Thursday 17 February 2022

Looking at the first three Newspoll & Roy Morgan voter intention polls of 2022


So what would the results of the first three voter intention surveys conducted by Newspoll and Roy Morgan Research look like on the ground, in the two federal electorates of Richmond and Page in the Northern Rivers region and, in the neighbouring electorates of Cowper, New England and Lyne?

Would seats change hands at the 2022 federal general election?


Morgan Poll 4-16 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor


Antony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022















Outcome


National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)



Newspoll 25-28 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor


Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022














Outcome


National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)



Newspoll 9-12 February 2022

Nationally swing of 6.5% to Labor


Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022














Australian Labor Party wins federal government, however the Member for Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison retains his seat (12.5%).


Outcome


National Party holds Page (2.9%) Cowper (5.4%) Lyne (8.7% ) and New England (11.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (10.6%)

* 

Wednesday 16 February 2022

Rous County Council's authoritarian members will ride forth at 9:30 am this morning armed with what can only be described as an anti-democracy revenge motion


Channon Gorge, site of proposed Dunoon Dam.
Photo David Lowe.
Image: Echo, 10 December 2020














It took a long hard campaign on the part of the Widjabul Wia-bal People and the people of Lismore to protect the area known as Channon Gorge and the river which runs though it - rich in cultural heritage as important today as it was thousands of years ago, high in environment values and biodiversity.


However, even when Rous County Council voted to take the proposed Dunoon Dam out of future planning in late 2020, it was obvious that the 'build it it and enough water will fall from the sky' brigade, along with those who appear to take umbrage at the thought of any Aboriginal landscapes escaping destruction, would be returning for another chance to submerge the Channon Gorge.


So the struggle continues and the Widjabul Wia-bal People are not backing down when it comes to protecting the land their ancestors also protected. On 11 February 2022, at their invitation, two members of the NSW Legislative Council met with their representatives at Channon Gorge.


Water Northern Rivers, retrieved from the website 15 February 2022:


Water Northern Rivers Alliance1


Our region is at a critical point


The current challenge for the Rous region (Ballina, Byron, Lismore and Richmond Valley council areas) is to create a drought-resilient water system without destroying cultural heritage and irreplaceable ecology.

In the face of climate change and projected population growth, the Northern Rivers has become an important testing ground for modern water supply options.


Rous County Council’s revised Integrated Water Catchment Management Plan (revised IWCM 2021) meets the challenge. It is investigating and moving forward with diverse options, instead of the White Elephant Dunoon Dam.


Recent council elections resulted in a new Rous County Councillors being appointed. The new make is predominantly pro-dam, so the time ahead is crucial.


Channon Gorge
Photo David Lowe
Image: Echo, 17 December 2020













Echo, 14 February 2022:


Just when we thought we’d seen the last of the Dunoon Dam, over a year after it was scrapped in 2020, a Rous councillor is moving a motion to put it back on the table.


The 2021 LGA elections saw the Dunoon Dam used as a platform for swaying votes on December 4, often the choice of ‘toilet water’ or the dam the only possibilities offered by candidates.


Now that this term of local government has begun, Ballina, Lismore and Richmond Valley Council have seen pro-dam councillors elected to the Rous Country Council which is made up of eight councillors – two from each of the constituent councils of Ballina, Byron, Lismore and Richmond Valley.


With the swearing-in of this term’s representatives, councils chose Councillors Sharon Cadwallader and Rod Bruem for Ballina, Councillors Michael Lyon and Sarah Ndiaye for Byron, Councillors Andrew Gordon and Big Rob for Lismore and Councillors Robert Mustow and Sandra Humphrys for Richmond Valley.


Ballina’s new Mayor Sharon Cadwallader has been nothing if not desperate to see the dam approved and has gone to extraordinary lengths to see it become a reality.


Ms Cadwallader has been voted on to Rous and she joins at least five other dam supporters on the Council.


Apart from the Byron representation, this group of Councillors have been clear about their support of the dam….


One of the results of this gaggle of duly elected environmental vandals gaining what appears to be a strong foothold on Rous County Council, is the motion set out below authored by a Lismore City councillor with the legal name of Big Rob.2, 3 And I have a strong suspicion that this particular motion was not presented (for formal agreement) to a full sitting of councillors on Lismore City Council – the particular local government Cr, Big Rob is legally obliged to represent at Rous County Council meetings.


Rous County Council, Ordinary meeting business paper, Wednesday, 16 February 2022:


Notice of Motion

Council Meeting 16 February 2022

Subject: Dunoon Dam


I hereby move:

That Council:


1. Adopt Revision 7 of the Integrated Water Cycle Management (IWCM) Strategy (Attachment 1) and update Revision 7 of the IWCM to reflect the inclusion of Dunoon dam investigations as part of the Future Water Project 2060


2. Approve the completion of detailed cultural heritage and biodiversity assessments associated with the proposed Dunoon dam in consultation with relevant Traditional Custodians.


3. Defer implementing the resolution associated with the proposed Dunoon dam, resolved by Council at its meeting of 16 December 2020 (resolution [61/20] Item 2), until after Stage 3 options have been determined (Attachment 2)


4. Utilise existing budget allocations for Dunoon dam land management to progress the actions in Item 2.


Signed: Councillor Big Rob

Date: 19 January 2022


The meeting at which this motion will be considered today can be accessed by the wider New South Wales & Northern Rivers general public:


Rous County Council meeting 16 February 2022
Public access, 9.30am – 10.00am:
Zoom link.
Council meeting from 10.00am:
 Zoom link.


A public meeting is being held before the start of Rous County Council proceedings:



NOTE:


1. Water Northern Rivers, retrieved 15 February 2022, excerpts:


Ecological impacts of Dunoon Dam site – cannot be offset

  • Internationally significant ecological remnants are our responsibility

  • Only 1% of our region’s Big Scrub rainforest remains. 6.7% is in the proposed dam site & would be destroyed or fragmented.

  • These rainforests are part of the Endangered Ecological Community Lowland Rainforest of the NSW North Coast and Sydney Basin Bioregions.

  • Water Gums and Grey Myrtles in The Channon Gorge are the largest on record.

  • Loss of flora species is cumulative, relentless and ultimately terminal. 

  • 52 ha of critical koala habitat and corridors would be destroyed.

  • Extinction already seriously threatens multiple species including the iconic platypus.

Why Dunoon Dam would NOT HELP with DROUGHT RESILIENCE


  • A second dam would only receive water from the catchment above Rocky Creek Dam when it overspills. But Rocky Creek Dam currently has no provision for overflow and is full only 30% of the time, so a new dam may take years to fill. (Rous does not measure water flows over the spillway).

  • Dunoon Dam is 3.5 x the size of Rocky Creek Dam, but has half the catchment size.

  • In drought, when overall rainfall decreases, the runoff decreases even more drastically.

  • Dunoon Dam’s relatively catchment would deliver very little in a drought.


  • Multi-year droughts, predicted with climate change, mean that after a 4.5 year drought we’d have TWO empty dams.  


2. Big Rob Archives – The Echo at https://www.echo.net.au/tag/big-rob/


3. Cr. Big Rob Archives – The Echo at https://www.echo.net.au/tag/cr-big-rob/


Tuesday 15 February 2022

Prime Minister Scott Morrison cannot even give a speech on the 14th anniversary of the historic Apology to the Stolen Generations without causing many to call into question his world view


POST SUBTITLE: In which Scott Morrison's personal philosophy markedly resembles that of those religious institutions which historically assisted successive colonial and state governments to oppress First Nations people within Australia and its island territories whilst pursuing the eradication of First Nations spirituality, cultures and languages.


Apology to the Stolen Generations
A section of the invited guests, 
Australian Parliament, Wednesday, 13 February 2008

IMAGE:Mark Baker/AFP/Getty Images in 
The Guardian


On 14 February 2022 the Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook, Scott Morrison, rose to his feet in the House of Representatives to acknowledge the 14th anniversary of the 13 February 2008 Apology to the Stolen Generations given by then Prime Minister & Labor MP for Griffith, Kevin Rudd.


In part Morrison’s speech stated:


Mr Speaker, we are on a journey to make peace with our past. And it’s a difficult journey and it is an important one, to draw together the past, the present, and future, so we can truly be one and free.


We belong to a story - from time immemorial, a continent that contends with us all, and the work of building a strong, sovereign and vibrant democracy that gives us all a voice.


But we don’t seek to sugarcoat this story. We don’t turn aside from the injustices, contentions and abrasions. That’s what successful liberal democracies do. We must remember if we are to shape the future, and to do so wisely.


So as we do this at this time every year, we remember the Stolen Generations. Children taken from their parents. I say it again, children taken from their parents. No parent, no child could fail to understand the devastation of that, regardless of whatever their background is. Children taken from their parents. Families and communities torn apart. Again and again and again.


With that trauma, disconnection, and unquenching pain, came a national shame and a deep wound. Separated from country, from kinship, from family, from language, from identity. Becoming even strangers to themselves.


Fourteen years have passed since we had said sorry here in this place.


Sorry for the cold laws that broke apart families.


Sorry for the brutalities that were masked even under the guise of protection and even compassion.


Sorry for believing that Indigenous people were not capable of stewarding their own lives.


Sorry for the failure to respect, to understand, to appreciate.


Sorry for the lives damaged and destroyed.


So on this day, and every year since, we are right to remind ourselves of times past - not to re-ignite the coals of pain, or to bring division where there are the beginnings of healing, but to be mindful of the lessons learned. To turn again from the great Australian silence, and towards each other.


And to again say: we are sorry.


And as I said when I spoke in support of the original motion here in this place on the other side of the Chamber 14 years ago, sorry can never be given without any expectation of forgiveness. But there can be hope.


I said an apology “involves … standing in the middle ground exposed, vulnerable and seeking forgiveness”.


Forgiveness is never earned or deserved. It can never be justified on the simple weighing of hurts and grievance. Such measures will never rationally tip the balance in favour of forgiveness.


Forgiveness transcends all of that. It’s an act of grace. It’s an act of courage. And it is a gift that only those who have been wounded, damaged and destroyed can offer.


I also said fourteen years ago, “sorry is not the hardest word to say, the hardest is I forgive you”.


But I do know that such a path of forgiveness does lead to healing. It does open up a new opportunity. It does offer up release from the bondage of pain and suffering that no simple apology on its own can achieve.


And nor do I believe that such forgiveness is a corporate matter. It can only begin with the individual. And forgiveness does not mean forgetting. Nor does it mean that there are not consequences for actions, and the need for redress and restitution.


This is a hard conversation. I know that Danny Abdallah, who together with his wife Leila knows a lot about loss and grief, and they have begun this conversation with Indigenous community leaders through the i4Give you foundation that he has established in memory of their children Antony, Angelina and Sienna and their niece [Veronique].


Out of great tragedy and loss there can rise hope. And I wish them all the very best for these conversations.” [my yellow highlighting]


The response to Morrison’s words on "forgiveness" was immediate.





News.com.au, 14 February 2022:

“I said 14 years ago, ‘Sorry is not the hardest word to say … the hardest is I forgive you.’”

 Mr Morrison’s statement immediately came under fire, with some people labelling the last six words as “utterly reprehensible”. 

Indigenous Greens senator Lidia Thorpe said Mr Morrison’s statement was “not an apology”. 

“This is outright disrespectful to all those affected by stolen generations in this country,” she said. 

“How dare you ask forgiveness when you still perpetrate racist policies and systems that continue to steal our babies.”

Monday 14 February 2022

Back To The Future? Newspoll voting intention survey 6-12 February 2022, published 13 February



https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll















The graph displayed above contains the results of 37 Newspoll surveys published between 4 February 2018 and 13 February 2022.

Two days after Scott Morrison became Australia's 30th prime minister the Newspoll survey of 26 September 2018 showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 56 (unchanged) to Coalition 44 (-5).
 
The day before the 18 May 2019 federal general election Newspoll showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 51.5 to Coalition 48.5. The Coalition went on to win the 2019 election 77 seats to 68 seats, with a 9 seat majority in the House of Representatives - since reduced to an 8 seat majority.

Six times between 10 November 2019 and 6 June 2021 the 'two party preferred' vote stood at 50-50.

On 13 February 2022 - just 66 days out from the last possible date for the constitutionally required federal general election - Newspoll showed the 'two party preferred' vote stood at Labor 55 to Coalition 45.
 


The Australian, Newspoll published on 13 February 2022 revealed:



FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE:

Coalition 34% (unchanged)

Labor 41% (unchanged)



TWO PARTY PREFERRED VOTE:

Coalition 45% (+1)

Labor 55% (-1)

The Greens 8% (-3)

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3% (unchanged)

Others 14% (+3)



LEADER’S PERFORMANCE:

Scott Morrison

Approval 40% (+1) Disapproval 56% (-2)

Anthony Albanese

Approval 37% (-3) Disapproval 46% (+3)



BETTER PRIME MINISTER:

Scott Morrison 43% (unchanged)

Anthony Albanese 38% (-3)

Unsure 19%



Newspoll survey was conducted on Wednesday 9 February to Saturday 13 February 2022 from a sample of 1,526 respondents.


In 2018 the Liberal MP for Cook & aspiring prime minister Scott John Morrison gave himself a nickname. In mid-February 2022 he now has another 252 nicknames & politically descriptive terms by which the voters of Australia know him



Liberal MP Scott John Morrison
Australian Prime Minister 24 August 2018 to ?



To mark the long and lingering death of democracy under the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government - an update of the terms of 'endearment' applied to Scott John Morrison.

Self-proclaimed Scott ‘Scomo’ Morrison’s other nicknames and the descriptive political terms applied to him by the general public - in no particular order


#LiarFromTheShire #ScottyFromMarketing #ScumMo #SloMo #SmoKo #StuntMo #ScamMo #ScoMoFo #ScoMocchio #ProMo #FauxMo #CoalMo #GunnaDoMorrison #CrimeMinister #PrimeSinister #MorriScum #SloganBogan #ScoMoses #KoalaKiller #SmirkyMcSmirkface #TyphoidScotty #Bullshitboy #NotMyPM #ScottyFromSportsRorts #GrottyScotty #SideshowScott #TheJerkWithTheSmirk #TheEngadineShitter #HappyClappySloganBogan #ScottyNoMates #ScottyBornToShill #SnollygosterInChief #TrumpsBitch #ScoMoron #SmirkingSnake #SignificuntScotty #DeathMaker #ScottyTheAnnouncer #TheSmugThug #ScuntMo #JobShirker #JobDodger #ShirknSmirk #ScottyTheSaviour #MissionCreepMorrison #ScottyTheSimp #ScottyFromGilead #MaliciousMorrison #TrumpLite #ScottyTheBully #ScoFuckingMo #ScottyGanda #FoghornLiehorn #MansplainerInChief #Scooter #ScottyForPhotoShoots #ScottyThePoser #PerformativeShitclown #BunningsBoy #ScoVid #ScottyTheSkiver #PinchfartMorrison #ScottyWotty #ScottyNeverHelped #SnottyTheGrifter #RoboScomo #ScumNut #ScottyFromGasMarketing #ScottAllMouthNoTrousersMorrison #KimJongScottyUn #Scrotum #Fullofshiticus #ScottyGaveMeShingles #CaptainSmirk #McFuckface #SideshowScott #ScottyFromPhotoOps #DoughMo #ScottyTheUninvited #ScottyStoppedTheExports #ScottyThePutz #scottyfkntrump #SmirkAndMirrorsMorrison #ScottyNeverHelped #ScottyMIA #Slomoaf #InactionMan #SnakeOilScumo #NoShowMo #WhatsInItForScotty #ScottyTheFukwit #ScottyTheCharlatan #ScottyThe [insert swear or hands over mouth emoji here] #ScottyDoNothing #SnottieTheSpiv #ScottyTheVile #ShonkyFromTheStartScotty #ScottyKnew #ScottyFromCoverUps #ScottyTheRapistProtector #ScottyTheUnsavoury #ScottyTheQueueJumper #ScottyTheMisogynist #ScottyDoesNothing #PastorBumblefuck #ScottyIPromiseNotToShootWimmensMorrison #Squirmo #Scrotum #ScottyTheUnhinged #ScottyUnfitForOffice #LordSmirkington #ScottyTheGaslighter #ScottyFromDamageControl #SpinMeisterMorrison #ScottyTheLiar #ClotMorrison #Scoflake #ScareMo #MilkshakeMorrison #MealeyMouthMorriscum #ScottyBlahBlah #CanDooDooMorrison #MorrisonTheSpiritualAbuser #ScottyTheChosenOne #ScottyFromHillsong #ScottAlmighty #ScottyTheIntern #SquattyFromMarketing #MilkshakeTwerkinJerkinMotormouth #PariahFromTheShire #scroto #ElSmirko #ScottTheArseholePrick #ClottyTheEagleOfGod #TheLastKingofCookland #ScottyFromBlathering #Scomozzle #ScottyFromCarpeting #Scoff #Scovid #ScottyFromQanon #ScottyTheTosser #FakeScott #Moronson #ScottytheChildAbuser #ScottytheMonster #ScottyTheSerialUnderachiever #QanonPM #RoboSco #ScottyNoFriends #sQomo #Sqotty #QanonPM #ScottyFromStuffUps #LunaticInTheLodge #ScottyTheSuperSpreader #CrookFromCook #ClotMo #Smuggo #ScottyTheFaker #ScottyInHiding #ScottyTheProtocolCreep #ScottyTheObserver #ScottyTheAntichrist #SCOalMOle #ScottyTheDictator #ScottyFromHairPlugs #MorrisonTheOneManBand #WallpaperGuy #ScottyTheMaliciousAdvisor #ScottyFromMuppeting #ScottyTheBlameShifter #ScottyTheCoward #HuffMuffMorrison #SirMoron #MassMurdererMorrison #GotOffScottFreeMorrison #EvilBully #Clotty #Morrisogynist #AlohaScotty #IonlyHoldAPoseMorrison #JesusMorrison #ShoutyMcDickhead #ShoutyMcShoutface #ScottyFromGlasgow #PrimeMinisterForNSW #ScottyTheClimateFake #ComboverMorrison #LordOfTheLies #MorrisonTheDestroyer #TheAustralianWayPrimeFailure #PrimeFailureMorrison #ScottyHasAPamphlet #ScottyHasAPlan #ScottyThePariah #ScottyTheTraitor #ScottyTheLeaker #MorrisonPantsOnFire #DimwitDipshitDropkickClown #MorrisonNoShow #ScottyThePalterer #ScottyTheCoalFondler #LooseLipsMorrison #PrimeArsonist #ScottyThePathologicalLiar #TickTockScuntMo #ScottyTheSmugBastard #HawaiiScoMo #ScottyDontHoldAHose #ScottytheDogWhistler #ScottyTheNasty #TickTockScotty #CanDoCapitalismAndWontDoGovernmentMorrison #PrimeMemeMinister #ShanghaiScott #SnotMorrison #ScottytheLiarbyOmission #BooooScottyBoooo #BooHooScotty #ArrogantScott#SmirkingLumpOfSentientPizzaDough #Scomicron #ScottyCouldntGiveaRats #ScottyFromEugenics #RATPM #RestingSmugFace #PapaSmirk #ScottytheFailure #RentaGospelScottMorrison #MotormouthMorrison #PrimeMonsterMorrison #ScottyTheMediaWhore #GoSlowScomo #ScottTheUnlikeable #CantCountMorrison #ScottNoIdea #ScottyTheCreep #AbsoluteArseholeMorrison #ScottyFromHairdressing #ScottyNoEmpathy #ScottyTheWanker #PrimeIncompetent #ScottyTheIdiotInCharge #SensitiveScotty #ScottyTheTool #ScottyTheFraud #MorrisonTheCallousHypocrite #MorrisonFail #ShitshowMorrison #ScottyTheDickhead #ScottyTheShitMagnet #ScottyThePsycho #PsychoMo 252 Total as of 3pm 13 February 2022. This does not claim to be an exhaustive list.


By the time Australia goes to the polls in the forthcoming 2022 federal general election it might just be that the Morrison count will have reached 300.


Sunday 13 February 2022

NSW coastline becoming thick with shark nets and drumlines

 


"The RSPCA does not support killing sharks as a response to shark incidents involving humans. This approach causes unnecessary animal suffering to both target and non-target species. In addition, culling disturbs marine ecosystems and affects protected and vulnerable species including the targeted great white shark and non-target species such as the grey nurse shark. The available scientific evidence does not convincingly support the claim that killing sharks will reduce the risk to public safety. The RSPCA only accepts the management of wild animals where it is justified, effective and humane; the killing of sharks does not meet these criteria......

Drumlines 
A drumline consists of a floating drum (a rubber buoy) with one line attached to an anchor on the sea floor, while a second line features a large, baited hook to lure, catch and ultimately kill sharks.....
SMART drumline is designed to be a non-lethal method which, via a satellite link, sends an alert when the baited hook has been ‘taken’, with the aim that the shark or other species will be retrieved within a short period of time to enable live release. " [RSPCA,"What is the RSPCA’s view on killing sharks to reduce shark incidents?"]


Live release from drumlines is not always successful and over time many more non-target marine species than sharks are hooked on these lines, including protected & vulnerable species

The jury is also out on whether SMART drumlines are actually an effective shark mitigation strategy.



There are now 15 potentially lethal SMART drum lines approx. 500m offshore along an est. 52km long stretch of coastal waters between Woody Head and Wooli on the Clarence Coast.

These drumlines have been in place since late last year and will be deployed until mid-2022, allegedly being placed in ocean waters at dawn and retrieved at dusk.