Water 101 in Australia: where catchment rainfall is 600mm per year or less a large in-river dam will not fill with water

Geraldine Doogue's ABC Radio Saturday Extra interview with Professor Quentin Grafton, water economist, ANU and UNESCO Chair in Water Economics and Transboundary Water Governance on why the political call for more large in-river dams is misguided and only creating problems for the future.

Prof. Grafton asserts that any dams built in an area where the rainfall is 600mm per year or less will not fill with water. 

Click on: 
https://abcmedia.akamaized.net/rn/podcast/2019/10/sea_20191005_0730.mp3 (14:42mins)

Annual Rainfall 

According to Water NSW published data:

Section of Maryland River, NSW
Google Earth

Maryland River catchment annual rainfall graph/plot is not available or does not exist.

Section of Aberfoyle River, NSW
Google Earth

Aberfoyle River catchment average annual rainfall was less than 600mm in six (6) out of last twenty-one (21) years and less than est. 670mm for another three (3) of those twenty-one years.

Section of the Mole River, NSW
Google Earth

Mole River catchment annual rainfall was less than 600mm in thirteeen (13) of the last eighteen (18) years.

Australian Home Affairs Minister calls for welfare payments to be stopped for climate change protesters

The six-person protest in Creek Street, Brisbane
Image: Daily Mail

According to an interview with 2GB radio shock jock Ray Hadley, Australian Minister for Home Affairs & Liberal MP for Dickson Peter Dutton is not happy with six climate change protesters belonging to Extinction Rebellion blocking Creek Street, Brisbane, for one hour and forty minutes on Wednesday 2 October 2019.

He also took exception to the fact that the magistrate they appeared before did not record convictions after all six entered guilty pleas.

Of course in the end Dutton sheeted home the blame for this incident to Queensland Labor governments appointing magistrates who were too tolerant of civil disobedience – just as he did in 2016 after Magistrate Trevor Morgan said he would probably be proud if it were his daughter taking part in protest action.

It seems Dutton hasn’t forgotten those protesters who climbed on his electoral office roof in 2016.

The New Daily, 3 October 2019: 

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has called for climate change protesters to be “named and shamed”, jailed and have their welfare payments stopped. 

Warning protesters in Queensland are “putting lives at risk”, Mr Dutton said the fines are not good enough after the activist group Extinction Rebellion caused traffic chaos in Brisbane. 

“The community expectation is that these people are fined or jailed and they should be jailed until their behaviour changes because they are putting lives at risks. They are diverting police and emergency service resources from tasks they should be undertaking otherwise,” Mr Dutton said. 

Speaking on radio 2GB, Mr Dutton was then asked by host Ray Hadley if the protesters should have their welfare payments stopped because they are “bludgers sticking themselves to roads”. 

“Well, I agree, Ray,” he said….. 

Mr Dutton urged people to surveil the protesters and distribute their images. 

“People should take these names and the photos of these people and distribute them as far and wide as they can, so that we shame these people,” Mr Dutton said. 

“They are acting outside of the law. Let their families know what you think of their behaviour.” 

“They keep turning up week after week because a slap on the wrist is just not working.” 

Mr Dutton also called for mandatory sentencing of protesters disrupting traffic and shutting down cities….. 

“But you know raiding farms, climbing on to the roof of my electoral office and then get told by the magistrate he would be proud of her if it his daughter had done it.

The Saturday Paper, 4 October 2019:

A number of Liberal National Party MPs have supported Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s call to strip welfare payments from climate protesters and jail them. Employment Minister Michaelia Cash told The Australian ($): “Taxpayers should not be ­expected to subsidise the protests of others.” Other supporters include ($) Scott Buchholz, the assistant minister for road safety. Their backing comes after Dutton agreed with the 2GB radio host Ray Hadley that welfare payments of climate protesters should be cut and added: “they should be jailed until their behaviour changes”.  The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, told the ABC that Dutton was starting to “sound more like a dictator than he is an elected politician. Because somebody says something that he doesn’t like, that he doesn’t support, he’s saying we’re going to strip away income support.” Some activists have taken leave from their jobs to protest against government inaction on climate change. The Morrison government is also seeking to require Newstart recipients who fail drug tests to use cashless welfare cards.

The Ugly Face of Climate Change Denialism on NSW North Coast: "your world's future is in the hands of God, not in the predictions of a little girl and false prophets"

Coffs Harbour Christian Community School, newsletter, 26 September 2019, p.1:

https://twitter.com/FairAusPol/status/1178869197574553601

The Daily Examiner, 3 October 2019, p.1:

The Dean of Grafton’s Christ Church Cathedral has spoken out against a Coffs Harbour school principal who used a school newsletter to slam students for their recent climate strike.

In a column released last Thursday, Coffs Harbour Christian Community School principal Rodney Lynn dismissed the climate change protest as “doomsday waffle talk” and took aim at the face of the global climate strike, Swedish 16-year-old Greta Thunberg.

In response, Christ Church Cathedral’s Very Reverend Gregory Jenks said the piece was typical of the agenda of conservative right-wing Christians, and said it was inappropriate commentary from someone involved in the education system.....

Rev Jenks said he believed the views of Mr Lynn were not good for the planet and not good for children.

“I think it betrays a stunning ignorance of thinking on climate science, and (Mr Lynn) is not in the same league to be up against thousands of climate scientists,” Rev Jenks said.....

Rev Jenks, who is an adjunct senior lecturer in the School of Theology at Charles Sturt University, said Mr Lynn’s use of scripture was “incredibly naive and fundamentalist”.

“What’s sad is this isn’t a personal agenda, this is typical of the agenda of conservative right-wing Christians articulating a ultra-conservative expression of Christianity and it’s nasty,” he said.

ABC News, 1 October 2019:

Trevor Crawford has two children at the school and said he was "absolutely disgusted" when he read the column in the school newsletter.

He said the column was "over the top", especially Mr Lynn's indirect comments about Ms Thunberg.

"To turn around and use her condition of Asperger's as a mental problem and that must be a reason why she shouldn't be believed, it's wrong," he said.

An estimated 6 million marchers participated in the global climate strikes, led by Ms Thunberg, on September 20 and 27 this year.

Liisa Rusanen from the Coffs Coast Climate Action Group also criticised Mr Lynn, saying "everything Greta Thunberg says is thoroughly backed by science".

"I'm surprised that a school principal doesn't recognise that.".....

The newsletter was published a day after Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned against causing children "needless anxiety" about climate change.

In 2004, Mr Lynn apologised after distributing leaflets describing state schools as "seed plots of future immorality, infidelity and lawlessness".

The school's chairman declined to comment, and Mr Lynn has been contacted for comment.

Daily Mail, headline, 1 October 2019:

White, middle-aged Christian private school principal slams climate campaigner Greta Thunberg, 16, as a 'little girl with mental problems' - and urges students not to believe her 'doomsday waffle talk'

BACKGROUND

Coffs Harbour City Council holds its next ordinary monthly meeting on 10 October 2019. Media reports this week suggest that councillors may be considering declaring a climate emergency, thereby joining 55 other Australian local governments who have declared to date. These include Clarence Valley, Lismore, Byron Bay and Tweed councils in the Norther Rivers region.

Students and supporters in the Coffs Habour area participated in the 20 September 2019 global School Strike 4 Climate. Coffs Harbour students also participated in two other school strike protests in 2018 & early 2019.

Climate Change in 2019: Want to speak truth to power in Australia? Here's how.....

The Canberra Times, 30 September 2019:

A record number of Australians have signed an online petition calling on the federal government to declare a climate emergency.

As of Monday afternoon, the e-petition had more than 160,000 signatures, after gaining traction on social media.

It's the highest number of signatures for an online petition to parliament.

"The overwhelming majority of climate scientists around the world have concluded that the climate is changing at unprecedented rates due to anthropogenic causes," it says.

"The result of these changes will be catastrophic for future generations and so we must act now to minimise both human and environmental destruction.

"We therefore ask the House to immediately act and declare a climate emergency in Australia. And introduce legislation that will with immediacy and haste reduce the causes of anthropogenic climate change."

Australians have until October 16 to sign the climate emergency e-petition, when its four-week time limit expires....

Petition can be accessed at https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list?id=EN1041.

By 5:36pm on 1 October 2019 the number of signatures attached to this petition stood at 176,082.

At that particular time the estimated Australian population was 25,476,409 men, women and children and the number of those registered to voter stood at est. 16,424,248 citizens 18 years of age and older.

To place the signatures figure into perspective; it was equivalent to 1.07 per cent of all registered voters and 0.69 per cent of the current estimated Australian population.

Another 0.31 per cent signing before one minute to midnight on 16 October would see this petition to the Australian Parliament equate to 1 per cent of the total population.

Have you signed yet?

Water raiders drop the pretence and go for source of Clarence Valley's drinking water

Having degraded their own rivers and failed to adequately plan their own water security for times of drought, local governments in the Murray-Darling Basin are calling for damming and diversion of water from the Northern NSW Clarence River system.

Thus far the Maryland River and the Aberfoyle River have been identified as desirable options by these wannabee water raiders. 

This is the Clarence River Catchment.

via Blicks River Guardians

The Aberfolye River is shown in the left hand lower curve of the catchment boundary.

The river is approximately 115km in length with an annual average water flow of 19,482 ML.

The Aberfoyle River* empties into the Guy Fawkes River which in turn runs into the Boyd River which is a tributary of the Nymbodia River which itself is the greatest contributor of water to the Clarence River system and the source of at least 95 per cent of Clarence Valley drinking water.

The Nymboida River is also the source for water storage held in the 30,000Ml Shannon Creek side dam which supplies water security for a combined total of 128,198 residents (as well as local businesses and over 5 million tourists annually) in Clarence Valley and Coffs Harbour City local government areas.

Ten years ago the Nymboida was supplying water for a population of 95,000 - in forty years time it is conservatively expected to supply 220,000.

Currently WaterNSW, a NSW Government agency, is investigating a proposal to extract water from the Aberfoyle River and send it south-west to the Gwydir River and Copeton Dam at an estimated cost of $1.8 billion. 

This proposal appears to be based on one of fourteen Clarence River diversion schemes 'desktop' investigated in the early 1980s - specifically a proposed dam on the Aberfoyle diverting water to either Happy Valley, Boorolong or Teatree creeks to feed the Gwydir River, or alternatively an Aberfoyle dam to feed the Gara River. 

Drawing more water from the Upper Nymboida sub-catchment will in all probability raise hydrological and environmental stress on the entire Nymboida River and, may result in water levels at the Nymboida Weir falling below the 225Ml/D low flow level pumping cutoff up to est. 80 per cent of the time.

At the time of writing the Nymboida flow was 200Ml/D.

Indeed, given that rainfall decline has been occurring in the Northern Rivers region for around five decades, any further decline in available river water to supply daily use and long-term water storage has the potential to see intractable water scarcity develop in Clarence Valley and Coffs Harbour City local government areas, as well as a sharp decline in the health of the Nymboida River.

The rest of eastern Australia needs to realise that the Clarence River system is not filled to the brim with harvestable water. The 500,000,000Ml of water annually discharging into the Pacific Ocean at the mouth of the Clarence River was a myth from the first time it was calculated.

Even Clarence Valley and Coffs Harbour City councils will have to curb their desire for continuous development, as they probably have less than twenty years of water security remaining even if the wall of Shannon Creek Dam were to be raised.

Since the Millennium Drought Clarence Valley households have been on permanent low level water use restrictions as a precautionary measure, but as this current drought** may indicate that severe drought is no longer an anomaly but an everyday fact of life, we may be facing a higher level of permanent water restrictions very soon. 

Note

* The Devils Chimney in the Aberfoyle River gorge was declared an Aboriginal Place on 8 August 1980. It is protected under under Section 90 of the NSW National Parks & Wildlife Act 1974 and can not be damaged, defaced or destroyed without the consent of the NPW Director-General. Unfortunately the NSW Berejiklian Government does allow for damage and destruction of such sites.

** The NSW DPI Clarence Valley Drought Map as of 24 September 2019:

CDI = Combined Drought Indicator. RI = Rainfall Index. SWI = Soil Water Index. PGI = Pasture Growth Index. DDI = Drought Direction Index
Data current to 24/9/2019 (AEST)

Climate Council calls Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison a colossal bullshitter

Climate Council, media release, 26 September 2019:

Morrison's Colossal Bullshit

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has taken to the global stage delivering a speech to the United Nations in New York which was long on spin and short on fact. 

“Scott Morrison’s speech and his claim that Australia was doing enough on climate change was colossal bullshit,” said the CEO of the Climate Council, Amanda McKenzie. 

“Over the winter we saw bushfires burning across Australia while the Amazon rainforest and the Arctic were on fire. A major new report shows that suburbs in Sydney, Perth and Melbourne could experience serious sea level disasters every year on our current trajectory. Meanwhile, on this government’s watch, Australia’s pollution is rising year on year. To suggest we are doing enough is ludicrous and dangerous,” she said. 

“Mr Morrison is out of touch with what is happening all around us. He is also out of touch with Australians who are really worried,” said Ms McKenzie. 

“Mr Morrison told the United Nations that our children have a right to optimism. Perhaps they would feel more optimistic if he started to take the problem of climate change seriously,” she said. 

FACT-CHECKING MORRISON’S SPEECH: 

Morrison statement: “Now, Australia is also taking real action on climate change and we are getting results. We are successfully balancing our global responsibilities with sensible and practical policies to secure our environmental and our economic future.” 

Fact-check: Australia’s Paris target is to reduce our emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. This is one of the weakest targets amongst developed countries. If other countries adopted Australia’s target the world would be heading for catastrophic climate damage. Rising emissions and worsening climate impacts are placing Australian lives, our economy and the natural environment at risk. 

Morrison statement: “Australia is responsible for just 1.3 per cent of global emissions. Australia is doing our bit on climate change and we reject any suggestion to the contrary.” 

Fact-check: Australia is the 17th largest polluter in the world, bigger than 175 countries. We are the third largest exporter of fossil fuels in the world. 

Morrison statement: “By 2020 Australia will have overachieved on our Kyoto commitments, reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 367 million tonnes more than required to meet our 2020 Kyoto target. Now there are few member countries, whether at this forum or the OECD who can make this claim.” 

Fact-check: The reason for this is that Australia’s Kyoto targets were the second weakest in the world for the first commitment period (a target to increase emissions by 8% above 1990 levels) and the weakest in the world for the second commitment period (a target to reduce emissions by just 5% below 2000 levels by 2020). It isn’t hard to overachieve on dismal targets. The reality is today our emissions are going up and up – according to the government’s own data. 

Morrison statement: “Our latest estimates show both emissions per person and the emissions intensity of the economy are at their lowest levels in 29 years.” 

Fact-check: Australia has the highest emissions per capita in the developed world. It is true that Australia’s emissions per capita have fallen more than most countries, but this is from an extraordinarily high baseline, and has largely been driven by rapid population growth. Even with this drop, we still have the highest per capita emissions in the developed world. Our emissions per capita are higher than Saudi Arabia, a country not known for its action on climate change. Ultimately, our international targets are not based on per capita emissions. 

Morrison statement: “Australia’s electricity sector is producing less emissions. In the year to March 2019, emissions from Australia’s electricity sector were 15.7% lower than the peak recorded in the year to June 2009.” 

Fact-check: This is cherry picking. There are 47 sectors in the Australian economy, almost all of them are going up. This figure of 15.7% is only correct for the electricity sector in the east coast of Australia, not all of Australia. While emissions from electricity are down, and this is good news, this is despite the best efforts of the Federal Government to undermine the renewable energy sector. Also, emissions from electricity production account for only 33% of our total emissions. Overall, there has been a rise in emissions from other sectors such as transport. Australia’s emissions are increasing and have been for five years in a row. 

Morrison statement: “…it is important to note that Australia only accounts for around 5.5 per cent of the world’s coal production.” 

Fact-check: This is spin, as it makes Australia’s contribution to climate change seem much smaller than it is. In reality, if you include Australia’s fossil fuel exports, we are the fifth largest emitter on the planet, after the US, China, EU and India. Australia is the world’s second largest coal exporter. 

Morrison statement: “We are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.” 

Fact-check: This is woefully inadequate and not aligned to what the science says is necessary to tackle climate change. Australia’s emissions have risen every year for the past five years, across almost every sector of the economy. The Government’s commitment on paper might be 26-28%, but cheating with Kyoto credits effectively reduces our emissions reduction target to just 15%. 

Morrison statement: “And our Great Barrier Reef remains one of the world’s most pristine areas of natural beauty. Feel free to visit it. Our reef is vibrant and resilient and protected under the world’s most comprehensive reef management plan.” 

Fact-check: In 2016 and 2017, the Great Barrier Reef was severely damaged through back-to-back bleaching events which killed half of all corals on the planet’s largest living structure. Australia’s current goal, if followed by other countries, would sign the death warrant of the Great Barrier Reef.

END

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants parents to muzzle their children in 2019

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has cautioned against imposing 'needless' climate anxiety on children. pic.twitter.com/JX79Q1Eg3H

— SBS News (@SBSNews) September 25, 2019

Yes, that's right. Don't let your children think about the things they are living through during their childhood - increasingly intense floods, hurricanes, drought, bushfires, storm surges, coastline erosion and native animal extinctions. 

Don't let them become politically active by marching and demanding change. Teach them to be good little "Quiet Australians".

The world is increasingly seeing Australian PM Scott Morrison as running a climate denialist government

When a country is run by rightwing, anti-science, ideological ratbags this is what happens.......

The Guardian, 25 September 2019:

Scott Morrison is increasingly seen as running a “denialist government” that is not serious about finding a global climate solution and uses “greenwash” to meet its emissions commitments, analysts and former diplomats say.

Australian observers in New York said Morrison’s failure to attend a UN climate action summit on Monday despite being in the US, and his apparent rejection of the need for Australia to do more to address its rising greenhouse gas emissions, eroded goodwill for the country on the issue.

While representatives from about 60 nations spoke at the summit, Morrison gave a keynote speech at the Chicago Institute for Global Affairs in which he challenged China to do more heavy lifting on climate change and suggested it should be treated as a “newly developed” economy rather than a developing one.

He said country representatives at the summit were dismissive of Australia’s intentions. Bill Hare, the chief executive and senior scientist of Climate Analytics and a longtime adviser to countries at climate talks, said the UN summit had been “very disappointing” as most larger polluters, including Australia, had failed to meet the secretary general Antonio Guterres’ call to increase commitments, leaving ambitious strides to smaller nations.

“Diplomatic officials from countries that I speak with see Australia as a denialist government,” he said. “It’s just accepted that’s what it is. It is seen as doing its own promotion of coal and natural gas against the science.”

Hare said Morrison’s suggestion China should be doing more on climate, and be treated similarly to the most developed countries, while Australia’s emissions continued to increase year-on-year was a “ridiculous fake argument”.

He said China, the world’s most populous country and biggest annual polluter, was not doing anywhere near enough to tackle the crisis, but was doing more than Australia on many measures. It had national policies in a number of areas – boosting renewable energy, energy efficiency, electric vehicles and efficiency in industry – where Australia did not.

“Is that having enough of an effect in China? No. But will China peak its emissions by the end of the 2020s? Yes,” Hare said.

“Will Australia? There is no evidence that Australia will peak its emissions as far as I’ve seen in any projections that have been published.”.....

A report backed by the world’s major climate science bodies released on the eve of the summit found current plans would lead to a rise in average global temperatures of between 2.9C and 3.4C by 2100, a shift likely to bring catastrophic change across the globe......

Scott Morrison & Co exceed their previous level of destructive behaviour in the face of climate change

David Rowe, 14 September 2019

By the early hours of Tuesday 24 September 2019 coal-burning power stations in eastern Australian mainland states had released over 99 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions into the air this year alone.

Sadly, this comes as no surprise as total all-sector emissions have been steadily rising since the 2013 federal election. Until by September 2016 they had reached 527.2Mt of CO2-e, by September 2017 533.3Mt of CO2-e, by March 2018 535.8Mt of CO2-e, by September 2018 536Mt of CO2-e and by end of March 2019 national greenhouse gas emissions stood at 538.9Mt of CO2-e.

Yet the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government is still continuing to carve a destructive path towards increasing the impacts of climate change for every person living in Australia.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 22 September 2019, excerpt:

As delegates of the United Nations climate change summit - which Mr Morrison has snubbed - prepare to discuss emission reduction efforts this week, briefing notes obtained under Freedom of Information laws detail the emphasis placed on coal in the government's diplomatic relations.

Departmental briefing notes provided to Resources Minister Matt Canavan ahead of his official visit to Singapore and India last month canvass the potential to expand Australia's coal exports into Bangladesh - a nation that is among the most vulnerable to the effects of global warning.

The government is seeking to grow its coal exports in overseas markets as it looks to buttress the economic fallout from a deteriorating relationship with China.

Australian Conservation Foundation climate change campaigner Christian Slattery said Australia was "trashing its international reputation because of its addiction to polluting coal''.

“As major importers of Australian coal move to transition to cleaner forms of energy, the Morrison government is doing the coal industry’s bidding, trying to secure new markets," Mr Slattery said.....

Foreign Minister Marise Payne will front the UN climate change summit this week, but will not address delegates - as Australia is among a group of coal-supporting economies singled out as not getting a spot on the list of 63 speakers.

Mr Morrison's snub comes despite him being in the United States on an official visit.

In an email to the Prime Minister ahead of his official visit to Vietnam last month, bureaucrats advise him to push hard for an expansion of Australia's coal exports to the nation, which represented a "growth market".

"We strongly recommend a focus on coal exports to Vietnam as part of the Prime Minister’s planned visit," the email said.

"There is potential for growth in exports to Vietnam to partially mitigate declining exports elsewhere, notably China."

The briefing said coal exports from Australia to Vietnam had more than doubled since the 2017-18 financial year, up from 4,286,390 tonnes or approximately $750 million in value.

A spokeswoman for the Prime Minister said in a statement that the government "promotes all of Australian energy exports in our trade discussions - coal, gas and renewables".

"These exports underpin the Australian economy, delivering billions in revenue to support essential services and support thousands of jobs in regional Australia."

ACF's Mr Slattery said the government "seems intent on selling a 20th century technology to a 21st century world and doing a great deal more climate damage while they are at it".

“Australia’s reported blocking by the UN Secretary-General from speaking at the special climate summit in New York is nothing short of an international embarrassment for a wealthy and developed country that prides itself on being a good international citizen," he said.

Rescuing flying foxes across Northern NSW & Southern Queensland in the current drought

The Daily Examiner, 23 September 2019, p.10:

As WIRES becomes inundated with sick and starving bats, residents are being urged to give them a helping hand.

A bat starvation event is occurring across Northern NSW and Southern Queensland as WIRES works hard to nurse sick and starving back into health.

WIRES officer Linda Harrison said she had been receiving a large number of flying foxes, particularly juveniles, which were severely undernourished.

The lack of blossoms due to a combination of worsening drought conditions and continued destruction of the natural habitat went some way to explain the event.

“I have had them come in near dead. They are just starving, there is just no food out there for them,” she said.

“A big part of that is the amount of clearing that has been done – 200 years ago this would not have affected them near as much as it what it is now because there would have been more trees out there.”

Ms Harrison said the lack of blossoms meant the bats were starting to look for alternative food sources and were increasingly being found in backyards and trees lower to the ground.

“They are flying in and finding a food source and because they are just so worn out they are staying where they are,” she said.

“People are finding them in their backyards because they don’t have the energy to go anywhere.

“They do have a fairly specific diet but at the moment they are eating anything.”

Ms Harrison said while the bats should be left alone, there were a few things people could do to give them a helping hand, including putting fruit out on string for the bats to have a feed.

“As a rule we don’t usually encourage people to feed them but at the moment they are eating anything and we are doing what we can to keep them alive,” she said.

“Cut up some soft fruit or hang some fruit on bits of rope.”

Despite some rainfall in the last week, Ms Harrison said she was expecting the problems to continue and flying foxes were not the only animals having a hard time.

“I think I am in for a long couple of months, this is going to go on for a while. I think we are in for a long summer.”

“You can see there are more kangaroos coming into people’s yards around South Grafton, they are just coming in for fresh grass.”

WIRES rescue line: 1300094737.