Cartoon of the Week

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@cathywilcox1

Northern NSW residents are still over-represented when it comes to smoking cigarettes

The Daily Examiner, 4 June 2019, p.7:

Northern NSW residents are still over-represented when it comes to smoking cigarettes.

Despite years of warnings and anti-smoking campaigns, statistics taken in 2016 reveal 20.3 per cent of population in the North Coast Local Health District is smoking.

The rate has remained largely unchanged for years as a report released by the Cancer Institute showed the number of smokers in 2011 stood at 20.4 per cent

This contrasted with statewide smoking trends which showed the number of smokers had dropped considerably over the past decade, down from almost 20 percent to just 15.2 per cent in 2017.

There was a clear difference between metropolitan and regional areas, with city health districts recording bigger falls and one regional health district, Western NSW, recording an increase of four per cent since 2012.

Males aged 25-34 were the most likely to be lighting up as 25.9 per cent of the group were smokers compared to 11.8 per cent of women the same age.

In fact, the only age group in which women out-smoked men was in the 55-64 and 65-74 categories and in both cases it was only a one per cent difference.

A higher proportion of women reported smoking while pregnant, with Northern NSW recording a rate five per cent above the state average of 8.3 per cent......

So who is to blame for the new Morrison Government?

As of 4:09pm on Thursday 6 June 2019 an est. 6,613,352 Australian citizens had voted for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition at the 18 May 2019 federal election, by either directly giving their first preference to one or the other of these two political parties or placing them high on the range of second preference choices printed on ballot papers.

So let’s get one thing clear, it is not the fault of any one state or territory that the hard right Morrison Coalition Government was returned to power. It is not the fault of Labor or the Greens.

Full responsibility for the election result lies with those est. 6,613,352 people and, they know who they are.

They are the voters now personally responsible for any and all actions of the Morrison Government, from the date government ministers were sworn-in post-election to the day the 2022 federal election is held.

To all those individuals I say this:

If the national economy tanks in the next three years – it’s your fault;

If wages fall even further behind the cost of living for low and middle income households – it’s your fault;

If there is no significant increase in the Newstart allowance meaning that young and older job seekers continue to starve in an economy which has limited job vacancies – it’s your fault;

If the national debt increases even further to cope with reckless government spending and dubious overgenerous government tenders – it’s your fault;

If the annual budget blows out into significant deficit because so many greedy people are joining the franking credit rort – it’s your fault;

If Liberal and National parliamentarians become even more profligate while on the public purse – it’s your fault;

If there are more budget funding cuts to essential services, including health, public education, welfare, domestic violence, legal assistance – it’s your fault;

If more people suicide because of the federal government's flawed and punitive debt recovery system – it’s your fault;

If there is an increase in the privatisation of government services with a corresponding decrease in adequate service delivery – it’s your fault;

If the cost of child care continues to make life economically difficult for women wanting to participate in the workforce – it’s your fault;

If women pushed onto the ParentsNext scheme continue to be punished by the Morrison Government by the withholding of money to feed their babies and small children – it’s your fault; 

If young first home buyers continue to be squeezed out of the housing market by investors and property speculators – it’s your fault; 

If there is an increase in discrimination against vulnerable groups, including the LBGTI community – it’s your fault;

If human rights abuses continue in immigration detention centres – it’s your fault; 

If the frail elderly don't have access to timely free urgent dental care – it’s your fault;

If the National Disability Insurance Scheme continues to fall short of its legislated responsibilities and administrative goals, leaving the needs of clients unmet – it’s your fault;

If the poor continue to have limited access to and no real equity in the benefits derived from a modern democratic society – it’s your fault;

If the discriminatory cashless welfare card is extended to more areas across the country and/or to wider categories of welfare recipients – it’s your fault;

If blatant water rorts and water thefts continue and more towns/cities run low or are completely out of drinking water over the next three years – it’s your fault;

If environmental degradation of the river systems in the Murray-Darling Basin is not halted – it’s your fault;

If a federal government data breach compromises your privacy or the privacy of a friend or family member – it’s your fault;

If the number of citizens arrested and tried for calmly speaking truth to power begins to rise – it’s your fault;

If the Morrison Government loses China’s goodwill as our largest trading partner in order to curry favour with US President Donald Trump – it’s your fault; and

If climate change hammers this nation into the ground over the next three years – it’s your fault.

There are no excuses, there is no magical do over. The est. 6,613,352 Australian citizens who either voted directly or indirectly for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition chose the political path we are now on.

These people alone are to blame for whatever flawed or corrupt actions the Morrison Government takes and the consequences of that government's neglect or indifference during its current term in office.

I reiterate. Each of you brought the second Morrison Government into existence. You own that fact. So don't even try to deflect the blame onto others.

A word or two on the Australian economy…….

“The financial year ending in 24 days will be recorded as Australia’s worst since 1992, when the nation was struggling to recover from the 1991 recession.”  [Contributing Editor Michael Pascoe, The New Daily, 5 June 2019]

With wages growth stagnant and a rise in unemployment the slowing economy became even slower last month as consumers kept their wallets closed, perhaps sensing the uncertainty behind Prime Minister Scott 'Liar  from the Shire' Morrison's empty brag of a strong economy during the recent federal election campaign.

Australian Treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong Josh Frydenberg let the cat out of the bag when speaking with the banks ahead of the 4 June 2019 Reserve Bank official cash rate cut when he was variously reported as admitting the economy faced significant problems or domestic and international economic challenges.  A few days later it was factors which weighed on the economy.

Here is how mainstream media and statisticians presented the situation........

The Age, 2 June 2019:

On the basis of the December quarter numbers Australia is already in a recession on a per capita basis. It has been there before in its record-setting period of economic expansion, but there is a sense this time that it will be lucky to avoid a contraction.

Slowing economic trends are unlikely to have reversed in the first quarter of 2019. We haven’t seen those March quarter numbers yet, but they are unlikely to be good, and may be bad. Political uncertainties will not have helped.

What is in prospect is the sort of outcome that will compound the concerning result in the second half of 2018 when GDP slowed dramatically to 1 percent year-on-year.

If that slowdown becomes entrenched, Australia will tip into a recession for the first time in a generation with all the consequences that will follow. This includes an indelible political context.

After six years in office, the Coalition cannot reasonably blame its predecessor for tepid wages growth, weak productivity gains, spiralling household debt, a doubling of net government debt, and a depreciation of the Australian dollar by about 30 per cent since a Tony Abbott-led government took office in 2013.

Interest rate cuts may further weaken the dollar. This would be good for commodities exporters, bad for consumers.

A booming property sector fuelled by easy credit and lax Foreign Investment Review Board strictures on Chinese money flooding the market contributed to an illusion of wellbeing, the so-called wealth effect: or, perhaps, better described as the “wealth illusion’’.

Cuts to interest rates may give the economy a bump. The removal of the spectre of a Labor government, at odds with aspirational Australia, may encourage investment.

However, what should be concerning the government, as it prepares for the first session of the 46th parliament in early July, is that unemployment in April ticked up to 5.2 per cent from 5 per cent, and underemployment jumped to 8.5 per cent.

Finally, this brings us to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s pledge to bring the budget back into surplus in 2020-21 and begin paying down debt. If a recession bites that undertaking will not be worth the budget papers on which it is written.

The question will then become whether - and how quickly - the Morrison government can bring itself to admit its budgetary projections, reaffirmed by a docile Treasury in its pre-election economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO), misfired.

Rather than surpluses as far the eye can see and tax cuts on the horizon it would be dealing with an entirely different scenario.

What would be needed in that case is real stimulus for capital works projects rather than short-term fixes in the form of tax cuts that might be good for the sale of Harvey Norman flat-screen televisions, but will do little for wages growth or the economy overall.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 4 June 2019:

Retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in April

Australian retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in April 2019, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a rise of 0.3 per cent in March 2019.

"There were mixed results across industries" said Ben Faulkner, ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, "with falls in Household goods retailing (-0.9 per cent), Cafes, restaurant and takeaway food services (-0.7 per cent), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-1.2 per cent), which were offset by rises in Other retailing (0.8 per cent), Department stores (1.8 per cent), and Food retailing (0.2 per cent)."

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in New South Wales (-0.4 per cent), Victoria (-0.4 per cent), the Northern Territory (-0.5 per cent), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.2 per cent). There were rises in Queensland (0.7 per cent), South Australia (0.6 per cent), Western Australia (0.1 per cent), and Tasmania (0.3 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in April 2019, following a 0.2 per cent rise in March 2019. Compared to April 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in April 2019, which was unchanged from March 2019. In April 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.4 per cent to total retail.

More detailed industry analysis and further information on the statistical methodology is available in Retail Trade, Australia (cat no. 8501.0).

Reserve Bank of Australia. media release, 4 June 2019:

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. The Board took this decision to support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target.

The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although the downside risks stemming from the trade disputes have increased. Growth in international trade remains weak and the increased uncertainty is affecting investment intentions in a number of countries. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy, while addressing risks in the financial system. In most advanced economies, inflation remains subdued, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up.

Global financial conditions remain accommodative. Long-term bond yields and risk premiums are low. In Australia, long-term bond yields are at historically low levels. Bank funding costs have also declined further, with money-market spreads having fully reversed the increases that took place last year. The Australian dollar has depreciated a little over the past few months and is at the low end of its narrow range of recent times.

The central scenario remains for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent in 2019 and 2020. This outlook is supported by increased investment in infrastructure and a pick-up in activity in the resources sector, partly in response to an increase in the prices of Australia's exports. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for household consumption, which is being affected by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices. Some pick-up in growth in household disposable income is expected and this should support consumption.

Employment growth has been strong over the past year, labour force participation has been increasing, the vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. Despite these developments, there has been little further inroads into the spare capacity in the labour market of late. The unemployment rate had been steady at around 5 per cent for some months, but ticked up to 5.2 per cent in April. The strong employment growth over the past year or so has led to a pick-up in wages growth in the private sector, although overall wages growth remains low. A further gradual lift in wages growth is expected and this would be a welcome development. Taken together, these labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain a lower rate of unemployment.

The recent inflation outcomes have been lower than expected and suggest subdued inflationary pressures across much of the economy. Inflation is still however anticipated to pick up, and will be boosted in the June quarter by increases in petrol prices. The central scenario remains for underlying inflation to be 1¾ per cent this year, 2 per cent in 2020 and a little higher after that.

The adjustment in established housing markets is continuing, after the earlier large run-up in prices in some cities. Conditions remain soft, although in some markets the rate of price decline has slowed and auction clearance rates have increased. Growth in housing credit has also stabilised recently. Credit conditions have been tightened and the demand for credit by investors has been subdued for some time. Mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.

Today's decision to lower the cash rate will help make further inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. It will assist with faster progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.

Climate change litigation and Australia

Pointing out the potential risks to business and government of ignoring or denying the reality of climate  change.....

The Canberra Times, 29 May 2019:

Since the late 1990s, Australian politics on climate change has been divisive.

Although Australia signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, it did not ratify it until 2007. 

Then, in 2011, the Clean Energy Act purporting to reduce greenhouse emissions was passed, only to be repealed in 2014.

In 2016, Australia ratified the Paris Agreement and the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol; however, any serious action on climate change remains to be seen.

At the same time, some states and territories also have emissions reduction targets. 

The uncoordinated approach is a problem for at least two important reasons.

First, climate change is an ever-increasing phenomenon, with tremendous impact on corporate, social and political discourse. Any meaningful legal framework to govern climate change requires the development of a legal consensus at the federal level, in line with international commitments.

Second, there is a rising wave of climate change-related litigation globally which is headed for Australia. Climate change litigation 2.0 (targeting companies) and climate change litigation 3.0 (targeting governments) will sink Australia, unless drastic measures are implemented.

Under the current legal regime, company directors may only be liable if found to be in breach of their duty of care or for failing to address a foreseeable risk. However, guidance from case law suggests that it is difficult to establish that the actions or omissions of a particular entity or director caused or contributed harm to be suffered by another. With the arrival of climate change litigation 2.0, this will all change.

For one, litigation 2.0 will force companies to assess and report on the risks of climate change and potentially set out plans for mitigating those risks. The recent tide of comments from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority and the Reserve Bank of Australia are a testament to this.

Companies and their directors could soon face liability (including personal liability) if they fail to assess and address risks relating to climate change. Investors, shareholders and even communities will be able to recover losses and seek damages from companies and their directors, auditors and advisors, for failing to assess and mitigate risks.

As major climate change attribution studies emerge to assist in tracing particular weather events with greenhouse gasses, causation will be easier to establish. It is likely that in the future, courts will rely on such studies to conclude that a particular entity has contributed, at least in some proportion, to a particular harm……

Although unprecedented and unheard of in Australia, climate change litigation 3.0 will be the next phase. It will allow Australians to bring action against the government for failing to mitigate risks.

Claims of this nature around the world are already proving to be quite successful. 

The Urgenda litigation in the Netherlands is the leading example. In that case, a Dutch NGO argued that the Netherlands Government had breached its duty of care to the Dutch people by failing to mitigate the risks of climate change and reducing greenhouse gases. The remedy ordered by the court was that the Netherlands Government reduce emissions by at least 25 per cent by the end of 2020….. [my yellow highlighting]

It should be noted that on 8 February 2019 the NSW Land and Environment Court in its judgment Gloucester Resources Limited v Minister for Planning [2019] NSWLEC 7 accepted that climate change formed part of critical reasons to reject a mine development.

Gloucester Resources decided not to appeal this decision and the proposed 830ha Rocky Hill Coal Mine in the Hunter Valley region will not proceed. 

Australia's national greenhouse gas emissions are still rising according to Morrison Government data

The Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Coalition Government has always taken a desultory approach to publishing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions data.

On 24 May 2019 it finally presented the United Nations with National Inventory Report 2017 and its last published quarterly report to the Australian people was in September 2018.

That 3rd quarter 2018 update stated that:

Emissions for the year to September 2018 are estimated to be 536 Mt CO2 -e, up 0.9 per cent (4.6 Mt CO2 -e) on the previous year, primarily due to increased LNG exports (19.7 per cent).

Only three sectors in this graph show any real improvement since 1990 and even these become somewhat static after 2013.

Total emissions have steadily risen in the years following 2013 until in September 2016 they had reached 527.2 Mt of CO2-e, by September 2017 533.3 Mt of CO2-e, by March 2018 535.8 Mt of CO2-e and by September 2018 our national emissions were 536 Mt CO2-e.

The Morrison Government has informed the United Nations that its Preliminary estimates for 2018 indicate total net emissions of 537.4 Mt CO2-e with increases in stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions and decreases in emissions from electricity.

Within this figure is a preliminary estimate for total 2018 fugitive emissions from the gas and oil sector which was almost 30 million tonnes CO2-e. With flaring and venting accounting for est. 69 percent of this figure (See Figure 3.7 in National Inventory Report 2017). This venting and flaring primarily contains carbon dioxide and methane gases.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported on 29 May 2019:

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 rose for a fourth year in a row, an increase at odds with the country's Paris climate pledge, according to a government submission to the United Nations.

The National Inventory Report to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change showed emissions last year were 537 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (which include all greenhouse gases), based on preliminary figures.

That tally, which includes changes to land-use and forestry, was up 0.4 per cent from 2017's 534.7 million tonnes of CO2-e.

The Morrison government is due to release its full figures for 2018 emissions by the end of this month. The UN report provides an indication of which way the trajectory will be pointed.

Rather laughably the Sydney Morning Herald journalist who wrote this article appears to have expected the Morrison Government to have given a full accounting of Australia’s 2018 greenhouse gas emissions by 31 May 2019.

Five days later came news of what has become the usual complaint along with the usual response from a Coalition federal government trying to find new ways of burying the bad news that Australia's greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. 

The Guardian, 3 June 2019:

Labor and the Greens have demanded the government immediately release national greenhouse emissions data, and have warned the new emissions reduction minister could be in contempt of parliament for missing the deadline to publish the figures.

Angus Taylor’s first act in his new role was to miss a Senate-set deadline on Friday for the publication of Australia’s emissions data for the December 2018 quarter.

The Senate passed an order last year that requires the minister to publish the quarterly greenhouse gas inventory no later than five months after the end of each quarter.

For the December quarter that date was 31 May.

The government, via a statement from the environment department, said late on Friday: “We anticipate the quarterly update of Australia’s national greenhouse gas inventory: December 2018 will be released soon.”

But Labor’s climate and energy spokesman, Mark Butler, said Taylor “must immediately release the latest emissions data”.

“Angus Taylor has failed his first task as new emissions reduction minister,” Butler said. “This is a disgrace and shows total disregard to the Australian people and Senate process.

“But really it’s no surprise considering Angus Taylor has continually argued against climate action and is part of a government that has continually lied about what their emissions data actually shows, which is that emissions are rising and we’re not on track to meet our international climate commitments.”

The government has been under pressure because its climate policy has been failing to stall Australia’s emissions, which have been increasing every year for the past four years.

The Senate passed the order for rolling quarterly deadlines last year to address delays in the publication of national carbon pollution figures.

Note:

* For a full breakdown of the 2017 emission figures go to Excel sheets in Australia. 2019 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table at https://unfccc.int/documents/195780.

* For a list of all available Quarterly Updates of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory go to  http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science-data/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications#quarterly.

Yaegl Yarning Circle on Birrinba (Clarence River) foreshore at Maclean

The Daily Examiner, 29 May 2019

The Daily Examiner, 29 May 2019, p.5:

A location in Maclean once synonymous with exclusion of indigenous people from the town’s business district has been turned into a symbol of inclusion.

The site of the Yarning Circle, in MacNaughton Place, was chosen because it once marked the “demarcation line” that blocked the Yaegl people’s access to the centre of Maclean.

A director of the Yaegl Traditional Owners Aboriginal Corporation, Dianne Chapman, said the line was not something lost in the past.

“The significance of the site is that a lot of our elders who have passed on would fish there,” Ms Chapman said.

“They would come across from Ulugundahi (Island). Because of that demarcation line they would have to wait there until they got permission.

“Back in the old days there used to be ‘dog tags’ they called them. They were cards that enabled certain people, under the Aboriginal Protection Act, to go to places.

“Not everyone, just certain people that they could give permission to do that.”

Ms Chapman said her grandfather had been one of the people who the authorities at the time entrusted with one of those cards.

“It wasn’t that far away,” she said. “There’s a lot for the wider community to realise what happened to Aboriginal people.”

Ms Chapman said the yarning circle would give the local community a chance to catch up on the region’s local heritage going back tens of thousands of years.

“It’s sad a lot of the local community know more about Scottish people here than they do about Aboriginal people,” she said.

She said the yarning circle was somewhere Aboriginal people could meet to talk and reminisce and share culture based on the spoken word.

“We are a culture based on language and face-to-face contact,” she said. “This is how we connect to each other and our land. It’s who we are.”