Tiresome tea leaf reading: so who's winning at the opinion polls this week?

So who's winning at the opinion polls this week?
Bottom line is that Labor is slightly improved on first preference votes compared to last week (but not nearly enough to gladden the hearts of its backroom boys) and holding steady on two party preferred numbers.
While the Coalition is basically holding steady over the same week on both counts.
When is comes to confidence in the person - both Rudd and Abbott are on the nose with the electorate and although Rudd's fall from grace has been the more spectacular over the last few months it appears that Abbott remains the most unpopular of the two.

And who would win if an election was called tomorrow?
With The Greens growing stronger and their preferences still up for grabs, it's nothing more than a guessing game right now despite what some mainstream media pundits might say.
It's worth noting that those serious tea leaf readers, the punters, are still behind the Government. The money's running 63.8% for Labor and 36.2% for the Coalition as of 18th June.



Betting figures from Pollytics.







The real winners in all this number crunching are the professional pollers who have us all convinced that slight changes in weekly figures actually matter.

In last Monday's telephone Newspoll 18th -20th June 2010:

• the Labor Party held steady at 35% of the first preference vote and the Coalition fell one point to 40%


• on a two party preferred basis Labor rose one point to 52% and the Coalition fell one point to 48%


• dissatisfaction with Rudd's performance as Prime Minister rose two points to 55% and dissatisfaction with Abbott's performance as Opposition Leader stayed steady at 49%


• the preferred prime minister stakes ran at 46% for Rudd (a fall of three points) and 37% for Abbott (a rise of four points).

According to Newspoll; "These surveys were conducted on the telephone by trained interviewers in all states of Australia and in both city and country areas. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution. The latest survey is based on 1,147 interviews among voters. The maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points."

Out the same day the Essential Report online polling for the 15th - 20th June was released:

• the Labor Party rose three points to 38% of the first preference vote and the Coalition fell one point to 40%


• on a two party preferred basis Labor rose one point to 52% and the Coalition fell one point to 48%


• 40% believed that Labor would have a better chance at the next election if Rudd was not prime minister and 47% believed that the Coalition would have a better chance at the next election if Abbott was not opposition leader


• the preferred prime minister stakes ran at 47% for Rudd (a fall of three points since 22 March) and 30% for Abbott (trading water since 22 March).

According to Essential Report; "This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The omnibus was conducted online from 15h to 20th June and obtained 1,066 respondents."

About that war in Afghanistan.......

Photograph of Afghan war orphans from Flickr gallery

Remember when the media was full of concerns raised about the legitimacy of the war in Afghanistan and whether Australia should even be part of Operation Enduring Freedom or the War on Terror?

That debate appeared to die away over the years - now media and politicians barely mention the war except in terms of troop deployments or casualties. While as an election issue it is a non-event so far this year.

However, many ordinary Australians still hold to their views if the Essential Report on 21 June 2010 is any indication:

61% of respondents think Australia should withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, 24% think we should keep the same number and 7% think we should increase numbers. Support for withdrawal of troops has increased by 11% since this question was asked in March last year.
There was majority support for withdrawal of troops across all demographic groups and voter types. 55% of Liberal/National voters, 61% of Labor voters and 75% of Greens voters support withdrawal of Australia’s troops.

Click on image to enlarge

Australian Federal Election 2010: the refugee debate

Robert Tickner, Chief Executive Officer Australian Red Cross writing in The Daily Examiner on 21 June 2010:

IT would appear that Australians are a much more sympathetic and understanding lot than the current public debate around the plight of refugees and asylum seekers would indicate.
This is evident from the results of a recent survey of 1000 Australians commissioned by Australian Red Cross for Refugee Week.
The results indicate that:
86 per cent of people would flee to a safe country, if they lived in a conflict zone and were under threat.
94 per cent of these people would use all their money and assets to get to a safe country.
31 per cent know of someone who came to Australia escaping persecution or conflict.
83 per cent agree people fleeing persecution should be able to seek protection in another country.
83 per cent are willing to assist a refugee in their community settle in Australia.
67 per cent agree that refugees have made a positive contribution to Australian society.
On this evidence there appears to be a disconnection between the strong sympathy of the Australian public and the unsympathetic nature of much of the public debate around asylum seekers and refugees......

Coalition policy on refugees coming to Australia:

TONY Abbott says he will turn asylum-seeker boats back out to sea if the Coalition wins the next election (The Australian 31 December 2009)

Abbott smells votes. "If you want to stop the boats you've got to change the government,'' he says. His solution is a return to the Pacific Solution crafted by Howard, Alexander Downer and Peter Reith to deal with the Tampa crisis. If it is safe - which is unlikely - boats will be turned around. If not, everyone on board will be taken to either Christmas Island or another country for processing. Visas will only be temporary. The threat of being sent back will hang over people who have made the perilous trip by sea. And if they don't find a job they could miss out on Medicare and welfare. This last point is even tougher than Howard. (Herald Sun 21 June 2010)

Australian Government action:

KEVIN Rudd has frozen asylum applications from Afghans and Sri Lankans after receiving advice that people-smugglers were preparing to launch a new wave of vessels for northern Australia.
Sources confirmed yesterday that the decision, announced yesterday, came partly in response to new intelligence that people-smugglers were forming "new ventures" overseas expected to boost the boat traffic. (The Australian 10 April 2010)

The IWC is losing all credibility as alleged vote buying spreads ahead of this week's Morocco meeting

Female whale and calf

Whale song MP3 here and here

Once the United Nations and the International Whaling Commission (IWC) had almost universal credibility with regard to a global effort to reverse population decline amongst cetacean species.

As one of the original signatories to the INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION FOR THE REGULATION OF WHALING, Australia continued its support the IWC because of the moratorium on commercial whaling.
As part of a nation which had hunted whales it was obvious to many Australians that this unsustainable practice meant that we were in danger of losing part of our natural marine biodiversity and cultural heritage if whaling continued.
Australia formally banned whaling in 1979, ahead of the IWC 1982 vote to impose a general moratoriun by 1985.

However support for the IWC has turned to dismay at how easily this organisation has been subverted in the interests of whaling nations like Japan.

Any nation which allows its delegates to support the push to roll back the moratorium on commercial whaling this week will fully deserve the inevitable backlash, as ordinary people around the world (along with many ethical investors) quietly decide to boycott goods and services from those countries which are behaving like environmental vandals.

The Times on Sunday 20 June 2010 reported:

.....Anthony Liverpool will open the crucial International Whaling Commission (IWC) meeting in Morocco tomorrow which could vote to lift a 24-year ban on commercial whaling.

He has accepted free flights and the £4,000 cost of staying at a hotel with a private beach during the meeting. The hotel bills of five other countries' delegates are also being paid.

The payments will increase concern that Japan is bribing delegates to secure support for whaling and may be in breach of the IWC convention which says: "The expenses of each member of the commission ... shall be determined and paid by his own government." ......

On Friday Liverpool, the Antiguan IWC vice-chairman who will stand in as chairman at the meeting, said he did not know who was paying for his trip. "I am just aware of getting support through agencies," he said.

However, inquiries have shown that his bill at a hotel in Agadir is being paid by Japan Tours and Travel of Houston, a company said to be linked to Hideuki "Harry" Wakasa, who has previously been identified as the middleman who makes secret payments to the pro-whaling Caribbean countries.

Mr. Wakasa has been mentioned before according to BNET Australia in 2008:

Grenada's commissioner to the International Whaling Commission IWC from 1997 to 1999, Baptiste had been charged with pocketing more than US$75,000 sent by the Government of Japan as contributions to the Government of Grenada for its support of Japan at the International Whaling Commission. Investigators from Grenada visited Japan and the US gathering evidence on the alleged theft, which was said to have involved three payments in 1998 and 1999 through a U.S. corporation owned by a Japanese businessman, Hideuki "Harry" Wakasa.

This is the face of commercial whaling under the guise of scientific research as reported by Rushpr on 24 June 2009:

The data was

Clarence Valley media continues its gratuitious promotion of fast food outlets

One thing they definitely agree on is that Yamba needs a McDonald's and are both keen to see KFC follow is the gratuitous last line in a Page Two short article by The Daily Examiner journalist Marsha Neville on 19 June 2010.

As if the Yamba community were not well aware that it is likely that local media and certain Clarence Valley shire councillors are prepared to line up behind the Westlawn Group if its principals seek to attract another multinational fast food outlet to a lot near the forthcoming McDonald's Australia eat-in and drive through hamburger joint in Treelands Drive.

North Coast Voices is also watching with interest The Clarence Valley Review's recent attempt to censor mention of a Maccas boycott in its letters column. Tut, tut, John.

NumbaFood.mp3 Words and music by Clarence Valley resident Darrell Payton

St. Kevin faces the barbarians

Sometimes NSW North Coast cartoonist Jules Faber really hits the funny bone -

this is one of those times............

The Daily Examiner 16 June 2010

Indigenous whale dreaming in Australia - then and now.....*ATSIC readers please note that this post may contain images of persons who are deceased

This month the International Whaling Commission meets to decide if the global moratorium on commercial whaling remains in effect.
In the past the Commission has often considered the 'right' to hunt whales, but appears to pay little attention to the spiritual and cultural position of the whale in many societies such as the coastal/saltwater peoples of Australia.

Amongst all the creatures of creation was Gyian the whale, Baiyami's favourite .......The new world was born then Baiyami said to Gyian, "This will be your Dreaming place. You shall reign over these lands and waters, my friend. Your kin will forever live in these sacred realms on Earth. Go and give what I have given to you, the kinship of life. Gyian went into the lands taking with him the spirit of Baiyami.
Baiyami ascended back to the Mirrabooka. During the dreamtime period Gyian intermingled with other creatures , passing on the Laws of Baiyami. He later changed form from a bird of the land to live as he does today in the ocean as a whale. This was the birth of Gyian on Earth.

Riji: pearl shell ornament depicting Min-nimb, the whale circa 1930s
























Pearl shells, known as riji or jakuli in the Bardi language, are associated with water, spiritual powers and healing due to the luminous shimmering quality of their surfaces.

Kondili, the whale Kondili the whale song MP3
The Ramindjeri story of Kondili the whale was first published in Manners and customs of the Aborigines of the Encounter Bay tribe: South Australia in 1846 by Pastor H. Meyer who recorded the story from the Ramindjeri people at Encounter Bay with whom he worked. The story of Kondili is set before Ramindjeri people had fire. Meyer wrote that two to three hundred people would meet (probably from near and far) for dances during the time he worked with at Encounter Bay. A fire would be lit at sunset for light. Women sat apart with animal skins rolled up and held between the knees upon which they beat time. Young men wore emu feathers in their hair and red ochre paint or used chalk to make circles round the eyes, along the nose and dots on the forehead and cheeks and more designs on the body. These designs should not be copied without permission.

Whale Dreaming Elder -Elko Island



























Baby whale given indigenous burial in 2009
A baby humpback whale that washed up on a Gold Coast beach will be given a traditional burial by Aboriginal elders.
Wildlife authorities had planned to dump the animal at the council tip after it was found at Runaway Bay about 7am, until the traditional owners of the area, the Kombumberri people, were consulted about its disposal.
Instead, the eight-metre mammal was towed to South Stradbroke Island, where it has been buried ahead of a traditional ceremony later this week.

Excerpt from a November 2007 letter to the Honourable Emporor of Japan from the Woppaburra People

It is with the greatest respect and honour that we send this open letter, and that this great respect and honour can be reciprocated and afforded in our special request, we also send this open letter with our commitment to international peace and good will.

We respectfully request

'TO CEASE THE SLAUGHTER OF OUR SACRED SPIRITUAL TOTEM'
HUMPBACK WHALES - 'Mugga Mugga'

We are an Australian Aboriginal Tribal Group, the Woppaburra People, of the Keppel Islands, Great Barrier Reef, of Central Queensland, Australia. The Keppel Islands are the ancestral homelands of our ancestors/forefathers, who were the original aboriginal inhabitants (custodians) of the Keppel Islands. Today's descendants carry on the ancient customary laws, traditional practices, protocols of our ancestors/forefathers. Our 'living' culture is based on respect and honour for all living things, in the circle of life.
As an Aboriginal tribal group of Australia and as Australian citizen's, we have made a 'choice' to be proactive and champion the protection and conservation of our Sacred Spiritual Totem, the Humpback Whale - 'Mugga Mugga', we wish to join countries around the world in their humanitarian conservation cause to protect, not only the Humpback, but all whale species, all marine species and their natural habitats. Every living thing is here for a purpose, all elements, mankind, flora, fauna, we are dependant on each other's existence, Aboriginal people of Australia, have known this since our ancestors/forefathers times.
The Woppaburra language name for the humpback whale is 'Mugga Mugga', which is our 'Sacred Spiritual Totem', our sacred emblem, it is our life-long responsibility (from the days of our ancestors/forefathers) to protect them and the environment in which they live, we are spiritually connected with Mugga Mugga, they are as much a part of us, our family, as we are of them, their family, we are joined spiritually - forever. We can no longer sit in silence and tolerate their slaughter, as our ancestors/forefathers witnessed in long times gone by. We are becoming increasingly upset and stressed in regard to Japan and their pending 'take' of 50 of our sacred emblem - spiritual totem, Mugga Mugga, for the purpose of scientific research.
The Woppaburra descendants of today, like our ancestors/forefathers in long times gone by, cry tears of sorrow and anguish in silence, in seeing this ongoing slaughter of our emblem - sacred spiritual totem. The beautiful songs and singing of our whale populations is the way they communicate, and we have always strongly believed, just like our ancestors/forefathers, that they also sing songs of sorrow, sorrow for mankind, in the near destruction of their species, and songs of sorrow, for the way mankind destroys all things that are beautiful in our world. The emotional, spiritual health and well-being of the Woppaburra People, past and present and future generations, will continue to suffer, as we witness and are helpless in stopping the slaughter of our Sacred Spiritual Totem - Mugga Mugga.
Each year, on the commencement of their migration journey from the Antartic to the Great Barrier Reef to breed, the Woppaburra People of the Keppel Islands, rejoice and wait in anticipation and celebrate (in private) in knowing that their sacred spiritual totem, Mugga Mugga, will soon be home for a short while for another year and hope and pray (in private and silence) that their Sacred Spiritual Totem, Mugga Mugga will continue to have safe passage as they travel their annual migratory journey. It is a 'good omen' for us, that everything in the world is as it should be, all elements of our mother earth is continuing, there is 'balance' in the life cycles of all living things, just as we all enjoy the full seasons of Mother Earth, Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter - and when there is 'disturbance' in our world, brought about by mankind, we will always feel the 'full fury' of our Mother Earth, as a global family - it is her warning, to stop and think, before its to late.........
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Image from Spikebot at Flickr