Shorter Morrison Government on Climate Change: Get used to it!

https://youtu.be/6BmbvTvFQ3g

Lies and misinformation about Australian fires being spread on social media in January 2020

"Arson is the act of intentionally and maliciously destroying or damaging property through the use of fire." [Australian Institute of Criminology, 9 November 2004]

The first response of hard right politicians and climate change deniers when faced with the effects of climate change is to resort to lies and misdirection.

This has begun to occur with a vengeance in 2020 with exaggerated claims concerning arson during the 2019-20 bushfire season.

ABC News, 8 January 2020: 

Australia's bushfire emergency is being exploited on social media, as misinformation is spread through cyberspace via hundreds of thousands of posts. 

Out-of-date photos of survivors and inaccurate fire maps have been widely shared, including by international celebrities. 

As authorities fight the flames on firegrounds around the country, an ABC investigation has revealed a battle of a very different kind online. 

One area of misinformation has been the hashtag #ArsonEmergency on Twitter. 

Queensland University of Technology (QUT) researcher Dr Timothy Graham analysed 315 accounts posting #ArsonEmergency and said a third of them displayed highly-automated and inauthentic behaviour. 

INFOGRAPHIC: Tweets downplaying climate change were shared tens of thousands of times. 

He said the topic appeared to be attracting a "suspiciously high number of bot-like and troll-like accounts". 

The ABC found many of the suspicious accounts were amplifying unproven suggestions arson had been the overwhelming cause of Australia's disastrous bushfire season. 

Several Twitter users were misrepresenting a media report about police investigating whether some of the fires were deliberately lit, despite the same report noting the blazes on the NSW South Coast were likely caused by lightning strikes. 

Some incorrectly quoted Australian police as having dismissed the link between the fires and climate change. An article posted by an American far-right figure went one step further, claiming left-wing ecoterrorists were responsible for lighting the blazes.... 

Read the full article here.

The Guardian, 8 January 2019:

Victoria police say there is no evidence any of the devastating bushfires in the state were caused by arson, contrary to the spread of global disinformation exaggerating arsonist arrests during the current crisis.

A misleading figure suggesting 183 arsonists have been arrested “since the start of the bushfire season” spread across the globe on Wednesday, after initial reports in News Corp were picked up by Donald Trump Jr, US far-right websites and popular alt-right personalities.....

Queensland police said between 10 September and 8 January there had been 1,068 reported bushfires in the state, of which 114 had been deliberately or maliciously lit through human involvement and have been subject to police enforcement action.....

NSW police statistics show 24 individuals have been arrested for deliberately lighting bushfires during the current fire season.

But a Rural Fire Service spokesman told Sky News on Wednesday that the majority of the larger fires in the state were caused by lightning, and that arson was a relatively small source of ignition.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 10 January 2020:

A News Corp employee has slammed the organisation for its "irresponsible", "dangerous" and "damaging" coverage of the national bushfire crisis, urging executive chairman Michael Miller to think about the "big picture".

In an email distributed to News Corp Australia staff and addressed to Mr Miller, commercial finance manager Emily Townsend said she had been filled with anxiety and disappointment over the coverage, which had impacted her ability to work.

Ms Townsend, who has worked for News Corp Australia for five years, thanked Mr Miller for the email about fundraising initiatives in relation to the fires, but said the efforts did not offset the company's coverage of the bushfires.

"I have been severely impacted by the coverage of News Corp publications in relation to the fires, in particular the misinformation campaign that has tried to divert attention away from the real issue which is climate change to rather focus on arson (including misrepresenting facts)," she said.

"I find it unconscionable to continue working for this company, knowing I am contributing to the spread of climate change denial and lies. The reporting I have witnessed in The Australian, The Daily Telegraph and Herald Sun is not only irresponsible, but dangerous and damaging to our communities and beautiful planet that needs us more than ever to acknowledge the destruction we have caused and start doing something about it."….

After the email leaked, Ms Townsend said she felt compelled to send it to Mr Miller's email group because of the "sickening" coverage the media organisation had given to the bushfires.

"Everything I said in the email I stand by. I feel sick, not because the email has been circulated but because I have been contributing to this deception by continuing to work for this organisation. I haven't been able to sleep, this has really preoccupied my thinking; it is unconscionable what this company has been doing when it comes to climate change," she said.

Ms Townsend's comments follow an influx of false and misleading posts spread on social media websites this week about the cause of the bushfires, which have raised concerns among politicians and academics....

It would not surprise me to find that Tophan Guerin - contracted by Scott Morrison to handle his social media election campaign in 2019 - had a hand in starting this fake news conflagration which News Corp has vigorously stoked on a daily basis.

NSW recorded crime statistics for the 2019-20 financial year will not be available before July this year. However, arson statistics for the 24 months up to September 2019 are publicly available.

These statistics show that there was a -36.1% trend fall in the total number of persons taken to court on arson related charges in those 24 months.

As of end September 2019 the NSW arson rate was 62.8 per 100,000 head of population.

According to NSW Rural Fire Service spokesman Ben Shepherd the vast majority of major fires in the state since August 2019 were the result of lightning storms.

A more realistic picture of what has been happening on the ground since August 2019 can be found on the NSW Police website and in online media articles under The Sydney Morning Herald and The Guardian mastheads, rather than posts or tweets with the hashtag #ArsonEmergency.

In the 23 locations listed below only 8 had fires which met the definition of arson and, of these only 6 involved grass or bushland fires.

Information from NSW Police website & non-News Corp mainstream media articles:

Wednesday 21 August 2019

* Three girls aged 12, 13 and 14 allegedly set fire to grasslands on thirteen occasions in the Kempsey area of the mid-North Coast, Grasslands which at the time were being controlled by NSWRFS.

Monday 11 November 2019

* 27 year old man during a total fire ban allegedly lit a campfire at Wallacia in the Sydney outer western metropolitan region.

Tuesday 12 November 2019

* 35 year old man living at Prestons in the Sydney outer western metropolitan region allegedly burned fence palings in a cylindrical BBQ causing a fire.

* Man living in Laylor Park in the Sydney outer western metropolitan region allegedly lit a coal BBQ during a total fire ban.

* 9 year old boy allegedly set grass alight with blowtorch causing a grass fire behind a street in Nowra on the South Coast.

Wednesday 13 November 2019

* 5 men in different locations were allegedly found to be breaching total fire bans by lighting barbeque fires, incinerating rubbish or lighting a candle at a campsite.

Thursday 14 November 2019

*51 year old man allegedly attempted a backburn to protect his cannabis crop and lost control of the fire which spread across est. 5,400ha in the Ebor region.

Tuesday 26 November 2019

* 19 year old NSWRFS volunteer firefighter charged with allegedly starting seven fires in the Bega Valley on the South Coast between October 17 and November 26

Saturday 30 November 2019

* 15 year old girl and 23 year old man allegedly set fire to a grandstand in Orange, destroying est. about 40% of the structure.

Thursday 5 December 2019

* 40 year old man allegedly deliberately set fire to grass on a vacant lot in Telarah on the Central Coast.

Sunday 22 December 2019

* Reserve at Wellington in the central west of the state caught fire and a number of boys were allegedly seen running from the area. An 11 year old boy attended Wellington Police Station in relation to the incident.

* Two 18 year old men allegedly set off fireworks in Bright Park, Guildford  (Sydney) causing grass fires.

Thursday 26 December 2019

* 71 year old man allegedly lit fire for land clearance/fire break without permit/notice and permited fire to escape his land in Deua River Valley causing extensive fire damage to nearby Wandera State Forest (>100ha) and Monga National Park on the South Coast. This fireground merged with other fires, eventually covering est. 83,425ha and was still listed as out of control on 10 January 2020.

Friday 27 December 2019

* 23 year old man allegedly deliberately lit two fires in bushland at Neath and Aberdare in the Lower Hunter Valley region.

Monday 30 December 2019

* 18 year old man charged with 5 counts of malicious damage after allegedly setting fire to 3 cars and 3 garbage bins in the township of Raymond Terrace in the Hunter Valley.

Thursday 2 January 2020

* 84-year-old man on a rural property at Kalkite in the Southern Highlands allegedly lit a fire for land clearance/fire break without permit/notice.

Saturday 4 January 2020

* 63 year old man living in Cooma in the Snowy Mountains region allegedly had a small fire burning in a shallow pit dug into the ground in his backyard for the purposes of cooking.

Sunday 5 January 2020

* 38 year old man and his companion allegedly started a small scrub fire in the Taro area of the Hunter Valley after a cooking fire ignited brush.

* 44 year old man allegedly lit fires for land clearance/fire break without permit/notice and set fire to the property at Countegany in the Southern Highlands.

Friday 10 January 2020

* 40 year old man allegedly set alight two metal drums filled with plastic at Schofields in Sydney’s western suburbs, during a total fire ban.

Former Australian PM John Howard speaks up in support of current PM Scott Morrison

Former Australian prime minister John Winston Howard began 2020 by praising the current prime minister and closet climate change denier, Scott Morrison.

Apparently Howard has long shared Morrison's denialist world view. Do readers remember this?

ABC News, 13 December 2011:

Former prime minister John Howard has lent his support to a book aimed at school children which argues the theory of human-induced global warming is a scam. 

Last night, the former prime minister launched the publication, the latest from controversial geologist Professor Ian Plimer. 

The book, called How to Get Expelled From School, rejects the predominant scientific opinion on climate change. The book is billed as "an anti-global warmist manual for the younger reader". 

Professor Plimer launched the book, a follow up to his book Heaven and Earth, at the Sydney Mining Club. 

The new work includes 101 questions which it says students can use to challenge their teachers on climate science. 

Professor Plimer says worried parents prompted him to write the book. 

"After Heaven and Earth came out I had many parents write to me and say, 'Look, what do we do, our kids are being fed activism. 

I want my children to have the basics of scientists, I don't want to be fed activism'," he said. Mr Howard helped launch the book and last night said the "progressive left" had a "grip on the commanding heights of education instruction in this country"....

This is how the world sees Australia and Australians in January 2020

A British perspective.....

"..the boys from the Morrison campaign were the Neville Chamberlains of Australian politics who had convinced Australians to ignore the greatest threat to their nation’s security" [TheObserver columnist Nick Cohen writing in The Guardian, 5 January 2020]

The Guardian, 5 January 2020:

There are worse leaders than Scott Morrison. The “international community” includes torturers, mass murderers, ethnic cleansers 
and kleptomaniacs beside whom he seems almost benign. But no 
leader in the world is more abject than the prime minister of Australia.

He cuts a pathetic figure. A leader must speak honestly to his people in a crisis.The sly tactics of climate change denial, the false consoling words that it’s a scare and we can carry on as before, have left Morrison’s words as meaningless as a hum in the background. Nothing he says is worth hearing.

Australian English is rich in its descriptions of worthless men: as useful as tits on a bull, a dry thunderstorm, a third armpit, a glass door on a dunny, a pocket on a singlet, an ashtray on a motorbike, a submarine with screen doors, a roo-bar on a skateboard. Morrison is all of the above, but a British saying sums him up: “too clever by half”. Morrison won last year’s Australian general election, although his conservative Liberal party was expected to lose, by slyly mobilising opinion against tax rises in general and environmental taxes in particular.

The climate change denialism he espoused is a moving target. In the 1990s, lobbyists funded by the oil industry acted as if the overwhelming majority of scientists who understood the subject were in a conspiracy against the public. They accused the authors of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports of being guilty of a “major deception” when they discussed the human influence on climate. Many still hold to the original sin of this denialism.

Even as Australia burned last week, Tony Abbott, Morrison’s conservative predecessor, was still saying the world was “in the grip of a climate cult”. Abbott proved he was willing to make others suffer for his wilfully ignorant belief by scrapping a carbon tax when he was in power in Australia in 2014. A fallback position is emerging. It accepts that manmade climate change is real but withdraws the concession as soon as it has been made and loses it in an obfuscatory smoke.

The final fallback and the final degradation will come, I predict, in the mid-2020s when the right abandons denialism completely, admits that climate change is catastrophic, but adds it’s far too late to do anything about it, which it may well be.

Scott Morrison is hunkered down in stage two. He grudgingly acknowledges the existence of man-made climate change but hurriedly adds that other causes are at work. The climate has always changed and it’s not worth bearing the costs of challenging a polluting culture. It worked in last year’s elections, but sounds absurd today.

“By not recognising climate change as a serious threat you fail to prepare overworked, underappreciated first responders for larger, more frequent bushfires that devastate communities,” said one previously solid Morrison voter, after he had learned the truth about conservatism as his family waited to be evacuated from a New South Wales beach.

Despite its failure, perhaps because of its failures, the do-nothing Australian right remains admired across the conservative world. The 2019 election was meant to be a climate change election about the killing of the Great Barrier Reef, the extreme drought and average summer temperatures across the continent hitting 40C. Yet Morrison and his campaign team managed to turn it into an election about the Australian Labor party’s tax plans.

So impressed was Boris Johnson that he hired Morrison’s boys to win the British general election. Fawning coverage followed of the digital “whiz-kids” from New Zealand: Sean Topham, 28, and Ben Guerin, 24. In Australia, the hotshots refined their technique of dumping hundreds of crude variations on the same theme on social media. They described how Labor would raise taxes and warned that a proposal to encourage electric cars threatened motorists. Labor wanted to hit “Australians who love being out there in their four-wheel drives”, said Morrison, as his propagandists targeted ads at owners of Ford Rangers, Toyota Hilux and every other popular model, saying that Labor would increase the price of “Australia’s most popular cars”. In Britain, the same team banged home the crude message in a thousand different ways that Johnson would “get Brexit done”.

Politicians and political journalists who eulogise the cunning of clever operators aren’t being wholly asinine. How a party wins a campaign remains a matter of importance. But not one of them added, after the praise for the wise guys and whiz-kids had ended, that the boys from the Morrison campaign were the Neville Chamberlains of Australian politics who had convinced Australians to ignore the greatest threat to their nation’s security. It’s as if crime writers spent their time detailing the cunning of criminals while never mentioning the victims left bleeding on the floor.......

Read the full article here.

An American perspective.....

"Perhaps more than any other wealthy nation on Earth, Australia is at risk from the dangers of climate change. It has spent most of the 21st century in a historic drought. Its tropical oceans are more endangered than any other biome by climate change. Its people are clustered along the temperate and tropical coasts, where rising seas threaten major cities. Those same bands of livable land are the places either now burning or at heightened risk of bushfire in the future." [Journalist Robinson Meyer writing in The Atlantic, 4 January 2020]

FIGHTING BACK AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE DENIALISM: a hit, a palpable hit!

Putting the fallacious argument against lowering Australia's greenhouse gas emissions into perspective.......

The Age, letter to the editor,17 December 2019, p.20:

Fightback against Australian Morrison Government's attempt to scuttle effective global climate change action

The Morrison Coalition Government's use of 'carbon credits' as an accounting trick to cover failure to reduce Australian greenhouse gas emissions since 2014 will put the international goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C out of reach - thus plunging the world into catastrophic climate change - is being resisted by thirty-one other sovereign nations.

Media Release, 14 December 2019:

Leading countries set benchmark for carbon markets with San Jose Principles

MADRID – As UN climate talks in Madrid near its closing, a group of leading countries are working together to secure an ambitious outcome is delivered on the Article 6 negotiations. 

To make that happen, they have agreed on a set of principles, known as the San Jose Principles for High Ambition and Integrity in International Carbon Markets, that constitute the basis upon which a fair and robust carbon market should be built.

Known as the Unconventional Group, these countries (see the list below) have been working since the Pre-COP25 in San José, Costa Rica, to increase the level of ambition in talks dealing with carbon markets. 

The group presented the Chilean COP Presidency a set of principles (see attached) that outline what a successful outcome could look like in this Article, in the hope that this will support the Presidency’s efforts in creating an ambitious outcome.

Parties include (updated December 14, 11:45pm, CET)

1. Costa Rica
2. Switzerland
3. Belize
4. Colombia
5. Paraguay
6. Perú
7. Marshall Islands
8. Vanuatu
9. Luxembourg
10. Cook Islands
11. Germany
12. Sweden
13. Denmark
14. Austria
15. Grenada
16. Estonia
17. New Zealand
18. Spain
19. Ireland
20. Latvia
21. The Netherlands
22. Norway
23. Slovenia
24. Belgium
25. Fiji
26. Portugal
27. France
28. United Kingdom
29. Italy
30. Finland
31. Trinidad and Tobago

Quotes from country representatives

Carlos Manuel Rodriguez, Minister of Environment and Energy of Costa Rica, said, “This is a definition of success on Article 6. Anything below these San Jose principles won’t create a fair and robust carbon market. The diverse group of countries supporting these principles know we need a just outcome to keep the 1.5C target within reach. The principles keep the door open for 1.5C, while ensuring the highest possible ambition in mitigation and adaptation. We encourage other parties to join our efforts in creating a basis upon which a fair and robust carbon market should be built”

Franz Perrez, Head of Delegation of Switzerland, said, “If markets are to increase ambition, the rules have to be as robust as the San Jose Principles”

Ambassador Janine Felson of Belize said, “An ambitious Article 6 outcome will create a new architecture for markets that moves beyond zero-sum offsetting approaches to accelerate the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is a key principle for members of my group and that is why these San Jose Principles are important”

Ricardo Lozano, Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development of Colombia, said “Colombia, as a highly vulnerable country that has supported an effective implementation of the Paris Agreement will apply these environmental San Jose Principles to guide its participation in the carbon market and ensure our efforts will help to build the basis for a robust system that promotes the highest climate ambition”

Svenja Schulze, Minister for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety of Germany, said, “Art. 6 can be a very important part of implementing the Paris Agreement but it must be designed to increase ambition. The San José Principles lay out the essence of a robust mechanism which ensures environmental integrity”

Isabella Lövin, Minister for Environment and Climate, and Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden, said, “The San Jose Principles provide an important foundation for the architecture of Article 6. Robust accounting that ensures environmental integrity and avoids double counting is key for Article 6 to deliver on climate mitigation and raising ambition.”

Dan Jørgensen, Minister for Climate, Energy and Utilities, Denmark, said, “Denmark supports the San José principles. The world is counting on us to secure a robust system that fosters ambition”

Hon. James Shaw, Minister for Climate Change, New Zealand, said, “If we are to prevent the climate crisis, it is critically important for countries to work to the highest possible standards. This is why New Zealand supports the San Jose Principles on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement”

Eric Wiebes, Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy of the Netherlands said, “If we want real emission reductions, we should be absolutely firm on the environmental integrity of the multilateral system. Without proper accounting, our climate action will be meaningless. We can show flexibility on certain issues, but not on the San Jose Principles for international carbon markets.”

Minister Alain Maron, Minister of  the Government of the Brussels-Capital Region, responsible for Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Participatory Democracy of Belgium, said, “We need robust and comprehensive rules for Article 6 so that markets can help drive ambition towards the PA goals and so that its environmental integrity and the SDGs are protected. We also need such rules to facilitate a global level playing field and to provide a signal of trust to all market actors.”

Ola Elvestuen, Norwegian Minister of Climate and Environment, said, “We all need to increase ambition. Carbon markets can have an important role for us to do more together. If we follow the San Jose Principles we are promoting robust markets with environmental integrity.”

Mrs. Camille Robinson-Regis, Hon. Minister of Planning and Development of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, said,"The importance of environmental integrity and overall mitigation are essential and critical elements of the market rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The market must be governed by robust rules to inspire the confidence of the private sector  and state and non state entities to participate fully and so ensure that operational and effective market mechanism under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. To do otherwise would undermine the utility of the market mechanism to contribute to the achievement of the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Trinidad and Tobago supports such a robust system of rules.”

---

San Jose Principles for High Ambition and Integrity in International Carbon Markets

At the Pre-COP, a large number of participants shared their expectations on what is needed to deliver a robust and ambitious outcome for Article 6. 

They were of the view that the implementation of the Paris Agreement must be firmly grounded in what the best available science tells us is necessary to deliver on the long-term temperature goal of the Agreement: the highest possible ambition in mitigation and adaptation.

As the end of the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol approaches, there is an urgent need for clarity with regard to the future international framework for use of market-based approaches towards international climate goals.

They expressed support to the COP presidency, and to work together with others to secure an ambitious outcome in Madrid to deliver the following principles, through an Article 6 rule book that at minimum:

• Ensures environmental integrity and enables the highest possible mitigation ambition
• Delivers an overall mitigation in global emissions, moving beyond zero-sum offsetting approaches to help accelerate the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions
• Prohibits the use of pre-2020 units, Kyoto units and allowances, and any underlying reductions toward Paris Agreement and other international goals
• Ensures that double counting is avoided and that all use of markets toward international climate goals is subject to corresponding adjustments.
• Avoids locking in levels of emissions, technologies or carbon-intensive practices incompatible with the achievement of the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal.
• Applies allocation methodologies and baseline methodologies that support domestic NDC achievement and contribute to achievement of the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal
• Uses CO2-equivalence in reporting and accounting for emissions and removals, fully applying the principles of transparency, accuracy, consistency, comparability and completeness
• Uses centrally and publicly accessible infrastructure and systems to collect, track, and share the information necessary for robust and transparent accounting
• Ensures incentives to progression and supports all Parties in moving toward economy-wide emission targets.
• Contributes to quantifiable and predictable financial resources to be used by developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation
• Recognizes the importance of capacity building to enable the widest possible participation by Parties under Article 6

They further recognize the importance of Article 6.8 in supporting Parties in the implementation of their NDCs through non-market approaches.

They invited other countries, multi-national and sub-national entities and multinational institutions to join us in the full operationalization of all the above principles, to support the highest possible ambition and environmental integrity.

ENDS

Just in time for Christmas the Morrison Government's risible greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 have been released

Well the federal parliament closed its doors for the year in early December so there is going to be no questioning of the Morrison Government on the floor of the House of Representatives until 4 February 2020.

It follows that it was time to release some of the government untruths packaged between paper covers or boxed in a PDF - just in time for Christmas.

On the first Tuesday of December the Morrison Government released
Australia’s emissions projections 2019, accompanied by a misleading fanfare from the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction & Liberal MP for Hume, Angus Taylor.

In part this emissions fairytale tells us that:

Australia’s 2030 target (26–28 per cent below 2005 levels) 

• Emissions in 2030 are projected to be 511 Mt CO2 -e, 52 Mt CO2 -e lower than the 2018 estimate for 2030 of 563 Mt CO2 -e. 

• To achieve Australia’s 2030 target of 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels, emissions reductions of 395 to 462 Mt CO2 -e between 2021 and 2030 are required. When overachievement of 411 Mt CO2 -e from previous targets is included, Australia will overachieve by 16 Mt CO2 -e (26 per cent reduction) and will require 51 Mt CO2 -e of cumulative emissions reduction between 2021 and 2030 to meet the 28 per cent reduction target. 

• Compared to the 2018 projections, the downward revision in the 2019 projections reflects: 

– the inclusion of the Climate Solutions Fund which will reduce emissions by 103 Mt CO2 -e, particularly in the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector;

 – the inclusion of other measures in the Climate Solutions Package including energy efficiency measures in the electricity and direct combustion sectors; 

– stronger renewables deployment – due to increased uptake of small and mid-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) projected by the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) and Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), and the inclusion of 50 per cent renewable energy targets in Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory; and 

– updated forecasts of electricity demand.

Sounds good until you look at the numbers.

In the original Kyoto Agreement Australia's baseline for accounting greenhouse gas emissions was 1990 and total national greenhouse gas emissions for that year were recorded as 610MT CO2-e.

Australia came away unhappy with the conference outcome, so bitched and griped at every turn until the baseline was moved, eventually being extended out to 2005.

In 2005 Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions were 611MT CO2-e if land use is included. The total changes to 522MT CO2-e if land use is excluded. 

The predictions for 2030 in the recent emissions projections are 511MT CO2-e land use included and 521MT CO2-e land use excluded.

There is a 100 point drop in the 2030 projection including land use and a 1 point drop with land use excluded.

It's  still a reduction right? Even if the Morrison Government got there by using an accounting trick?

Well no. Because - even with the carryover 'carbon credits' accounting trick which allows the the Morrison Government to subtract a total of 411MT CO-e from greenhouse gas emissions across selected annual totals - Australia is not meeting the undertakings made to the international community at the U.N. 2015 Paris climate change conference (COP 21).

In fact we have spent the six years between 2013 (when emissions total was 530MT CO2-e) and 2019 (when emissions total was 532MT CO2-e) just treading water, while the days and nights became hotter, our rivers ran dry and our forests burned. 

Next year emissions are expected to rise again to what they were in 2014, 534MT CO2-e.

In Paris Australia agreed to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030.

That would mean that Australia's emissions target in 2030 should be somewhere between 440MT CO2-e and 450MT CO2-e.

There is a shortfall in meeting those targets.

With land use included the target shortfall in projections is between est. 59MT CO2-e and 71MT CO2-e. With land use excluded the shortfall is between est. 69MT CO2-e and 81MT CO2-e.

That is a lot of mega tonnes. Especially if we were to correct the Morrison Govenment's creative accounting and remove this carryover credits from the equation.

Then the 2030 emissions reduction target shortfall would probably grow by arround est. 80-84 per cent.

Angus Taylor attended the 2-13 December 2019 UN Madrid Climate Change Conference (COP25) armed with his copy of that creative government accounting - probably believing that representatives of other nations would find his spiel believable. Though I rather suspect whenever he was at the other end of the room a number would have had their heads together quietly laughing at him. 

Notes:

Emissions are recorded as totalling 532MT CO2-e In 2018 and 2019. However using Morrison & Co's accounting trick it is reduced to a total of 328MT CO2-e in 2018 and -6MT CO2-e in 2019. See http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/aust-emissions-projects-chart-data-2019.xlsx.

All data the Australia's emissions projections 2019 relies on can be found at -
http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/emissions-projections-2019.

If readers want emissions totals & projections per year from 1990 to 2030 in a more digestible form, there is currently an interactive graph at -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/dec/10/the-coalition-isnt-being-honest-about-the-climate-crisis-but-neither-is-labor.