Tuesday, 5 April 2022

COVID-19 Pandemic 2020-2022: State of Play in New South Wales and Northern NSW


According to Professor Raina McIntyre (Global Biosecurity, Head of Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute UNSW New South Wales) on 2 April 2022, COVID-19 case numbers are bouncing around. Case numbers in New South Wales have increased since a low of 4,916 daily cases on 21 February 2022. “In the past week, they have ranged from 17,000 to more than 25,000 a day”.


Part of the problem is the lack of testing and the lack of reporting. The message of “live with it” runs counter to the importance of reporting a positive test, if you can afford one. PCR testing remains restricted, so daily case numbers are a substantial underestimate and even the trends may not be accurate.” [my yellow highlighting]


As of 4pm 1 April 2022 there were 20,389 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales and a total of 268,761 active COVID-19 cases across the state the majority of which are being self-managed at home.


There were 1,302 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital as at 4pm 1 April, including 47 people in intensive care, 16 of whom require ventilation.


NSW Health reported the deaths of 13 people with COVID-19 – seven women and six men. Of these, 7 people were aged in their 70s, 5 people were aged in their 80s and 1 person was aged in their 90s.


Included in the day’s total of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were 520 people in Northern NSW.


There were 14 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital with 2 in intensive care.


These 520 cases were all 7 local government areas within Northern NSW:


Tweed Shire 149 cases across postcodes 2483, 2484, 2485,

Lismore City – 82 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480;

Clarence Valley 79 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2453, 2464, 2466;

Ballina Shire 75 cases across postcodes

Byron Shire 73 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,

Richmond Valley 51 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Kyogle Shire 11 cases across postcode 2474;

TOTAL 520


According to the federal Dept. of Health as of 31 March 2022 there were 229 COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care facilities involving 976 residents

A full list of these NSW facilities can be found at

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/04/covid-19-outbreaks-in-australian-residential-aged-care-facilities-1-april-2022_0.pdf


On 10 February 2022, the Australian Government announced changes to the definition of fully vaccinated against COVID-19 so as to include vaccine booster doses required for those 16 years and over. The new term in use is “up to date” vaccination.


Therefore as of 1 April 2022 only 60.2% of people aged 16 years to 90 years and older, 79.5% of children aged 12 to 15 years and 26.9% of children aged 5 to 11 years are considered to be “up to date” (fully vaccinated).


The fact that New South Wales is falling behind recommended vaccination rates is a concern given this statement. 


ATAGI Statement, 26 March 2022:


ATAGI recommends an additional booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine to increase vaccine protection before winter for selected population groups (see Table 1) who are at greatest risk of severe illness from COVID-19 and who have received their primary vaccination and first booster dose. These groups are:

  • Adults aged 65 years and older
  • Residents of aged care or disability care facilities
  • People aged 16 years and older with severe immunocompromise (as defined in the ATAGI statement on the use of a 3rd primary dose of COVID-19 vaccine in individuals who are severely immunocompromised)
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 50 years and older.

The additional winter booster dose can be given from 4 months or longer after the person has received their first booster dose, or from 4 months after a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, if infection occurred since the person’s first COVID-19 booster dose.

ATAGI recommends that the rollout of the additional booster dose for these groups starts from April 2022, coinciding with the rollout of the 2022 influenza vaccination program.


As of 4pm 2 April 2022 there were 16,807 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales and a total of ? active COVID-19 cases across the state the majority of which are being self-managed at home.


There were 1,355 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital as at 4pm 2 April, including 50 people in intensive care, 19 of whom require ventilation.


NSW Health reported the deaths of 11 people with COVID-19 – seven women and four men. Of these, 1 person was aged in their 30s, 1 person was in their 50s, 1 person was in their 70s, 6 people were in their 80s and 2 people were in their 90s.


Included in the day’s total of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were 471 people in Northern NSW.


There were 14 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital with 1 in intensive care.


These 471 cases were all 7 local government areas within Northern NSW:


Tweed Shire – 144 cases across postcodes 2484, 2484, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

Clarence Valley – 75 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2462, 2464, 2465;

Byron Shire – 71 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

Lismore City – 67 cases across postcodes

Ballina Shire – 66 cases across postcodes 2478, 2479;

Richmond Valley – 41 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2472, 2473;

Kyogle Shire – 5 cases across postcode 2474;

Tenterfield Shire – 2 cases across postcode 2476; Tenterfield is not in the NNSWLHD but shares a postcode so some cases are included here.

TOTAL 471


On deaths in Australia…..


At the tail end of the Delta wave in December 2021, where we could reasonably point to the start of the Omicron wave, we had 2006 deaths. The Omicron wave saw close to a 200 per cent increase in deaths compared with all previous waves combined, with 5928 deaths by March 29. This includes six deaths in children under 10, two in people aged 10-19 years, 16 in the group 20-29 and 52 deaths in people 30-39 years old. The largest single age group for deaths was in people 80-89 years, with 2025 deaths. Another 2100 or so deaths were recorded in people aged 40-79 years and the remainder – about 1400 deaths – in people aged 90 years and over. [Professor Raina McIntyre writing in The Saturday Paper, 2 April 2022]


As of 4pm 3 April 2022 there were 15,572 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales and a total of 266,110 active COVID-19 cases across the state the majority of which are being self-managed at home.


There were 1,418 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital as at 4pm 3 April, including 56 people in intensive care, 18 of whom require ventilation.


NSW Health reported the deaths of 6 people with COVID-19 four women and two men. Of these, 1 person was aged in their 70s, 3 people were in their 80s and 2 people were in their 90s.


Included in the day’s total of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were 437 people in Northern NSW.


There were 19 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital with 1 in intensive care.


These 437 cases were all 7 local government areas within Northern NSW:


Tweed Shire – 113 cases across postcodes 2483, 2484, 2486, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

Ballina Shire – 83 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

Byron Shire – 69 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

Clarence Valley – 62 cases across postcodes 2460, 2463, 2464;

Lismore City – 55 cases across postcode 2479;

Richmond Valley – 43 cases across postcodes 2469, 2479, 2471, 2472, 2473;

Kyogle Shire – 12 cases across postcode 2474.

TOTAL 437


A reminder......


NSW Health states: 


Everyone is urged to take simple precautions to protect each other from COVID-19, such as:

  • use a mask in indoor settings where you cannot maintain a safe physical distance from others

  • get your booster vaccine

  • get a test and isolate immediately if you have any COVID symptoms

  • clean your hands regularly.



SOURCES:

  • 2022 media releases from NSW Health

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2022-nsw-health.aspx

  • COVID-19 in NSW - up to 4pm

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx#today

  • Australian Dept. of Health, Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19



BACKGROUND


Current SARS-C0V-2 Variants of Concern in Australia


B.1.617.2 (Delta) and sub-lineages AY.*

B.1.1.529 (Omicron) and sub-lineages BA.*


SARS-CoV-2 Variants Which Decided To Call Australia Home


SARS-CoV-2 Variant A.2.2, Identified 2020-03-17, Australian lineage.

Australia 92.0%, New_Zealand 2.0%, Canada 2.0%, United States of America 2.0%, United Kingdom 1.0%.


SARS-CoV-2 Variant D.2, Identified 2020-03-19, Alias of B.1.1.25.2, Australia.

Australia 100.0%, United States of America 0.0%, Chile 0.0%, Mexico 0.0%, United Kingdom 0.0%.


SARS-CoV-2 Variant D.3, Identified 2020-06-14, Alias of B.1.1.25.3, Australia.

Australia 100.0%.


SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.136, Identified 2020-06-03, Australian lineage.

Australia 86.0%, Turkey 7.0%, Russia 5.0%, United Kingdom 2.0%.


SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.142, Identified 2020-03-03, Australian lineage.

Australia 39.0%, United Kingdom 12.0%, Iceland 12.0%, Switzerland 6.0%, United States of America 6.0%.

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