How will up to 7.2 million Australians respond to Scott Morrison's willingness to abandon them in the worst global recession since the Great Depression

"Fiscal measures will need to be scaled up if the stoppages to economic activity are persistent, or the pickup in activity as restrictions are lifted is too weak."  [IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: THE GREAT LOCKDOWN, April 2020] 

Brisbane Times, 15 May 2020:

Something has changed in the Liberal Party since John Howard was prime minister. Key business lobbies now have such a grip they can frogmarch the government towards political suicide.

It is only weeks since a million Australians lost their jobs by government decree to protect us all from a health crisis. Most are yet to receive their first benefits, but the government has said the guiding principles on the way out will be self-reliance and personal responsibility.

The Prime Minister and the Treasurer have moved in recent weeks to flag that the JobSeeker and JobKeeper programs are a short-term aberration and will be returning to their traditional small-government, competitive-individualism philosophy.

‘‘Open markets will be central ... not government,’’ declared the Treasurer on Tuesday. ‘‘The values and principles that have guided us in the past ... encouraging personal responsibility, maximising personal choice, rewarding effort and risk-taking’’ will be central.

It is hard to imagine a more tone-deaf piece of communication to the hundreds of thousands of Australians who are now gripped by sleepless nights about where their next job is going to come from and whether they will lose their houses.

Social movement research has found that you only need 2.5 per cent of people to be in a political movement for it to be large enough to drive major political and social reform. That is enough for everyone to have friends and family involved and to feel personally connected to the issue.

Almost every Australian will have someone they love who has lost a job in the past six weeks. Telling people they are on their own has to be pretty much at the top of the "what not to do list" in the political leadership manual. Yet Scott Morrison is not an idiot or an ideologue, so why is he doing it?

Even if the government was privately planning this approach, you wouldn’t expect the Prime Minister to say it publicly. The announcements suggest he is having to quell his own political storm and there is a pile-on going on behind the scenes. It is the wrong message for most Australians, but it is the right message for those who dictate his grip on power.

Some of it will be the same Coalition ideologues cum powerbrokers who are worried the pandemic response is a symbolic loss. These tribal warriors are not going to let the fact the country is in the grip of an unfolding catastrophe distract them from the red team-blue team contest.

However, they are not the only force in play. Leaders of our largest businesses are embracing the maxim "Don’t waste a good crisis". They are circling the carcass of the not-yet-cold COVID economy, and seeking to take the opportunity to drive through some long-sought-after tax cuts and industrial relations reform.....

One has to wonder how Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg came to believe that the 1. 7 million people expected to be unemployed by September 2020 will fare well going into the worst recession since the Great Depression where the unemployment rate is predicted to be 13 per cent for starters. 

Or why he believes the up to 5.5 million workers, hanging onto insecure jobs which are only guaranteed for as long as businesses are receiving government wage subsidies for their workers, will all keep those jobs when the subsidy ends on 27 September 2020.

This is the changed reality that the Liberal & National parties must face:

The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 May 2020

If Scott Morrison continues down this track, what will Christmas look like?

Unemployment in Australia in March to May 2020

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Labor Force, Australia, April 2020, there were 832,500 unemployed persons at the end of April based on original data, which resulted in an unemployment rate of 6.3%.

That was a rise of 63,800 unemployed persons since the end of March 2020.

A number which could have been much higher if it were not that those registered to receive JobKeeper subsidised wage payments are considered employed - even those with no active job to go to.

On 14 May 2020 the Prime Minister announced a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.2% and the Treasurer stated that 594,000 people had lost their jobs since COVID-19 public health restrictions began to affect businesses.

However, both Morrison and Frydenberg fail to point out that those 594,000 newly unemployed are in addition to the est. 238,500 already unemployed persons‬. 

Even with JobKeeper payments now keeping unemployment figures down by an est. 3.3 to 5.5 million people Treasury expects that the unemployment rate will rise to around 10% by end of June 2020.

According to a Senate estimates hearing on 30 April 2020, an est. 400,000 more people are expected to lose their jobs by September, at which time the unemployment rate is predicted to be around 13%.

September is of course the month indicated by Morrison as the period in which he intends to start rolling back enhanced unemployment benefits - a month in which the Dept. of Social Services expects 1.7 million people to be receiving the Jobseeker payment.

According to the Morrison Government it expects to have returned 850,000 people to employment by the time all the public health restrictions have been lifted.

If in around four months time as many as 7.2 million Australians are expected to be either unemployed or in uncertain employment because their jobs depend on government subsidied wages, one wonders why the Morrison Government is boasting of so low a figure - less than 12% of that 7.2 million. 

Thanks a lot Scott Morrison & all those Lib-Nat goons who piled on China once he opened his mouth. The NSW Northern Rivers really appreciates the loss of trade

In mid-April 2020 Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne decided that the middle of a global pandemic and, with a domestic economy in freefall, was a good time to antagonise our biggest trading partner.

It didn't take long for National Party backbenchers to join these three Liberal Party ministers and mainstream media reported the situation thus.......   

"But given clear evidence that China is deeply unhappy with Australia’s aggressive calls for an inquiry, in a way that it sees as Australia teaming up with the Trump administration to point the blame at China, the foreign exchange markets are making up their own minds on the prospects of Australia being on the brink of a serious deterioration of ties with our largest trading partner." [The Australian, 13 May 2020] 

"Mr Morrison said Australia could not rule out that the virus escaped­ from a Wuhan lab, but “the most likely (origin) has been in a wildlife wet market”."  [The Australian, 6 May 2020]

"..it was immediately clear that the purpose of the Australian "initiative" was not to conduct a review of benefit to the whole world, but to engage in political warfare with the Chinese state, using failures of organisation and leadership as a stick with which to beat the state. This was underlined by the way in which the first Australian public mention of the need for such an inquiry, along with some words about "accountability and transparency'', came from Peter Dutton, otherwise in a witness protection program avoiding any transparency or accountability for Commonwealth failures to screen several thousand passengers and crew from cruise ships. Marise Payne took the idea further, if with every appearance of playing to a pre-prepared script several days later, before Morrison took extra steps to make the proposals unacceptable to the Chinese by advocating the equivalent of weapons inspectors battering down doors to catch those with secrets to hide."  

"Scott Morrison insists it would be "absolutely nonsense" to suggest the coronavirus started anywhere other than China. The prime minister is pushing ahead with calls for a global inquiry into the origins of the deadly disease despite diplomatic blowback from the Chinese government. "I don't think anybody is in any fantasy land about where it started - it started in China," he told 2GB radio on Friday. "What the world over needs to know - and there's a lot of support for this - is how did it start and what are the lessons to be learned."  [AAP Bulletin Wire, 1 May 2020]

"The Morrison Government is leading the international call for an independent review of the COVID-19 crisis to determine the origin of the virus and if more could have been done to slow its spread."  [The Mercury, 20 April 2020]

Morrison, Dutton, Payne & Co got the column inches and media attention they craved, but it is rural and regional areas like the NSW Northern Rivers which are bearing the brunt of their total lack of a genuinely diplomatic approach to China on the issue.....

The Daily Examiner, 15 May 2020:

Casino’s Northern Cooperative Meat Company is one of the four Australian abattoirs that China imposed an import ban on this week. 

The black-listing of the three Queensland and one NSW red meat abattoirs is believed to be a “trade war tactic” from Beijing as trade tensions between Australia and Chine rise. There are fears the bans from China come after Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent investigation into the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak. 

Northern Cooperative Meat Company chief executive Simon Stahl revealed the ban on imports relates directly to labelling and product description non-compliances. 

Mr Stahl was uncertain of the short or long term financial impacts to the business, but revealed NCMC production imports ranged from 15 to 25 per cent. 

“It’s too early to tell you about the financial impacts, I couldn’t put a figure on it at this point in time, could be a week, could be a month,” he said. “I’m always optimistic we can satisfy the authorities..... 

Food Leaders Australia general manager Bruce McConnel said it was unknown yet whether the bans were because of a breach of protocol or an act of political retribution. 

“The technical reasons have not been made available,” Mr McConnel said. “We’re not sure whether there has been a breach of protocol or if it’s pure political retaliation. 

“We’re awaiting details on how to alleviate tensions. “It’s not catastrophic, but it is a real issue that needs to be sorted out.” 

Mr McConnel said the banning of the Northern Co-operative Meat Company at Casino was a major concern for smaller beef producers, who use that meatworks to sell to China.

“The government need to get sorted how real are the technical aspects of this and how much is political tension around the relationship with China,” he said....

Finally good sense prevails over the proposed rezoning of rural land on Palmers Island

Yamba Welding & Engineering Pty Ltd has experienced a set back to its plans to establish a second boat building business in the Clarence River estuary - this time on land in School's Road, Palmers Island.

Founder and managing director Bill Collingburn has stated he will continue pushing for acceptance of his developemnt application - by which I presume he means he intends to begin trotting down to Sydney again to bend the ears of relevant state government ministers.

I'm sure objectors to the creation of a industrial working waterfront on the island will be watching closely.

The Daily Examiner, 14 May 2020:

Department firm on Palmers Island decision 

The possibility of boat building on Palmers Island was diminished further yesterday as the planning department plotted the possible course for industry expansion. 

 The Department of Planning Industry and Environment has responded to questions following its decision to reject a Yamba Welding and Engineering plan to rezone a section of Palmers Island for boat building. 

DPIE suggested it was unlikely an amended plan would be considered. “The Department recognises the high importance of marine-based industries to Clarence Valley’s local economy and has encouraged the proponent to work collaboratively with (the) council and the state agencies to identify an appropriate location to support the growth of both the proponent’s business and the local boat-building industry,” a spokesperson said. 

“If an appropriate location can be identified and is consistent with local and regional strategy, the proponent may lodge a new planning proposal with (the) council for their consideration and if (the) council support it they will need to seek a Gateway Determination from the Department for it to proceed.” 

The department also reiterated the reasons for rejecting the plan, highlighting it was inconsistent with state and local government plans and strategies. 

 “Following a rigorous assessment process, the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment will not rezone 11.7ha of rural land for a marine-based industry at Palmers Island,” the spokesperson said. 

“It was determined that the proposal does not fit with the approach to develop a cluster of local industry, as advocated by the Clarence Valley Council’s Industrial Lands Strategy (2007).“It also contradicts Direction 11 of the North Coast Regional Plan 2036, which aims to protect and enhance productive agricultural lands.”

Quote of the Week

"According to a poll carried out by the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, 70% of Australians admit to drinking more alcohol than they would have prior to the pandemic and 34% say they are drinking alcohol every day.” [Crikey, 15 May 2020]

Cartoons of the Week

Cathy Wilcox

Glen Le Lievre

David Rowe

David Pope

COVID-19 infections surface again in NSW Northern Rivesr region after almost five weeks virus free

Northern NSW Local Health District, media release, 14 May 2020:

An additional two cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in the last 24 hours in residents of the Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD). 

This brings the total cases to 57 as at 8pm Wednesday 13 May. The new cases include one resident who acquired the illness overseas and one resident whose case is still being investigated with regards to the source. 

51 cases in Northern NSW Local Health District are recovered. There are no cases being treated in hospital. 

NNSWLHD cases by likely source of infection: 

Source Total Overseas or interstate acquired 53 
Contact of a confirmed case or in a known cluster 2 
Contact not identified 1 
Under investigation 1 
Total 57 

More information and statistics for Local Government Areas can be found at https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/covid-19-lga.aspx 

Relaxed gathering restrictions to be handled with care 

As we move to easing some restrictions on public gatherings, dining and outdoor activities from tomorrow, I want to remind our community to take their personal responsibilities seriously. 

It’s good news that we’ll be able to move about more freely and catch up with our friends and family, but we still have an obligation to practice social distancing measures to prevent transmission of this virus. 

As we’ve seen in recent days, the numbers of new cases can vary from day to day, we have certainly not overcome this pandemic. 

Please do your best to keep your 1.5 metre distance from others, keep up frequent hand washing and avoid touching your face or public surfaces where possible. I also encourage everyone to download the COVIDsafe app, to help with contact tracing as we become more mobile. 

It’s also imperative that anyone who is showing flu-like symptoms, however mild, comes forward for testing and stays home while they are unwell. 

Our testing clinics are open seven days a week, and we encourage people to be tested again if they are experiencing flu-like symptoms, even if they have had a negative test previously.