Cartoons of the Week

Peter Broelman

David Rowe

Cathy Wilcox

 

Nationals Senator Matt Canavan from Yeppoon near Rockhampton shows his distasteful and offensive political persona to the world

From 25 January 2020 when the national confirmed cases count began in Australia to 15 June 2021 (the day before the Delta Variant outbreak began) the COVID-19 pandemic had infected 30,274 individuals, At that point 910 people or 3 per cent of all those infected had died.

www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/06/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-15-june-2021.pdf

New South Wales was in Day 51 of the Delta Variant Outbreak with 4,610 people having been infected between 16 June to 5 August 2021 and 22 people dead as a result, when The Financial Review published the results of sums done on the back of an envelope by former & short-lived Executive at KPMG, former & short-lived Director at Productivity Commission, former Chief of Staff to Barnaby Joyce & a current Nationals Senator for Qld, Matt Canavan (left).

In this opinion piece Canavan states that; Each life saved by the Sydney lockdown costs $330 million. It’s an unjustifiable expense that imposes large and disproportionate burdens on small business and the less well off. [my yellow highlighting]

The reason for this "Sydney lockdown" is hard to ignore. On 16 June 2021 the NSW SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Outbreak began with 2 daily cases of local community transmission reported. On 13 July NSW Health reported 97 daily cases of community transmission and at the end of the month that number had risen to 239 cases of community transmission reported in the last 24 hours. On 5 August there were 291 daily cases of community transmission reported and the cumulative number of confirmed locally acquired COVID-19 infections had risen by 4,610 people since the outbreak began, including 22 who had died from this variant infection. However, Canavan does his best to ignore those particular numbers. 

Leaving his dodgy costings aside, Canavan appears to firmly believe Scott Morrison’s position that the best way forward to ‘open up’ the economy and he wants us all to learn to live with the SARS-CoV-2 virus despite low vaccination rates.

Or as he expressed himself on 5 August; We should end the lockdowns and replace them with sensible social distancing requirements and testing and tracing.

All his latest opinion piece proves is that Canavan did not understand the implications of what little he actually read in The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity modelling report.

It was made very clear that the report assigns a Transmission Potential (TP) to the Delta Variant of 3.6. It is also observed in its pages that the ability to reduce this variant’s TP to less than 1 needs both to contain community transmission in the current suppression phase (A) and to prevent cases from exceeding health sector capacity in phase B. Currently personal risk reduction behaviours and constraints on social mixing known as Public Health and Social Measures (PHSM) are the levers employed to manage TP in response to incursions and outbreaks [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, pp. 7, 10].

However, the report also points out that in the four scenarios with only baseline levels of social and behavioural restrictions in place (ie minimal density/capacity restrictions), epidemic growth is still expected at the yet to be reached 50%, 60%, 70% and 80% national vaccine coverage. In these scenarios reduced effectiveness of the public health ‘test, trace, isolate, quarantine’ (TTIQ) response is anticipated due to high caseloads [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, p.10].

In all four vaccination scenarios coming out of lockdown and having only baseline density/capacity restrictions operating across the population, leaves Australia still facing a predominately Delta Variant epidemic. One where the Transmission Potential is likely to be a problematic 2.0, due in part to fading of vaccine efficacy in vaccinated individuals and the need to rollout a national vaccine booster program – which on past performance will possibly be as chaotic as the original vaccine rollout.

The vacillating Morrison Government's two most favoured vaccination coverage scenarios now appear to be the 70% and 80% of all adults. These graphs show epidemic growth to 180 days given transition to Phase B leading to established community transmission:

Epidemic growth to 180 days given transition to Phase B leading to established community transmission for the threshold coverage targets of 70 and 80%, with vaccine allocation according to the ‘All adults’ strategy  [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, p.14]

This is not helping Australia’s economy get back on its feet in the foreseeable future. Neither is it likely to reduce the real cost to federal and state governments or to society generally of this COVID-19 global pandemic.

The Australian Treasury has costed nationally applied Strict public health order restrictions to cost $3.2 billon a week. Mild nationally applied restrictions are costed at $2.35 billion a week, Low restrictions at $0.65 billion and Baseline at $0.1 billion a week.

Treasury’s financial analysis of the four vaccination scenarios in the Doherty Institute modelling report appears somewhat superficial  - given it refused to model the economic implications of predicted overstretched test, trace and quarantine systems in order to produce these optimistic key findings for the National Cabinet:

• Continuing to minimise the number of COVID-19 cases, by taking early and strong action in response to outbreaks of the Delta variant, is consistently more cost effective than allowing higher levels of community transmission, which ultimately requires longer and more costly lockdowns.

• As vaccination rates rise, significantly less lockdowns and other restrictions will be required to continue to minimise cases of COVID-19, reducing the economic cost of managing the virus.

• Moderate or strict lockdowns are still expected to be necessary to continue minimising outbreaks until Australia reaches 70 per cent vaccination rates for Australian adults (16+). As a result, the costs of managing COVID-19 will remain high.

• At 50 per cent vaccination rates, and based on the assumptions outlined in this paper, the direct economic cost of minimising cases is estimated to be around $570m per week. At 60 per cent, the estimated cost remains high, but falls to around $430m per week.

• Once 70 per cent of Australian adults (16+) are vaccinated, and assuming the spread of COVID-19 is minimised, it is expected that outbreaks can be contained using only low level restrictions, with lockdowns unlikely to be necessary. This will significantly reduce the expected economic cost of COVID-19 management to around $200m per week.

• At 80 per cent vaccination rates, these direct economic costs are expected to fall further still, to around $140m per week, and costs are lower under all scenarios.

• Treasury has not modelled the economic costs of a severe and widespread outbreak that breaches Australia’s health system capacity. It is expected that such a situation would carry very significant economic costs. International experience indicates that it would lead to significant behavioural changes regardless of the level of official restrictions, and longer outbreaks. [my yellow highlighting]

From 25 January 2020 to 5 August 2021 the national percentage of confirmed COVID-19 deaths was 2.63 per cent of the infected population or 927 people. During that same period the NSW percentage of confirmed COVID-19 deaths was 0.77 per cent of the infected state population or 79 people.

Senator Canavan can play with all these numbers all he likes, it doesn’t make his devaluing of potential lives saved and actual lives lost any less distasteful nor make his ‘politiking’ any less offensive.

State of Play COVID-19 Pandemic: NSW Delta Variant Outbreak reached Day 31 today Friday, 16 July 2021 and as yet there is no end in sight

 

NSW Health, COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics,16 July 2021:

NSW recorded 97 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

Of these locally acquired cases, 63 are linked to a known case or cluster – 49 are household contacts and 14 are close contacts – and the source of infection for 34 cases remains under investigation.

Forty-six cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 17 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Twenty-nine cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of five cases remains under investigation.

One new overseas-acquired case was recorded in the same period. The total number of cases in NSW since the beginning of the pandemic is now 6,527.

There have been 1,026 locally acquired cases reported since 16 June 2021, when the first case in the Bondi cluster was reported. 

There are currently 75 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 18 people in intensive care, five of whom require ventilation.

There were 77,587 tests reported to 8pm last night, compared with the previous day’s total of 58,299.

NSW Health administered a record 22,568 COVID-19 vaccines in the 24 hours to 8pm last night, including 7,392 at the vaccination centre at Sydney Olympic Park.

The total number of vaccines administered in NSW is now 2,907,677 with 1,135,164 doses administered by NSW Health to 8pm last night and 1,772,513 administered by the GP network and other providers to 11.59pm on Wednesday 14 July…..

Of the 97 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 67 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 14 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, nine are from Western Sydney LHD, five are from Sydney LHD, one is from Northern Sydney LHD and one is from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD…… [my yellow highlighting]

As of 8pm 15 July 2021 – Day 30 of the Delta variant outbreak - only est. 35.57% of the total NSW resident population have received one or more doses of COVID-19 vaccine.

Because of the highly infectious nature of the Delta variant and the fact that the majority of COVID-19 cases sequenced in the week leading up to 3 July 2021 were identified as the Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1) and Delta/Kappa (B.1.617) variants, it is extremely important that every person within NSW state boundaries obey all public health orders.

UPDATE

NSW Health, media release, excerpt, 17 July 2021:

NSW recorded 111 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

Of these locally acquired cases, 59 are linked to a known case or cluster – 47 are household contacts and 12 are close contacts – and the source of infection for 52 cases remains under investigation.

Sixty-nine cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and ten cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Twenty-nine cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of three cases remains under investigation.

Six new overseas-acquired cases were recorded in the same period. The total number of cases in NSW since the beginning of the pandemic is now 6,644.

Sadly, a man in his late-80s from south-eastern Sydney died yesterday. NSW Health extends its sincere sympathies to his family.

There have been 1,137 locally acquired cases reported since 16 June 2021, when the first case in the Bondi cluster was reported.

There are currently 75 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 18 people in intensive care, six of whom require ventilation.

There were a record 81,970 COVID-19 tests reported to 8pm last night, compared with the previous day's total of 77,587…… [my yellow highlighting]

Restrictions to further limit the spread of the COVID-19 Delta strain, effective from 11:59pm Saturday 17 July 2021, can be found here:

https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/restrictions-to-further-limit-spread-of-covid-19-delta-strain

Cartoons of the Week

 

Cathy Wilcox

David Pope

 

Mercury, 30 June 2021

NSW Nationals MP Chris Gulaptis boasts of his betrayal of his electorate

Clarence Valley Independent, 20 October 2020:

Koalas will have more protection but farmers and foresters won’t be saddled with unreasonable red tape following the introduction of a much improved State Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP) into State Parliament last Thursday (October 15), according to Clarence Nationals MP Chris Gulaptis.

“The Local Land Services Amendment Bill 2020” is a vast improvement on what was proposed initially and a win not just for the Nationals, but also for farmers, the timber industry and indeed koalas,” Mr Gulaptis said.

“I was prepared to walk away from the Government over the original Liberal Party plan, but this is a terrific compromise secured by the Nationals in NSW Government, in which rural industries are protected but property developers will be banned from disturbing koala habitat.

“As I said before, the red tape stops at the farm gate and that is how it should be,” Mr Gulaptis concluded.

This is a précis the final 16 October 2020 version of the amended NSW SEPP, State Environmental Planning Policy (Koala Habitat Protection) 2019:

• Retains its new commencement date of 1 March 2020;

• Doesn’t apply to - (b) land dedicated under the Forestry Act 2012 as State forest or a flora reserve. An exemption also contained in the previous 3 September 2020 version of this SEPP;

• Only applies to 83 named local government areas out of a total of 128 local government areas and to - (a) in the koala management area specified in Schedule 1 opposite the local government area, or (b) if more than 1 koala management area is specified, in each of those koala management areas. Clauses also included in the previous version of this SEPP;

• Only applies to land classified as core koala habitat which is over 1 hectare in size. This applied to land in the previous version of the SEPP as well;

• Doesn’t apply to any land on which a development application has already been lodged, as was the case under the previous version of this SEPP;

• Tightens the definition of core koala habitat so that a higher level of proof is required at this clause - (a) an area of land which has been assessed by a suitably qualified and experienced person in accordance with the Guideline as being highly suitable koala habitat and where koalas are recorded as being present at the time of assessment of the land as highly suitable koala habitat;

• Made more land exempt from its provisions - (c) land on which biodiversity certification has been conferred, and is in force, under Part 8 of the Biodiversity Conservation Act 2016;

• Allows larger buildings or buildings on a different part of a post-bushfire residential lot by repealing - (b) the replacement dwelling house is within the existing building footprint;

• Removes this provision protecting koala habitat identified by a particular form of mapping - (i) is not identified on the Koala Development Application Map.

It should be noted that at no time did the 3 September 2020 version of this SEPP ever apply to agricultural land broadly. The existing rules for routine farming activity and rural land clearing did not change and, if farmers had koala habitat on their land they could still apply and get approval to clear koala habitat under existing land clearing laws.

Provisions in Local Land Services Amendment (Miscellaneous) Bill 2020 have little or nothing to do with protecting koalas or farmers with koalas on their land - despite the Nationals MP for Clarence Chris Gulaptis attempting to marry the Koala Habitation Protection SEPP and this Land Services amendment in the public's mind.

What the Local Land Services Amendment (Miscellaneous) Bill 2020 actually does is remove all local government areas from the protection of State Environmental Planning Policy (Koala Habitat Protection) 2019 with the exception of just five local government areas - Ballina, Coffs Harbour City, Kempsey, Lismore and Port Stephens.

The NSW Nationals wanted the bill to go forward using the Koala Habitat Protection SEPP as the excuse masking its real intent - to establish as law those clauses that (i) allow the commercial logging of native trees to continue unimpeded on private land by circumventing a government review of the private forestry system and (ii) to allow future clearing of native timber on farmland without the need for authorisation under other state legislation, including the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 and Biodiversity Conservation Act 2016 .

On 20 October 2020 the NSW Parliament’s Legislation Review Committee stated in part of the impending legislation of which Gulaptis now so proudly boasts:

The [Land Services] Bill seeks to remove several requirements for land owners to obtain development consent under Parts 4 and 5 of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (the EPA Act). In doing so, the Committee notes that the Bill would remove local councils' ability to assess development applications, engage with relevant neighbour and community stakeholders, and make recommendations regarding the proposed development changes. It may thereby impact on the rights of these stakeholders to participate in such processes and be consulted about issues that may affect them…... [my yellow highlighting]

Chris Gulaptis is boasting of bad law and misrepresenting exactly what is contained in the new legislation to residents and voters in his electorate.

This former surveyor, property developer and mining operations consultant voted for the extinction of a unique species, the Australian Koala, and for virtually unconstrained land clearance which will see many more native species at threat of extinction in New South Wales.