Wednesday, 7 April 2021

Bad news continues for Morrison Government with publication of latest Newspoll analysis in April 2021


The last Newspoll of 2020 published on 29 November had Federal Labor trailing the Coalition by 2 points at 49 to 51 on a two-party preferred basis, after starting that year ahead by the same two points.

Come January and February 2021 the polling showed the Federal Coalition and Labor neck and neck on a two-party preferred basis.

On 28 March Labor moved ahead on a two-party preferred basis at 52 to the Coalition’s 48. At that point Scott Morrison’s approval rating as prime minister has fallen 9 points in a month.

Now despite the first published Newspoll analysis of voter intentions in April 2021 revealing that primary voting intentions have Labor at 38 per cent and the Coalition at 40 per cent, according to the Northern Daily Leader the Coalition is losing even more ground on a two-party preferred basis, with a result of 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour if a federal election had been held on 5 April.

The Coalition's two-party preferred polling in relation to Labor’s polling now stands at exactly the same level as it was on 2 February 2020 after that 4 point downwards slide it took once Morrison was discovered secretly holidaying in Hawaii while Australia's east coast burned.

According to AAP General Newswire on 6 April 2021, the polling figures for Western Australia and Queensland has the Coalition trailing by 12 points in WA and dropping 3 points in Qld. Indicating that at the next federal election the Morrison Government could lose 3 seats in Western Australian and 4 seats in Queensland.

In two other states the Coalition is trailing in the two-party preferred polling - by 10 points in South Australia and 6 points in Victoria. The vote is split 50-50 in New South Wales.

On 5 April Morrison’s approval rating as prime minister had actually risen by 6 points compared with the March result. However, the Newspoll analysis shows that he has lost support amongst male voters which now stands at only 41 per cent of all males surveyed – leaving male support on par with female support.

At the end of March 2021 at least one mainstream media masthead was predicting that Labor would need to gain a net 8 seats on a uniform swing of 3.2 per cent to win government at the next federal election. Thus far it is silent on what this latest polling analysis indicates.

No comments: