Tuesday 24 December 2019

Australian Climate Emergency in December 2019: leadership failure


Geoscience Australia, satellite mapping of hotspots, 18 December 2019






On the evening of Sunday 15 December 2019 Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison left the country unannounced.

When his absence was noticed the prime minister's office confirmed he was taking a 'personal' holiday with his family for a few days, at first refused to confirm this holiday was overseas and flat out denied it was being taken in Hawaii, USA.

Turns out the holiday was in Hawaii and, as Australia burned, he was smiling happily for a group photo on a beach flashing the handsign for 'hanging loose'.

Let me make this clear. This was during a time forests were burning, untold native animals were perishing, more homes were destroyed, another NSW state emergency was declared and two firefighters were killed as well as two in the same NSWRFS crew injured - but Morrison was having his oh-so-jolly, carefree jaunt in the balmy tropics.

https://twitter.com/Ben_Downie/status/1207569984857096192, 19 December 2019

Once Morrison realised he had been discovered he issued a half-hearted brief apology; "I deeply regret any offence caused to any of the many Australians affected by the terrible bushfires by my taking leave with family at this time"

Saying he would return to Australia as soon as it could be arranged.

Morrison's overseas holiday was for 8 nights & 7 days planned to end on 23 December 2019 - meaning it ended less than two full days earlier than planned.


Since returning to Australia Morrison has been conducting a public relations blitz portraying himself as a man just trying to do the right thing by his kids, whom he had already taken on holiday to Shoalhaven in NSW (January 2019) and Fiji (June 2019) before taking them to Hawaii this month.

He has also doubled down on false claims that Australia was meeting it greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and told the general public that the current fire season was nothing to panic about, that the rural fire service volunteers were well resourced and supported and there was no need for additional responses to the climate emergency/climate change impacts.

A message which simply increased the level of anger shown towards him on social media.

A sobering interview from the UN Climate Change Conference COP 25 in December 2019


This is a sobering interview from the UN Climate Change Conference COP 25 in Madrid (2-13 December 2019).

https://youtu.be/oa13KrOvE2s

Dr. Peter Carter founded the Climate Emergency Institute. He served as an expert reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change’s fifth climate change assessment in 2014. 


According to Dr. Carter the COP25 conference, like UN climate change conferences before it, are designed to fail.

Since 2013 Australia has been on a path that ensures such failure.

Under Scott Morrison's prime ministership the federal government's willingness to do the bidding of the fossil fuel industry at these conferences is becoming quite noticeable.

The Guardian, 10 December 2018:

As four of the world’s largest oil and gas producers blocked UN climate talks from “welcoming” a key scientific report on global warming, Australia’s silence during a key debate is being viewed as tacit support for the four oil allies: the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait.

The end of the first week of the UN climate talks – known as COP24 – in Katowice, Poland, has been mired by protracted debate over whether the conference should “welcome” or “note” a key report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The IPCC’s 1.5 degrees report, released in October, warned the world would have to cut greenhouse gas emissions by about 45% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5C and potentially avoid some of the worst effects of climate change, including a dramatically increased risk of drought, flood, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.

BBC News, 12 December 2019:

According to the UN, 84 countries have promised to enhance their national plans by the end of next year. Some 73 have said they will set a long-term target of net zero by the middle of the century. In a rare move, negotiators from the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) pointed the finger of blame at countries including Australia, the United States, Canada, Russia, India, China and Brazil. They had failed to submit revised plans that would help the world keep the rise in global temperatures under 1.5C this century.

Courier Mail, 14 December 2019:

Australia has come under fire for resisting proposed future emissions targets and changes to carbon markets.

Escalating tensions, Costa Rica’s environment and energy minister Carlos Manuel RodrĂ­guez outright blamed “Australia, Brazil and the US” for the stalemate.


Monday 23 December 2019

IMPEACHMENT OF A U.S. PRESIDENT: Dear Madam Speaker, Sincerely yours, Donald J. Trump


Nineteen politicians/public officials were impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Donald J. Trump became the twentieth individual and the third president to be referred to the Senate.

All but one of these nineteen had a Senate trial. Seven were acquitted, eight found guilty, with another four jumping ship through pre-emptive resignation and jurisdiction lapsing in the matter of another.

Of the two presidents in this list, Andrew Johnson and William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton - both were acquitted.

Richard Milhous Nixon is not on this list as he was the only U.S. president to resign in order to avoid a formal Senate trial.

Impeachment charges ranged from: conspiring to assist in Great Britain’s attempt to seize Spanish-controlled territories; waging war against the U.S. Government; sexual assault, obstructing and impeding an official proceeding; making false and misleading statements; criminal disregard for the office and accepting payments in exchange for making official appointments; income tax evasion; abuse of contempt power and other misuses of office; and of remaining on the bench following criminal conviction; through to charges of intoxication on the bench.

On 19 December 2019 the House of Representatives impeached Trump 
for "high crimes and misdemeanors" on a 230 to 197 vote regarding "abuse of power" and a 229 to 198 vote regarding "obstruction of Congress".

One Democrat and two Republicans did not participate in either vote and one Democrat declared neutrality with a Present declaration.

The day before the vote Trump wrote to Speaker Nancy Pelosi.......
https://www.scribd.com/document/440211861/President-Donald-Trump-s-letter-to-Speaker-of-the-House-Nancy-Pelosi

After the impeachment vote Trump tweeted:


Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison loses control of climate change and ecomomic narratives - bolts for a secret overseas location in December 2019


Australian Labor Party leader Anthony Albanese met with the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action (ELCA) group of 29 former emergency services chiefs. 

This is the same group that Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison pointedly refused to meet in the months leading up to the current national climate emergency and still refuses to meet.

As widespread bushfire destruction grows like a cancer across the landscape, Morrison displayed a characteristic that is becoming a feature of his prime ministership - he bolted for cover without a word of warning on the evening of 15 December 2019. 

This time at some undisclosed overseas 'holiday' destination.

On that evening according to the NSW Rural Fire ServiceAt 11:30pm, more than 2,000 personnel continue work on the 108 bush and grass fires burning across NSW, with 57 not yet contained. One fire remains at Emergency Warning and a further two fires at the Watch and Act alert level.

On the evening Morrison slunk out of Australia, fires were also burning in Western Australia,South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Queensland, according to official Twitter feeds of all five state firefighting services.

Statement by ELCA published in the Echo NetDaily, 17 December 2019:

Greg Mullins, former Commissioner, Fire & Rescue NSW, said the group are deeply concerned with the unprecedented scale and ferocity of the current bushfire crisis. ‘Summer has barely begun but record numbers of homes have been lost in Queensland and NSW, major cities have been shrouded in smoke and destructive fires are burning across Australia.
‘Climate change is the key driver to the worsening conditions but the Federal Government remains in denial as far as credible action on emissions goes......
On behalf of the group Mr Mullins said they feel a duty to fill Canberra’s leadership vacuum on the fires and will call our own national emergency summit after the current bushfire season to bring together a range of interested parties to look at how we can adapt to a far more dangerous environment. ‘The safety and well-being of communities, firefighters, and wildlife is on the line.
‘Our coalition of concerned leaders is growing, and we are not going away until we see action that matches the scale and urgency of the climate emergency and gives some hope for future generations,’ he said.
ELCA is releasing in full the list of recommendations it provided to Minister David Littleproud and Minister Angus Taylor in early December.....

It is also worth noting that Morrison left the country the evening before the negative MYEFO 2019 was released which clearly showed the national economy was a long way from being robust under his leadership.

Morrison was clearly enjoying himself when discovered on social media at Waikiki Beach in Hawaii.....
However his mood had obviously changed when public anger caused him to announce he was returning to Australia two days earlier than planned.....
Morrison's Hawaiian jaunt was his third holiday in 2019.

Sunday 22 December 2019

Google to pay $481.5m in win for Australian Tax Office bringing total collected from IT giants to $1.25 billion


The Guardian, 18 December 2019:

The search engine giant Google has agreed to pay $481.5m to the Australian Tax Office in a major win for the agency in its battle to force big technology companies to pay tax in Australia.
The settlement, which covers a decade’s worth of tax between 2008 and 2018, will also help bolster a federal budget surplus that has been undermined by weak economic growth and the collapse of the Morrison government’s robodebt scheme.
It follows a lengthy campaign to get multinationals, especially technology and resources giants, to pay tax in Australia that was launched in 2015 by the then treasurer, Joe Hockey, and spearheaded by the tax commissioner, Chris Jordan.
Moves included more audits of tech and resources companies through a special ATO taskforce and introducing a suite of laws designed to force tech companies to book sales made in Australia locally, rather than running them through a tax haven such as Singapore or Ireland.
Deputy commissioner Mark Konza, who has overseen much of the ATO’s work dealing with tax-shy multinationals, said the settlement was “another great outcome for the Australian tax system”.

The ATO said Google’s settlement, together with others made by companies including Microsoft, Apple and Facebook, brought the total extra amount of cash collected from ecommerce industry players to $1.25bn.....

Unfortunately as Australia's federal budget blackhole is currently $2.1 billion and will reach a cumulative total of at least $7 billion by June 2021, the back taxes paid to date by these multinational corporations will be only a slight, passing relief for the national economy.

FIGHTING BACK AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE DENIALISM: a hit, a palpable hit!


Putting the fallacious argument against lowering Australia's greenhouse gas emissions into perspective.......

The Age, letter to the editor,17 December 2019, p.20:


Friday 20 December 2019

Clarence Valley regional economy tops $2.13 billion in 2018-19


Clarence Valley Independent, 18 December 2019:




Clarence Valley is outperforming the rest of regional NSW, according to the latest gross regional product figures for the year ending June 30, 2019.
“Gross regional product (GRP) is the equivalent of gross domestic product (GDP), but for a smaller area,” the .idcommunity demographic resources update states on Clarence Valley Council’s (CVC) website.
The CVC local government area’s GRP was $2,134m as of June 30, 2019.
The valley’s GRP grew by 3.1 per cent, which followed 1.3 per cent growth in 2018; whereas regional areas of NSW, overall, went backwards by 0.5 percent in both 2018 and 2019 – another national study, released this week by SGS Economics and Planning, rates GRP for the NSW regions as falling by 0.3 per cent......
In 2019 there were 18, 854 jobs in the valley, up by 3.1 per cent on 2018’s 18,288 jobs.
However, it is likely that the infrastructure builds in the valley have inflated that figure.....
Read the full article here.

The 2019-20 financial year may be a different story come end of June 2020, as bushfires have devastated much of the Clarence Valley's natural assets which attract a high number of visitors to the region and prolonged drought has bitten deeply, with the entire local government area impacted by drought & just over 88 per cent by intense drought as the year ends.

Facebook Inc. agrees to pay News Corp millions annually for news service content



Australian Newspaper History Group Newsletter, No 105, December 2019, p.6:

105.2.1 Facebook’s news service

The launch of Facebook’s news service is a “powerful precedent that will echo around editorial departments”, News Corp chief executive Robert Thomson has declared (Australian, 28 October 2019). Thomson said it had been a difficult decade for journalism, but Facebook’s service was an important step. He said, “Great journalism will only be sustainable at scale if there is a fundamental change to the digital ecosystem. This announcement is an important step on the road.”

News Corp’s deal with Facebook — which covers the New York Post and Dow Jones publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch and Barron’s — will generate licence fees reaching into the double-digit millions of dollars a year, people familiar with the agreement said. “Of itself, it begins to change the terms of trade for quality journalism, both in establishing the principle of payment, and in allowing news organisations a clearer opportunity to generate advertising revenue on their terms,” Thomson said. He has led a global battle against Facebook and Google over issues including opaque algorithms, digital advertising dominance and a failure to pay for journalists’ work.....

Facebook’s news service launched with a test audience of 200,000 US users, but the platform plans to roll it out beyond the US early next year. A date for launch in Australia has not been announced.

Thursday 19 December 2019

Level 1 water restrictions now in place for Clarence Valley


As of Friday 13 December 2019 Shannon Creek Dam had fallen to 82.3 % of its total capacity.

So from 16 December 2019 Level 1 water restrictions apply in addition to existing permanent water conservation measures.

So:
  • No outside garden watering between 9am and 4pm
  • No sprinklers or unattended hoses
  • Water efficient drip or spray systems – 15 minutes every 2 days*
  • Hand held hoses - 1 hour every 2 days*
  • No restriction on commercial/industrial use
* If your house address is an even number you can water on even numbered days. If your house address is an odd number you can water on odd numbered days.

NOTE: Breaching water restrictions is an offence under Section 637 of the Local Government Act.  Action may be undertaken against consumers who are detected breaching water restrictions in accordance with Council’s Enforcement Policy. Fines can apply to such breaches.

Fightback against Australian Morrison Government's attempt to scuttle effective global climate change action


The Morrison Coalition Government's use of 'carbon credits' as an accounting trick to cover failure to reduce Australian greenhouse gas emissions since 2014 will put the international goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C out of reach - thus plunging the world into catastrophic climate change - is being resisted by thirty-one other sovereign nations.


Logo

Media Release, 14 December 2019:
Leading countries set benchmark for carbon markets with San Jose Principles
MADRID – As UN climate talks in Madrid near its closing, a group of leading countries are working together to secure an ambitious outcome is delivered on the Article 6 negotiations. 
To make that happen, they have agreed on a set of principles, known as the San Jose Principles for High Ambition and Integrity in International Carbon Markets, that constitute the basis upon which a fair and robust carbon market should be built.
Known as the Unconventional Group, these countries (see the list below) have been working since the Pre-COP25 in San JosĂ©, Costa Rica, to increase the level of ambition in talks dealing with carbon markets. 
The group presented the Chilean COP Presidency a set of principles (see attached) that outline what a successful outcome could look like in this Article, in the hope that this will support the Presidency’s efforts in creating an ambitious outcome.
Parties include (updated December 14, 11:45pm, CET)
  1. Costa Rica
  2. Switzerland
  3. Belize
  4. Colombia
  5. Paraguay
  6. PerĂş
  7. Marshall Islands
  8. Vanuatu
  9. Luxembourg
  10. Cook Islands
  11. Germany
  12. Sweden
  13. Denmark
  14. Austria
  15. Grenada
  16. Estonia
  17. New Zealand
  18. Spain
  19. Ireland
  20. Latvia
  21. The Netherlands
  22. Norway
  23. Slovenia
  24. Belgium
  25. Fiji
  26. Portugal
  27. France
  28. United Kingdom
  29. Italy
  30. Finland
  31. Trinidad and Tobago
Quotes from country representatives
Carlos Manuel Rodriguez, Minister of Environment and Energy of Costa Rica, said, “This is a definition of success on Article 6. Anything below these San Jose principles won’t create a fair and robust carbon market. The diverse group of countries supporting these principles know we need a just outcome to keep the 1.5C target within reach. The principles keep the door open for 1.5C, while ensuring the highest possible ambition in mitigation and adaptation. We encourage other parties to join our efforts in creating a basis upon which a fair and robust carbon market should be built”
Franz Perrez, Head of Delegation of Switzerland, said, “If markets are to increase ambition, the rules have to be as robust as the San Jose Principles”
Ambassador Janine Felson of Belize said, “An ambitious Article 6 outcome will create a new architecture for markets that moves beyond zero-sum offsetting approaches to accelerate the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is a key principle for members of my group and that is why these San Jose Principles are important”
Ricardo Lozano, Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development of Colombia, said “Colombia, as a highly vulnerable country that has supported an effective implementation of the Paris Agreement will apply these environmental San Jose Principles to guide its participation in the carbon market and ensure our efforts will help to build the basis for a robust system that promotes the highest climate ambition”
Svenja Schulze, Minister for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety of Germany, said, “Art. 6 can be a very important part of implementing the Paris Agreement but it must be designed to increase ambition. The San JosĂ© Principles lay out the essence of a robust mechanism which ensures environmental integrity”
Isabella Lövin, Minister for Environment and Climate, and Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden, said, “The San Jose Principles provide an important foundation for the architecture of Article 6. Robust accounting that ensures environmental integrity and avoids double counting is key for Article 6 to deliver on climate mitigation and raising ambition.”
Dan Jørgensen, Minister for Climate, Energy and Utilities, Denmark, said, “Denmark supports the San JosĂ© principles. The world is counting on us to secure a robust system that fosters ambition”
Hon. James Shaw, Minister for Climate Change, New Zealand, said, “If we are to prevent the climate crisis, it is critically important for countries to work to the highest possible standards. This is why New Zealand supports the San Jose Principles on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement”
Eric Wiebes, Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy of the Netherlands said, “If we want real emission reductions, we should be absolutely firm on the environmental integrity of the multilateral system. Without proper accounting, our climate action will be meaningless. We can show flexibility on certain issues, but not on the San Jose Principles for international carbon markets.”
Minister Alain Maron, Minister of  the Government of the Brussels-Capital Region, responsible for Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Participatory Democracy of Belgium, said, “We need robust and comprehensive rules for Article 6 so that markets can help drive ambition towards the PA goals and so that its environmental integrity and the SDGs are protected. We also need such rules to facilitate a global level playing field and to provide a signal of trust to all market actors.”
Ola Elvestuen, Norwegian Minister of Climate and Environment, said, “We all need to increase ambition. Carbon markets can have an important role for us to do more together. If we follow the San Jose Principles we are promoting robust markets with environmental integrity.”
Mrs. Camille Robinson-Regis, Hon. Minister of Planning and Development of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, said,"The importance of environmental integrity and overall mitigation are essential and critical elements of the market rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The market must be governed by robust rules to inspire the confidence of the private sector  and state and non state entities to participate fully and so ensure that operational and effective market mechanism under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. To do otherwise would undermine the utility of the market mechanism to contribute to the achievement of the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Trinidad and Tobago supports such a robust system of rules.”

San Jose Principles for High Ambition and Integrity in International Carbon Markets
At the Pre-COP, a large number of participants shared their expectations on what is needed to deliver a robust and ambitious outcome for Article 6. 

They were of the view that the implementation of the Paris Agreement must be firmly grounded in what the best available science tells us is necessary to deliver on the long-term temperature goal of the Agreement: the highest possible ambition in mitigation and adaptation.
As the end of the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol approaches, there is an urgent need for clarity with regard to the future international framework for use of market-based approaches towards international climate goals.
They expressed support to the COP presidency, and to work together with others to secure an ambitious outcome in Madrid to deliver the following principles, through an Article 6 rule book that at minimum:
  • Ensures environmental integrity and enables the highest possible mitigation ambition
  • Delivers an overall mitigation in global emissions, moving beyond zero-sum offsetting approaches to help accelerate the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions
  • Prohibits the use of pre-2020 units, Kyoto units and allowances, and any underlying reductions toward Paris Agreement and other international goals
  • Ensures that double counting is avoided and that all use of markets toward international climate goals is subject to corresponding adjustments.
  • Avoids locking in levels of emissions, technologies or carbon-intensive practices incompatible with the achievement of the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal.
  • Applies allocation methodologies and baseline methodologies that support domestic NDC achievement and contribute to achievement of the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal
  • Uses CO2-equivalence in reporting and accounting for emissions and removals, fully applying the principles of transparency, accuracy, consistency, comparability and completeness
  • Uses centrally and publicly accessible infrastructure and systems to collect, track, and share the information necessary for robust and transparent accounting
  • Ensures incentives to progression and supports all Parties in moving toward economy-wide emission targets.
  • Contributes to quantifiable and predictable financial resources to be used by developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation
  • Recognizes the importance of capacity building to enable the widest possible participation by Parties under Article 6
They further recognize the importance of Article 6.8 in supporting Parties in the implementation of their NDCs through non-market approaches.
They invited other countries, multi-national and sub-national entities and multinational institutions to join us in the full operationalization of all the above principles, to support the highest possible ambition and environmental integrity.
ENDS

Wednesday 18 December 2019

State of the Australian economy as it enters 2020


On 16 December 2019 Australian Treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg, put out a glowing media release concerning the health of the national economy which bears little resemblance to data his own department released on that same day.

Treasury on behalf of the Morrison Coalition Government informed Australia that it now has less income than was anticipated just prior to the 2019 federal election and, that economic growth is now slower.

Total receipts have been revised down by about $3.0 billion in 2019-20 and $32.6 billion over the four years to 2022-23.

These falls are due to less money coming into Treasury from individuals taxes, company tax and superannuation tax, as well as less dollars being collected through the tax on goods & services (GST) and lower non-tax income.

Federal government net debt is expected to be $392.3 billion in 2019-20 (19.5 per cent of GDP). Gross debt now stands at over $560.8 billion.

Slower economic growth is explained as due in part to decreased production and lower export levels in the farming sector, a decline in iron ore prices, softer wages growth, diminished business confidence & investment uncertainty.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) nominal growth is 3.25 per cent but is expected to fall to 2.25 per cent in the coming financial year.

Wages growth is still under performing at 2.5 per cent and, there is no guarantee that the revised projection of 3 per cent wage growth by 2022-23 is achievable.

Unemployment is beginning to rise.

The number of people who had jobs fell by 19,700 individuals between the May federal election and October 2019. Employment numbers are projected to fall over the next 5 years in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Manufacturing and Information, Media & Technology.

Cost of living (CPI) is not coming down. CPI rose 1.7 per cent through the year to the September 2019 quarter. This followed a through the year rise of 1.6 per cent to the June 2019 quarter. Retail prices, particularly for clothing, footwear, meat, dairy, bread and cereal products, have risen.

As for the much lauded budget surplus for 2019-20, it has shrunk from $7.1 billion to $5 billion. While the rubbery figures in forward estimates see the expected surplus for 2020-2021 reduced from $11 billion to $6.1 billion, then from $17.8 billion down to $8.2 billion in 2021-22, with the fiscal year after that supposed to bring in a surplus of only $4 billion instead of the projected $9.2 billion.

One can almost hear Morrison ordering a funding red pen through even more health, disability and welfare services/programs in a vain attempt to avoid intensifying the economic squeeze his flawed political ideology is imposing on the nation.

Notes:

* Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg 16 December 2019 media release at 

* Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) December 2019 at https://budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/myefo/download/MYEFO_2019-20.pdf

* Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) April 2019 at https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2019-pefo

* Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) federal government debt updates at https://www.aofm.gov.au/


Labour Market Information Portal, “Industry Projections – 5 years to 2024” (Excel) at http://lmip.gov.au/PortalFile.axd?FieldID=2787734&.xlsx