According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.
Monday 29 April 2019
Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten
Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is
not yet over for the Morrison Government.
The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two
Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull
Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.
Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.
53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:
Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per
cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent
(unchanged).
Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition
49 per cent (up 1 point).
Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison
-1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2
points).
If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the
preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a
majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats
(up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.
According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.
In other words the
status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals
having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since
2004.
Candidates standing in Richmond electorate at the 18 May 2019 federal election
Echo
NetDaily, 26
April 2019:
There are eight
candidates for the federal electorate of Richmond, which covers the Byron,
Ballina and Tweed shires.
The seat has been held
since 2004 by Labor’s Justine Elliot, and like the state seat of Ballina
(Byron and Ballina Shires), the strong Byron Green vote has helped Labor’s
Elliot maintain power.
ABC election guru Antony
Green describes the electorate of Richmond: “The Green victory in the state
seat of Ballina was overwhelmingly owing to Green support in Byron Shire, where
rich retirees and alternative lifestylers have flooded into a former rural
shire. The Nationals still won Ballina itself, while Green support in the state
seat of Tweed, making up the northern half of Richmond, was only 13.3 per cent.
A Green victory in Richmond probably requires the Greens to pass Labor with
then hope of then defeating the National Party on preferences. Given the
increasing urbanisation of Richmond, it may be the Liberal Party will
eventually return to contesting Richmond, further complicating the contest”.
Candidates in Ballot Paper
Order
1. Ronald McDonald, Sustainable
Australia
2. Hamish Mitchell, United Australia
Party
3. Morgan Cox, Christian Democratic
Party (Fred Nile Group)
4. Justine Elliot, Labor
5. Ray Karam, Independent
6. Tom Barnett, Involuntary Medication
Objectors (Vaccination/Fluoride)
7. Matthew Fraser, The Nationals
8. Michael Lyon, The Greens
Early
voting starts on Monday 29 April 2019 at 8.30am.
Early voting centres for the Ricmond & Tweed valleys and elsewhere can be found at:
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/voting.htm#voting
Early voting centres for the Ricmond & Tweed valleys and elsewhere can be found at:
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/voting.htm#voting
Labels:
elections 2019,
Richmond electorate
Scott Morrison and News Corp need fact checking - again!
The Australian Labor Party released its
dividend
imputation policy in 2018 and began to come under sustained political
attack by the Morrison Government and News Corp with claims that there was a
$10 billion dollar hole in Labor’s costing of its policy.
On 18 June
2018 the Parliamentary Budget Office issued
a media release:
Imputation
credits policy costing
Earlier today, comments
have been made about the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimates of the
gains to revenue that may flow from the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP’s) policy
to make imputation credits non-refundable.
“The PBO brings our best
professional judgement to the independent policy costing advice we
provide. We have access to the same data
and economic parameters as The Treasury and draw upon similar information in
forming our judgements,” Parliamentary Budget Officer Jenny Wilkinson stated
today.
“We stand behind the PBO
estimates that have been published by the ALP in relation to this policy,
noting that all policy costings, no matter who they are prepared by, are
subject to uncertainty.” In its advice,
the PBO is explicit about the judgements and uncertainties associated with
individual policy costings.
The PBO confirms that it
always takes into account current and future policy commitments, as well as
behavioural changes, in its policy costings.
In this case, as outlined at the recent Senate Estimates hearings, these
included the superannuation changes announced in the 2016–17 Budget and the
scheduled company tax cuts. In addition,
the PBO explicitly assumed that there would be significant behavioural changes
that would flow from this policy, particularly for trustees of self-managed
superannuation funds.
The PBO was established
as an independent institution in 2012 with broad support from the
Parliament. A key rationale for the
formation of the PBO was to develop a more level playing field, by providing
independent and unbiased advice to all parliamentarians about the estimated
fiscal cost of policy proposals. The
purpose of establishing the PBO was to improve the public’s understanding of,
and confidence in, policy costings and enable policy debates to focus on the
merits of alternative policy proposals.
Ten months later on 25 April
2019 News Corp’s The Daily Examiner ran an article on page 8 concerning Labor’s
dividend imputation policy which stated:
The independent
Parliamentary Budget Office has estimated Labor’s plan would save $7 billion
less over a decade than the party expects and that it would affect 840,000
individuals, 210,000 self-managed super funds (SMSFs) plus some bigger funds.
Now the
Parliamentary Budget Office publishes
the requests for information it receives, including requests for policy implications and
costings, however there appears to be no new request for information and
costings on Labor’s dividend imputation policy on its website.
Morrison
& Co have been caught out misrepresenting the source of their costings
before and even flat out lying on occasion, so one has to suspect the veracity
of their latest attack on this particular policy.
It's just as likely costings and other figures were done on the back of an envelope by Morrison or Frydenberg.
Sunday 28 April 2019
Page Electorate candidates ballot paper positions and early voting centre information
This is what the Page electorate ballot paper will look like on 18 May 2019:
Early voting starts on Monday 29 April 2019 at 8.30am.
Early voting centres for the Clarence Valley and elsewhere can be found at:
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/voting.htm#voting
Labels:
elections 2019,
Page electorate
Climate Change: It is time to panic
'I hope that its foundations are strong. I hope that our foundations are even stronger.' — Teen climate activist Greta Thunberg wants us to come together to save our planet like we did to save the Notre Dame pic.twitter.com/obhOhfNKuL— Tomthunkit™ (@TomthunkitsMind) April 22, 2019
Labels:
climate change,
extinction event
Saturday 27 April 2019
Tweet of the Week
I’m struggling with this.. Did @PatsKarvelas really just read out a text she received from Barnaby Joyce begging for clemency over #watergate? Is Barnaby drunk at 9:30am? #Insiders— Terry Serio (@TerrySerio) April 20, 2019
Labels:
Barnaby Joyce,
water security
Quotes of the Week
“The ABC's Vote Compass has
been harvesting the opinions of Australians for three elections now……The vast
majority of respondents — 78 per cent — think that the decision to remove
Malcolm Turnbull in August last year was the wrong call. That conclusion is
drawn from 153,354 responses to Vote Compass between April 10 and April 16……Among One Nation voters, 59 per
cent approved of Mr Turnbull's removal, while 41 per cent disapproved. ” [Journalist
Annabelle Crabb writing for ABC News
online, 19 Aptil 2019]
“Pentecostalism is
in fact the perfect faith for a conviction politician without convictions.” [Writer & historian James Boyce writing in The
Monthly, Februart 2019]
Labels:
elections 2019,
libspill,
religion
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