In
May 2022 the first-time Albanese Labor Government secured
seventy-seven seats in a House of Representatives having 151 members.
With
a floor majority of two that subsequently rose to four majority after
the April 2023 Aston by-election win.
After
boundary adjustments by the Australian Electoral Commission this year
redistribution will reduce House numbers from 151 to 150, so
seventy-six will remain the magic number for an absolute majority at
the 2025 federal general election.
For
the last twelve months I have noticed quite a bit of chatter
discussing the supposed benefits of voting to reduce the Albanese
Government to a minority federal government at the next general
election.
For
some reason there appears to be a view forming that a minority
government would inevitably deliver positive and lasting
environmental, social & economic policy change with the aid of
The Greens & Independents.
Nothing
is set in stone and, given how volatile the global climate and
international politics are in 2024 and predicted to be going forward,
perhaps it's time for a gentle reminder of what happens to duly
elected governments during periods of widespread uncertainty.
One
punter's view of Australia by way of example.....
There
have been 47 Australian Parliaments since 1901.
From
1901 to 1910 federal elections had resulted in what were essentially
minority governments and the prime ministership changed hands
six times across those first three Australian Parliaments.
The
Cook Free Trade and Liberal Association Government,
with a one seat majority, was first federal government in Australia
that did not even last one full term. It went for 1 year & 55
days from July 1913 to September 1914 when it lost a double
dissolution election. Britain and her dominions declared war on
Germany & her allies on 4 August 2014.
The
Scullin Labor Government was the second and last federal
government that did not last one full term. It went for 2 years &
79 days from October 1929 to January 1932 after failing to win a
second term. The Wall Street Crash which triggered the decade long
Great Depression occurred on 28 October 1929 at the very
beginning of this Labor Government's term.
During
the terms in office of five consecutive Coalition prime ministers
over 23 straight years from December 1949 to December 1972 there
was one major issue which increasingly exercised Australian society
between 1962 to 1972—the
Viet Nam War and Australia's
active participation in progressing that war.
Opposition
to that war was a significant factor in the Whitlam Labor
Government winning the 1972
federal election by 67 seats (with a positive two-party-preferred
swing of 2.50%) to the Coalition's 58 seats (with an adverse
two-party-preferred swing of
2.50%). The new government inherited a Senate where both Labor
and the Coalition held 26 seats each, the Democratic Labor Party 5
seats & an Independent 1 seat.
In
May 1974 the first-term Whitlam Government called a double
dissolution federal election on the basis that a hostile
Senate had unreasonably obstructed the first term government
by returned 6 Bills to the
House, in addition to
the matter of another 21 bills covering government promises taken to
the 1972 general election which been rejected, stood aside or
deferred by the Senate.
After
which the Labor Party remained in government in the House of
Representatives with 66 seats and a positive two-party-preferred
swing of 1.00%, to the Coalition's 61 seats and an adverse
two-party-preferred swing of 1.00%.
In
the Senate both Labor and the Coalition held 29 seats with the
balance of power held by one Independent & one Liberal Movement
senator who on past history would vote with the Coalition.
After
the election, the six Bills that had formed the basis of the double
dissolution – the Commonwealth Electoral Bill (No. 2) 1973, the
Senate (Representation of Territories) Bill 1973, the Representation
Bill 1973, the Health Insurance Commission Bill 1973, the Health
Insurance Bill 1973, and the Petroleum and Minerals Authority Bill
1973 – were passed at a historic joint sitting of both houses of
parliament.
In
what can only be described as a silent coup encouraged by the
Liberal & Nationals political parties, big business and
Buckingham Palace, in October 1975 the Coalition Opposition deferred voting on supply bills in the Senate in an
attempt to force Whitlam to call yet another election for
both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In response, Mr
Whitlam decided to ask the Governor-General to call a half-Senate
election to resolve the situation. Instead the Whitlam Government was pre-emptively dismissed by the
Governor-General on 11 November 1975 after two years & 341 days.
Malcolm Fraser was invited to form government and the Coalition won the subsequent 1975 federal election 91 House of Representative seats to Labor's 36 seats. This appears to be the highest majority ever held by an Australian federal government.
The Australian Labor Party did not form federal government again for almost another eight years when it again held government for thirteen years before the Coalition regained government in 1996 and with John Howard as prime minister held it for 11 years & 269 days until December 2007.
According
to political pundits almost every first-term government since the
World War Two has suffered an adverse two-party-preferred swing at
the next election.
In
the case of the federal Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Labor Government which
began life on 24 November 2007 by winning 83 of the 150 seats with a
two-party-preferred positive swing of 5.4 % it all looked like smooth
sailing. The Liberal Party having only won 55 seats, the National
Party 10, and Independents 2.
However
by June 2010 the accepted story is that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had
lost the confidence of the national electorate after the federal
government appeared to lose its way on a number of issues (including
Senate rejection of its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in November
2009) and walked away from a strong policy push for climate change
mitigation measures following the collapse of UN COP climate
summit in Copenhagen in December 2009. The Labor parliamentary
party replaced him with the Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard in
June 2010.
Following
the 21 August 2010 federal election, the Australian Labor Party (with
an adverse two-party-preferred swing of 2.58%) won 72 seats, the
Coalition 72, Independent Nationals 1, Greens 1 & Independents 4.
With
the support of the Greens member (Bandt) and three of the
Independents (Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott), Prime Minister Julia
Gillard was able to form a minority government which could
muster 76 votes to 74 in the House of Representatives.
Under
relentless disruptive attack from the Abbott-led Coalition Opposition
that number fluctuated over the course of the next 3 years & 16
days (going as low as 75 to 73), when a last minute change of party
leadership meant that Kevin Rudd had the dubious honour of leading
that Labor federal government to defeat in September 2013 winning
only 55 of the 150 House of Representative seats (its lowest primary
vote in 100 years) with an adverse two party preferred swing of 3.61%
and, the Coalition winning government with 90 seats.
From
2010 to 2013 the Gillard Labor Government had passed a range of bills
including the:
>
two National Broadband Network acts in 2011
(significantly & adversely altered by subsequent Coalition
governments);
>
Clean Energy Act 2011 (a carbon emissions trading scheme
repealed by Abbott Coalition Government);
>
Tobacco Plain Packaging Act 2011;
>
Mineral Resources Rent Tax 2012 (repealed by Abbott Coalition
Government);
>
National Disability Insurance Scheme Act 2013 (rolled
out by successive Coalition governments); and
>
The
National
School Reform Agreement (passed
by Senate on Gillard's last day as prime minister.
Under
successive Coalition Governments & current Labor Government has
never lived up to expectations).
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