Australian Federal Election 2022: it seems we live in interesting times.

 

IMAGE: The Australian, 18 April 2022
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Another Newspoll was published by The Australian on 18 April 2022.  

The results were as follows......

Survey of Federal Election Voting Intentions

First Preference:

Labor – 36% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Coalition – 35% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Greens – 12% ( up 2 since10 April poll)

One Nation – 4% (up 1 since 10 April poll)

United Australia Party – 4% (no change since10 April poll)

Others – 9% (down 1 since 10 April poll)

Two Party Preferred:

Labor 53% – (no change since 10 April poll)

Coalition – 47% (no change since 10 April poll)

Better PM:

Scott Morrison – 44% (no change since 10 April poll)

Anthony Albanese – 37% (down 2 since 10 April poll)

Undecided – 19% (up 2 since 10 April poll)

Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – Satisfied 43% (up 1), Dissatisfied 52% (down 2) & Uncommitted est. 5%

Anthony Albanese – Satisfied 37% (down 5), Dissatisfied 51% (up 6) & Uncommitted est. 12%

Net Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – minus 9% (up 3)

Anthony Albanese – minus 14% (down 11)

On the basis of the two party preferred percentage points if an election had been held between 14-17 April 2022 then Labor would have won government, with possibly 80 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 65 seats. This is the same outcome predicted by the Newspoll results of 6-9 April, but markedly less favourable to Labor than the Newspoll survey results of  31 March-3 April.

Resolve Strategic-9 Entertainment released the results of a limited voter intention survey on Sunday 17 April 2022, which had primary voting intention coming in at Coalition 35% to Labor 34%. Poll Bludger ran the 2019 Two Party Preferred data against those percentages & the outcome went Labor 52% to Coalition 48%. Which means that if an election had been held between 11-16 April Labor would likely have won with 9 seat lead in the House of Representatives. This was somewhat awkward for those editors, commentators & journalists who had initially been predicting an outright win for Morrison on the basis of that particular survey.

Newspoll results show the Morrison Government losing ground since 27 June 2021 and Labor in positive Two Party Preferred territory across the same period. Enthusiasm for Scott Morrison as “Preferred PM” has been gradually falling since 21 February 2021 but Anthony Albanese has been lagging behind Morrison on this particular indicator in all but one Newspoll during the same period. In itself “Preferred PM” is not a stand alone indicator of success at a federal election and party leaders do go on to win government will less than stellar approval numbers.

However, mainstream media is reporting a record number of “Independent” candidates registering for the coming federal election and, on social media platforms there is some anecdotal evidence of strong support for such candidates and for The Greens. If predictive percentages tighten ahead of election day, this support may translate into more than 6 House of Representative seats going to Independents/minor parties and it is possible that neither of the two major parties will achieve an outright majority at the 21 May federal election. 

Four of these independent candidates have stated a willingness to enter into talks with Scott Morrison if citizens' ballot papers do not deliver him a clear majority - 51.5% of the national vote. These candidates are; Zoe Daniel (Ind Goldstein Vic), Allegra Spender (Ind Wentworth NSW), Sophie Scamps (Ind Mackellar NSW) and Kate Chaney (Ind Curtin WA). 

It seems we are living in interesting times.