Brendan may have lost his shine when he ditched that earring, but did Malcolm ever sparkle in the first place?

The Liberal Party ship hasn't stopped yawing since the federal election last year and often appears perilously close to floundering on one political reef or another.

Brendan Nelson's poor opinion poll showing and unfortunate way with words once more has God's own party canvassing a change of leadership. Eyes are again turning to Malcolm Turnbull.

It's almost as if the ship's crew are intent on sending the boat to the bottom.

As Environment Minister during the last years of the Howard Government he is less than fondly remembered by Tassie and northern NSW for his high-handed attempts to wreck our lands, rivers and coastal oceans.

This is the same man whose history caused The Canberra Times Crispin Hull to write in March this year about the former banker's alleged role in the estimated $900 million HIH collapse and the subsequent court case now underway.

 

"Turnbull still has difficulties. He will be fighting a major case with a lot of publicity. His conduct will be under intense scrutiny. Political enemies and commentators will do their utmost to draw the worst possible inferences from whatever happens during the case. And the timing is appalling. The full case will get to court next year. Given the number of parties, the vast numbers of documents and complexity of legal argument over things such as privilege and meanings in the Corporations Law, the case is likely go on for some time."

Turnbull has quite reasonably refused to "rule out" a leadership challenge under the Howard principle. Former prime minister John Howard when in opposition and government as both deputy and leader said the leadership was always open. Loyal deputies should not have to "rule out" challenges.

This puts the parliamentary Liberal Party in a bind, especially in the face of appalling opinion poll figures for Brendan Nelson.

If the figures do not move, MPs will get restless. They will not want a further swing to Labor at the 2010 (or possibly 2011) election. Ditching Nelson is one thing; finding a suitable replacement is another. Without the HIH case, Turnbull would be the obvious choice. With HIH, they will be taking a risk. Even if Turnbull wins the case, it will be a long distraction at the minimum.

The worse case would be an order for him to pay millions of dollars in damages and a finding of deceptive conduct as alleged by the liquidator a finding no political leader could weather.

Those MPs might also question Turnbull's assessment of "baseless" when pitted against NSW requirements that legal advisers certify a case has "reasonable prospects of success" before proceeding on pain of costs orders against the legal advisers themselves, not just the client."