Sunday, 15 March 2020

COVID-19 virus spread in NSW is gaining pace in March 2020


11 Affected NSW Local Heath Districts, 14 March 2020

In the space of fourteen days the COVID-19 virus went from 6 cases in New South Wales to 91 cases.

To date 44.4% of all Australian confirmed COVID-19 cases are in this state.

NSW UPDATES:

48.7% as of 15 March 2020
45.2% as of 16 March 2020
46.6% as of 17 March 2020
47% as of 18 March 2020
45% as of 19 March 2020
41.7% as of 20 March 2020
40.6% as of 21 March 2020
39.36% as of 22 March 2020
41% as of 23 March 2020
44.6% as of 24 March 2020
42.4% as of 25 March 2020
43.5% as of 26 March 2020

Cumulative COVID-19 confirmed infection numbers since the outbreak began in New South Wales*
  • 15 January 2020 - 1 case
  • 25 January 2020 - 3 cases
  • 31 January to 28 February 2020 - 4 cases
  • 29 February 2020 - 6 cases
  • 2 March 2020 - 9 cases
  • 3 March 2020 - 15 cases
  • 4 March 2020 - 22 cases
  • 5 March 2020 - 25 cases
  • 6 March 2020 - 28 cases
  • 7 March 2020 - 36 cases
  • 8 March 2020 - 40 cases
  • 9 March 2020 - 47 cases
  • 10 March 2020- 54 cases
  • 11 March 2020 - 64 cases
  • 12 March 2020 - 77 cases
  • 13 March 2020 - 91 cases
  • 14 March 2029 -111 cases
NSW UPDATES:
  • 15 March 2020 - 133 cases
  • 16 March 2020 - 171 cases
  • 17 March 2020 - 210 cases
  • 18 March 2020 - 267 cases
  • 19 March 2020 - 307 cases
  • 20 March 2020 - 353 cases
  • 21 March 2020 - 436 cases
  • 22 March 2020 -533 cases
  • 23 March 2020 - 704 cases
  • 24 March 2020 - 818 cases
  • 25 March 2020 - 1,209 cases
  • 26 March 2020 - 1,219 cases
Conservative infectious disease models suggest that every person infected with COVID-19 has the potential to infect 4 other people.

On 1 February 2020 Australian Prime Minister & MP for Cook Scott Morrison announced a ban on direct travel from mainland China.

On 29 February 2020 Morrison imposed a ban on direct travel from Iran. However this was a case of closing the stable door after the horse had bolted.

On 5 March he announced a ban on travel from Korea and on 11 March from Italy. 

As of 14 March Morrison refuses to consider a ban on travel from the United States of America, even though more people who have entered Australia from the US have been diagnosed with the coronavirus than was the case with incoming flights from Iran.

By Saturday morning, 14 March 2020 there were 197 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia with 3 deaths and 27 fully recovered, according to an Australian Dept. of Health health alert on the same day. This left 167 confirmed active cases of COVID-19.

That figure changed later on Saturday, as New South Wales,  Western Australia and South Australia reported additional cases, bringing the national count to 223 confirmed cases with three deaths and 27 fully recovered.

AUSTRALIAN UPDATES: 
As of midnight 14 March 2020 the national count stood at 250 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 8:82pm 15 March 2020 the national count of COVID-19 cases is 251.
As of 11am 15 March 2020 the national count is 273 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 15 March 2020 the COVID-19 national death toll has reached 5 persons.
As of 16 March 2020 the national count is 378 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 17 March 2020 the national count is 450 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 18 March 2020 the national count is 568 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 19 March 2020 the national count is 681 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 20 March 2020 the national count is 846 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 21 March 2020 the national count is 986 confirmed COVID-19 cases. As of midnight on 21 March the national count was 1,073 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with 7 deaths.
As of 22 March 2020 the national count is 1,354 confirmed COVID-19 cases. 
As of 23 March 2020 the national count is 1,717 confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of 24 March 2020 the national count is 1,831 confirmed COVID-19 cases. 
As of 25 March 2020 the national count is 2,423 confirmed COVID-19 cases. 

As of 26 March 2020 the national count is 2,799 confirmed COVID-19 cases - the number of deaths has now reached 13.

If Victorian Dept of Health published data is any indication then exposure to this particular coronavirus is likely to occur at Australian airports, aboard domestic/international commercial airline flights, on metropolitan trains, at sporting events, in parks/ovals, at supermarkets, university campuses, hotels, cinemas, markets and medical practices, as well as at high schools.

During this last week, despite federal or state governments refusing to outright ban large gatherings of over 500 people (and only offering recommendations for many types of gatherings) and the prime minister encouraging people to turn up at sporting events, actual event organisers and businesses began to make their own decisions to either cancel events or run them without audiences.

By Friday, after the general public discovered that at least one federal cabinet minister had tested positive for COVID-19, Scott Morrison altered his stance and advised all "non-essential, organised gatherings" of 500 people or more be cancelled from Monday to limit the spread of COVID-19

Mainstream media reported that Mr. Morrison refused to be tested for the virus and, extended this exemption to all of his ministers, stating none needed to be tested or needed to self-isolate.

It seems that there is one rule for the general population based on proven epidemiology protocols and one special rule for Scott Morrison and his political mates.

Luckily for the people of New South Wales someone in the Berejiklian Government had a different perspective on political privilege and, the Sydney offices used by Morrison and certain other cabinet ministers - along with various state /territory ministers and departmental staff - were promptly cleaned.

Note

* Official numbers are not updated on Saturday or Sunday. However, looking at the exponential growth to date, by Monday 16 March 2020, the state of New South Wales may have entered the point of no return if it has not completely banned all large gatherings. 
See: https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2020-nsw-health.aspx for latest NSW statistics. Please be aware that the original statistics show 1 interstate resident diagnosed in NSW, who by protocol is listed under state of residence, so has been deducted by me from the NSW total. 
It appears that an est. 16,593 people in NSW have been tested for the virus to date, with 14,665 returning a negative result.

No comments: