CLIMATE CRISIS ANALYSIS: “2023 has broken so many records that a number of new hypotheses, including the dawn of a new phase in the global warming rate, have been floated "

 

Starting 2024 the way we ended 2023.........

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE PERSPECTIVE

ABC News (Australia), 8 February 2024:

Global temperatures through January were the warmest on record at 1.66 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The month was 0.12C above the previous warmest January in 2020 and extends the run of record warm months to eight, following similar unprecedented temperatures from June to December last year.

Monthly Global Temperature Anomaly

Relative to pre-industrial 1850-1900 baseline

The greatest anomalies last month were seen across eastern Canada and south-west Asia where temperatures were nearly 5C above the 1991-2020 average.

Australia's mean was 1.54C above the 1961-1990 baseline average, making it the country's third warmest January on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The run of abnormal heat has now lifted the 12-month for the first time.

With the target now temporarily breached, a permanent rise above 1.5C is now projected to arrive in less than 10 years.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the agency was "sounding the alarm" that the world would "breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency".

Oceans simmering - warm enough for a tropical cyclone off the NSW coast

The average global sea surface temperature (SST) was also at unprecedented levels last month, a staggering 0.26C warmer than the previous January record in 2016 and only 0.01°C off the all-time record from August 2023.

The heat observed in the world's oceans has been a notable feature of the climate during the past year – passing global monthly records for 10 consecutive months.

The record run is almost certain to reach 11 months as the Earth's water temperature is currently running at levels well beyond all previous years — daily SSTs climbed to 21.05C this week, more than 0.2C above the previous February high and above the previous all-time high of 21.02C from August 2023.

The warm global waters are also being felt off Australia's east coast.

Data from the Climate Change Institute shows parts of the northern Tasman Sea are currently as much as 3C above average at around 28C - equal to a typical summer water temperature off the tropical Queensland coast.

The waters are so warm right now off the NSW north coast they could theoretically support the formation of a tropical cyclone, exceeding the threshold for development of 26.5C.

While enough evaporation is occurring for a cyclone to form off the NSW coast, they require numerous additional ingredients which are currently absent.

Climate change the main driver of records

Historical data shows than even though El Niño increases global temperatures, the trend during the past 12 months is well outside the typical warming.

"Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing," Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service Samantha Burgess said.

However, considering the year after El Niño forms is typically warmer than the previous year, there is a good chance 2024 will end up beating the recent record warm 2023.

Out of the past 15 El Niño episodes, 13 led to a rise in the Earth's air temperature in the second year.

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PERSPECTIVE

The Guardian (UK), 7 February 2024:

From deadly floods in California to devastating fires in Chile, scientists say the world is not prepared for the climate disasters that are hitting with increasing frequency as human-driven global heating continues to break records.

The hottest year in history has been followed by the warmest ever January. Many regions in the northern hemisphere are sweltering in heatwaves that would be more normal in June. Marine scientists are shocked by the prolonged and intense heat at the surface of the oceans.

Scientists say the extreme heat is mostly the result of human activity, such as the burning of oil, gas and coal and the cutting down of forests. This has been amplified by natural factors, particularly the El Niño – a phenomenon associated with Pacific Ocean warming – that started last year and is expected to continue until spring at the earliest.

This year has a one in three chance of being even hotter than last year’s record, according to the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The higher the global temperature, the greater the risk of fires and flooding. This month alone has seen two grim records of such climate-related disasters.

The Chilean president, Gabriel Boric, has declared two days of national mourning after the country’s deadliest ever forest fires claimed more than 120 lives in the Valparaíso region. This follows a decade-long drought in the area and a shift from diverse natural forests, which are more resilient to fire, to monoculture plantations, which are more vulnerable.

In the US, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, announced a state of emergency as an “atmospheric river” – which was supercharged by the unusually warm Pacific Ocean – dumped unprecedented amounts of rain on San Diego and neighbouring districts, killing at least three people.

Attribution studies will be needed to ascertain the precise extent to which these particular calamities were drive by human-driven climate disruption, but they are in line with a broader trend towards increasingly severe impacts.

“Fuelled by extreme weather and climate extremes, the frequency of climate-related disasters has dramatically risen in recent years,” said Raul Cordero, a climate professor at the University of Groningen and the University of Santiago. “In some regions of the world, we are facing climate-fuelled disasters for which we are not prepared, and it is unlikely that we will be able to fully adapt to them.”

Richard Betts, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in the UK, said many extremes, including longer heatwaves, heavier rainfall, increased drought and more fire weather, were becoming more severe due to human-caused climate change.

“We can still limit the extent to which extremes get worse if we urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero – but with global emissions still rising, it’s hard not to be increasingly concerned about how we will deal with what’s coming,” Betts said. “We already need to adapt to the changes that we’ve already caused, and adaptation will become increasingly difficult the longer we leave it to reduce emissions.”

Of prime concern is what is happening to the oceans, which cover 71% of the planet and absorb most of the excess heat from global warming. In a letter published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Science last month, a group of scientists warned that sea surface temperatures last year were “off the chart”, with dire implications for atmospheric regulation and storm intensity.....

Guglielmo said scientists were now considering risks that had been unthinkable until recently. “2023 has broken so many records that a number of new hypotheses, including the dawn of a new phase in the global warming rate, have been floated. These hypotheses were not nearly as prevalent a year ago.”

Chair of ACTU Inquiry into Price Gouging and Unfair Practices does some plain talking about the relationship between 'intractable inflation' & the misuse of corporate power

Finally. A dark uncomfortable nexus that federal and state governments have tried to ignore, is exposed to the light of day.

INQUIRY INTO PRICE GOUGING AND UNFAIR

PRICING PRACTICES, Final report, February 2024

FOREWORD

I have welcomed the opportunity to chair this inquiry

for three reasons.

Firstly, there has been much discussion about

inflation and its causes including monetary and

fiscal policy, international factors, wages, supply

chain disruption and war. However, there is hardly

any discussion that looks at the actual prices

charged to consumers, the processes by which

they are set, the profit margins and their possible

contribution to inflation.

Secondly, there is also much discussion about

market power and its harms. But there is very little

discussion of any policies or actions that might be

taken to deal with the main harm: high prices.

Unreasonably high prices are not prohibited by

competition law. The ACCC, worthy though it is,

is restricted to looking at unlawful anti-competitive

agreements - for example, when competitors agree

on prices. If two firms, for example, coordinate

their prices without any illegal communication,

that behaviour is outside the scope of the Act. If

governments take actions which have the effect of

raising prices, that is also outside the scope of the

Australian Competition and Consumer Act.

In short, firms are free to charge as much as they

like. They can price gouge lawfully as long as there

is no unlawful collusion. This has given rise to a

policy gap – there is no set of government policies

about excessive prices. This report provides an

opportunity to examine whether this should be the

case at a time when Australians are so concerned

about the cost of living and the impact of prices on

their lives.

Thirdly, I am pleased to be engaged with the ACTU

in a prices inquiry because the concern of the Trade

Union movement is the impact of prices on the

costs of living of ordinary Australians. It has been

valuable to hear from ordinary people in this inquiry

rather than the ‘usual suspects’ that is businesses

and business organisations making economic

submissions about their prices.

Traditionally, the term price gouging has referred

to situations where sellers exploit a shortage of

essential goods and services to raise prices to

excessive levels. However, in the public mind

there is a wider meaning of the term: prices that

significantly exceed levels that would occur if there

was competition. Such prices substantially exceed

costs of supply and a reasonable level of profit.

What we have seen over recent years is a dramatic

increase in costs paid by consumers.

Some of the highest price increases occur in sectors which are characterised by having disproportionate market power, a level of power over their consumers, or a level of monopsony power over their supply chain and workforce.

At the same time as consumers experience significant increases in costs. Across food and grocery, energy, and financial services corporate profits are up.

Normally, inflation is a distributed experience, and the experience of those without market power being both squeezed on the supply and demand side is evidence of that. Some of Australia’s largest businesses, often supplying inelastic goods, are maintaining or even increasing margins in response to the global inflationary  episode.

This is a situation that warrants further investigation.

In particular, it warrants investigation of the state of competition in Australia and of the associated regulatory settings and to learn from the experience of ordinary people as to the impact of these matters.

In short, if there is a high price, it usually pays to investigate its causes – typically a lack of competition or a market shortcoming – and possible remedies.

During this inquiry for example it was observed that electric vehicle prices in New Zealand are considerably lower than in Australia. In probing the reasons, it was found that the difference is due to a little known unwarranted import restriction i Australia that does not apply in New Zealand. This explains why prices on electric vehicles are much higher than they should be.

The inquiry is very timely.

The world is facing an inflationary episode. The goal of central banks and governments across the world is to drive down the rate of inflation to a more sustainable level. While there has been an enormous amount of public discourse on the contribution of wages and employment to inflation, too little discussion has been on the role price setters have on broader inflation outcomes.

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michelle Bullock, has noted that the inflation Australia is experiencing now is ‘homegrown.’ This declaration makes the examination of price-setting behaviour by domestic firms more important, as we cannot simply say that prices have increased elsewhere and are simply being passed on. The exercise of market power and limits on competition in specific markets have exacerbated what began as a global problem.

This inquiry has conducted 5 public hearings, received over 750 public submissions and more than 20 detailed contributions from academics, experts, think tanks, unions, businesses, and thei representatives.

These diverse perspectives are vital for a comprehensive understanding of the issues. Th public hearings in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Cairns, and Canberra have allowed us to directly engage with the community and hear a wide range of experiences and insights. These voluntary contributions have deeply enriched the inquiry.

As I stated when I agreed to conduct this inquiry, this is a serious examination of prices and competition in Australia.

This report summarises the key policy issues and draws on the submissions to develop a set of recommendations  on price and competition policy which, if adopted, would substantially improve competition and decrease the price pressure faced by ordinary families.

Prof. Allan Fels AO

Chair

The full 80 page report can be read online and downloaded at:

https://pricegouginginquiry.actu.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02InquiryIntoPriceGouging_Report_web.pdf

Excerpt from Pages 5-6 of the report:

BUSINESS PRICING PRACTICES

The report analyses a selection of exploitative business pricing practices that enable the extraction of extra dollars from consumers in a way that would not be possible in markets that are competitive, properly informed and that enable overcharged consumers to readily switch from one supplier to another.

The fact that there is a quite widespread lack of competition in Australian markets means that pricing practices that might be accepted in very competitive markets are unduly exploitative of consumers in that setting.

Loyalty taxes set initial prices low and then sharply increase them in subsequent years when consumers cannot easily detect, question, or renegotiate them and where the ‘transaction costs’ of changing to other competitors are high. Examples come from banking, insurance, energy, and other areas. Loyalty schemes are often low cost means of retaining and exploiting consumers by providing them with low value rewards of dubious benefit. These schemes are also often badly run.

Drip pricing where firms only advertise part of a product’s price and reveal other prices later as the customer goes through the buying process is spreading including in airlines, accommodation, entertainment, pre-paid phone charges, credit cards and others.

Excuse-flation where general inflation provides camouflage for businesses to raise prices without justification is also more prevalent in the current environment. As inflation starts to fall excessive inflationary expectations and future cost increases can be built into prices.

Confusion pricing involves confusing consumers with a myriad of complex price structures and plan making price comparisons difficult and dulling price competition. It occurs more and more in areas such as telecommunications, financial or maintenance services and other fields.

Asymmetric or ‘rockets and feathers’ pricing is of much concern in the current environment especially as inflation is starting to come down. When costs rise prices go up quickly ‘like a rocket’ but when costs fall prices fall slowly ‘like a feather falling to the ground’. This practice of delaying price falls when costs have fallen can be very profitable for businesses. A recent example concerned meat prices when prices paid to farmers for lamb fell but retail prices did not, at least until there was publicity including from this inquiry about the delay.

Algorithmic pricing is the practice of using algorithms to set prices automatically (but taking account of competitor responses) raises issues about whether this reduces price competition and is analogous to cartel pricing.

Price discrimination which in its simplest form involves charging different consumers different prices for the same product enables businesses to set prices according to how much each consumer is willing and able to pay. It takes many forms. It is enabled by a lack of competition. If there were competition charging high prices to customers who wish to or have to pay higher prices would not be possible because competitors would bring those prices down to normal levels. This report identifies a number of examples ranging from banks (better rates from customers likely to leave them), electricity (better prices for business customers than for consumers even allowing for lower costs of supply) and medical specialists which offer vastly different prices for near identical services. Of particular concern is the rise of much greater use of price discrimination enabled by the rise of digital platforms, new technology, detailed customer data and sophisticated profit maximising pricing methodologies.

These practices all result from an economy which is insufficiently competitive and gives room for businesses to engage in exploitative pricing practices.

There is a case for a much more active public policy for investigating and analysing practices that operate at unwarranted cost to customers.

Climate Change Australia 2024 - the elephant in the room that all three tiers of Australian government are failing to address - the indoor heat in metropolitan & regional urban areas

 

Although science had been warning about a marked global land-sea surface warming trend for longer, it wasn't until around 1972 that a global conversation about anthropomorphic global warming or climate change began.

This conversation began to formalize under the auspices of the United Nations and by 1988 its member states, including Australia, were broad brush level aware of the timeline and scale science was predicting.

Over the years since, science has been pointing at Australia when calculating where the impacts of climate change would first be felt in a recognizable and widespread way.

Between 1983 and 2022 there had been four Liberal Party prime ministers leading federal Coalition governments setting national policy and legislation (across a combined of total of just over 20 years) and four Labor prime minister leading federal Labor governments setting national policy and legislation (across a combined of total of just over 18 years).

Over that same 39 year time frame New South Wales has had six Liberal premiers and six Labor premiers.

During all these years it was only between 2007 to 2012 that an Australian federal government could be seen as genuinely attempting (and often failing) to set the nation on the path to reduce the nation's CO2-e emissions.

Since 22 May 2022 Australia has once more a Labor prime minister and federal government setting national policy and legislation for the last 625 days, as well as another NSW Labor state premier and government setting state policy and legislation for the last 316 days.

One of the early Albanese Government decisions was to create the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW), with the ministers having portfolio responsibility identified as Chris Bowen, Minister for Climate Change and Energy & Tanya Plibersek, Minister for the Environment and Water.

The webpage transcript excerpt set at the end of this post is one aspect of information shared online by the DCCEEW which is barely mentioned by the media or NSW federal & state members of their respective parliaments.

It is certainly not information which has translated into action at state or local government planning level in any meaningful way in New South Wales.

This was New South Wales between 1 January to 5 February 2024:

Click on images to enlarge

This was the Australian Bureau of Meteorology NSW Heatwave Map on 3 February 2024:

Look around your town or village and count how many houses built in the last 20 years which appear to have been constructed to a design that will be likely to cope with the predicted increasing number of  days per year of maximum heatwave conditions of 35°C and over.

If your count is so low in the streets near you that it shocks, perhaps now is the time to insist that at federal, state and local government level a new mandatory building code be implemented which requires as part of development consent conditions:  (i) passive building design; (ii) indoor temperature-mitigating building material use; and (iv) subdivisions layouts and streetscapes which avoid heat island effects.

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (est. July 2022), Your Home, "Australia's Guide To Environmentally Adaptable Homes", excerpt:

Designing for climate change

You can design or renovate your home to take into account the sort of climate impacts you expect to be most relevant for your area.

Temperature increase and heatwaves

One of the main expected effects of global climate change across Australia is increasing temperatures and a greater number of extremely hot days (CSIRO and BOM 2020). Australian households need to consider how they can adapt to maintain comfort, manage household energy costs, and reduce the risk of heat stress and heat-related illness and mortality.

The need to keep your home cool during the summer months will be greater. On the other hand, there should be less need to heat the home in winter. Good passive design can lessen the need to rely on air-conditioners and help to capture the savings from lowered heating energy needs.

Consider the impact of increased numbers of heatwaves in your region. Over the past several decades, heatwaves have increased in duration, frequency and intensity in many parts of Australia (Steffen et al. 2019). New homes are not typically constructed to provide maximum protection from heatwaves as standard. In urban areas, tree canopy cover is decreasing as development intensifies. Urban areas may be particularly prone to heatwave conditions because of the ‘heat island’ effect, in which the abundance of heat-absorbing materials such as concrete, and lack of vegetation, increases their temperature compared with the surrounding area. Good tree canopy and other vegetation around your home and neighbourhood can reduce the impact of the urban heat island effect (see Green roofs and walls).

In addition, electricity demand rises sharply during heatwaves because of increased air-conditioning usage, contributing to blackouts. Excess peak demand drives up electricity prices, making air-conditioning use during heatwaves too expensive for some low-income households.

The NCC heating and cooling load limits under the NatHERS compliance pathway assist to keep homes at a comfortable temperature year-round. The load limits have been developed using the 2022 NatHERS climate files based on historical weather data, and the requirements change depending on which climate zone the home is built in.....

Tip

In the early stage of design, decide if your home will be air-conditioned, naturally ventilated, or a combination. This will affect further design decisions including the type and level of insulation.

Overall, adapting to cope with increased temperatures requires appropriate heat-resistant building materials and design. Key design strategies include:

• orientating living rooms appropriately and using shading to minimise summer heat gain

• using thermal mass appropriately

• locating bedrooms in the coolest part of the building and using insulation, shading and so on to ensure comfortable temperatures for sleeping

• providing opportunities for night-time ventilation, including natural ventilation and mechanical systems

• using light-coloured roofs and ‘cool roof’ technology (specially designed roofing materials and coatings with high solar reflectance and thermal emittance)

• creating a ‘cool retreat’ – a portion of the dwelling designed to provide comfort during heatwave periods. This could be a shaded, ventilated room or basement that is well insulated and able to be closed off from warmer parts of the house so it can be efficiently air-conditioned

• using cooling technologies powered by renewable energy

• using landscape to decrease the need for cooling (for example, by shading, channelling cool breezes, lowering surface temperatures).

Refer to Passive cooling for more information on cooling design strategies....     [my yellow highlighting]

It appears that Peter Dutton's drive to label Labor's proposed amended Stage 3 Tax Cuts as "a betrayal" and his accusation that the PM was "lying to the public" have fallen on predominately deaf ears across the national electorate

The Australian's Newspoll of 4 February 2024 was published Monday 5 February.

This was the first Newspoll of 2024 after a seven week gap since previous polling in December 2023.

The published results are based on a survey of 1,245 voters who were surveyed between Wednesday, 31 January and Saturday, 3 February 2024.

PRIMARY VOTE

Labor (sitting federal government) — 34 (up 1)

Coalition (L-NP opposition) — 36 (no change)

The Greens — 12 (down 1)

One Nation — 7 (no change)

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Labor — 52 (no change)

Coalition — 48 (no change)

PREFFERED PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese (current incumbent) — 46 (no change)

Peter Dutton (current opposition leader) — 35 (no change)

Uncommitted — 19 (no change)

APPROVAL RATING

Albanese:

Approve 42 (no change)

Disapprove 51 (up 1)

Dutton:

Approve 37 (down 2)

Disapprove 50 (up 2)

PROPOSAL TO AMEND STAGE 3 TAX CUTS

IMAGE: via @GrogsGamut Click on image to enlarge

According to The Australian's Page One on 5 February, "Mr Albanese has said the tax cuts were aimed at Middle Australia. This was supported by the poll results, which showed that 43 per cent of 35- to 49-year-olds said they would be better off and 44 per cent of 50- to 64-year-olds agreeing they would benefit....

The Newspoll showed female voters were significantly more likely to support the tax cuts than men: 65-59 per cent.

Those aged between 50 and 64 were also the most supportive of the change"

The Australian Parliament resumed on Tuesday 5 January, with the government planning to introduce legislation to replace the stage three tax cuts with a new tax rate table

Hopefully the government's amendments will pass unopposed and unamended by the Liberal-Nationals Coalition.

If for no other reason than Morrison's Treasury Laws Amendment in 2019 will no longer survive to fulfil its unofficial alternative title and descriptions: “Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Relief So Working Australians Keep More Of Their Money But Not For A Really Long Time) Bill 2019” aka "a tax package that is both fiscally irresponsible and unfair", "unfair and unjust", "a con job" making "inequality worse".

Sources:

Australian Parliament, Hansard, June 2018 to July 2019

9 News, 25.01.24

The Daily Telegraph, 26.01.24

AAP General Newswire, 04.02.24

The Australian, 05.02.24

Ghost Who Votes (@GhostWhoVotes), 05.02.24

Grog's Gamut (@GrogsGamut), 05.02.24