In the week ending 17 June 2021: community transmission of COVID-19 stood at 4 new cases; across the state there were only 41 active cases remaining, the average infection growth factor was 1.33; only 1 infected person was currently hospitalized with another 36 being cared for in the community; and, only 3 out of the state's 15 local health districts had recorded confirmed COVID-19 cases during those 7 days.
Life seemed so straightforward then as it appeared that New South Wales might just be starting to turn an epidemiological corner.
However, that particular June community transmission number represented the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Outbreak and, due to mismanagement by both the Australian & NSW governments, that variant infection spread with ease across Greater Sydney. Weekly case numbers for locally acquired infections rising into their thousands and hospitalizations mounting.
Although infection and hospitalisation numbers eventually fell, even now new community transmission case numbers still hover somewhere between one & two thousand over a 7 day period.
So where does the NSW population stand in relation to SARS-CoV-2 and its Delta and Omicron variants, now that est. 93.1% of those 16 years of age to 90 years & over are fully vaccinated and est. 77.7% of those 12 to 15 years of age are fully vaccinated and public health order restrictions are fast vanishing.
NSW Health & Northern NSW Local Health District, media release excerpts, COVID-19 data for 1 December to 11 December 2021:
# NSW recorded 271 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 1 December 2021. The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW remains at 6. There are currently 144 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, 10 of whom require ventilation. The number of COVID-19 infected people being cared for outside a hospital setting was 2,112 cases as at 1 December - up from 2,058 on 23 November 2021.
Two new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 1 December. These cases are located in the Grafton and Yamba areas of Clarence Valley Local Government Area, and both are under investigation.
# NSW recorded 337 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 2 December 2021. There is now a total of 9 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 140 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, 10 of whom require ventilation.
One new case of COVID-19 was reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 2 December. The case is located in the Lismore Local Government Area and is linked to an existing case. Northern NSW Local Health District can also confirm that two additional cases have been confirmed in travellers to the region visiting Byron Bay. These cases are not included in NNSWLHD’s case tally, and contact tracing is underway.
# NSW recorded 325 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 3 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 13 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW, and results on further likely cases are due later today. There are currently 139 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation.
Three new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 3 December. One case is located in Grafton, the source is under investigation. One case is located in the Ballina LGA, a household contact of a confirmed case. One case is located in Byron Bay, a household contact of a confirmed case. Northern NSW Local Health District can also confirm that one additional case has been confirmed in a traveller to the region, who has been visiting Byron Bay. This case is not reflected in NNSWLHD’s case tally as the infection was acquired elsewhere.
# NSW recorded 286 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 4 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 15 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW, and results on further likely cases are due later today. There are currently 148 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 26 people in intensive care, five of whom require ventilation.
Three new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 4 December. One case is in Lismore and the source is under investigation. Two cases are located in Byron Bay, one of which is under investigation and the other is linked to a known case.
# NSW recorded 208 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 5 December 2021 night. There is now a total of 25 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 152 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, five of whom require ventilation.
No NNSWLHD media release available for 5 December 2021.
# NSW recorded 260 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 6 December 2021, including 2 deaths. There is now a total of 31 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 155 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 28 people in intensive care, five of whom require ventilation.
One new case of COVID-19 was reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 6 December. The case is located in the Kingscliff area of Tweed Local Government Area, and was acquired interstate.
# NSW recorded 403 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 7 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 34 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 151 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, seven of whom require ventilation. The number of COVID-19 infected people being cared for outside a hospital setting was 2,362 cases as at 7 December - up from 2,112 on 1 December 2021.
Eight new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 7 December. Of these cases, six are located in the Byron Local Government Area (LGA), and two are located in the Tweed LGA. All are linked to known cases, and one is a household contact of an existing case.
# NSW recorded 420 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm on 8 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 42 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 151 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation.
11 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 8 December. Of these cases, eight are located in the Byron Local Government Area (LGA), one in the Ballina LGA, one in Lismore LGA, and one in Tweed LGA. Nine of the 11 cases are linked to existing cases, and two are under investigation.
# NSW recorded 516 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 9 December 2021. The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW remains at 42. There are currently 158 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, nine of whom require ventilation.
21 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 9 December. Of the cases, 13 were in the Byron Local Government Area, 4 in the Lismore LGA, 3 in the Ballina LGA, and 1 in the Tweed LGA. 20 of the 21 cases are linked to an existing case or cluster. One of the cases in the Lismore LGA is under investigation. A further 8 cases have now been linked to the Coorabell Hall event on Saturday 4 December, making 16 in total. A further two cases are now linked to the Woody’s Surf Shack Night Club, making a total of 3.
# NSW recorded 560 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 10 December 2021, including 3 deaths. There is a total of 45 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 150 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation.
35 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 10 December. Of the cases, 23 were in the Byron Local Government Area, 2 in the Lismore LGA, 8 in the Ballina LGA, and 2 in the Tweed LGA. 30 of the 35 cases are linked to an existing case or cluster. One case in the Ballina LGA, one case in the Tweed LGA, two cases in Byron LGA and one case in Lismore LGA remain under investigation. NNSWLHD is seeing an increase in cases in the Byron Bay region, and the majority of them are associated with venues including pubs, clubs and party settings.
# NSW recorded 485 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm, 11 December 2021, including 2 deaths. There is a total of 55 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern in NSW. There were 10 new cases confirmed with the Omicron variant overnight, and more are expected as results of genomic testing are confirmed. To date, one Omicron case has been admitted to hospital in NSW for treatment of COVID-19. There are currently 156 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 23 people in intensive care, seven of whom require ventilation.
30 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 11 December.
Of the cases, 18 were in the Byron Local Government Area, 4 in the Lismore LGA, 6 in the Ballina LGA, 1 in the Tweed LGA and 1 in the Richmond Valley LGA. 21 of the 30 cases are linked to an existing case or cluster. Three cases in the Ballina LGA, one case in the Tweed LGA, three cases in Byron LGA, one case in Lismore LGA and one case in the Richmond Valley LGA remain under investigation. To date no cases in NNSWLHD have been identified as the Omicron variant.
This represents a surge in local infection numbers which had begun to grow once the NSW Perrottet Government opened regional NSW to travellers from Greater Sydney which itself remains a significant source of COVID-19 community infection, as well as to travellers from elsewhere in NSW and interstate.
However it is impossible to calculate how many people have travelled into Northern NSW whilst infectious, as abruptly on 19 November 2021 NSW Premier Perrottet removed from public view the dataset which reliably tracked sources of confirmed COVID-19 infections by postcode, local health district and local government area.
UPDATE:
ABC News, 12 December 2021:
The Reff [infection rate] currently stands at 1.38, a jump from 1.25 just a couple of days ago — and in line with the "bell-shaped curve" expected in epidemics.
"So what we're seeing now is typically that initial rise in cases which we saw at the start of the previous wave, so it's definitely going to be a wave coming up," Professor Esterman said.
"The effective reproduction number is now as high as it's been since the 23rd of August and the doubling time for case numbers is 14 days, so every 14 days the number of cases is going to double at the current rate."
He also said a peak in cases would likely not happen until February.
The rate of hospitalisations is the one bit of "good news" remaining stable over recent weeks with yesterday's figure of 150 slightly lower than previous days. .....
