Cartoons of the Week

 

John Shakespeare

Alan Moir

David Rowe

Cathy Wilcox

Tweet of the Week

 

All we wanted for Christmas was a new Reserve Bank Governor. Be careful what you wish for! pic.twitter.com/l9rKtElfiy

— john shakespeare (@johnshakespeare) November 8, 2023

 

Landmark High Court ruling delivered on 8 November 2023 in NZYQ v Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs & Anor [2023]

NZYQ is an undocumented stateless person whose age cannot be established, who entered Australian territorial waters by boat in 2012 seeking asylum.

The Minister for Immigration at that time was Labor MP Chris Bowen. During the subsequent years to date the following members of the government of the day have held that office: Labor MPs Brendan O'Connor & Tony Burke; Liberal MPs Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, David Coleman, Alan Tudge (acting) & Alex Hawke; with the current incumbent being Labor MP Andrew Giles.

Since June 2017 NZTQ has been seeking resolution of his matter in the Australian lower courts and finally in the High Court of Australia in NZYQ v Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs & Anor [2023] HCATrans 153 before the full Court.

Human Rights Law Centre, media release, 8 November 2023:

Indefinite immigration detention unlawful: High Court rules

The High Court has today ruled that it is unlawful and unconstitutional for the Australian Government to detain people indefinitely in immigration detention.

Nearly 20 years ago, the High Court upheld the constitutional validity of indefinite immigration detention in the case of Al-Kateb v Godwin. Today, a majority of judges of the Court overruled that decision. 

In this landmark legal challenge, brought by a person referred to by the pseudonym NZYQ, it was argued that Al-Kateb was wrongly decided, and that it is unlawful and unconstitutional for the Australian Government to continue to detain a person where there is no real prospect that they could be removed from Australia. 

Subsequent to the 2004 decision, attempts to overturn it failed. As a result, the Australian Government has routinely detained people for prolonged periods of time – some for over a decade. 

Today, the average period of time for which the Australian Government holds people in immigration detention is 708 days. There are 124 people in detention today whom the Government has detained for over five years. Many of those people are stateless or owed protection by Australia, meaning that they cannot be returned to their countries of origin as a matter of international law. 

The Human Rights Law Centre and UNSW’s Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law appeared as amici curiae – friends of the court – to successfully argue that detention is unlawful for any person the Government is unlikely to remove in the foreseeable future.  

Quotes attributable to Sanmati Verma, Acting Legal Director at the Human Rights Law Centre:

“Indefinite detention ends today. The High Court has overturned a two-decades-old authority that allowed the Government to lock people up in immigration detention potentially for the rest of their lives. Today, the High Court held that the Government can no longer detain people if there is no real prospect that it will become practicable to remove them from Australia in the reasonably foreseeable future. Detention in these circumstances is unconstitutional.

“This has life-changing consequences for people who have been detained for years without knowing when, or even if, they will ever be released.

“The government must respect the constitutional limits of detention and act immediately to free people who have been indefinitely detained.”

Quotes attributable to Professor Jane McAdam AO, Director of UNSW’s Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law:

“Indefinite detention has always been arbitrary and unlawful under international law. We welcome the High Court’s decision today, which will mean that Australia can no longer detain people for years on end. For decades, Australia’s approach to detention has been completely out of step with that of other democratic countries. As a result of this significant decision, this will now have to change.

“This is an important and long-awaited victory for human rights.”

Excerpt from NZYQ v Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs & Anor [2023] HCATrans 154 (8 November 2023), 8 November 2023:

AT 4.17 PM SHORT ADJOURNMENT

UPON RESUMING AT 4.33 PM:

GAGELER CJ: The order I am about to pronounce is the order of the Court with which at least a majority agrees. The Court will publish its reasons for the order in due course. The order is:

The questions stated for the opinion of the Full Court in the further amended special case filed on 31 October 2023 be answered as follows:

Question 1: On their proper construction, did sections 189(1) and 196(1) of the Migration Act 1958 (Cth) authorise the detention of the plaintiff as at 30 May 2023?

Answer: Yes, subject to section 3A of the Migration Act 1958 (Cth).

Question 2: If so, are those provisions beyond the legislative power of the Commonwealth insofar as they applied to the plaintiff as at 30 May 2023?

Answer: Yes.

Question 3: On their proper construction, do sections 189(1) and 196(1) of the Migration Act 1958 (Cth) authorise the current detention of the plaintiff?

Answer: Yes, subject to section 3A of the Migration Act 1958 (Cth).

Question 4: If so, are those provisions beyond the legislative power of the Commonwealth insofar as they currently apply to the plaintiff?

Answer: Yes.

Question 5: What, if any, relief should be granted to the plaintiff?

Answer: The following orders should be made:

It is declared that, by reason of there having been and continuing to be no real prospect of the removal of the plaintiff from Australia becoming practicable in the reasonably foreseeable future:

(a) the plaintiff’s detention was unlawful as at 30 May 2023; and

(b) the plaintiff’s continued detention is unlawful and has been since 30 May 2023.

A writ of habeas corpus issue requiring the defendants to release the plaintiff forthwith. [my yellow highlighting]

Question 6: Who should pay the costs of the further amended special case?

Answer: The defendants.

The Court will now adjourn until 9.30 am tomorrow for the pronouncement of orders and otherwise until 10.00 am.

AT 4.36 PM THE MATTER WAS ADJOURNED

The Dept. of Home Affairs has reportedly stated that there are 92 detainees who were in a similar position to the Rohingya man, NZYQ.

AUSTRALIAN SOCIETY STATE OF PLAY: Interest rates and cost of living - there is no good news in November 2023

Reserve Bank Logo

The Reserve Bank of Australia as one of its monetary policy decision tools employs a cash rate target.

In the Reserve Bank's own words:

The cash rate is the interest rate that banks pay to borrow funds from other banks in the money market overnight. It influences all other interest rates, including mortgage and deposit rates.

In technical terms, it is the interest rate on unsecured overnight loans between banks (loans banks use to manage their liquidity). It is our operational target for the implementation of monetary policy.

The Bank's inflation target is; to keep annual consumer price inflation at between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time.

On 7 September 2016 the Australian Reserve Bank cash rate target stood at 1.50% and it remained unchanged for over two year and seven months, until it fell by 25 basis points to 1.25% on 5 June 2019.

The cash rate target continued to fall the next five months until it reached 0.10% on 4 November 2020 and remained unchanged until 4 May 2022 when it rose to 0.35%.

Since then the monthly cash rate target announcements began to tread water on 5 July 2023 at 4.10%.

Sadly, on 8 November 2023 the cash rate target again rose by 25 basis points to 4.35% - the 13th rate hike since May 2022.

The Reserve Bank's next monthly target announcement is due on Tuesday, 5 December 2023.

As for the Reserve Bank's inflation target of keeping consumer price inflation at between 2 and 3 per cent, this target range had been met consistently for the ten and a half years up to December Quarter 2021 and ever since been consistently exceeded. Peaking at 7.8% in December Quarter 2022 before gradually falling to 5.4% in September Quarter 2023 with a monthly indicator of 5.6%.

I suggest that readers do not anticipate any interest rate relief this coming December. Nor expect any significant fall in the Living Cost Index or Consumer Price Index as the country enters 2024.

If The Guardian article on the latest Essential Research poll is correct, it is likely that the more than half of all Australian voters who reportedly are struggling financially will read the following with a jaundiced eye.......

Reserve Bank of Australia, MediaRelease, 7 November 2023:

Statement by Michele Bullock, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision Number 2023-30

Date 7 November 2023

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent.

Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago. The latest reading on CPI inflation indicates that while goods price inflation has eased further, the prices of many services are continuing to rise briskly. While the central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline, progress looks to be slower than earlier expected. CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3½ per cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of 2025. The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The Board had held interest rates steady since June following an increase of 4 percentage points since May last year. It had judged that higher interest rates were working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. Furthermore, it had noted that the impact of the more recent rate rises would continue to flow through the economy. It had therefore decided that it was appropriate to hold rates steady to provide time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates so far. In particular, the Board had indicated that it would be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.

Since its August meeting, the Board has received updated information on inflation, the labour market, economic activity and the revised set of forecasts. The weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased. While the economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it has been stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market have eased but they remain tight. Housing prices are continuing to rise across the country.

At the same time, high inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Given that the economy is forecast to grow below trend, employment is expected to grow slower than the labour force and the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to around 4¼ per cent. This is a more moderate increase than previously forecast. Wages growth has picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. Services price inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could occur in Australia. There are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income. And globally, there remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Scientists call ‘Code Blue emergency’ for Australian oceans, as off-the-scale marine heat looms

 

OCEAN
IMAGE: AdobeStock_207088658

Climate Council, media release, 9 November 2023:

Scientists call ‘Code Blue emergency’ for Aussie oceans, as off-the-scale marine heat looms

AUSTRALIA’S OCEANS ARE in crisis, as extreme heat punishes marine life and raises the spectre of irreversible changes with profound consequences for all life on our planet, a new report has found.

The Climate Council’s CodeBlue: Oceans in Crisis report reveals the immense amount of climate-change induced heat currently being absorbed by the world’s oceans is equivalent to boiling the Sydney Harbour every eight minutes.

In addition, the Climate Council ran a highly targeted survey of 30 leading ocean scientists across five continents. All (100%) were ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ concerned about climate-driven changes to the world’s oceans. Half (53%) said these changes were outpacing scientific predictions.

Overwhelmingly, these scientists agreed ‘rapidly phasing out fossil fuels’ is the single most important action governments could take to address ocean warming.

Report author and the Climate Council’s Research Director Dr Simon Bradshaw said: "The science can’t be any clearer: our oceans are in deep trouble. Today the ocean is absorbing excess heat energy that’s equivalent to five Hiroshima bomb explosions every second, or enough to boil Sydney Harbour every eight minutes. [my yellow highlighting]

"As our climate changes, driven by rampant burning of coal, oil and gas, our seas are transforming before our eyes. More frequent and severe marine heatwaves are pushing coral reefs to the brink, ice sheets are melting at an alarming rate, ocean currents are slowing and seas are rising. The climate crisis is also an ocean crisis.

"In hospital emergency rooms, a code blue is called when a very serious life-threatening event is underway. We are calling a code blue for our oceans today, because this threatens all the species that inhabit them, the people who depend on them, as well as all life on land.

"Over the past few decades as the climate has warmed, the oceans have done an incredible job of protecting us by absorbing CO2 and an immense amount of heat, but there’s a limit to what they can take and we are close to crossing dangerous tipping points. We must scale up the use of clean energy like solar and wind, backed by storage, as quickly as we can so the use of coal, oil and gas is phased out. Every step that cuts pollution will help secure our future."

Ocean scientist Professor Gretta Pecl, Director for the Centre for Marine Socioecology at the University of Tasmania, author of the Australian ocean section of the latest IPCC report and report co-author added: “Make no mistake, ocean scientists around the world are growing increasingly concerned about rapid and intensifying changes to our oceans.

"While much of the worry for the brutal summer ahead is quite rightly about the impact on our iconic Great Barrier Reef, the scientific community is also extremely concerned about the Great Southern Reef. With forecasts of unprecedented and 'off the charts' marine heat this summer, these critical marine ecosystems face risk of utter devastation.

"We’re observing the transformation of the oceans in real time, as marine species move to survive. In Australia, at least 200 marine species have shifted since 2003, with the vast majority headed south. As waters warm further south, many will have nowhere left to go.

"While climate change has already caused extensive change to our oceans - and we’ll continue to see devastating impacts for decades - stronger action by governments to reign in fossil fuels right now can limit future harms and ensure more species and ecosystems are given a fighting chance. Scientists agree: the single most important action we can take now is to leave fossil fuels in the polluting past - and it has to happen this decade."

Pro-surfer Adrian ‘Ace’ Buchan, Surfing Australia Deputy Chairman, has joined the Climate Council’s call to declare a Code Blue emergency, adding: “Surfers have a deep and spiritual connection to the ocean and we are deeply concerned about the devastating impact the climate crisis is having on our big blue playground. Erosion is threatening our most iconic surfing spots. Our water is being polluted from flood runoff and dangerous jellyfish moving south. Loss of coral reefs and impacts on sandbars, is not just altering where and how waves break, but is also having devastating impacts on marine life.

"This is all terrible news for the millions of ocean loving Aussies - every one of whom should be concerned and take note. This is a call to action: we must work to draw attention to the ocean’s plight and push for decisive and rapid climate action now."

Tishiko King, a proud Kulkalaig woman from Masig in Zenadth Kes (Torres Strait Islands) marine scientist and co-author of the report said: “We know what is needed to protect our futures: leaving fossil fuels in the ground, having the resources to adapt to our changing climate and ocean, being able to access funds to address loss and damage.

"We have the opportunity to work together: First Nations, Pacific Island nations, non-Indigenous Australians. It starts by listening, and understanding what we all have in common. The ocean is what connects us all together."

ENDS

The Climate Council is Australia’s leading community-funded climate change communications organisation. It was founded through community donations in 2013, immediately after the then-Abbott Government dismantled the Climate Commission. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community. For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au Or follow us on social media: facebook.com/climatecouncil and twitter.com/climatecouncil

Full report can be found at:

https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/code-blue-our-oceans-in-crisis/

Global ocean heat is intensifying and seas below the 30th Parallel South appear to have seen the largest increase in absorbed & accumulated heat

 

‘The world ocean, in 2023, is now the hottest ever recorded, and sea levels are rising because heat causes water to expand and ice to melt,’...‘Ecosystems are also experiencing unprecedented heat stress, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are changing rapidly, and the costs are enormous.’ [Scientia Professor Matthew England, co-author of the study from the UNSW Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, in the Echo, 6 November 2023]

Over the years science has made the general public increasingly aware that anthropomorphic global warming and subsequent climate change has been heating the world's oceans beyond their normal temperature range.

What we aren't always aware of is exactly which oceans are exhibiting the most persistent warming and the fastest temperature rises.

This recent study below highlights those particular oceans.

It seems that ocean waters from the 30th Parallel south (latitude: -30° 00' 0.00" S longitude: 0° 00' 0.00") are experiencing the most rapid increase in temperatures.

To place that in perspective. From a line running through Australian waters from a point roughly halfway between Red Rock on the Clarence Coast and Corindi Beach on the Coffs Coast (NSW), right down to Tasmania and on towards Antarctica, seawater is heating and expanding until at latest measurement the reading over time now stands at 75.3 ± 4.

While from around Cape Leeuwin to Antarctica the reading is 43.2 ± 4.4.

On the Australian west coast the 30th Parallel can be thought of as running on a latitude approximately halfway between Leeman and Green Head (WA).

This study appears to indicate that, sooner rather than later, the considerable impacts of climate change will increase for the Australian population.

Nature Communications, Article number: 6888 (2023), 28 October 2023, excerpts:

Recentacceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode andintermediate waters

Authors: Zhi Li, Matthew H. England & Sjoerd Groeskamp

The ocean directly impacts the Earth’s climate by absorbing and redistributing large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and by exchanging these properties with the atmosphere1. About 91% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases and 31% of human emissions of carbon dioxide2 are stored in the ocean, shielding humans from even more rapid changes in climate. However, warmer oceans result in sea-level rise, ice-shelf melt, intensified storms, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, as well as more severe marine species and ecosystem damage. These effects depend on the pattern of ocean warming; it is thus critical to quantify the dynamics and distribution of ocean warming to better understand its consequences and predict its implications.

The observed distribution of ocean warming is not uniform. About 90% of total ocean warming is found in the upper 2000 m, with over two-thirds concentrated in the upper 700 since the 1950s, and an increase of warming rates at both intermediate depths of 700–2000 m, and in the deeper ocean below 2000 m. The Southern Ocean south of 30°S has been estimated to account for 35–43% of global ocean warming from 1970 to 2017, and an even greater proportion in recent years, while Northern Hemisphere ocean warming appears to be concentrated in the Atlantic Ocean. Due to the accumulated excess heat in ocean basins, an acceleration of total ocean warming has become more evident from recent observational-based studies. While much past work has focused on the distribution of ocean warming as a function of depth and basin, relatively little analysis has been undertaken of the distribution as a function of water-mass layers and within specific water masses. This is the focus of the present study......

When evaluating the ocean heat uptake for each decade (“Methods”), analysis of the past three decades reveals that the ocean heat uptake during 2010–2020 has increased more than 25% relative to 2000–2010 and has nearly doubled relative to the 1990’s WOCE era, as seen in Fig. 1b, where we highlight the decadal ocean heat uptake since the 1960s. Note that there has been both increased ocean sampling and a shift of the observational network from a ship-based system to the Argo network since the initiation of the global Argo array (2001–2003)34. This may impact the estimated increase in global ocean warming over the past three decades (Fig. 1). However, the rate of global mean sea-level rise has also been increasing since 1993 based on an independent estimate from satellite altimeter data1,35, providing confidence in our results given that half of the global sea surface height increase is due to thermal expansion of the ocean since altimeter measurements began. Significant ocean warming and accelerating OHC changes are also consistent with the increase in net radiative energy absorbed by Earth detected in satellite observations, something that is likely to continue throughout the 21st century in the absence of substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

The increased ocean warming is non-uniformly distributed across ocean basins. Overall, in each ocean basin, an increase in OHC is observed (values indicated in Fig. 2a, b), with stronger warming in the mid-latitude Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean compared with other basins. Total warming in the Southern Ocean is estimated to account for ~31% of the global upper 2000-m OHC increase from 1980–2000 to 2000–2010 (Fig. 2a), and almost half of the global OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020 (values indicated in parentheses of Fig. 2b). Hence the Southern Ocean has seen the largest increase in heat storage over the past two decades, holding almost the same excess anthropogenic heat as the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans north of 30°S combined (Fig. 2d). The most striking warming in the Southern Ocean is concentrated on the northern flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the location of deep mixed layers and subduction hotspots for Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water, as well as the location of subtropical mode waters formation further equatorward (Fig. 3). The well-ventilated regions near western boundary current extensions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific also reveal large warming over the past two decades. These hotspots of ocean warming are likely linked to enhanced uptake, subduction, and lateral spreading of heat associated with mode and intermediate waters that warrant further investigation.

Fig. 2: Regional intensification in ocean warming over the past two decades, 0–2000 m. Click on image to enlarge

The ensemble mean of ocean heat content (OHC) changes averaged for years a 2000–2010 and b 2010–2020, relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Units of shadings in panels (a, b) are shown as 109 J m−2. The values over each basin indicate the OHC increase relative to the 1980–2000 mean over the Southern (S.O., south of 30°S, dark-red line), Atlantic (ATL), Pacific (PAC), and Indian (IND) Oceans, and are limited to 65°S–65°N. Units are shown as 1021. The values in parentheses in panel (b) indicate the basin-integrated OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020. The basin mask used to distinguish ocean basins of the Southern, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans is obtained from ref.  Superimposed gray contours represent the positions of wintertime isopycnals 25, 26.45, 27.05, and 27.5 kg m−3 at 10 m depth from SIO RG-Argo. c, d Zonally integrated OHC change (1021 per degree latitude) versus latitude for the period 2000–2010 (blue line), and 2010–2020 (red line), relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Lines in panels (c) and (d) represent the ensemble mean, and shadings indicate the ±2 ensemble standard deviation uncertainty range (±2σ) of OHC changes.

[my yellow highlighting in the excerpts]

The full study can be read and downloaded at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z#ref-CR13