______________________________________________________
Carbon
emissions of richest 1% set to be 30 times
the
1.5°C limit in 2030
Footprints
of poorest 50% set to remain well below this limit
The
carbon footprints of the richest 1% of people on Earth is set to be
30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of
the Paris Agreement in 2030, according to new research out today. It
comes as delegates grapple with how to keep this goal alive at the
COP26 meeting in Glasgow.
In
2015, governments agreed to the goal of limiting global heating to
1.5°C above preindustrial levels, but current pledges to reduce
emissions fall far short of what is needed. To stay within this
guardrail, every person on Earth would need to emit an average of
just 2.3 tonnes of CO2 per year by 2030 – this is roughly half the
average footprint of every person on Earth today.
Today’s
study, commissioned by Oxfam based on research carried out by the
Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and the Stockholm
Environment Institute (SEI), estimates how governments’
pledges will affect the carbon footprints of richer and poorer people
around the world. It treats the global population and income groups
as if they were a single country. It finds that by 2030:
- The
poorest half of the global population will still emit far below the
1.5°C-aligned level in 2030.
- The
richest 1% and 10% of people are set to exceed this level by 30 times
and 9 times respectively.
- Someone
in the richest 1% would need to reduce their emissions by around 97%
compared with today to reach this level.
But
in a sign that the 2015 Paris Agreement is having some impact, the
middle 40% are on course for per capita emissions cuts of 9% from
2015 to 2030. This is a turnaround for a group, which is mostly made
up of citizens in middle-income countries like China and South Africa
that saw the fastest per capita emissions growth rates from 1990 to
2015.
Looking
at total global emissions, instead of per capita emissions, the
richest 1%– fewer people than the population of Germany - are
expected to account for 16% of total global emissions by 2030, up
from 13% in 1990 and 15% in 2015. The total emissions of the richest
10% alone are set to exceed the 1.5°C-aligned level in 2030,
regardless of what the other 90% do.
Oxfam
Australia Chief Executive Lyn Morgain said: “The emissions from a
single billionaire space flight would exceed the lifetime emissions
of someone in the poorest billion people on Earth. A tiny elite
appear to have a free pass to pollute. Their over-sized emissions are
fuelling extreme weather around the world and jeopardising the
international goal of limiting global heating.
“The
emissions of the wealthiest 10 per cent alone could send us beyond
the agreed limit in the next nine years. This would have catastrophic
results for some of the most vulnerable people on Earth who are
already facing deadly storms, hunger and destitution.”
The
geography of global carbon inequality is set to change too, with a
larger share of the emissions of the world’s richest 1% and 10%
linked to citizens in middle income countries. By 2030, Chinese
citizens will be responsible for almost a quarter (23%) of the
emissions of the richest 1%, US citizens for a fifth (19%) and Indian
citizens for a tenth (11%).
Tim Gore, author of this briefing and
Head of the Low Carbon and Circular Economy programme at IEEP, said:
“The global emissions gap to keep the 1.5°C Paris goal alive is
not the result of the consumption of most of the world’s people: it
reflects instead the excessive emissions of just the richest citizens
on the planet. To close the emissions gap by 2030, it is necessary
for governments to target measures at their richest, highest emitters
– the climate and inequality crises should be tackled together.
That includes both measures to constrain luxury carbon consumption
like mega yachts, private jets and space travel, and to curb
climate-intensive investments like stock-holdings in fossil fuel
industries.”
Emily
Ghosh, Scientist at Stockholm Environment Institute says: “Our
research highlights the challenge of ensuring a more equitable
distribution of the remaining and rapidly diminishing global carbon
budget. If we continue on the same trajectory as today the stark
inequalities in income and emissions across the global population
will remain, challenging the equity principle at the very heart of
the Paris Agreement. Analysis of carbon inequality must urgently be
put at the centre of governments’ efforts to reduce emissions.”
Oxfam
said world leaders should focus on targeting deeper emissions cuts by
2030, in line with their fair share, and ensure that the richest
people worldwide and within countries make the most radical cuts. The
richest citizens have the potential to speed up this process
dramatically, both by leading greener lifestyles but also by
directing their political influence and investments towards a
low-carbon economy.
