In
the early hours of August 8, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report detailing climate
change’s effects on land and agricultural practices. The next
morning, on August 9, a majority of top newspapers in each of the top
10 agricultural producing states failed to mention this report on
their front pages. Additionally, neither NBC Nightly News nor any of
the Sunday political news shows discussed the report.
According
to the new IPCC report, climate change is drastically altering the
planet’s agricultural land and humankind’s ability to survive
from it. Land use accounts for about 23% of human greenhouse gas
emissions, and practices like deforestation and intensive farming are
adding more stress to it. Fertilizer emissions have risen sharply
since the 1960s, and soil is being lost at an almost unprecedented
rate. Land is heating up faster than the oceans, and the consequences
-- more droughts, floods, coastal erosion, and melting permafrost --
have major food security implications. Food insecurity will hit
people from developing and lower-income countries the hardest.
The
IPCC has laid out a number of solutions to this crisis, including
cutting food waste, adopting smarter farming methods, and protecting
forests. Ultimately, the report states that humanity needs to become
better stewards of its land if we want to tackle the climate crisis.
In Australia the mainstream media response to the UN report was almost as desultory, with only the AAP wire service and three print mastheads running articles in the first two days.
For
those who have not yet read the 43 page IPCC summary or started on the much longer full report, here are some
of the predictions set out below.
As
of June 2019 the world population is an est. 7.7 billion men, women
and children. This figure is too high to guarantee that people will not die of thirst, starvation, heat stress, severe cold, infection or natural disaster as
climate change intensifies.
A1.5.
About a quarter of the Earth’s ice-free land area is subject to
human-induced degradation (medium confidence). Soil erosion from
agricultural fields is estimated to be currently 10 to 20 times (no
tillage) to more than 100 times (conventional tillage) higher than
the soil formation rate (medium confidence). Climate change
exacerbates land degradation, particularly in low-lying coastal
areas, river deltas, drylands and in permafrost areas (high
confidence). Over the period 1961-2013, the annual area of drylands
in drought has increased, on average by slightly more than 1% per
year, with large inter-annual variability. In 2015, about 500
(380-620) million people lived within areas which experienced
desertification between the 1980s and 2000s. The highest numbers of
people affected are in South and East Asia, the circum Sahara region
including North Africa, and the Middle East including the Arabian
peninsula (low confidence). Other dryland regions have also
experienced desertification. People living in already degraded or
desertified areas are increasingly negatively affected by climate
change (high confidence). {1.1, 1.2, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, Figure
SPM.1}
A2.5.
In some dryland areas, increased land surface air temperature and evapotranspiration
and decreased precipitation amount, in interaction with climate
variability and human activities, have contributed to
desertification. These areas include Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of
East and Central Asia, and Australia. (medium confidence) {2.2,
3.2.2, 4.4.1}
A4.5.
Changes in forest cover for example from afforestation, reforestation
and deforestation, directly affect regional surface temperature through exchanges of
water and energy27 (high confidence). Where forest cover
increases in tropical regions cooling results from enhanced
evapotranspiration (high confidence). Increased evapotranspiration
can result in cooler days during the growing season (high confidence)
and can reduce the amplitude of heat related events (medium
confidence). In regions with seasonal snow cover, such as boreal and
some
temperate,
increased tree and shrub cover also has a wintertime warming
influence due to reduced surface albedo28 (high confidence). {2.3,
2.4.3, 2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.4}
A.
Risks to humans and ecosystems from changes in land-based processes
as a result of climate change
Increases
in global mean surface temperature (GMST), relative to pre-industrial
levels, affect processes involved in desertification (water
scarcity), land degradation (soil erosion, vegetation loss, wildfire,
permafrost thaw) and food security (crop yield and food supply
instabilities). Changes in these processes drive risks to food
systems, livelihoods, infrastructure, the value of land, and human
and ecosystem health. Changes in one process (e.g. wildfire or water
scarcity) may result in compound risks. Risks are location-specific
and differ by region
A5.2.
With increasing warming, climate zones are projected to further shift
poleward in the middle and high latitudes (high confidence). In
high-latitude regions, warming is projected to increase disturbance
in boreal forests, including drought, wildfire, and pest outbreaks
(high confidence). In tropical regions, under medium and high GHG
emissions scenarios, warming is projected to result in the emergence
of unprecedented29 climatic conditions by the mid to late 21st
century (medium confidence). {2.2.4, 2.2.5, 2.5.3, 4.3.2}
A5.3.
Current levels of global warming are associated with moderate risks
from increased dryland water scarcity, soil erosion, vegetation loss,
wildfire damage, permafrost thawing, coastal degradation and tropical
crop yield decline (high confidence). Risks, including cascading
risks, are projected to become increasingly severe with increasing
temperatures. At around 1.5°C of global warming the risks from
dryland water scarcity, wildfire damage, permafrost degradation and
food supply instabilities are projected to be high (medium confidence). At around
2°C of global warming the risk from permafrost degradation and food
supply instabilities are projected to be very high (medium
confidence). Additionally, at around 3°C of global warming risk from
vegetation loss, wildfire damage, and dryland water scarcity are also
projected to be very high (medium confidence). Risks from droughts,
water stress, heat related events such as heatwaves and habitat degradation
simultaneously increase between 1.5°C and 3°C warming (low
confidence). {Figure SPM.2, 7.2.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6,
Chapter 7 supplementary material}
A5.4.
The stability of food supply30 is projected to decrease as the
magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events that disrupt food
chains increases (high confidence). Increased atmospheric CO2 levels
can also lower the nutritional quality of crops (high confidence). In
SSP2, global crop and economic models project a median increase of
7.6% (range of 1 to 23%) in cereal prices in 2050 due to climate
change (RCP6.0), leading to higher food prices and increased risk of
food insecurity and hunger (medium confidence). The most vulnerable
people will be more severely affected (high confidence). {5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5,
5.8.1, 7.2.2.2, 7.3.1}
A5.5.
In drylands, climate change and desertification are projected to
cause reductions in crop and livestock productivity (high
confidence), modify the plant species mix and reduce biodiversity
(medium confidence). Under SSP2, the dryland population vulnerable to
water stress, drought intensity and habitat degradation is projected
to reach 178 million people by 2050 at 1.5°C warming, increasing to
220 million people at 2°C warming, and 277 million people at 3°C
warming (low confidence). {3.5.1, 3.5.2, 3.7.3}
