An insurance crisis grips the flood-ravaged Central West of NSW as state enters 69th day of consecutive flooding

 

The Sydney Morning Herald, A frame grab from aerial drone vision over Eugowra (Postcode 2806) on Tuesday. 15 November 2022. IMAGE: Mat Reid

Mainstream media reports that the entire postcode of 2871 is to be denied future flood cover by insurance industry. Included in this postcode are:

Bandon, Bedgerebong, Bundaburrah, Calarie, Carrawabbity, Corinella, Cumbijowa, Daroobalgie, Fairholme, Forbes, Garema, Grawlin, Gunning Gap, Jemalong, Mulyandry, Ooma, Warroo, Weelong, Wirrinya and Yarragong. 

The Sydney Morning Herald, Morning Edition,17 November 2022:

Insurers drop flood-stricken residents

As floods continue to devastate the state’s central west, exhausted residents have begun receiving letters from their insurers telling them they are no longer covered. Touring the affected areas, acting Prime Minister Richard Marles said the government would continue to talk to its state counterpart about potential land buybacks. But the insurance crisis prompted calls for the federal government to intervene with a reinsurance pool like it did in Queensland, where premiums skyrocketed due to cyclones.

“There’s got to be a suite of measures on the table, from the financial to the physical, like flood mitigation,” said local federal MP Andrew Gee. In 2019, the state government committed to raising the wall of Wyangala Dam, which has been spilling hundreds of thousands of megalitres of water a day as communities downstream are inundated. However, laws allowing the government to fast-track that project expired last year before work commenced, and Opposition Leader Chris Minns will not commit to it if elected next year. He says the multibillion-dollar project is being used by the government to peddle “false hope” for flood-ravaged communities…..

Photo: Alex Ellinghausen, see more here.

• See the latest news in our live flood coverage

Rally To Stop Casino's Incinerator Madness, Saturday 26 November 2022 at Reynolds Road, Casino opp Cemetery

 

 

Quote of the Week

“We live at a moment of civilisational crisis. The threat of nuclear war on the continent of Europe. A growing global economic crisis. Intensified rather than diminished fossil fuel extraction. And the possible return of Donald Trump in 2024. Truly, we seem to have descended into chaos.” [Richard Horton writing in The Lancet, 12 November 2022]

Tweet of the Week

 

The three faces of Kathryn Campbell
a thread:

2018#Robodebt pic.twitter.com/c1D6Tn9kT5

— 🕯️ 💉💉Teresa Randal💉💉 🕯️💧 (@RandaltsRandal) November 13, 2022

 

Has Kyogle Council in Northern NSW become a creature of the timber industry?

In 2018 the NSW Dept. of Primary Industries produced a report that examined the NSW planning and regulatory instruments that interact with private native forestry (PNF) using the entire NSW north coast region as a case study -  from Gosford local government area to the NSW-Qld border - to which was added Tenterfield, Glen Innes Severn, Guyra, Armidale Dumaresq, Uralla, Walcha and Tamworth LGAs for good measure.

The report found planning constraints and exclusions applied to 734,992 ha, which equated to 25.6% of the total area of private native forest on the NSW north coast. In effect, these areas are acting as large-scale informal conservation reserves. With a total of 689,300 ha of that land requiring dual consent from the NSW Environment Protection Agency (EPA) and local councils before private forestry agreements could be applied to this land.

The report noted that: Private native forestry is prohibited by council LEPs on a further 6.5%3 (174,560 ha) of private native forest land. The balance of the private native forest estate (68.5%) has zoning that permits forestry without council consent.

It also found that: The Private Native Forestry Code of Practice for Northern NSW prohibits forest operations within any area identified as core koala habitat within the meaning of State Environment Planning Policy (SEPP) 44—Koala Habitat Protection (SEPP 44). Koalas are known to be present in low densities across all of the North coast’s 34 council areas. It identified SEPP 44 as an impediment with the potential to significantly reduce the availability of private timber resources.

The Berejiklian and Perrottet Coalition Governments, along with the NSW National Party and timber industry lobbyists, appear to have spent the years since 2018 attempting to dismantle protections on any and all land in private hands which has what is considered harvestable native timber stands. In this aim the state government has frequently been successful.

In 2022 they had an unexpected measure of success in the Kyogle local government area, which covers 3,589 square km and has a resident population of est. 9,359 people [ABS Census 2021].

Kyogle Koalas IMAGE: “KOALA COUNTRY” leaflet, September 2017

ABC News, 15 November 2022:

On the day the NSW government was forced into an embarrassing backdown over proposed changes to private native forestry approvals, a council on the state's north coast has voted to give up the powers at the centre of the controversy.

Kyogle Council voted to scrap the dual approval process for native forestry on private land, leaving approvals entirely in the hands of Local Land Services (LLS).

"We've got a history in Kyogle of a strong timber industry, and the fact that it is still functioning today is a testament to generations past and present and how well they're managing their land," Mayor Kylie Thomas said.

"Why would we get in the way of that?"…...

The meeting heard there were 133 private native forestry (PNF) plans in place across the Kyogle Shire which have been approved by the LLS but have not been put forward to the council.

A staff report said the council would struggle to approve any PNF plans, because it could not approve proposals that would have an adverse effect on the environment.

It argued that scrapping the dual-approval process would help address the regulatory stalemate.

The council's vote came on the same day the state government announced it would not proceed with contentious private native forestry legislation.

Under the current law, landholders need approval from both their local council and a state authority (LLS).

The bill would have removed the requirement to go to council, but it was abandoned after concerns were raised about its impact on koala habitat.

The Nationals member for Tweed, Geoff Provest, threatened to cross the floor on the issue.

"In my whole political life, I've never crossed the floor, so to speak, or voted against a government policy," he said.

"In this case I have a strong belief and I think I've got the support of my wider community that this is not good legislation."…….

Read the full article here. 

BACKGROUND

To those who worked behind the scenes, those who emailed, tweeted, agitated - I thank you for this and for 🐨
I note the battle to stop the Bill is won but the Minister continues to champion the policy so it is a reprieve not yet a win. But we getting there! https://t.co/3QHwYQDzJa

— Catherine Cusack (@katieqs) November 14, 2022

In its 14 November 2022 ordinary monthly meeting business paper Kyogle Council asserted that the local government area has the third highest amount of private native forest on the North Coast of NSW with approximately 160,000 hectares. It further stated that: As of 2022, Council records indicate that there are 146 current approved PNF plans in the Kyogle local government area covering 382 parcels of land. Local Land Services advises that over half of all forest under freehold title is subject to an approved PNF. A further 84 PNF plans covering 279 parcels of land have historically been approved, however, it is likely these approvals have expired.

Council officers have discussed the above issue with the Department of Planning and Environment (DPE) with a view to finding a solution which ensures that duplication in regulatory processes is removed while ensuring that state and local government interests are protected.

DPE and Council officers agree that the best way forward is to amend the Kyogle LEP to make PNF permitted without consent on land zoned RU1 – Primary Production. This would enable any land owner who obtains an approved PNF Plan from LLS after the proposed amendment to the LEP takes effect, to proceed with PNF without obtaining development consent from Council. The cost to Council of implementing the withdrawal from the dual consent process is optimistically set by staff at $25,000.

IndyNR.com, 1 September 2022:

Logging at a property near the Border Ranges National Park was first noticed by a Kyogle Environment Group member on their way to the park.

Kyogle Council general manager Graham Kennett said the council received a complaint about the logging of native forest at a site along Forest Rd on July 25.

“Council officers inspected the site that day and immediately reported the matter to the Environmental Protection Authority and Local Land Services, who are the two state government agencies responsible for the regulation and approval of private native forests,” Mr Kennett said.

“Council also issued an emergency stop works order the following day.”

The property on Forest Rd is a short drive from the national park and 30km north of Kyogle.

The Kyogle Environment Group contacted Minister for Environment and Heritage James Griffin, Minister for Agriculture Dugald Saunders, State MP Janelle Saffin and MLC Sue Higginson as well as the EPA.

KEG secretary Sue Page received a letter about the logging from the EPA’s Carmen Dwyer.

The letter said the EPA had conducted two inspections at the property and identified alleged non-compliance issues.

“These matters are now subject to a formal investigation,” Ms Dwyer said.

Logging laws require landholders and contractors to comply with the Private Native Forestry Code of Practice.

“The EPA is currently investigating compliance issues at the property. Forestry operations have been suspended at the site following separate regulatory action instituted by Kyogle Council,” an EPA spokesperson said.

Neither council nor the EPA could give further details until the investigation is complete……. 

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY: I keep waiting for Northern NSW to get some really good news - this isn't it

A reputable study was published in September this year which raises some concerns for communities in Northern NSW. 

"Using large climate model ensembles to assess historical and future tropical cyclone activity along the Australian east coast" [Bruy`ere, C.L. et al, Sept 2022] is a collaborative effort supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), Insurance Australia Group Limited (Aust), Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University (Aust) and Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University (South Africa).

The message bottom line is that Australian East Coast Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are now anticipated to extend their range into south-east Queensland and on into Northern NSW as far south as the Clarence Valley and possibly Coffs Harbour City local government area.

At the same time the frequency of strong tropical storms and cyclones are expected to increase, their heavy rainfall areas to widen, intensify and in some instances their wind fields to remain over locations for longer periods. 

The following is an excerpt from the Introduction to the aforementioned study. 

"Building codes can be highly effective at reducing TC losses (Done et al., 2018). They are commonly designed to safeguard people from injury caused by structural failures (e.g., the Australian Wind Loading Standards - ASNZS1170.2).......

A collection of recent work demonstrates that Australian TC statistics are non-stationary. Holland and Bruyère (2014) detected an increasing proportion of the strongest storms. Kossin et al. (2020) found that the absolute numbers of intense storms have increased. Not only are the peak wind speeds increasing, but the latitudes of storm-lifetime peak winds have likely shifted poleward in this region (Kossin et al., 2014). Cyclone forward motion has also slowed down over Australia (Kossin, 2018), meaning that locations experience strong winds for longer, all other things being equal.

TC rainfall is also changing. Studies show heavier TC rain rates in some regions (e.g., Risser and Wehner 2017; Emanuel 2017). Bruyère et al. (2019) showed that when changes in thermodynamical conditions alone are considered (i.e., thermodynamic climate change scenarios), TCs penetrated much further inland with a marked expansion of the heavy rainfall area. Should these wind and rainfall trends continue (as indicated by Knutson et al., 2020; Walsh et al., 2016a; Lavender and Walsh 2011), this raises the prospect that current wind loading codes and flood planning zones may not protect people and property as well as they have in the past and may severely underperform in the future.

The region of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales (NSW) (referred to as the QLD-NSW sub-region hereafter) may be particularly vulnerable to these anticipated changes. QLD-NSW is located at the current southern limit of TC occurrence and, does not adhere to the stronger building codes implemented further north along the coast (Fig. 1). Consequently, Saffir Simpson scale intensities of high category 1 to low category 2 will exceed the wind loading standards for buildings in this region - designated wind loading region B. Any future southward shift or expansion of the current region of the most intense TCs would threaten structures built to current codes and land planning zones. Moreover, new structures with design lives of 50–100 years will need to account for these expected climate change effects and associated uncertainties." [my yellow highlighting]

NOTE: Click on image to enlarge

Fig. 1. Map indicating the South-West Pacific (SWP) search domain and the Gulf of Carpentaria (northern box) and QLD-NSW sub-region of interest (box around Brisbane). The colored areas indicate where the Australian wind loading standards apply. The wind-load standards for the regions are A: 45 m/s, B: 57 m/s, C: 70 m/s, and D: 87 m/s. The blue circles indicate select Geoscience Australia TC gates (refer to section 3). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

At this point in time it appears that the building code for housing (AS4055-2012) that is applied for most Northern NSW coastal zone housing has a requirement to be built to withstand a 0.2 second wind gust duration at 57m/s for the 500 year return period. This does not appear to be changing when the most recent version of the National Construction Code (NCC 2022) comes into force.

Perrottet and Toole faced with an approaching tidal wave of condemnation, retreated from their latest attempt to drive NSW koalas into species extinction

 

This was going to be the scheduled North Coast Voices post title today: "Dodgy duo Dom Perrottet and Paul Toole are hoping that NSW residents, ratepayers and voters will forget this act of political bastardry once the state parliament goes into recess until February 2023. How wrong they will be in many a coastal council area".

But then, with an eye to his political legacy, retiring NSW Christian Democrat MLC Fred Nile spoke out.....

The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 December 2022: 

The NSW government has been forced into a humiliating backdown in the latest koala wars after Christian Democrat MP Fred Nile refused to back its native forestry bill, guaranteeing it would have failed on the floor of parliament. Agriculture Minister Dugald Saunders confirmed late on Monday that the Nationals would pull the hugely divisive bill in a bid to avoid an embarrassing loss for the Coalition in the final sitting week of parliament before the March election. The death knell for the bill came when Nile ruled out support for changes to native forestry laws, which would have made it easier for landholders to remove trees.....

Without Nile’s support, the bill could not have passed the upper house and it was also likely to fail in the lower house because Nationals MP Geoff Provest told Nationals leader Paul Toole on Monday that he would not support the bill. Liberal MP Felicity Wilson also ruled out supporting the bill. Millionaire businessman and environmental crusader Geoff Cousins, who waged the high-profile campaign to stop the Gunns pulp mill in Tasmania during the 2007 federal election campaign, also delivered a blistering warning to the NSW government, saying he would “do everything I can to run a major campaign against the Perrottet government in the next election” in response to the bill. “I would liken the sort of campaign I would run to the Gunns pulp mill campaign,” Cousins, a former adviser to John Howard, said. “If they want to go up against that, that’s fine. But it would include a major advertising campaign and I would do everything I could to bring down a government that would put forward legislation like this.” .....

In addition to dissenting members of the NSW Parliament, it was obvious that individuals and communities all along the est. 1,973km long NSW mainland coastal zone and, as far inland as the Great Dividing Range, were prepared to resist the Perrottet Coalition Government's attempt to lock in destructive legislation ahead of the March 2023 state election. In what looked suspiciously like an erstatz insurance policy for their timber industry mates - just in case the Coalition lost the forthcoming state ballot.

Somewhat predictably, in this approach the Perrottet Government was aping the failed former Morrison Government and, thereby doing itself no favours.

BACKGROUND

Newly minted NSW National Party Leader & Deputy Premier Paul Toole 
and newly minted NSW Liberal Party Leader & Premier Dominic Perrottet. IMAGE: ABC News, 14 October 2021

 

Following in the footsteps of a disgraced Liberal premier and a disgraced Nationals deputy premier (both of whom resigned
office and left the NSW Parliament) it seems no lessons were learnt......

The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 November 2022, p.1:

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet faces a damaging internal battle in the final week of parliament as Liberals threaten to cross the floor over the revival of the so-called koala wars which almost tore apart the Coalition two years ago.

As NSW parliament sits for the last time before the March election, the bitter issue of protecting koala habitat could split the Coalition, with Liberals who face challenges from teal candidates fearing it would ignite a backlash against the government.

The Nationals have introduced a bill to make it easier for landholders to clear private native forestry without duplicate approval processes between state and local governments. However, critics have warned it could water down environmental regulation and destroy koala habitat.

Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court described revisiting the koala wars as a "gift" for the teal movement in NSW, which would seize on the NSW government's position in northern Sydney seats.

Holmes a Court said Perrottet had made three significant environmental missteps in recent weeks, which included committing to raising the Warragamba Dam wall and appointing former Sydney Hydro boss Paul Broad as a special adviser.

Broad, who was appointed by Perrottet while Energy Minister Matt Kean was overseas, has been a critic of NSW's energy road map, which provides long-term contracts for renewable generation and grid services. Broad has called the plan, devised by Kean, "fundamentally flawed". He also backed the former federal government in its push for a large new gas-fired power plant in the Hunter Valley.

"Until recently, it's been hard for the teals to find strong differentiation in states with almost-good-enough environmental credentials like Victoria and NSW," Holmes a Court said.

"Dominic Perrottet has handed the movement a gift through deciding to flood a UNESCO site with many significant Aboriginal sites, reopening the koala wars and putting Angus Taylor's gas man in the Premier's office."

Asked yesterday about Broad's appointment, Perrottet said he was "highly regarded, and his experience in water, engineering and infrastructure is second to none in this country".

Perrottet said Broad's remit included raising the Warragamba wall and ensuring the $3.5 billion Narrabri gas project was online as soon as possible.

The Coalition battled internal warfare over koala planning laws in 2020, when former deputy premier John Barilaro threatened to take his Nationals MPs to the crossbench if proposed new rules to protect an increased number of tree species home to koalas were adopted.

Then premier Gladys Berejiklian stared him down and Barilaro withdrew the threat.

The bill to change planning laws for private native forests will be debated his week and is likely to be particularly problematic for Liberal MP James Griffin, who is environment minister and holds the seat of Manly, which has a very active independents' group.

Several senior government sources said other at-risk Liberals, including North Shore MP Felicity Wilson and Port Macquarie MP Leslie Williams, are considering crossing the floor or abstaining. Nationals MP for Tweed Geoff Provest could abstain.

Wilson, Williams and Provest were contacted for comment.

In an indication of how damaging Wilson thinks the bill could be, she gave a private members' statement to parliament last week when she wanted her "support for a plan to transition the native forestry industry towards sustainable plantations" placed on the record……

Opposition environment spokeswoman Penny Sharpe said Labor would oppose the bill…...

Local Government NSW president Darriea Turley said the bill had been rushed into parliament without any consultation with local government.

"This bill undermines the crucial role councils play in the regulation of private forestry operations," Turley said. "It will have devastating impacts on native habitats, particularly for koalas and many threatened species."