CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY: I keep waiting for Northern NSW to get some really good news - this isn't it

A reputable study was published in September this year which raises some concerns for communities in Northern NSW. 

"Using large climate model ensembles to assess historical and future tropical cyclone activity along the Australian east coast" [Bruy`ere, C.L. et al, Sept 2022] is a collaborative effort supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), Insurance Australia Group Limited (Aust), Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University (Aust) and Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University (South Africa).

The message bottom line is that Australian East Coast Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are now anticipated to extend their range into south-east Queensland and on into Northern NSW as far south as the Clarence Valley and possibly Coffs Harbour City local government area.

At the same time the frequency of strong tropical storms and cyclones are expected to increase, their heavy rainfall areas to widen, intensify and in some instances their wind fields to remain over locations for longer periods. 

The following is an excerpt from the Introduction to the aforementioned study. 

"Building codes can be highly effective at reducing TC losses (Done et al., 2018). They are commonly designed to safeguard people from injury caused by structural failures (e.g., the Australian Wind Loading Standards - ASNZS1170.2).......

A collection of recent work demonstrates that Australian TC statistics are non-stationary. Holland and Bruyère (2014) detected an increasing proportion of the strongest storms. Kossin et al. (2020) found that the absolute numbers of intense storms have increased. Not only are the peak wind speeds increasing, but the latitudes of storm-lifetime peak winds have likely shifted poleward in this region (Kossin et al., 2014). Cyclone forward motion has also slowed down over Australia (Kossin, 2018), meaning that locations experience strong winds for longer, all other things being equal.

TC rainfall is also changing. Studies show heavier TC rain rates in some regions (e.g., Risser and Wehner 2017; Emanuel 2017). Bruyère et al. (2019) showed that when changes in thermodynamical conditions alone are considered (i.e., thermodynamic climate change scenarios), TCs penetrated much further inland with a marked expansion of the heavy rainfall area. Should these wind and rainfall trends continue (as indicated by Knutson et al., 2020; Walsh et al., 2016a; Lavender and Walsh 2011), this raises the prospect that current wind loading codes and flood planning zones may not protect people and property as well as they have in the past and may severely underperform in the future.

The region of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales (NSW) (referred to as the QLD-NSW sub-region hereafter) may be particularly vulnerable to these anticipated changes. QLD-NSW is located at the current southern limit of TC occurrence and, does not adhere to the stronger building codes implemented further north along the coast (Fig. 1). Consequently, Saffir Simpson scale intensities of high category 1 to low category 2 will exceed the wind loading standards for buildings in this region - designated wind loading region B. Any future southward shift or expansion of the current region of the most intense TCs would threaten structures built to current codes and land planning zones. Moreover, new structures with design lives of 50–100 years will need to account for these expected climate change effects and associated uncertainties." [my yellow highlighting]

NOTE: Click on image to enlarge

Fig. 1. Map indicating the South-West Pacific (SWP) search domain and the Gulf of Carpentaria (northern box) and QLD-NSW sub-region of interest (box around Brisbane). The colored areas indicate where the Australian wind loading standards apply. The wind-load standards for the regions are A: 45 m/s, B: 57 m/s, C: 70 m/s, and D: 87 m/s. The blue circles indicate select Geoscience Australia TC gates (refer to section 3). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

At this point in time it appears that the building code for housing (AS4055-2012) that is applied for most Northern NSW coastal zone housing has a requirement to be built to withstand a 0.2 second wind gust duration at 57m/s for the 500 year return period. This does not appear to be changing when the most recent version of the National Construction Code (NCC 2022) comes into force.

Perrottet and Toole faced with an approaching tidal wave of condemnation, retreated from their latest attempt to drive NSW koalas into species extinction

 

This was going to be the scheduled North Coast Voices post title today: "Dodgy duo Dom Perrottet and Paul Toole are hoping that NSW residents, ratepayers and voters will forget this act of political bastardry once the state parliament goes into recess until February 2023. How wrong they will be in many a coastal council area".

But then, with an eye to his political legacy, retiring NSW Christian Democrat MLC Fred Nile spoke out.....

The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 December 2022: 

The NSW government has been forced into a humiliating backdown in the latest koala wars after Christian Democrat MP Fred Nile refused to back its native forestry bill, guaranteeing it would have failed on the floor of parliament. Agriculture Minister Dugald Saunders confirmed late on Monday that the Nationals would pull the hugely divisive bill in a bid to avoid an embarrassing loss for the Coalition in the final sitting week of parliament before the March election. The death knell for the bill came when Nile ruled out support for changes to native forestry laws, which would have made it easier for landholders to remove trees.....

Without Nile’s support, the bill could not have passed the upper house and it was also likely to fail in the lower house because Nationals MP Geoff Provest told Nationals leader Paul Toole on Monday that he would not support the bill. Liberal MP Felicity Wilson also ruled out supporting the bill. Millionaire businessman and environmental crusader Geoff Cousins, who waged the high-profile campaign to stop the Gunns pulp mill in Tasmania during the 2007 federal election campaign, also delivered a blistering warning to the NSW government, saying he would “do everything I can to run a major campaign against the Perrottet government in the next election” in response to the bill. “I would liken the sort of campaign I would run to the Gunns pulp mill campaign,” Cousins, a former adviser to John Howard, said. “If they want to go up against that, that’s fine. But it would include a major advertising campaign and I would do everything I could to bring down a government that would put forward legislation like this.” .....

In addition to dissenting members of the NSW Parliament, it was obvious that individuals and communities all along the est. 1,973km long NSW mainland coastal zone and, as far inland as the Great Dividing Range, were prepared to resist the Perrottet Coalition Government's attempt to lock in destructive legislation ahead of the March 2023 state election. In what looked suspiciously like an erstatz insurance policy for their timber industry mates - just in case the Coalition lost the forthcoming state ballot.

Somewhat predictably, in this approach the Perrottet Government was aping the failed former Morrison Government and, thereby doing itself no favours.

BACKGROUND

Newly minted NSW National Party Leader & Deputy Premier Paul Toole 
and newly minted NSW Liberal Party Leader & Premier Dominic Perrottet. IMAGE: ABC News, 14 October 2021

 

Following in the footsteps of a disgraced Liberal premier and a disgraced Nationals deputy premier (both of whom resigned
office and left the NSW Parliament) it seems no lessons were learnt......

The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 November 2022, p.1:

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet faces a damaging internal battle in the final week of parliament as Liberals threaten to cross the floor over the revival of the so-called koala wars which almost tore apart the Coalition two years ago.

As NSW parliament sits for the last time before the March election, the bitter issue of protecting koala habitat could split the Coalition, with Liberals who face challenges from teal candidates fearing it would ignite a backlash against the government.

The Nationals have introduced a bill to make it easier for landholders to clear private native forestry without duplicate approval processes between state and local governments. However, critics have warned it could water down environmental regulation and destroy koala habitat.

Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court described revisiting the koala wars as a "gift" for the teal movement in NSW, which would seize on the NSW government's position in northern Sydney seats.

Holmes a Court said Perrottet had made three significant environmental missteps in recent weeks, which included committing to raising the Warragamba Dam wall and appointing former Sydney Hydro boss Paul Broad as a special adviser.

Broad, who was appointed by Perrottet while Energy Minister Matt Kean was overseas, has been a critic of NSW's energy road map, which provides long-term contracts for renewable generation and grid services. Broad has called the plan, devised by Kean, "fundamentally flawed". He also backed the former federal government in its push for a large new gas-fired power plant in the Hunter Valley.

"Until recently, it's been hard for the teals to find strong differentiation in states with almost-good-enough environmental credentials like Victoria and NSW," Holmes a Court said.

"Dominic Perrottet has handed the movement a gift through deciding to flood a UNESCO site with many significant Aboriginal sites, reopening the koala wars and putting Angus Taylor's gas man in the Premier's office."

Asked yesterday about Broad's appointment, Perrottet said he was "highly regarded, and his experience in water, engineering and infrastructure is second to none in this country".

Perrottet said Broad's remit included raising the Warragamba wall and ensuring the $3.5 billion Narrabri gas project was online as soon as possible.

The Coalition battled internal warfare over koala planning laws in 2020, when former deputy premier John Barilaro threatened to take his Nationals MPs to the crossbench if proposed new rules to protect an increased number of tree species home to koalas were adopted.

Then premier Gladys Berejiklian stared him down and Barilaro withdrew the threat.

The bill to change planning laws for private native forests will be debated his week and is likely to be particularly problematic for Liberal MP James Griffin, who is environment minister and holds the seat of Manly, which has a very active independents' group.

Several senior government sources said other at-risk Liberals, including North Shore MP Felicity Wilson and Port Macquarie MP Leslie Williams, are considering crossing the floor or abstaining. Nationals MP for Tweed Geoff Provest could abstain.

Wilson, Williams and Provest were contacted for comment.

In an indication of how damaging Wilson thinks the bill could be, she gave a private members' statement to parliament last week when she wanted her "support for a plan to transition the native forestry industry towards sustainable plantations" placed on the record……

Opposition environment spokeswoman Penny Sharpe said Labor would oppose the bill…...

Local Government NSW president Darriea Turley said the bill had been rushed into parliament without any consultation with local government.

"This bill undermines the crucial role councils play in the regulation of private forestry operations," Turley said. "It will have devastating impacts on native habitats, particularly for koalas and many threatened species."

Another time bomb left behind by a politically & fiscally incompetent current member of the World Wide Speakers Group and sometime Liberal MP for Cook, Scott John Morrison

 

Then Prime Minster Scott Morrison & Treasurer Josh Frydenberg - political mates and housemates before the Liberal-Nationals Coalition sank the ship of state. IMAGE: The Australian, 26 August 2020

 

On 5 July 2018 then Australian Treasurer & Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison unveiled his plan to overhaul the Goods & Services Tax (GST) state distribution scheme.

This involved changes which ‘would protect all taxpayers, update the grants commission process and deliver certainty to States and Territories. “This problem has been kicked down the road for too long and it is time we now got on and fixed it,” he said. “A fair and sustainable transition to a new equalisation standard will be ensured, through an additional, direct, and permanent Commonwealth boost to the pool of funds to be distributed among the States."

By 12 November 2018 the Australian Coalition Government now lead by Prime Minister Morrison introduced Treasury Laws Amendment (Making Sure Every State and Territory Gets Their Fair Share of GST) Bill 2018 which was duly passed by Parliament and became law on 29 November 2018.

On 25 February 2019 Treasurer John Frydenberg put his signature to this contentious document.

Thus a political and fiscal time bomb with a relatively long fuse was activated…...

The Age, 14 November 2022, p.3:

A deal put in place to placate Western Australia when its share of GST revenue was tumbling is on track to cost the nation's taxpayers 10 times more than forecast, helping drive up federal government debt and interest payments to record levels.

Originally pulled together by then-treasurer Scott Morrison in 2018 before being put through parliament by his successor, Josh Frydenberg, the deal that expected to cost $2.3 billion is now on track to cost more than $24 billion. [my yellow highlighting]

WA, which delivered four seats to Labor at the May election on the back of a 10.6 per cent swing, is vowing to fight to keep the arrangement, due to expire in 2026-27.

Morrison struck the deal at a time when WA's share of the tax pool had fallen to an all-time low of 30 cents for every dollar of GST raised within the state. Its iron ore royalties were effectively being redistributed among the other states and territories based on a Commonwealth Grants Commission formula that takes into account each state's revenue sources and expenses.

Under Morrison's deal, from 2022-23 WA must receive a minimum of 70 cents in the dollar before increasing to 75 cents in 2024-25. When the policy was put in place, it was expected iron ore prices would fall and WA's share of the GST pool would therefore rise. Instead, prices have soared.

The Morrison government ensured other states and territories wouldn't be worse off, which requires the top-up funding for the deal to come from outside the $82.5 billion GST pool.

It was originally forecast to cost federal taxpayers $2.3 billion over three years, including just $293 million in 2021-22, but the surge in iron ore prices has meant more top-ups and for longer.

The October budget revealed that last year, the deal cost $2.1 billion and is forecast to jump to $4.2 billion this financial year. By 2025-26, the cost of the entire deal is on track to reach $22.5 billion, with another $2-3 billion likely the year after that.

Throughout the entire period, the budget is expected to be in deficit, forcing the extra cash to be borrowed. In percentage terms, the blowout in cost is larger than the NDIS, aged care, health or defence.

Independent economist Chris Richardson said the deal had been ill-conceived from the beginning with the cost to be borne by future taxpayers.

He said all significant spending programs needed to be properly assessed, including the GST deal.

"Yes, the politics of it are difficult. But we have a whole host of other issues, like the NDIS, and the economics of them have to be dealt with," he said…….

The extra borrowing for the GST deal has contributed to the lift in gross debt, which on Friday reached a record $909.4 billion.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the cost of servicing the debt was getting more expensive and was the budget's fastest-growing expense. [my yellow highlighting]

NSW KOALA CONFERENCE - THE VANISHING: Science, Koala Carers and Politicians

 

Koala Conference- The Vanishing
29 October 2022
Group photograph
IMAGE: supplied

The growing community concern about the plight of koalas in NSW and the lack of effective government action to protect them led to an important koala conference being held in Coffs Harbour on Saturday October 29. The conference was organised by former MLC Catherine Cusack, and conservation organisations - NSW Nature Conservation Council (NCC), National Parks Association of NSW (NPA), the North East Forest Alliance (NEFA) and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).

The conference title - “The Vanishing” - highlighted the fact that koalas in this state are sliding towards extinction – an outcome which was a finding in the NSW Legislative Council’s comprehensive 2019-2020 inquiry “Koala Populations and Habitat in NSW”.

Conference Convener Catherine Cusack said, “Our koala populations have been devastated by drought, fire and disease. They are clinging on in fragments of habitat that continues to be reduced by housing development, poorly located infrastructure, logging and land clearing.”

The conference was attended in person by 180 people from around the state with a further 180 or so listening online.

Speakers included local first nations’ representatives (Gumbaynggirr), scientists, representatives from leading conservation groups, local campaigners from koala risk hotspots and state politicians.

Early in the proceedings three scientists provided information on results of their koala research.

Dr Steve Philips, an internationally recognised expert on koalas, who has been involved with their conservation for more than 40 years, discussed the decline in koala numbers in a range of areas he has studied. In these areas this decline occurred over a 30-year time frame and at the same rate in each area. Changing the species’ conservation status did not arrest the decline. He also discussed koalas preferred feed trees and pointed out that if these are taken from the landscape koalas will not exist in those areas. Dr Philips believes that doubling the current koala population by 2050 – a plan of the current NSW Government – is not feasible and will not happen. However, he emphasised that we have the knowledge to bring about a recovery.

Ecologist Dr Kara Youngentob is particularly interested in how plant nutritional qualities and other environmental factors influence the distribution and abundance of leaf eating animals like koalas. Her research has shown that there are differences in nutritional values of trees even of the same species and koalas will be more abundant where the nutritional value is higher. Koalas prefer big tree forests which remain cooler than regrowth forests. This has implications for their survival as climate change impacts grow.

Professor Mark Krockenberger who has worked on diseases of koalas for the last 25 years – particularly on cryptococcosis and chlamydiosis stated that disease drives population decline. He gave the example of the decline in numbers on the Liverpool Plains where Chlamydia is rampant and a major problem with that disease is that it causes infertility.

Koala carers and campaigners reported on their local situations and highlighted the continuing decline in koala numbers in their areas. They included Josie O’Connell (Bega Shire), Patricia Durman (South West Sydney), Sue Ashton (Port Macquarie), Robert Frend (Gunnedah), Lorraine Vass (Northern Rivers) and Paula Flack (Coffs region).

Important contributions were also made by key conservationists - Dailan Pugh (NEFA), Gary Dunnett (NPA), Dr Stuart Blanch (WWF) – as well as Cerin Loane (Environmental Defenders Office) and Dr Sally Townley (Deputy Mayor of Coffs Harbour).

Given the widespread view that there is a need for effective political action, the speeches by the politicians were of considerable interest.

Penny Sharpe MLC, Labor’s Shadow Environment Minister, spoke of the former Labor Government’s record on the creation of national parks and their native vegetation legislation. Unsurprisingly she was very critical of the current government’s policy. Sharpe condemned its failure to take action on the Natural Resources Commission report recommending changes to operations in State Forests which were hit hard by the 2019-2020 bushfires. She also said the Government’s latest koala strategy would oversee further decline in koalas rather than being a plan to stabilise NSW populations. On a more positive note, she stated that that the report from the Legislative Council koala inquiry provided many good suggestions and that if Labor won government, she promised they would act as quickly as possible to implement a recovery plan.

James Griffin MP, Liberal Member for Manly, Minister for the Environment, was the second politician to address the gathering. Predictably his address claimed that his Government’s actions would see an improvement in koala numbers.

Cate Faehrmann MLC (Greens) spoke about the importance of the koala inquiry which she chaired. She believes the money the Government has announced for their koala plan would be much better being directed to saving koala habitat which is a major driver of the species’ decline. Faehrmann supports phasing out logging in public native forests and wants the koala inquiry recommendations to be used to put pressure on candidates in the State Election in March.

The final political speaker was former Liberal MLC Catherine Cusack who was another member of the Legislative Council committee which conducted the koala inquiry. As a North Coast resident, she understands only too well how koalas are under threat in this region. She spoke about her experience as a member of the current NSW Government in trying to get effective action to protect them from extinction. Along with many others concerned about koala survival, she was hopeful that her government would respond well to the koala inquiry recommendations. 

Initially the Inquiry prediction that koalas in NSW were heading for extinction by 2050, put the Government under pressure to improve koala protection. However, the Nationals, the Liberals’ coalition partners, jibbed at placing restrictions on rural landholders and the so-called “Koala Wars” began. Leading players were former Nationals leader John Barilaro and local North Coast Nationals MPs including Member for Clarence, Chris Gulaptis. After initially standing up to the Nationals’ demands, the Government caved in and weakened the legislation. Cusack suspects this was the result of a deal between the coalition partners where the Liberals weakened their legislation in exchange for the Nationals’ acceptance of the Liberals’ climate legislation plans.

Cusack now believes that individual action by politicians will not bring change and what is required is collective action by citizens. If this collective action is large enough, it will force politicians to act much more effectively. The Coffs Harbour conference was held as a way of galvanising this collective citizen reaction in the lead up to the state election on March 3rd, 2023.

As current government action will not save koalas from extinction in NSW by 2050 and, as we have the knowledge to bring about a recovery, the galvanising of community action before the state election is vitally important.

Leonie Blain

Northern Rivers

It seems that people are voting with their feet when it comes to New South Wales - this state experienced an unprecedented exodus of its residents to other states and territories in the last five years

 

New South Wales was home to 8,072,163 men, women and children or 31.8 per cent of the Australian population according to the August 2021 national census.

The state's total population had grown by 591,935 people since the previous census in 2016.

It was also the state that in the five years before the 2021 Census lost the most people to migration to other states and territories, 102,200 to be exact.

The state’s net migration was an unprecedented drop. No other state or territory experience a net migration as large – in fact net migration for QLD exceeded +100,000 people, which was an unprecedented jump.

Click on image to enlarge

When it came to internal migration within New South Wales over the same five years there was a trasfer of population from Sydney to regional areas.

Of all the Australian capital cities, Sydney experienced the biggest net loss (-49,100), which was 0.9% of the city’s population. Unsurprisingly Brisbane showed a rising net gain in population from internal migration.

In Northern NSW.......

Between August 2016 and August 2021 the ABS SA4 statistical area Richmond-Tweed saw 34,527 people arriving and 29,370 leaving, resulting in a net population gain from movement into the area of 5,157 people.

Between August 2020 and August 2021 the net population gain from movement into the area was 558 people.

The ABS SA4 statistical area Coffs-Grafton in that same five year period saw 19,249 people moving into the area and 16,374 leaving, resulting in a net population gain from movement into the area of 2,875 people.

Between August 2020 and August 2021 the net population gain from movement into the Coffs-Grafton area was only 436 people.

Tweet of the Week

 

A Twitter thread on the subject of a NSW local government council which since its first sitting in 2022 has beggared belief.....

via Twitter account @worldzonfire

Cartoons of the Week

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