A reminder that climate change and pandemic risk are here to stay

"As climate change reshapes life on earth, it may also become the single biggest upstream driver of pandemic risk." [Colin J. Carlson PhD, Georgetown University, Centre for Global Health Science & Security, 28 April 2022]

IMAGE: Colin J. Carlson, @wormmaps
Click on map to enlarge

nature, 28 April 2022:

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

Colin J. Carlson, Gregory F. Albery, Cory Merow, Christopher H. Trisos, Casey M. Zipfel, Evan A. Eskew, Kevin J. Olival, Noam Ross & Shweta Bansal

Abstract

At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals^1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife^3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

Cartoons of the Week

Cathy Wilcox

Peter Broelman

Matt Golding

Fiona Katauskas

 

Tweet of the Week

 

Breaking: Girard state forest defended!
A NSW blockade on Jukembal land today to prevent the logging of native forest. https://t.co/KGBFI2mtWd
Girard state forest is one of the last significant wildlife corridors between the Border Ranges NP and Bundjalung NP#worthmorestanding pic.twitter.com/JCPFxn09Xd

— Australian Forests and Climate Alliance (@AFCA_Forests) April 26, 2022

 

Australian Federal Election 2022: and the economic outlook gets gloomier for us all

Bottom line, cost of living and other economic pressures are not going to ease anytime soon, with almost half of all businesses now passing on cost increases to customers.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 28 April 2022:

Source: Business Conditions and Sentiments, April 2022

More than half (57 per cent) of all businesses experienced increases in the cost of doing business over the three months to April 2022, with almost a quarter (21 per cent) reporting costs had increased to a great extent, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Consistent with the results from March, most of these businesses had seen increases to the cost of fuel or energy (83 per cent) and the cost of products or services used by the business (82 per cent).

ABS Head of Industry Statistics, John Shepherd, said: “More than half of the businesses with higher costs (52 per cent) did not increase their prices. For those that did increase prices, 42 per cent had partially passed on costs and 6 per cent had fully passed on the increases to customers.”

Businesses also provided information about other actions they had taken in response to increased business costs.

“Over a third (39 per cent) of businesses had made changes to their operations or processes and 17 per cent had renegotiated payment terms with customers and suppliers,” Mr Shepherd said.

The results also provided information about business staffing levels. One in five businesses (18 per cent) did not have enough staff in April 2022, consistent with findings in January 2022.

More than four in five businesses (84 per cent) with staff shortages were unable to find suitable staff, rising from 69 per cent in January. Uncertainty due to COVID-19 was less likely to be an influence on staffing levels (36 per cent compared to 62 per cent in January).

Further information, as well as insights into supply chain, are included in Business Conditions and Sentiments. 

Second Term of the 2022 academic year, education still disrupted for students in flood damaged Northern Rivers schools

 

Across the Northern Rivers region this week Term 2 began for primary and high school students.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 25 April 2022:

Flood-hit schools face years of disruption

...it will be anything but business as usual for many students in the Northern Rivers. The devastating floods that hit the region in February caused mass disruptions and meant thousands of children missed weeks of in-person learning. For many students, school won’t return to normal for months, or even years, after the floods forced classes off-site for the foreseeable future.

Nine public schools in the region were significantly damaged and earmarked for rebuilding along with several Catholic and independent schools, and many more were damaged. At Lismore’s Trinity Catholic College, which has almost 1000 students, all but eight rooms were inundated by floodwaters and the damage bill is expected to top tens of millions of dollars.

Universities and community groups have opened their doors to displaced students.

At Lismore’s Trinity Catholic College, which has almost 1000 students, every room but eight was inundated with water and the damage bill was expected to top tens of millions of dollars.

Trinity Catholic College in Lismore was almost completely destroyed by floods.

Read the full article here.

Australian Federal Election 2022: inflation and cost of living a live issue 23 days out from polling day

Australia recorded its largest quarterly & annual inflation increase in 21 years in the first Quarter of 2022.

The Cost of Living Index (CPI) rose 2.1 per cent cent in March 2022 quarter and 5.1 per cent annually - again largest annual change in 21 years. 

That 5.1 per cent exceeds the 2021 annual rate of 3.5 per cent, as well as the overly optimistic projected inflation figure of 4.5 to 4.6 per cent floated by some economists for the March quarter.

Australian Bureau of Statistics, media release, 27 April 2022, excepts:

The most significant contributors to the rise in the March quarter CPI were new dwellings (+5.7 per cent), automotive fuel (+11.0 per cent) and tertiary education (+6.3 per cent)…..

Notable rises were also recorded across the food group (+2.8 per cent), reflecting high transport, fertiliser, packaging and ingredient costs, as well as COVID-related disruptions and herd restocking due to favourable weather. Main contributors to the rise in food prices included vegetables (+6.6 per cent), waters, soft drinks and juices (+5.6 per cent), fruit (+4.9 per cent) and beef (+7.6 per cent)…..

The grocery component of the group, which excludes meals out and takeaway foods, rose 4.0 per cent in the March quarter." Ms Marquardt said.

Prices for other grocery items, such as non-durable household products (+6.7 per cent), which includes products such as toilet paper and paper towels, also rose in the March quarter….

The price of goods (+6.6 per cent) rose more strongly through the year than that of services (+3.0 per cent)…..

It appears that cost of living increase is now running significantly ahead of wages growth in Australia.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison's one-off election campaign bribe of $250 for eligible Centrelink/DVA recipients won't even touch the edges of the yawning gap which has developed between income and costs due to the broad base of rising prices. In fact the positive impact of this so-called Cost of Living Payment is unlikely to last beyond polling day in many low-income family households.

$312 million roads funding boost. It's a little being asked to go a long way in flood ravaged regional NSW, but it's still good news

 Approaches to Main Arm, NSW, March 2022

IMAGE: Byron Shire Council

IMAGE: ABC News

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Byron Shire Council, media release, 22 April 2022:

Byron Shire to share in $312 million roads funding boost

Byron Shire Mayor, Michael Lyon, has welcomed the news of the Australian and NSW Governments’ $312 million Regional Roads and Transport Recovery Package saying it will have long-lasting benefits for communities in the Byron Shire.

Mayor Lyon this week met the NSW Minister for Regional Roads and Transport, Sam Farraway, and other Mayors and Members of Parliament in Lismore, to hear details of the funding package and to discuss the way forward in relation to the repair and rebuilding of roads and infrastructure in the Northern Rivers.

“This joint funding from the Australian and NSW Governments will go a long way to ensuring our roads and bridges are not just rebuilt, but they will be to a standard that will better withstand future floods,” Mayor Lyon said.

“The term people use for this is ‘betterment’ – which in the context of a natural disaster is the process of building a damaged road or bridge back better than its original condition prior to the event,” he said.

“This is about building resilience into our road network which is a very encouraging development, it is something European countries do very well, spending money on prevention, rather than recovery.

“Traditionally, the State Government would only fund the restoration of an asset, leaving the cost of any identified improvements which could mitigate damage in a future event to Council.

“Given Council’s usually stretched financial situation, these improvements rarely, if ever, got funded.

“We have been lobbying for years for the idea of betterment to be funded as part of the recovery from a natural disaster, because it makes sense and it saves dollars in the long run as well as minimising disruption caused by these events,” Mayor Lyon said.

“The meeting with Minister Farraway, NSW Transport officials, local Members of Parliament, Mayors and General Managers was most valuable as we talked through how we can most effectively respond to the enormous rebuilding challenge before us and ensure that we have a coordinated, regional approach, given we are all competing in some way for the same resources.

“Minister Farraway has visited the region several times since the first flood and it has been impressive to know he listened to our concerns around betterment, the need for it and then to effectively lobby on behalf of our region and come up with a result for our community.

“It sets a good precedent for the future and our ability to be resilient in the face of the expected increased frequency of natural disasters.

“Simon Richardson, our previous Mayor, was very good at recognising the desire in other people to do good things, irrespective of their political flag and he was able to obtain funding for our area through this approach.

“I intend to seek to emulate this approach with the intention being to secure as much funding as possible for the benefit of our residents and businesses.

“The recovery in the Byron Shire, and in the Northern Rivers, is going to be a long, slow process, and it’s going to test everyone.

“This sort of financial package takes some of the pressure off and for this I am very thankful,” Mayor Lyon said.

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Palmwoods Road Reconstruction
March 2022
IMAGE: Byron Shire Council