Resolve Strategic voter intention poll was releases on 22 August 2022 and the Coalition & Opposition Leader Peter Dutton lose more ground

 

It has been three months since the federal general election.

The Sydney Morning Herald released its 21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic poll on Monday 22 August.

According to the newspaper; Voters have swung behind Labor with a surge of support to give the new federal government a strong lead in the community with a primary vote of 42 per cent, up from 33 per cent at the election just three months ago. The significant shift has given Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a commanding lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton of 55 to 17 per cent as preferred prime minister….

In New South Wales those figures translate as a Primary Vote of:

Labor – 42%

Coalition (Lib-Nats) – 29%

Greens – 11%

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation – 5%

Clive Palmer’s United Australia – 2%

Independents – 8%

Other – 3%

With 77% of NSW survey respondents committed to their choice.

• Across the state male survey respondents were the most impressed with Labor showing 42% support compared to female respondents on 40%.

• Female survey respondents were the least impressed with the Coalition showing only 28% support compared to males respondents on 30%.

According to this survey Labor now leads the Coalition on National Security (by 4 percentage points), Jobs & Wages (by 25 percentage points), and Environment (by 26 percentage points).

On the Preferred Prime Minister question the NSW result was:

Anthony Albanese – 55%

Peter Dutton – 17%

• Across the state male survey respondents were the most impressed with Anthony Albanese at 59% compared to female respondents on 52%.

• Female survey respondents were the least impressed with the Peter Dutton showing only 15% support compared to males respondents on 19%.

Almost singlehandedly the policies and actions of the NSW O'Farrell-Baird-Berejiklian-Perrottet coalition governments have brought the Koala to the brink of extinction

https://youtu.be/w8LiyaMs0xU

This century started with celebrations across the state. 

Twenty-two years in and there is little to celebrate in New South Wales.

The state is at the sharp end of climate change impacts, the sharp end of a pandemic and, the sharp end of the Koala extinction crisis.

In 2019-20 alone over 17 million hectares were burnt or impacted and more than 61,000 koalas killed, injured or impacted by fire in the east coast mega bushfire season.

More than than 5.3 million hectares were burnt or impacted in NSW, including 2.7 million hectares of national parks.

In NSW more koala have also been lost to widespread flooding and the stress of habitat loss as the NSW Government continues to allow an unsustainable level of land clearing.

A total of 646,418 hectares have been approved for land clearing in the state between 9 March 2018 and 1 April 2022. The rate at which native vegetation was being cleared was over 61,00 hectares a year.

In 2020-21 the state-owned forestry corporation logged an est. 13,500 hectares of native forest and, as in the past, repeatedly logged in protected areas or known koala habitat.

Currently it is estimated that Australia-wide there may be as few as 43,000 koala left of the est. 7-10 million koala population calculated to exist in 1788. Almost certainly less than 80,000 koala.

In NSW there is some suggestion that the current number of koala left in the wild could be as low as <11,000 individuals in increasingly isolated colonies. Since the 2019-20 devastation of national parks, many of these koalas are now found on private land.

It should be noted that the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison federal coalition governments' support of the continued logging of New South Wales native forests between September 2013 to May 2022 had exacerbated the rate of land clearing/loss of native tree cover and the environmental impacts which flow from the removal of so many mature trees.

Northern Rivers resident & former NSW Liberal MLC Catherine Cusack: "I hadn’t realised the former PM’s capacity to upset ordinary people and destroy their trust in government, until now"

Former Liberal MLA Catherine Cusack, writing in The Guardian, 19 August 2022:

I hadn’t realised the former PM’s capacity to upset ordinary people and destroy their trust in government, until now

The most powerful man in the land exploited a health crisis to extract yet more power.’ Photograph: Steven Saphore/AFP/Getty Images

Scott Morrison still possesses an incredible ability to divide and destroy the Australian polity.

His capacity to upset ordinary people – erode their hopes and sour trust in the institutions they are forced to rely on – was overwhelming during Q+A on Thursday.

Technically I was a panel member – but for me, the audience is always the real panel and it was dismaying to observe their bewilderment, cynicism and anguish on the topic of the former prime minister.

I have personally been so twisted up about him since his dreadful visit as prime minister to Lismore after the floods that I hadn’t fully comprehended his wider toxic impact.

That is, until Thursday – listening to Penrith residents ask simple, legitimate questions, and watching their reactions while the camera was fixed on panellists who could only offer solidarity in lieu of answers. Because there are no acceptable answers. Morrison is relentlessly breaking the heart of Australian faith in democracy. And he seems to find that funny.

I do not believe anyone can truthfully say they “know” Morrison. I can say I have “experienced” Scott for 22 years. I have thought about him, tried to work with him and desperately wanted to understand him as a member of his Liberal “team”.

What a quixotic quest that turned out to be. Initially my concern was for the impact his scheming and power games were having on the Liberal party. When as state director he helped Alex Hawke take over scores of strategic Liberal branches it changed the culture of our organisation.

The scheming escalated to the point of thwarting his own party’s efforts to select candidates for the federal election. It made no sense. On 7.30 Leigh Sales asked “why?” and we were given the ludicrous reply: “I did it to help women.”

Understandably, the ordinary citizen may not care how the NSW Liberal party has been so ruthlessly used and rendered a smoking ruin. But Morrison and his government’s power games have had direct impacts on people’s lives.

I felt that intensely during the Northern Rivers floods. Under his government, victims in a Nationals electorate received cash payments denied to victims in a Labor electorate. The pain inflicted was far more than financial. This nasty political parry crushed a desperate community that needed solidarity and compassionate leadership. Instead, they were made to feel like worthless political pawns.

This was a betrayal of a government’s duty to serve every citizen of this country.

When neither state government nor local government live up to their promise to Lismore flood victims

 

THEN

The Northern Star/Daily Telegraph, 5 June 2022:

The scheme targets thousands of flood affected residents from across all seven Northern Rivers government areas and comes as part of a $40 million package by the NSW government.

Deputy Premier and Minister Regional NSW Paul Toole said ratepayers who’s property had been deemed “damaged” would be eligible, or those who had already successfully claimed through Service NSW.

“Northern Rivers residents have been to hell and back, and receiving a rates notice for a home or business they still can barely access is the absolute last thing they need,” Mr Toole said.

He said the NSW government will continue to support flood victims as fears many are still suffering financially and mentally.

“This rates relief is one less thing they need to worry about as they continue to rebuild their lives – and we’ll continue to stand by their side on that journey in the months and years ahead,” he said.

Local government minister Wendy Tuckerman said anyone in the impacted regions is eligible for the scheme, which include Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond Valley and Tweed.

“The unprecedented flooding has had a disastrous impact on homes, farms and business premises, particularly in the Northern Rivers, and many people from that region are still doing it tough,” Mrs Tuckerman said.

She said the scheme will address residential, commercial and farm rates for the 2022/23 financial year, with the hope it will “help them get back on their feet and ease the pressure on council.”…...

NOW

The Northern Star/Daily Telegraph, 12 August 2022:

Flood impacted ratepayers in the Northern Rivers are outraged over broken promises to have their rates paid for the year.

In a well-meaning gesture to ease financial burdens on the region, Lismore Mayor Steve Krieg publicly announced council would waive the cost of rates for those directly impacted by the floods during the initial clean-up stages in March.

Community anger was aroused when council found they could not deliver on their promise, taking extra time for legal advice and to start lobbying for financial aid.

In June, the State Government announced a $40 million rates relief package for the region.

But ratepayers are calling the announcements misleading as they did not explain the relief would only cover the land value element of their rates bills.

Lismore resident Binnie O’Dwyer said being a single mother with two teenagers was hard enough.

“I live in the basin on Hindmarsh Street,” Ms O’Dwyer said.

“I just thought rates were rates and everything on the rates notice is rates.

“So, to now be told that only a part of that will be waived is misleading.”

Ms O’Dwyer said she cannot help feeling cynical about government promises.

“And it just adds to the extreme financial burden that I am carrying since the floods’’ she said.

“Having to rebuild and replace things costs a lot and when this announcement was made it was like a small reprieve.

“So, to have that taken away is hard and it just makes me cynical about all their announcements of help which don’t seem to amount to much.”

Lismore councillor Adam Guise said residents were getting their rates notices now with shock and trepidation because their rates have not been waived.

“It is a portion of what they were led to believe,” Cr Guise said. “We told them we would waive rates.

“We had Minister Cooke say eligible ratepayers would not be paying their rates for the next year.

“We need to ask them [state government] to come through on their promise to the community and deliver full rate relief.”

He said flood impacted residents who may be homeless or not living in their homes did not deserve this shock, especially in the light of uninhabitable homes and businesses.

“This is despite the State Government’s $40 million announcement of rates relief across the region and a $20 million ’grant’ to Lismore council that we’re yet to sign,” Mr Guise said.

In a unanimous vote, Lismore councillors agreed to write to the State Government and relevant ministers to call on them to honour their promise to pay rates in full…..

Lismore Council has received an advance of around $6.5 million to cover the rates cost from the state government. “Further payments will be made monthly to councils throughout the 2022/23 financial year,’’ the spokesperson said. 

“Councils can also provide relief to ratepayers experiencing genuine financial hardship through their hardship provisions.’’

Cartoon of the Week

 

Cathy Wilcox

Quotes of the Week

 

‘“Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said Hurley should explain his thought process.

"The governor-general is not just a rubber stamp. They have a Constitution to uphold," Turnbull said on ABC radio.

Turnbull said if he had attempted to secretly appoint himself to a ministry, neither former governor-general Peter Cosgrove nor his own senior staff would have allowed it.

One conservative Liberal MP said there were serious questions about the role of the governor-general in the appointments, which is yet to be fully revealed.

"Did he report this to the Queen - did he get advice from outside to know if what was being asked was actually legal," they said on condition of anonymity.’

[Nine Entertainment-Fairfax journalists Katina Curtis and James Massola writing in The Sydney Morning Herald, 17 August 2022]

 

"So, we have a few questions. Did the Governor-General not understand the perverse implications of having dual ministers? Did he not realise that every daily Hansard, which list ministers and their portfolios for every parliamentary session, was misleading? And if the Governor-General did not see these problems, what was he and his staff doing? If Governor-General Hurley did have qualms, did he ask for and wait for authoritative legal advice. If all he had was the opinion of the then-attorney general Christian Porter, did he not appreciate such advice would be insufficient? Accepting legal advice from Mr Porter would have been akin to using a prescription written by the then-health minister Mr Hunt.”

[Tony Harris former NSW Auditor General and senior Commonwealth officer writing in The Australian, 17 August 2022]

The Independent Report into the 2022 NSW floods is now public. Will the response of the Perrottet Coalition Government result in a half-hearted 'rinse and repeat' approach to post-flood planning? Or will there be a serious effort to address risk?

 

Call me cynical, but after spending decades watching property developers, the construction industry, business lobbyists, venal politicians and dodgy local government administrations make a mockery of federal and state laws meant to protect against environmental vandalism, planning decisions that place communities at risk and sub-standard dwelling design and construction, I have yet to see any indication that the NSW Perrottet Government or various local governments intend to do more than paper over the current and future flood risks within the est. 100km wide & 2,007km long coastal zone of New South Wales.

GRAPHIC: Fuller M. & O’Kane M. (29 July 2022) Report, 2022 Flood Inquiry Volume One: Summary.

Data used in the infographic on the prior page is from the following sources:

• Rainfall data. Bureau of Meteorology. (2022). Special Climate Statement 76 – Extreme rainfall and flooding in south-eastern Queensland and eastern NSW. Retrieved from: scs76.pdf (bom.gov.au)

• Roads data. Transport for NSW. (2022). Advice to the Inquiry provided and valid as of 21 July 2022. 

• Agricultural data. Department of Primary Industries. (2022). Advice to the Inquiry provided and valid as of 4 July 2022.

• Unless specified above, data has been provided to the Inquiry from Resilience NSW and is valid as of 13 July 2022. This does not include Inquiry data.

Fuller M. & O’Kane M. (... by clarencegirl

The full report can be found at:

https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/noindex/2022-08/VOLUME_TWO_Full%20report.pdf

BACKGROUND

A brief explanation of the processes involved in 2022 high rainfall events.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Special Climate Statement 76, 25 May 2022, excerpt:

The 2022 rainfall and flooding were the result of a blocking high pressure system over New Zealand, that assisted the formation of a series of slow-moving low pressure systems within a trough that fed a large volume of warm moist air from the Coral and Tasman seas into eastern Australia. The subsequent development of a series of deep low pressure systems delivered intense rain to east and south-east New South Wales. Following two years of La Niña conditions, the rain fell on catchments that were already wet so water storages and river levels were high and catchments quickly became saturated…..

BOM, Key climate drivers behind record rainfall in New South Wales, 5 July 2022, excerpt:

The Bureau's 2022 winter outlook showed above average rainfall over the coming months, particularly for most of eastern and northern Australia, due to warmer than usual waters around the continent and more moisture-filled air being directed into eastern Australia. 

University of New South Wales, Newsroom, 8 March 2022:

At any one time, Earth’s atmosphere holds only about a week’s worth of rain. But rainfall and floods have devastated Australia’s eastern regions for weeks and more heavy rain is forecast. So where’s all this water coming from?

We recently investigated the physical processes driving rainfall in eastern Australia. By following moisture from the oceans to the land, we worked out exactly how three oceans feed water to the atmosphere, conspiring to deliver deluges of rain similar to what we’re seeing now.

Such research is important. A better understanding of how water moves through the atmosphere is vital to more accurately forecast severe weather and help communities prepare.

The task takes on greater urgency under climate change, when heavy rainfall and other weather extremes are expected to become more frequent and violent.

Big actors delivering rain

The past few months in eastern Australia have been very wet, including the rainiest November on record.

Then in February, heavy rain fell on already saturated catchments. In fact, parts of Australia received more than triple the rain expected at this time of year.

So what’s going on?

In the theatre that is Australia’s rainfall, there are some big actors – the so-called climate oscillations. They’re officially known as:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): this cycle comprises El Niño and its opposite, La Niña. ENSO involves temperature changes across the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting weather patterns around the world

Southern Annular Mode (SAM): the north-south movement of strong westerly winds over the Southern Ocean

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): changes in ocean temperatures and winds across the tropical Indian Ocean.

Like swings in a character’s mood, each climate mode has positive, negative and neutral phases. Each affect Australia’s weather in different ways.

ENSO’s negative phase, La Niña, brings wetter conditions to eastern Australia. The IOD’s negative phase, and SAM’s positive phase, can also bring more rain.

Going back in time

We studied what happens to the moisture supplying eastern Australian rainfall when these climate drivers are in their wet and dry phases.

We used a sophisticated model to trace moisture backwards in time: from where it fell as rain, back through the atmosphere to where it evaporated from.

We did this for every wet winter and spring day between 1979 and 2013.

This research was part of a broader study into where Australia’s rain comes from, and what changes moisture supply during both drought and heavy rain.

We found most rain that falls on eastern Australia comes from moisture evaporated from a nearby ocean. Typically, rain in eastern Australia comes from the Coral and Tasman seas. This is depicted in the strong blue colours in the figure below.

But interestingly, some water comes from as far as the Southern and Indian oceans, and some originates from nearby land areas, such as forests, bare soils, lakes and rivers.

Natural processes can alter the typical supply of moisture to the atmosphere, causing either droughts or floods.

Read the full article here.