Australia 2018: State of the Climate

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate 2018, December 2018:

“Australia's weather and climate are changing in response to a warming global climate. Australia has warmed just over 1 °C since 1910, with most warming since 1950. This warming has seen an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events and increased the severity of drought conditions during periods of below-average rainfall. Eight of Australia’s top ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2005.

The year-to-year changes in Australia’s climate are mostly associated with natural climate variability such as El Niño and La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean and phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Indian Ocean. This natural variability now occurs on top of the warming trend, which can modify the impact of these natural drivers on the Australian climate.

Increases in temperature are observed across Australia in all seasons with both day and night-time temperatures showing warming. The shift to a warmer climate in Australia is accompanied by more extreme daily heat events. Record-warm monthly and seasonal temperatures have been observed in recent years, made more likely by climate change.”

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Report at a glance

The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO play an important role in monitoring, analysing and communicating observed changes in Australia's climate.

This fifth, biennial State of the Climate report draws on the latest monitoring, science and projection information to describe variability and changes in Australia’s climate. Observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability.

These changes affect many Australians, particularly the changes associated with increases in the frequency or intensity of heat events, fire weather and drought. Australia will need to plan for and adapt to some level of climate change. This report is a synthesis of the science informing our understanding of climate in Australia and includes new information about Australia’s climate of the past, present and future. The science underpinning this report will help inform a range of economic, environmental and social decision-making and local vulnerability assessments, by government, industry and communities.

Key points

Australia

·         Australia's climate has warmed just over 1 °C since 1910 leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

·         Oceans around Australia have warmed by around 1 °C since 1910, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.

·         Sea levels are rising around Australia, increasing the risk of inundation.

·         The oceans around Australia are acidifying (the pH is decreasing).

·         April to October rainfall has decreased in the southwest of Australia. Across the same region May–July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 20 per cent since 1970.

·         There has been a decline of around 11 per cent in April–October rainfall in the southeast of Australia since the late 1990s.

·         Rainfall has increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.

·         Streamflow has decreased across southern Australia. Streamflow has increased in northern Australia where rainfall has increased.

·         There has been a long-term increase in extreme fire weather, and in the length of the fire season, across large parts of Australia.

Global

·         Concentrations of all the major long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase, with carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations rising above 400 ppm since 2016 and the CO₂ equivalent (CO₂-e) of all gases reaching 500 ppm for the first time in at least 800,000 years.

·         Emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase and are the main contributor to the observed growth in atmospheric CO₂.

·         The world’s oceans, especially in the southern hemisphere, are taking up more than 90 per cent of the extra energy stored by the planet as a result of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.

·         Global sea level has risen by over 20 cm since 1880, and the rate has been accelerating in recent decades.

·         Globally averaged air temperature has warmed by over 1 °C since records began in 1850, and each of the last four decades has been warmer than the previous one.

Future

Australia is projected to experience:

·         Further increases in sea and air temperatures, with more hot days and marine heatwaves, and fewer cool extremes.

·         Further sea level rise and ocean acidification.

·         Decreases in rainfall across southern Australia with more time in drought, but an increase in intense heavy rainfall throughout Australia.

US President Donald Trump ends 2018 as he began it....

Still under investgation by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, still misusing family 'charities', still tweeting his venom and spite and still on a semi-permanent golfing holiday while his administration falls into chaos.

HuffPost, 18 December 2018:

WASHINGTON ― President Donald Trump, clad in a golf shirt and golf hat under a warm South Florida sun, hitting a drive off the tee while Secret Service agents protecting him are forced to work without paychecks, possibly for weeks, because Congress wouldn’t pay for Trump’s “Great Wall.”

Such is the nightmare public relations scenario facing the White House less than a week before the Department of Homeland Security and other key government agencies run out of money at midnight Friday while Trump is scheduled to fly that day to his Mar-a-Lago resort for a 16-day vacation.

The U.S. Secret Service is among the half-dozen agencies in the quarter-million-employee DHS, which also includes the U.S. Coast Guard and the Transportation Security Administration. Other major agencies facing a shutdown include the departments of state, treasury and interior. Many of the affected employees would be deemed essential and be forced to work anyway. None would be paid during the shutdown and would have to get by on savings or short-term loans.

Rick Tyler, a former aide to the man who engineered the last extended government shutdown in 2013, Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, said that Trump will cave in the days to come.

“The only leverage in shutting down the government is who gets the blame for it. And he’s already taken the blame for it,” Tyler said, predicting that Trump will approve whatever Congress gives him.......

HEADLINES OF THE WEEK

“Weighed down by sex and sleaze, the Coalition ends the year the way it started”  [The Sydney Morning Herald, 21 December 2018]

“365 days of failure: how Australia’s elites failed us in 2018”  [Crikey, 21 December 2018]

Still no hope of a genuine national energy policy as crew on the sinking liner SS Liberal Party brawl on deck

Financial Review, 19 December 2018:

NSW Climate and Energy Minister Don Harwin vowed to push on with his crusade to "end the Canberra climate wars" after federal minister Angus Taylor derailed his proposal to plot a national pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 at an acrimonious Council of Australian Governments' meeting.

Tempers flared at the meeting of energy ministers in Adelaide after Mr Taylor used an obscure procedural rule to block Mr Harwin's motion for a net zero emissions pathway. A furious Mr Harwin said that if Mr Taylor was going to use obscure procedural rules to block a motion supported by most state and territory energy ministers "be it on your own head".

The bitter split between the NSW and federal coalition governments comes as Gladys Berejiklian's NSW Coalition government faces a March 23 election in which climate policy looms large after voters sharply rejected the Morrison government's climate change agnostic energy policies at the Wentworth byelection in October and the Victorian state election in November.

Mr Harwin said in a statement after the meeting: "I am very disappointed by the actions of the federal government at COAG Energy Council in Adelaide today.

"The refusal, on procedural grounds, to let the vital matter of restoring an emissions obligation into national energy policy be discussed is extraordinary. NSW will continue to pursue this critical matter with COAG Energy Council."

…..the NSW-federal government stoush dominated the aftermath of the meeting as Mr Harwin told reporters he was furious that "the Commonwealth used the rule book to try and shutdown a discussion on emissions".

"As a sign of how out of touch they are, they wouldn't let us have the discussion," Mr Harwin said. "NSW is not giving up on this. It's absolutely imperative that we end the Canberra climate wars. "

Pet care in the home at during the festive season

https://www.123rf.com

The Daily Examiner, 18 December 2018, p.7:

We’d like to make sure your pet stays happy and healthy this silly season. Here’s a list of potential pet hazards to watch out for:

1. Christmas dinner and leftovers are too rich for our pets and can cause nasty tummy upsets and even pancreatitis. Stick to “pet approved” treats.

2. Macadamia nuts are popular at Christmas and can be toxic for dogs, leading to muscle weakness, vomiting and tremors.

3. Sultanas and raisins can cause kidney failure in dogs.

4. Barbecue skewers can be catastrophic for pets so take care to ensure your pet doesn’t accidentally ingest a skewer (which falls on the ground for example) and never feed your pet cooked bones - both can lead to the need for emergency intestinal surgery.

5. Chocolate – dogs can’t metabolise the theobromine in chocolate, and ingestion can lead to an increased heart rate, tremors, seizures and even death. The darker the chocolate the more toxic and the size of the dog and amount ingested also plays a part in the severity of the symptoms.

6. Decorations such as tinsel and fairy lights are very attractive to pets but can lead to a gastric obstruction if eaten.

7. Ribbons from presents are super attractive to cats and if ingested can lead to a nasty gastric obstruction requiring emergency surgery.

8. The Christmas tree might be an attractive indoor “pee tree” but can also be a falling hazard.

9. Lots of guests can cause your pet to become stressed and even lead to them trying to escape – make sure they have a safe and quiet place to retreat to.

10. Christmas lilies can cause kidney failure in cats. The stamen, leaves and stems are all potentially toxic as is the water they are stored in, so it’s best not to have them in the first place.

11. Snakes are out and about and will be all summer so take care in long grass, around water or areas where there are rodents (grain sheds and chook pens).

12. Heatstroke – never leave your pet in the car during the warmer weather. Even on a mild day the temperature inside a car can reach a dangerous level in minutes. Leaving a window down will not help either, so don’t risk it! If you have any questions about the health/safety of your pet, we are always here to put your mind at ease.

CREDIT: Riverbank Animal Hospital

State of Play December 2018: Adani Group and the proposed Carmichael Mine in Queensland

Financial Review, 20 December 2018:

Ten of the world's top insurance companies, including Australian groups Suncorp and QBE and global insurer AXA, say they won't insure Indian energy group Adani's controversial $2 billion Carmichael coal mine in Queensland, an activist group says.

Market Forces, an anti-fossil fuel activist group backed by Friends of the Earth, also said AXA had indicated it would not renew its current insurance covering the Carmichael rail line when it comes up in March 2020.

Market Forces executive director Julien Vincent said the Paris-based global insurer had said in response to inquiries that: "Regarding the Carmichael mine, we confirm that: 'We do not currently cover the Carmichael mine's assets, neither directly nor through packages, and we do not intend to do so in the future; We currently have a multi-year policy to partly cover the railway asset which will lapse in 2020 and which we shall not renew.'"

AXA also said Adani's Carmichael project "is a banned investment both for our equity and fixed income holdings"…..

Market Forces asked global insurers about their attitude to the Carmichael project, after a successful campaign to dissuade Australian and global banks from backing the mine resulted in it being shrunk to a fraction of its original $16.5 billion size and self-financed by Adani.

Other companies that explicitly refused to insure the mine or previously pledged not to provide cover for new coal projects include the world's biggest insurers and reinsurers, Allianz, AXA, Swiss Re and Munich Re; the first major US insurer to take action on coal, FM Global; and major European insurers Generali, Zurich and SCOR.

Other major insurers have not ruled out insuring the project, including many American insurers, so Adani will still likely be able to secure insurance. These include Hannover Re, Berkshire Hathaway and AIG......

ABC News, 18 December 2018:

The CSIRO has found serious flaws in Adani's key water management plan to protect an ancient springs complex near its proposed Carmichael coal mine, threatening to further delay the controversial project.

The ABC can reveal Australia's peak scientific body has raised concerns about Adani's Groundwater Dependent Ecosystem Management Plan (GDEMP), which is designed to minimise impacts on ecosystems including the nationally important Doongmabulla Springs.

The Federal Department of Environment and Energy asked the CSIRO and Geoscience Australia for an independent scientific review of Adani's GDEMP.

The ABC understands one of the CSIROS's key concerns is the level of groundwater draw-down that could be caused at the springs by the mine's operations.

Conservationists and some scientists warn the springs could permanently dry up under Adani's plan to drain billions of litres of groundwater a year for its proposed mine.

The source of the ancient springs remains in doubt…..

Other concerns include the possible groundwater impacts from Adani's water bores at the mine site.

The CSIRO also found that some of the data used by Adani in its plan was not verified.

The CSIRO has told the federal environment department that Adani needs to do more work on its GDEMP and to verify its data.

The ABC understands Queensland's Department of Environment and Science (DES) wrote to Adani last week saying it will not look at the company's GDEMP again until the concerns raised by the CSIRO are resolved.

In August the ABC revealed the mining giant's most recent draft plan to protect the Doongmabulla Spring failed to address regulator demands to protect the oasis.

"The GDEMP needs to identify the source aquifer of the Doongmabulla Spring Complex and mitigation measures to protect the springs," the DES told the ABC in statement.

"Preliminary advice from CSIRO requires Adani to update the plan.

"Two environmental plans still need to be approved before significant disturbance can commence at the Carmichael Coal Mine.

"These plans are the Groundwater Dependent Ecosystem Management Plan and a Black Throated Finch Management Plan.

"The Queensland Government has been clear that the [mine] project must stack up on its own merits, both financially and environmentally."

Last month Adani announced construction would begin on the Carmichael mine, with company chief executive Lucas Dow saying the project would be "100 per cent financed" from within the Adani conglomerate.

But the mine would be significantly scaled back, with production expected to peak at 28 million tonnes compared to the projected 60 million tonnes under the original plan.

Nationals MP Andrew Broad behaves badly, then sinks into oblivion

Nationals MP for Mallee Andrew John Broad came into the Australian Parliament as part of the Abbott Coalition Government in 2013 and, continued as a backbencher in the Turnbull Coalition Government.

He became Assistant Minister to the Deputy Prime Minister in the Morrison Coalition Government on 28 August 2018.

So one could argue that he became a member of the House of Representatives and continued to be one under the leadership of prime ministers not known for a deep understanding of political or personal ethics and, so lacked guidance.

On the other hand one could surmise that his entry into conservative politics was a matter of like being naturally drawn to like. 

Readers can make up their own minds about forty-three year old Andrew "James Bond" Broad, son of Christian missionaries and winner of the 2016 Christian Values Award - a man who allegedly proudly boasted that he knows how to "ride a horse, fly a plane & f*ck my woman".

On 17 December 2018 Broad resigned from the front bench due to the circumstances surrounding this boast and questions concerning who paid his expenses for a Hong Kong trip.

It would appear that a private entity ( perhaps even the man himself) paid for Broad's flight to and from Hong Kong and accommodation, but he was happy to stick taxpayers with the cost of connecting flights in Australia until he was caught out by the media - wining and dining an online escort “Sweet Sophia Rose” while away from his wife.

This was allegedly not the first attempt at online dalliance.

By 18 December Broad was the subject of a barrage of sexual misconduct allegations....with reports at least three other women have complained to the National Party about his behaviour over the past twelve months. 
Before noon that day he had announced he will not be standing for re-election in May 2019.

I rather think Andrew has singlehandedly sunk Prime Minster Scott Morrison's planned values-based election campaign.

If Morrison mentions the values held by himself and his Coalition government voters are likely to openly laugh remembering Andrew and Barnaby.