Turnbull and Joyce: exactly who holds the reins?

Ever since John Howard stirred the possum in a classic piece of political mischief, by encouraging the Queensland Liberal National Party's Senator Barnaby Joyce to consider moving from the federal upper house to the lower house, it has been interesting to watch the bull ants scurry about the disturbed nest.

According to The Australian:
"SENIOR Nationals have hatched a plan to breach the constitution of Queensland's Liberal National Party to ensure that a National takes the Senate spot of Barnaby Joyce if he shifts to the House of Representatives.
The move has shaken the Liberal Party, which is guaranteed the spot under the LNP constitution if it is vacated, and threatens to split the recently formed LNP in the run-up to a state election.
Liberal sources said federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull had told the LNP leadership through intermediaries that the plan was unacceptable to him and to the Liberal Party.
Mr Turnbull declined to comment yesterday."

It's all rather amusing when you consider that Joyce and other Queensland LNP pollies are now members of the Queensland branch of the Liberal Party of Australia and up to six of these MPs have a right to sit in the Liberal Party Room according to Senator Mitch Fifield in his recent Finding Our Way Back speech to the Young Liberals.

Indeed Fifield was quite blunt about the type of dilemma that Turnbull now finds himself in:
"The simple fact is if we are not in Coalition, we can’t win. We won’t win. If we are not in Coalition at the next election we may as well not bother turning up. 1987 is a case in point, where the coalition split caused by the Joh for PM push cost John Howard any chance of victory."

Yep, a divorce at this stage will cost the Libs any chance at either gaining power at this year's Queensland election or the 2010 federal election.
Mal needs to take it like a man, because the Nats appear to have the upper hand for now and they know it.