El Niño persists and although it is likely to disappear by May 2024 it may become harder to reliably predict what will follow in the future

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 5 March 2024

Neutral ENSO likely during autumn

El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.

Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Niño state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.

International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.

Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50% of El Niño events have been followed by an ENSO-neutral year, and 40 to 50% have been followed by La Niña. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years. The oceans have been the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may impact future predictions of ENSO events, if based solely on historical climate variability.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April. This is because the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean changing wind patterns and preventing the IOD pattern from forming.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral, as of 3 March. Forecasts indicate SAM will remain neutral over the coming fortnight.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the eastern Indian Ocean. The MJO is forecast to move into the Maritime Continent in the coming days and progress eastwards towards the Western Pacific over the coming fortnight. When the MJO is in the eastern Indian Ocean, increased cloudiness tends to occur over the eastern Indian Ocean and western parts of South East Asia. As the MJO shifts into the Maritime Continent, increased cloudiness tends to occur over parts of the far north of Australia and the islands of South East Asia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

The annual global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record, with Copernicus reporting that it was 1.52 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. However, this does not mean that the 1.5 °C target referred to in the Paris Agreement has been exceeded as the magnitude of global warming is assessed using multi-year averages, and this is only one 12-month period.

Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23 °C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during the wet season. April to October rainfall has declined across southern Australia in recent decades, due to a combination of long-term natural variability and changes in atmospheric circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

[my yellow highlighting]

Cartoon of the Week

Cathy Wilcox

 

Tweet of the Week

 

When you grow up surrounded by perpetrators who think they’re always victims because of past mass trauma you know exactly what they’re capable of https://t.co/sQ3WZwWUQn

— Asher Wolf (@Asher_Wolf) March 5, 2024

International Womens Day 2024: So how is female suffrage getting along in Australia?

 

United Nations banner

So how is female suffrage getting along in Australia?

After federation came into effect and the Commonwealth of Australia began its life in January 1901, the first federal parliament contained no women as elected representatives.

It wasn't until 1902 that Commonwealth Franchise Act established equal suffrage at a federal, allowing adult women the right to vote in federal elections and elect members to the House of Representatives and the Senate.

By 1903 women began to stand for federal election - as independents or as candidates for minor parties as neither the forerunners of the Liberal Party of Australia or the Australian Labor Party would support woen candidates.

It took another forty years before the first two women were elected - Enid Lyons, the Liberal MP for Darwin (Tas) and Dorothy Tagney Labor Senator for West Australia.

Both women entered a Parliament House which since its erection in 1927 had been totally devoid of toilets set aside for female members of parliament. [National Museum Australia, "First women in parliament", 2024]

For another forty years between 1946 to 1986 another 6 women MPs and 26 women senators came and went in the federal electoral cycles. A woefully small number. [Australian Parliament website, "Women parliamentarians in Australia 1921-2020", December 2020]

In May 2010 first federal Labor elected & then in August the national electorate endorsed the first female prime minister of Australia. In the federal government ministry, as at the end of June 2010, there were nine female ministers and parliamentary secretaries (representing 23% of ministers and parliamentary secretaries), including the Prime Minister The Hon Julia Gillard MP and a further three who were Cabinet members. Around 17% of shadow ministerial and parliamentary secretary positions were held by women [ABS, Measures of Australia's Progress, 2010]

However, it took until 2014 before women made up 26.7 per cent of the House of Representatives and 38.2 per cent of the Senate.

Now in 2024 the gender landscape in the Australian Parliament stands thus......

A total of 37 of the 78 Labor Government MPs in the Australian House of Representatives are women. That number represents 47.53 per cent of all those sitting on the government benches in the Lower House and 63.79 per cent of all federal women MPs in 2024.

A total of 17 of the 25 Labor Government senators in the Australian Senate are women. That number represents 68 percent of all those sitting on government benches in the Upper House and 40.7 per cent of all women senators in 2024.

Women in the Albanese Labor Government make up a combined total of 24 per cent of all MPs and Senators in the Australian Parliament. While women of all political persuasions comprise 44.44 percent of all parliamentarians sitting in the Australian Parliament in 2024. [Australia Parliament website, March 2024]

By December 2023 17,721,975 Australian citizens over the age of 18 years were enrolled to vote and the enrolment rate was 98 per cent. Historically overall voter turnout at elections is high. However, if the trend since 1996 holds, slightly more female registered voters are likely to turnout to vote than male voters at a federal general election.

In June 2023 the Australian estimated resident population numbered 26,638,544 individuals of which est. 50.35 per cent were female. [ABS, National state and territory population, June 2023]

It has only taken women 123 years to get to less than half the elected political representation their population demographic suggests they are entitled to expect.

Climate Council sounding the alarm on a severe bleaching event unfolding across more than 1,100kms of the Great Barrier Reef from Lizard Island to the Keppel Islands

 

Coral Bleaching, Heron Island
Great Barrier Reef
IMAGE: Divers for Climate, February 2024
Climate Council

Climate pollution is “cooking” the Reef with law reform needed

Climate Council

MEDIA RELEASE TUESDAY 5 MARCH 2024

THE CLIMATE COUNCIL is sounding the alarm on a severe bleaching event unfolding across the Great Barrier Reef, with new vision showing the damage that stretches more than 1100 kilometres from Lizard Island to the Keppel Islands.

Marine heatwaves are bleaching swathes of the Southern Great Barrier reef white, which have brought direct observers to tears. With an ominous marine forecast for the coming weeks, authorities could declare another mass bleaching event.

The Reef, a cherished global icon and home to diverse marine life and a cornerstone of Australian natural heritage, faces repeated and escalating threats from climate pollution, caused by the burning of coal, oil, and gas, including more frequent and severe marine heatwaves.

Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said: “Relentless pollution from coal, oil and gas is Australia’s number one environmental problem and it’s literally cooking the Reef. Our environmental protection laws are outdated and in desperate need of an overhaul to prevent new reef-destroying gas and coal projects.

“At least five coal and gas projects have been waved through under our outdated law by the Federal Government since it was elected, and more than 20 other highly polluting proposals are sitting on the Environment Minister's desk right now. These projects will keep being waved through without stronger laws, endangering our Reef, all marine life and the livelihoods of Queenslanders who depend on a healthy, vibrant reef.

“Australians expect our national environment law will protect the precious natural environments like the Great Barrier Reef, and the numerous communities that depend upon it - not destroy them. Unless this law is fixed to make climate pollution a core consideration, the Great Barrier Reef will continue to deteriorate before our children’s eyes.”

Climate Councillor Professor Lesley Hughes said: "As ocean temperatures continue to increase, our precious Great Barrier Reef is in grave danger. The composition and diversity of our once mighty Reef has already been changed after repeated marine heatwaves and mass bleaching events driven by the relentless burning of coal, oil and gas. Our focus must be on limiting further harm as much as possible.

“Australians understand the Reef is irreplaceable. Many Queensland workers and communities rely directly on it for their livelihoods, and every one of us depends on a healthy ocean. Scientists and tour operators are being brought to tears by what they’re observing.

“The Reef can be restored, but it needs at least a decade to recover from a severe bleaching event, and the only way to ensure that can happen is to rapidly reduce climate pollution from coal, oil and gas. The only way to safeguard the Great Barrier Reef as well as everyone and everything that depends on it is to cut climate pollution at the source."

Dr Dean Miller, Climate Council Fellow and reef expert said: "We're seeing the most vulnerable corals to heat stress start bleaching along the length of the Great Barrier Reef, which is alarming.

“It's not just about how many corals are bleaching, but that the ones most at risk are suffering. This stress is affecting corals of all sizes, from the largest ones that have survived past bleaching events to the smallest, youngest corals.

“If the heat stress continues, we'll see more widespread bleaching affecting a higher diversity of coral species, which is a major concern for the reef's health and ultimately its resilience."

For a closer look at the impacts of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef, explore our collection of recently recorded footage.

The Climate Council is Australia’s leading community-funded climate change communications organisation. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community.

For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au

Or follow us on social media: facebook.com/climatecouncil and twitter.com/climatecouncil

What is happening on the Great Barrier Reef is not something concerned people on the NSW far north coast can ignore. In addition to the rich marine biodiversity along its est. 2,300km length, the southern section of the Great Barrier Reef as a feeding and breeding ground for edible fish forms part of the sustainability cycle for our regional wild caught fisheries. Keppel Island is less than 700kms from the Clarence Coast fishery, perhaps the largest estuary-ocean fishery in New South Wales. 

How one e-conveyancing firm ranks NSW coastal erosion, flooding and bushfire risks from 2023-2043

 

In its own words, InfoTrack is a leading SaaS technology innovator and has been the pioneer of e-conveyancing since 2000....From the moment a title search is performed on a property to be listed for sale through to settlement, InfoTrack’s platform transforms plain text into intelligent data that moves seamlessly between the real estate agent, the lawyer, the mortgagee and the seller.

Since November 2023 InfoTrack has been sending out media releases concerning current and expected climate change impacts most often mentioned in coastal zones - erosion, flooding and bushfires:

# From the Harbour to the Hunter, the Northern Beaches tots on the NSW coastal zone the Northern Rivers, the New South Wales suburbs most impacted by coastal erosion have been revealed, along with the 20 locations to be worst affected in the future;

# Rounding out the top five are Northern New South Wales’ Moree at number two, the Central West’s Forbes at number three, Walgett in the State’s North at number four, and the Riverina’s Moama at five.

Popular tourist locations also feature – the beautiful coastal town of Yamba, a mecca with holidaymakers, is named at number eight, Grafton in the Northern Rivers comes in at number 13, with bustling Port Macquarie, on the mid north coast, at number 15. The Central Western town of Dubbo sneaks in at number 20 on the list.....

“The data and models use high-resolution topographical data, detailed land cover information, and advanced weather models to accurately simulate flood depths and extents,” Mr Montagnani said.

“This comprehensive evaluation, provided by Royal HaskoningDHV’s division Twinn, encompasses various scenarios, including surface water, river, and tidal flooding, and integrates state-of-the-art climate models to provide flood risk assessments in the context of climate change.”

Interestingly, all the suburbs listed as most at risk now, remain the most at-risk decades from now.

Grafton is slightly more at risk of flooding in the future, going from 13 on the list of suburbs affected by flooding now, to 12 on the list of suburbs most impacted in 30 years, effectively swapping places with Condobolin; and

# Off the back of sweltering temperatures across New South Wales, new data has been released naming the top 20 suburbs most impacted by bushfires now, along with the locations to be most affected in the future.

Blue Mountains National Park comes in at number one currently, with Colo Vale in the Southern Highlands, and Booligal in the Riverina rounding out the top three, according to Groundsure ClimateIndex™ reports, available through InfoTrack.

Also making the Top 20 are popular Blue Mountains suburbs Kurrajong Heights (number 6), Blackheath (number 14), and Bilpin (number 13), and the Hawkesbury’s Lower Portland (number 19).

Northern NSW towns and villages feature in all three tables.

*click on all tables to enlarge*

Erosion

IMAGE: InfoTrack in Nationwide News, 14.11.23

Flooding

IMAGE: InfoTrack

Bushfires

IMAGE: InfoTrack

Prospective homebuyers can search a property address via InfoTrackGO to purchase a Groundsure ClimateIndex™ for that residence.

Climate Change Australia State of Play 2024: will there ever be climate resilient housing for the poor and disadvantaged?

 

IMAGE: The Guardian, 9 December 2023

Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS), "ACOSS Summer Heat Survey 2024", 1 March 2024, excerpts:

* Introduction

Summers are becoming hotter with climate change. In fact, the last nine years were the world’s hottest on record, with 2023 being the hottest year to date. Australia is experiencing more very hot days and heatwaves, and Bureau of Meteorology data forecasts more days where the national daily average is over 40 degrees. For people in remote areas and places like central and northern Australia, high temperatures are already common and daily temperatures reach 35 degrees for over half the year.

Severely hot days and heatwaves affect people experiencing financial and social disadvantage worst because they have fewer resources and choices to protect themselves from extreme heat. This is an urgent and critical public health problem. Heatwaves cause more deaths than all other extreme weather events combined. In Australia, there were an estimated 36,000 deaths associated with heat between 2006 and 2017. A lack of access to energy-efficient homes is often a primary factor in these deaths.

People experiencing financial and social disadvantage are vulnerable to high temperatures because they often live in homes that are poorly insulated, with no or limited shading; and no air conditioning or fans to help cool indoor temperatures. Even if the home has air conditioning and/or fans, rising energy costs mean that people on low incomes often cannot afford to run them. They are also less likely to have rooftop solar, which would significantly reduce their energy bills.

Further, people in rental properties are not able to make changes in their home that could make them more liveable, healthy and safe. Minimum rental standards could address this problem by placing requirements on landlords to ensure their property protects tenants against heat or cold. For example, the ACT requires landlords to have ceiling insulation and Victoria is implementing minimal rental standards.

ACOSS conducted a public, online Heat Survey over the 2023-24 summer to explore the intersection between high temperatures, energy performance of homes, energy costs and income. The data is gathered to advocate for support for people experiencing financial and social disadvantage to secure cooler, healthier and more climate-resilient homes, putting people with the least at the centre of government policy and planning.

The survey gives us valuable insight into how severely high heat affects people’s physical and mental health, their wellbeing and activity when they cannot cool their homes. The survey highlights how seriously poverty and poor energy-performing homes can reduce people’s resilience and capacity to cope with debilitating hot weather.

The ACOSS Heat Survey was open from 1 December 2023 to 28 January 2024. It was made available online via the survey tool, TypeformTM.

* Key findings

Exposure to high heat is a major threat to human health. More people die in Australia from heatwaves than all other extreme events combined. With climate change, Australia is becoming hotter. Very hot days and heatwaves are becoming more common. People experiencing financial and social disadvantage are worst impacted by these events.

Those worst affected experience a combination of:

• homes with poor energy performance;

• high energy prices;

• low incomes; and

• health conditions.

To track the intersection between housing, energy costs, heat, and people experiencing financial and social disadvantage, ACOSS conducted a public, online Heat Survey over the summer months, from December 2023 to January 2024. We received 1007 responses from people across the country, including: 66.1% receiving income support; 19.2% in social housing; 36.1% in private rental; 6.4% First Nations respondents. Additionally, 62.7% reported they or someone in their household has a disability or chronic health condition.

The survey found the majority of 1007 people surveyed (80.4%) said their homes get too hot. This was often to do with being in homes with low energy efficiency (e.g., no insulation or shading, dark roofing, no eaves).

More than half (56.7%) could not cool their home because:

• they do not have air conditioners or fans, or have them but they are broken, or have them only in part of the home or they are ineffective in cooling the home; or

• if they had functioning air conditioners and or fans, they could not afford to run them.

People most likely to struggle to cool their homes were:

• people in social housing (78.3%) or private rental (65.7%) with limited control to modify their home or access working efficient air conditioners to better deal with extreme temperatures;

• people receiving income support (60.8%) with limited resources to modify their homes, afford air-conditioning or fans, or afford the running costs to cool their home;

and

• First Nations people (71.9%), two thirds of whom were in social or private rental, and more than three-quarters of whom were receiving income support.

Exposure to high temperatures in the home has a range of serious negative impacts on household members. Respondents to the survey reported:

• Negative physical and mental health impacts, making them unwell (80.5% of all 1007 respondents; 94% of First Nations respondents). For many, the heat seriously aggravated existing chronic health conditions or disabilities.

• Having to seek medical attention for heat stress (14% of all respondents; 25% of First Nations respondents).

• Difficulty sleeping (94% of all respondents; 98% of First Nations respondents), reduced productivity for work and study, and raised tensions in the home.

• Avoiding everyday household activities due to the heat (like housework and cooking).

While medical and government advice often is to leave home to go to a cooler place during very hot weather, this is not always easy. Most people (90.5%) reported that they face mobility, cost and other barriers to doing so.

Many people reported challenges affording their energy bills which meant they couldn’t cool their home and/or afford other essentials:

• 59.8% reported finding it increasingly difficult to pay their energy bills, which affected their capacity to cool their homes.

• Many reported that high energy bills made it difficult to pay for essentials like food (46.7%), medicine (41.4%) or housing (34%).

First Nations respondents were even more likely to be struggling to pay for essentials such as energy and other bills (86%), food (75%), medicine (63%) and housing (58%).

A quarter of all 1007 people surveyed (25.8%) were currently in energy debt with their retailer or believed they would go into energy debt because they could not afford their next energy bill. People receiving income support (69.4%) and First Nations people (55%) were more likely to say they had an energy debt or that they considered it to be imminent.

We note that while the people surveyed are currently housed, extremes of temperature present more severe health risks from exposure and threats to life itself to people living on the streets or sleeping rough.

Findings from the ACOSS 2024 Heat Survey raise similar concerns to the previous ACOSS 2023 Heat Survey Report and Sweltering Cities’ 2021 and 2022 Summer Survey Reports.

However, a hotter summer in 2023/24, coupled with rising costs for energy, housing, food and other essentials were reflected in people’s comments. There was a clear level of distress amongst people surveyed about the growing challenge to reduce the impacts of

heat while affording energy bills and avoiding – or compounding existing - energy debt.

For people experiencing financial and social disadvantage, especially those living with disability or a health condition, the situation of hot homes that cannot be cooled remains untenable, putting lives at risk. The situation facing First Nations people surveyed is much worse on almost every measure. Therefore, prioritising this report’s recommendations for First Nations communities is essential.

Almost all 1007 people who completed the 2024 Heat Survey (96.5%) called on governments to do more to improve homes to be more resilient to extreme heat (and cold) and to support people to be able to afford energy bills and other essentials....

Read the full 30 page report and recommendations at:

https://www.acoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ACOSSHeatSurveyReport2024.pdf