 to be declared…..

Donations and payments declared to the AEC between 1998 and 2015 have been collated into a central, searchable database.

It includes receipts for $994,822,181 in donations and other payments called "other receipts" or "subscriptions".

The largest corporate donors over the 17-year period were:

Queensland Nickel Pty Ltd — $21,664,196

One of Clive Palmer's companies, now in liquidation, has donated to his own political party and to the Liberal and National parties.

Mineralogy Pty Ltd — $14,692,636

Another of Clive Palmer's companies that made significant donations to his own party and to the Liberal and National parties, despite reporting consecutive losses to the ASX.

Village Roadshow Limited — $5,022,263

The company made large payments to both the Labor and Liberal parties while lobbying for a crackdown on digital piracy.

Pratt Holdings — $4,609,733

Linked to Melbourne's well-connected Pratt family who made their fortune with Visy Industries, a paper, packaging and recycling company.

The most generous industries over the 17-year period were:

The property industry — $64,099,161

Financial and insurance industries — $37,078,539

Pharmaceutical/health — $12,625,078

In terms of total donations, the most generous individuals were:

Lord Michael Ashcroft — $1,772,938

A conservative UK businessman who has donated to the Liberal Party in Australia.

Graeme Wood — $1,680,795

A digital entrepreneur and environmentalist who has donated to The Greens.

Henry Ray Gillham — $1,035,900

A Queensland grazier who stood as a candidate for the Citizens Electoral Council in the 2004 federal election, but forgot to fill in his own ballot paper correctly. His donations were all to the CEC……

The searchable database Democracy 4 Sale was established in 2002 and was expanded this year. It now contains all donation receipts reported to the AEC since 1998 and includes donations which were declared by the donor but not the party.