Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and Newspoll results tighten

Only 19 days out from the 2019 federal election and the losing streak is not yet over for the Morrison Government.

The last time the Coalition were ahead on a Newspoll Two Party Preferred (TPP) basis was on 2 July 2016 when the Turnbull Government stood at 50.5 per cent on the day of the 2016 federal election.

Which means the losing streak has now stretched to just under 34 months.

53rd Newpoll results – published 29 April 2019:

Primary Vote – Labor 37 percent (down 2 points) to Liberal-Nationals 38 per cent (down 1 point), The Greens 9 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 4 per cent (unchanged).

Two Party Preferred (TPP) - Labor 51 per cent (down 1 point) to Liberal-Nationals Coalition 49 per cent (up 1 point).

Voter Net Satisfaction With Leaders’ Performance – Prime Minister Scott Morrison -1 point (down 1 point) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten -12 points (up 2 points).

If a federal election had been held on 29 April 2019 based of the preference flow in July 2016, then Labor would have won government with a majority 77 seats (down 5 seats since 16 April poll ) to the Coalition's 68 seats (up 5 seats since 16 April poll) in the House of Representatives.

According to Antony Green's Swing Calculator the 27-28 April 2019 Newspoll results will see the Nationals retain the Page and Cowper electorates and Labor retain the Richmond electorate.

In other words the status quo is predicted to remain for another three years – the Nationals having held Page since 2013 and Cowper since 2001. Labor has held Richmond since 2004.

Candidates standing in Richmond electorate at the 18 May 2019 federal election

Echo NetDaily, 26 April 2019:

There are eight candidates for the federal electorate of Richmond, which covers the Byron, Ballina and Tweed shires.

The seat has been held since 2004 by Labor’s Justine Elliot, and like the state seat of Ballina (Byron and Ballina Shires), the strong Byron Green vote has helped Labor’s Elliot maintain power. 

ABC election guru Antony Green describes the electorate of Richmond: “The Green victory in the state seat of Ballina was overwhelmingly owing to Green support in Byron Shire, where rich retirees and alternative lifestylers have flooded into a former rural shire. The Nationals still won Ballina itself, while Green support in the state seat of Tweed, making up the northern half of Richmond, was only 13.3 per cent. A Green victory in Richmond probably requires the Greens to pass Labor with then hope of then defeating the National Party on preferences. Given the increasing urbanisation of Richmond, it may be the Liberal Party will eventually return to contesting Richmond, further complicating the contest”.

Candidates in Ballot Paper Order

1. Ronald McDonald, Sustainable Australia 

2. Hamish Mitchell, United Australia Party

3. Morgan Cox, Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 

4. Justine Elliot, Labor

5. Ray Karam, Independent

6. Tom Barnett, Involuntary Medication Objectors (Vaccination/Fluoride) 

7. Matthew Fraser, The Nationals

8. Michael Lyon, The Greens

Early voting starts on Monday 29 April 2019 at 8.30am. 

Early voting centres for the Ricmond & Tweed valleys and elsewhere can be found at:
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/voting.htm#voting

Scott Morrison and News Corp need fact checking - again!

The Australian Labor Party released its dividend imputation policy in 2018 and began to come under sustained political attack by the Morrison Government and News Corp with claims that there was a $10 billion dollar hole in Labor’s costing of its policy.

On 18 June 2018 the Parliamentary Budget Office issued a media release:

Imputation credits policy costing

Earlier today, comments have been made about the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimates of the gains to revenue that may flow from the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP’s) policy to make imputation credits non-refundable.

“The PBO brings our best professional judgement to the independent policy costing advice we provide.  We have access to the same data and economic parameters as The Treasury and draw upon similar information in forming our judgements,” Parliamentary Budget Officer Jenny Wilkinson stated today.

“We stand behind the PBO estimates that have been published by the ALP in relation to this policy, noting that all policy costings, no matter who they are prepared by, are subject to uncertainty.”  In its advice, the PBO is explicit about the judgements and uncertainties associated with individual policy costings.

The PBO confirms that it always takes into account current and future policy commitments, as well as behavioural changes, in its policy costings.  In this case, as outlined at the recent Senate Estimates hearings, these included the superannuation changes announced in the 2016–17 Budget and the scheduled company tax cuts.  In addition, the PBO explicitly assumed that there would be significant behavioural changes that would flow from this policy, particularly for trustees of self-managed superannuation funds. 

The PBO was established as an independent institution in 2012 with broad support from the Parliament.  A key rationale for the formation of the PBO was to develop a more level playing field, by providing independent and unbiased advice to all parliamentarians about the estimated fiscal cost of policy proposals.  The purpose of establishing the PBO was to improve the public’s understanding of, and confidence in, policy costings and enable policy debates to focus on the merits of alternative policy proposals. 

Ten months later on 25 April 2019 News Corp’s The Daily Examiner ran an article on page 8 concerning Labor’s dividend imputation policy which stated:

The independent Parliamentary Budget Office has estimated Labor’s plan would save $7 billion less over a decade than the party expects and that it would affect 840,000 individuals, 210,000 self-managed super funds (SMSFs) plus some bigger funds.

Now the Parliamentary Budget Office publishes the requests for information it receives, including requests for policy implications and costings, however there appears to be no new request for information and costings on Labor’s dividend imputation policy on its website.

Morrison & Co have been caught out misrepresenting the source of their costings before and even flat out lying on occasion, so one has to suspect the veracity of their latest attack on this particular policy.

It's just as likely costings and other figures were done on the back of an envelope by Morrison or Frydenberg.

Page Electorate candidates ballot paper positions and early voting centre information

This is what the Page electorate ballot paper will look like on 18 May 2019:

Early voting starts on Monday 29 April 2019 at 8.30am.

Early voting centres for the Clarence Valley and elsewhere can be found at: 

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/voting.htm#voting

Climate Change: It is time to panic

'I hope that its foundations are strong. I hope that our foundations are even stronger.' — Teen climate activist Greta Thunberg wants us to come together to save our planet like we did to save the Notre Dame pic.twitter.com/obhOhfNKuL

— Tomthunkit™ (@TomthunkitsMind) April 22, 2019

Tweet of the Week

I’m struggling with this.. Did @PatsKarvelas really just read out a text she received from Barnaby Joyce begging for clemency over #watergate? Is Barnaby drunk at 9:30am? #Insiders

— Terry Serio (@TerrySerio) April 20, 2019

Quotes of the Week

“The ABC's Vote Compass has been harvesting the opinions of Australians for three elections now……The vast majority of respondents — 78 per cent — think that the decision to remove Malcolm Turnbull in August last year was the wrong call. That conclusion is drawn from 153,354 responses to Vote Compass between April 10 and April 16……Among One Nation voters, 59 per cent approved of Mr Turnbull's removal, while 41 per cent disapproved. ”  [Journalist  Annabelle Crabb writing for ABC News online, 19 Aptil 2019]

“Pentecostalism is in fact the perfect faith for a conviction politician without convictions.”  [Writer & historian James Boyce writing in The Monthly, Februart 2019]