Opinion: "Those with the loudest voices do not speak for all Jews in Australia"

Sarah Schwartz and Max Elliott Kaiser writing in The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 February 2024:

Those with the loudest voices do not speak for all Jews in Australia.

Today, talk about antisemitism is everywhere - in newspapers, conversations between friends, and especially on social media. Many Jews feel scared. They are told to see antisemitism in the scarves worn in solidarity with Palestine, in the words "Free Palestine" voiced at protests, and in the stickers calling for the boycott of Israeli products.

But while reports of antisemitism have increased in Australia since Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel - as have those of anti-Palestinian racism and Islamophobia - none of these are examples of it. They are instead legitimate expressions of support for Palestinians who are facing overwhelming levels of violence and displacement.

When Australia's pro-Israel lobby groups mischaracterise these expressions as antisemitic, they produce fear and demonise Palestinians and their supporters. These accusations rely on a conflation of Jews and Israel - that any criticism of the state of Israel is seen as an attack on all Jews. This conflation reflects the view, promoted by Israel, that Jewish identity and safety worldwide is inextricable from Israel and its "security". Any criticism of Israel's use of brute force against Palestinians in the name of this security is by default deemed antisemitic.

As proud Jews who are committed to combating real racism, we know these are not the same thing. Jewish people have identities separate from the state of Israel and our cultures and practices are far older than Zionism. The truth is that the Jewish community is not a monolith. We might better speak of multiple Jewish communities with unique histories, diverse expressions of Jewishness, and - in our view increasingly - conflicting views on Israel. Jews here and around the world, particularly those with personal connections to Israel, are still reeling from the killing of more than 1100 people in Israel, the majority civilians, on October 7. Many Jews also abhor the violence Israel has since meted out to Palestinians in Gaza. More than 27,000 people have been killed, according to Gaza's health ministry, many of them children and most of them civilians, and 2 million have been displaced from their homes.

Almost 1000 Jewish people in Australia have signed an open letter condemning Israel's collective punishment of Palestinians in Gaza, calling for a ceasefire and stating that: "Our Jewish values are incompatible with the unjustified cruelty and reckless disregard for human life and dignity that the Israeli government is displaying."

A survey in June 2023 found disagreement between Jews in Australia in relation to Israel's control over Palestinians in the West Bank. Irreconcilable differences of opinion between Jews are widening, yet the broader Australian public could be forgiven for thinking all Jews agree.

This is in part because most so-called Jewish representative organisations in Australia refuse to represent this diversity of opinion between Jews and have become explicit Israel lobby groups. One of these organisations, the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, prepares a regular report on rising antisemitism in Australia.

In its December 2023 report, cited widely in the media, it brings attention to many real incidents of hate against Jews such as graffiti in November on a block of flats saying "kill jews, jews live here".

However, disgusting instances such as this are also lumped in with legitimate political expressions of solidarity with Palestinians, criticism of Israel and criticism of Zionism as a political ideology. Examples include graffiti and placards reading "Zionism = racism" and "end the Palestinian Holocaust" being considered antisemitic, as was the protest chant "intifada, intifada", which means "uprising" in Arabic.

The Israel lobby's conflation of these types of incidents has meant that claims of antisemitism are being exploited to stifle legitimate criticism of Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.

The Australian public now knows there is a concerted effort by organised pro-Israel lobbyists to target individuals who publicly criticise the state of Israel.

Leaked messages from WhatsApp groups reveal campaigns to target actors who wore the keffiyeh - a scarf worn in solidarity with Palestinians - for a curtain call; broadcaster Antoinette Lattouf, who reposted content on Gaza; and doctors who engaged in political action in support of healthcare workers in Gaza. We should all be concerned when political lobbying crosses over into intimidation aimed at suppressing legitimate expression in a democratic society.

The baseless weaponisation of accusations of antisemitism by various lobby groups aims to undermine the movement for a just future for Palestinians, but it also undermines the fight against antisemitism. The history and concept of antisemitism risks becoming confused and devalued amid a very real fight worldwide against genuine anti-Jewish racism and an increase in fascist activity. It will lead to real instances of antisemitism being dismissed.

We are proud of being Jewish. We are the descendants of Jews who fled violence, horror and racism. We grew up hearing stories of Holocaust survivors. For us, honouring our ancestors means fighting against racist violence wherever it appears. Doing all we can to stop Israel's overwhelming violence against Palestinian civilians, found to be a plausible case of genocide by the International Court of Justice, is an ethical imperative precisely because of our Jewishness and our histories.

We write these words knowing we will face backlash. Palestinians face the worst targeting from lobbyists. However, the state of Israel, and groups that lobby on its behalf, have no qualms about going after fellow Jews. In order to maintain that their actions are for the benefit of all Jews, they must silence and discredit Jewish dissenters.

Every Jew we know who has spoken out against Israel has faced threats, social exclusion, intimidation, campaigns for sacking or attempts to discredit them. We are called "self-hating", "Kapos", "Nazi sympathisers", or "fake Jews". Lattouf's Jewish lawyer Josh Bornstein was even called a "traiter" [sic] by a participant in the Lawyers for Israel group which advocated for the broadcaster's sacking.

We are part of a growing number of Jewish people who have spoken out against Israel's actions. Antisemitism is a real threat, but the cynical misappropriation of this term is causing unnecessary fear and shutting down critical dialogue around Israel's war. We are proud of our Jewishness, and we refuse to let those with the loudest voices speak for all Jews in Australia.

Sarah Schwartz is a human rights lawyer and lecturer at the University of Melbourne. Dr Max Elliott Kaiser is a historian, expert on antisemitism and author of Jewish Antifascism and the False Promise of Settler Colonialism.

Cartoon of the Week

John Shakespeare

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY 2023: the climate change microwave has been cooking Australia on "High"

 

It been easy in recent years to take our eyes off the ball when it came to the that important predictive climate change number, the Global Surface Temperature Anomaly which tracks the degree the Earth is warming over time. So many urgent distractions - global pandemic, wars and war crimes, the local effects of rolling unnatural disasters and rising cost of living.

This is where the world, Australia, Eastern Australia and New South Wales stand in 2023......

Commonwealth Science Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Climate Change In Australia, YEARS AT THE +1.5 °C GLOBAL WARMING LEVEL, retrieved 25 November 2023:

Climate variability is greater at the national and state level than in the global average, so some places have already experienced a year consistent with the what is expected to be the ‘new normal’ (the long-term average) at a +1.5 °C global warming level. Have we already seen any such years in Australia?

The answer is now yes.

The globe has warmed by around +1.1 °C, Australia by around +1.6 °C, a ratio of around x1.4. This suggests that when the world is at +1.5 °C, Australia will be at around +2.1 °C since 1850–1900. The average temperature of the record year 2019 was at around this temperature – so is expected to be typical of an average year in Australia in a +1.5 °C world. [my yellow highlighting]

ABC News, 24 November 2023:

Last week, global temperatures appeared to momentarily breach a threshold set by world governments to try and avoid widespread climate devastation.

On November 17 and 18, the world was, on average, 2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels for the first time in modern recorded history.

The pre-industrial period was a time before widespread fossil fuel use....

Over the past 10 months, the average global temperature was more than 1.3C above pre-industrial levels.....

Current greenhouse gas levels and emissions puts the planet on a trajectory to exceed Paris Agreement targets....

BBC News, 7 October 2023:

...BBC analysis of data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that, up to 2 October, around 86 days in 2023 have been over 1.5C warmer than the pre-industrial average. That beats the 2016 record well before the end of the year.

There is some uncertainty in the exact number of days that have breached the 1.5C threshold, because the numbers reflect a global average which can come with small data discrepancies. But the margin by which 2023 has already passed 2016 figures gives confidence the record has already been broken.

"The fact that we are reaching this 1.5C anomaly daily, and for a longer number of days, is concerning," said Dr Lazenby.

One important factor in driving up these temperature anomalies is the onset of El Niño conditions.

When it comes to tracking temperature anomalies across  relatively smaller areas over time, such as the eastern half of the Australian continent or the state of New South Wales, one has some indication as to why the CSIRO expects Australia to be so much hotter than the global temperature anomaly when 1.5°C is the 'normal' annual average. 

Monthly maximum temperature anomalies retrieved from Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) 25.11.23.

NOTE:

 Anomalies denote the departure of an element from its long-period average value for the location concerned. For example, if the maximum temperature for June in Melbourne was 1 degree Celsius higher than the long-term average for this month, the anomaly would be +1 degrees Celsius. The current international standard is to use the 30 year average from 1961 to 1990 as the long-term average. (BOM, Climate Glossary 2023]

With regard to tracking climate change global surface temperature anomalies the baseline is pre-industrial temperature levels which is widely interpreted as those occurring before 1850 perhaps as early as before 1800. The United Nations IPCC uses as its reference period the years 1850–1900 to represent pre-industrial temperature. 

Global ocean heat is intensifying and seas below the 30th Parallel South appear to have seen the largest increase in absorbed & accumulated heat

 

‘The world ocean, in 2023, is now the hottest ever recorded, and sea levels are rising because heat causes water to expand and ice to melt,’...‘Ecosystems are also experiencing unprecedented heat stress, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are changing rapidly, and the costs are enormous.’ [Scientia Professor Matthew England, co-author of the study from the UNSW Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, in the Echo, 6 November 2023]

Over the years science has made the general public increasingly aware that anthropomorphic global warming and subsequent climate change has been heating the world's oceans beyond their normal temperature range.

What we aren't always aware of is exactly which oceans are exhibiting the most persistent warming and the fastest temperature rises.

This recent study below highlights those particular oceans.

It seems that ocean waters from the 30th Parallel south (latitude: -30° 00' 0.00" S longitude: 0° 00' 0.00") are experiencing the most rapid increase in temperatures.

To place that in perspective. From a line running through Australian waters from a point roughly halfway between Red Rock on the Clarence Coast and Corindi Beach on the Coffs Coast (NSW), right down to Tasmania and on towards Antarctica, seawater is heating and expanding until at latest measurement the reading over time now stands at 75.3 ± 4.

While from around Cape Leeuwin to Antarctica the reading is 43.2 ± 4.4.

On the Australian west coast the 30th Parallel can be thought of as running on a latitude approximately halfway between Leeman and Green Head (WA).

This study appears to indicate that, sooner rather than later, the considerable impacts of climate change will increase for the Australian population.

Nature Communications, Article number: 6888 (2023), 28 October 2023, excerpts:

Recentacceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode andintermediate waters

Authors: Zhi Li, Matthew H. England & Sjoerd Groeskamp

The ocean directly impacts the Earth’s climate by absorbing and redistributing large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and by exchanging these properties with the atmosphere1. About 91% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases and 31% of human emissions of carbon dioxide2 are stored in the ocean, shielding humans from even more rapid changes in climate. However, warmer oceans result in sea-level rise, ice-shelf melt, intensified storms, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, as well as more severe marine species and ecosystem damage. These effects depend on the pattern of ocean warming; it is thus critical to quantify the dynamics and distribution of ocean warming to better understand its consequences and predict its implications.

The observed distribution of ocean warming is not uniform. About 90% of total ocean warming is found in the upper 2000 m, with over two-thirds concentrated in the upper 700 since the 1950s, and an increase of warming rates at both intermediate depths of 700–2000 m, and in the deeper ocean below 2000 m. The Southern Ocean south of 30°S has been estimated to account for 35–43% of global ocean warming from 1970 to 2017, and an even greater proportion in recent years, while Northern Hemisphere ocean warming appears to be concentrated in the Atlantic Ocean. Due to the accumulated excess heat in ocean basins, an acceleration of total ocean warming has become more evident from recent observational-based studies. While much past work has focused on the distribution of ocean warming as a function of depth and basin, relatively little analysis has been undertaken of the distribution as a function of water-mass layers and within specific water masses. This is the focus of the present study......

When evaluating the ocean heat uptake for each decade (“Methods”), analysis of the past three decades reveals that the ocean heat uptake during 2010–2020 has increased more than 25% relative to 2000–2010 and has nearly doubled relative to the 1990’s WOCE era, as seen in Fig. 1b, where we highlight the decadal ocean heat uptake since the 1960s. Note that there has been both increased ocean sampling and a shift of the observational network from a ship-based system to the Argo network since the initiation of the global Argo array (2001–2003)34. This may impact the estimated increase in global ocean warming over the past three decades (Fig. 1). However, the rate of global mean sea-level rise has also been increasing since 1993 based on an independent estimate from satellite altimeter data1,35, providing confidence in our results given that half of the global sea surface height increase is due to thermal expansion of the ocean since altimeter measurements began. Significant ocean warming and accelerating OHC changes are also consistent with the increase in net radiative energy absorbed by Earth detected in satellite observations, something that is likely to continue throughout the 21st century in the absence of substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

The increased ocean warming is non-uniformly distributed across ocean basins. Overall, in each ocean basin, an increase in OHC is observed (values indicated in Fig. 2a, b), with stronger warming in the mid-latitude Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean compared with other basins. Total warming in the Southern Ocean is estimated to account for ~31% of the global upper 2000-m OHC increase from 1980–2000 to 2000–2010 (Fig. 2a), and almost half of the global OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020 (values indicated in parentheses of Fig. 2b). Hence the Southern Ocean has seen the largest increase in heat storage over the past two decades, holding almost the same excess anthropogenic heat as the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans north of 30°S combined (Fig. 2d). The most striking warming in the Southern Ocean is concentrated on the northern flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the location of deep mixed layers and subduction hotspots for Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water, as well as the location of subtropical mode waters formation further equatorward (Fig. 3). The well-ventilated regions near western boundary current extensions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific also reveal large warming over the past two decades. These hotspots of ocean warming are likely linked to enhanced uptake, subduction, and lateral spreading of heat associated with mode and intermediate waters that warrant further investigation.

Fig. 2: Regional intensification in ocean warming over the past two decades, 0–2000 m. Click on image to enlarge

The ensemble mean of ocean heat content (OHC) changes averaged for years a 2000–2010 and b 2010–2020, relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Units of shadings in panels (a, b) are shown as 109 J m−2. The values over each basin indicate the OHC increase relative to the 1980–2000 mean over the Southern (S.O., south of 30°S, dark-red line), Atlantic (ATL), Pacific (PAC), and Indian (IND) Oceans, and are limited to 65°S–65°N. Units are shown as 1021. The values in parentheses in panel (b) indicate the basin-integrated OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020. The basin mask used to distinguish ocean basins of the Southern, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans is obtained from ref.  Superimposed gray contours represent the positions of wintertime isopycnals 25, 26.45, 27.05, and 27.5 kg m−3 at 10 m depth from SIO RG-Argo. c, d Zonally integrated OHC change (1021 per degree latitude) versus latitude for the period 2000–2010 (blue line), and 2010–2020 (red line), relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Lines in panels (c) and (d) represent the ensemble mean, and shadings indicate the ±2 ensemble standard deviation uncertainty range (±2σ) of OHC changes.

[my yellow highlighting in the excerpts]

The full study can be read and downloaded at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z#ref-CR13

BUSHFIRE STATE OF PLAY NORTH-EAST NSW & NSW-QLD BORDER REGION: Last two days of October 2023

 

Across the afternoon, firegrounds were impacted by erratic and dangerous fire activity moving towards properties and through bushland. Firefighters have done an exceptional job combatting fires across the state. https://t.co/SwFG8PzKTA pic.twitter.com/QK73Qg2oF7

— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) October 31, 2023

 

Watch and Act: Glens Creek Rd, Nymboida (Clarence Valley LGA)
A fire continues to burn in the vicinity of Glens Creek Rd, Nymboida. The fire is currently spotting to the east. Residents near Armidale Rd in the Blaxlands Creek area should Prepare Now. https://t.co/8wmyJZmbXh pic.twitter.com/0monr1q37j

— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) October 31, 2023

Glens Creek Rd bushfire at night
Nymboida, Clarence Valley
IMAGE: NSWRFS

 

Bushfire lit night sky
 Coutts Crossing, Clarence Valley
IMAGE: supplied

 

 

 

As of 8am, there are 89 fires burning around NSW, with 27 not yet contained. There are currently 9 fires burning at a 'Watch and Act' level. It's important you monitor the changing conditions and stay up-to-date through Hazards Near Me and #RFS website: https://t.co/SwFG8PzKTA pic.twitter.com/V3Fap44CZK

— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) October 31, 2023

 

As southern Qld (black) & northern NSW (yellow & orange) wildfires begin to merge. NSWRFS fire map retrieved 1 Nov 2023 at 6:49am. Fire danger level moderate to high across northern NSW this morning. @YaThinkN @MinhKular @lynlinking @WgarNews pic.twitter.com/5PLkBGlZmW

— no_filter_Yamba (@no_filter_Yamba) October 31, 2023

 

1 November 2022:

The Bush Fire Danger Period is now in place for all local government areas around New South Wales, including along the southern border. If you’re planning on using fire on your property, you’ll need a permit. For more information, visit the #RFS website: http://rfs.nsw.gov.au/BFDP

Analysing large scale heat maps appearing on social media seeking small scale information - an example

 

This interesting temperature anomaly map appeared on social media on the evening of 25 October 2023:

It was accompanied by an observation that "Today 41.0C at Grafton NSW beats its October monthly temperature record"

Unfortunately this remark leads to some confusion as there are two official "real time" weather stations covering the wider Grafton district and none within the boundaries of Grafton City.  

On 25 October 2023 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recorded maximum air temperature at Grafton NSW as:

Grafton Ag Research Station – 41.0°C

{Trenayr NSW weather station 058077 commenced 1917} 

Grafton Airport AWS – 39.7°C

{Glenugie NSW weather station 058161 commenced 1973}

 

The recorded maximum temperature at BOM’s research centre weather station on 25 October 2023 did exceed its previous highest recorded maximum temperature for the month of October which was 40.6°C in 2019. 

The recorded temperature at BOM’s airport weather station on the same day also exceeded the highest recorded maximum temperature in October for that site of 38.9°C in 2017 and, it is this weather station's real time recording which is the basis of daily temperature reporting for Grafton generally. 

The highest temperature recorded for what might be considered Grafton City itself was 39.3°C in October 1988, but as Station 058130 on corner of Oliver & Turf streets only operated between 1966 and 10 Jan 2015 this is of limited value for comparison with maximum temperature records over time.

As both BOM recording units are some distance from the city's main urban population, perhaps as a public service Clarence Valley Council might consider installing a real time recording unit in the park adjoining its Grafton council chambers or a digital temperature display below the Market Square clock.

Surf's Up on NSW North Coast - but so are drownings

 

So Winter has turned to a warmer than usual Spring and a hotter than normal Summer is expected.

Here on the NSW North Coast it means that the number of people - locals and visitors - on the beaches and in the surf or swimming in quieter waters of river mouths and estuaries, is likely to be high this year.

However, it does well to remember that Australian Summer drowning deaths for 2022/23 were the highest for the last 3 years and we all need to take care that we don't become part of those statistics in 2023/24

In the three months between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023, 50 per cent of all drowning deaths that occurred across Australia were in coastal waterways (beaches, oceans, harbours and rocks) and 55 per cent of all drowning deaths occurred on weekends and public holidays.

The majority of drowning deaths from all causes in that three months were people aged between 0 to 64 years of age, with the average age for drowning deaths during the heatwave period being est. 52 years.

And it seems in New South Wales we need to take notice of every water safety rule we were ever taught. 

A worrying 40 per cent of all drowning happened in New South Wales as well as 31 per cent of all drowning deaths over the 9 day Christmas-New Year period 25 Dec 2022-2 Jan 2023.

A total of 55 coastal drowning deaths occurred in the state, with 45 per cent at the beach and 13 per cent off shore.

The Echo, 4 October 2023:

With the Surf Life Saving (SLSC) NSW season now underway (September 23, 2023 – April 25, 2024), the Byron Bay Surf Lifesaving Club are urging the community to be safety aware on beaches and waterways.

And both the Byron and Bruns Surf Lifesaving clubs are appealing for recruits to help make the beaches safe this summer.

‘Choosing a patrolled beach and swimming between the flags is the safest way to enjoy the ocean, and can save a life’, says Byron Club President, Paul Pattison. ‘Don’t forget to raise your hand if you’re in difficulty, so you can be seen.’

High drowning stats

‘In summer of 2022/23, there were 54 coastal drowning deaths, all of which occurred at unpatrolled locations. This equates to six drowning deaths every ten days of summer.

‘Byron Shire has recorded one of the highest numbers of coastal drowning deaths since 2013–23, and is now considered a blackspot (an area with a high probability/risk of ongoing reoccurrence).

‘Our coastline is a popular destination for tourists, and it’s essential to improve community awareness of our patrolled beaches.

‘We are hoping to recruit a further 20 patrol members to keep our beaches safe this summer. Members of the community who are interested in, or have previously held their bronze medallion are being encouraged to connect with their local surf club’, Pattison said.

To get involved, visit byronbaysurfclub.org and www.brunswickslsc.org.

BACKGROUND

ROYAL LIFE SAVING SUMMER DROWNING REPORT 2022/23

Every day one person died from drowning across summer, with a surge of deaths during the heat wave in February and a tragic Christmas – New Year holiday week pushing numbers up, the Royal Life Saving Summer Drowning Toll has revealed.

Last year flood-related drowning deaths caused a spike in deaths in February, but this year’s February death toll was even higher – with 31 deaths – despite there not being large-scale flooding in urban areas in 2023.

In total, 90 people lost their lives in Australian waterways and swimming pools between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023.

Tragically, 10 per cent of all drowning deaths this year were rescues gone wrong.

Royal Life Saving Society – Australia Chief Executive Officer Justin Scarr said the trends this year were deeply concerning.

“Last year was the worst year on record for summer drowning and we had hoped there would be a significant drop given there was fewer intense flood events this year, but drowning numbers are still too high,” Mr Scarr said.

“It’s supposed to be the happiest time of year, but between Christmas Day and January 2, when people gathered together across Australia 22 people drowned. That’s 22 families, friends and communities whose summer became a period of mourning.

“The heatwave in February also caused a spike in drowning, with 17 per cent of all drowning deaths over summer attributable to that six-day period.

“So many communities were affected by drowning this year, with significant increases in drowning in all states except for Queensland and Tasmania.

“Royal Life Saving continues to promote the need for local drowning prevention and water safety plans, targeting known drowning blackspots.

“We know that this is the tip of the iceberg. Many more non-fatal drowning incidents are likely to have occurred that aren’t recorded in publicly accessible data and so remain invisible.

“We need to get more people in our community getting back into their local pools brushing up on their skills, doing their Bronze Medallion if they’re planning to be at unpatrolled locations including rivers and lakes, and getting their children into learn to swim classes.”

For a full breakdown of NSW drownings in 2022, see: 

https://www.surflifesaving.com.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/09/2022-Surf-Life-Saving-NSW-Coastal-Safety-Report.pdf

The other shoe has finally dropped - El Niño has been declared by Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Click on image to enlarge

Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) currently exceed El Niño thresholds. International climate models suggest some further warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is likely. All surveyed models indicate SSTs will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the 2023–24 southern hemisphere summer.

Bureau long-range forecasts are for SSTs up to 2.5 °C warmer than average off eastern Tasmania and in the eastern Tasman Sea from October to the end of 2023.

Click on image to enlarge

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 19 September 2023:

ElNiño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole underway

An El Niño and a positive IOD are underway.

The declaration of these events, and their concurrence over spring, reinforces the Bureau's long-range rainfall and temperature forecasts, which continue to predict warmer and drier conditions for much of Australia over the next three months. The confirmation of an established El Niño increases the likelihood that the event will be sustained through the summer period.

Oceanic indicators firmly exhibit an El Niño state. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to exceed El Niño thresholds. Models indicate further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely.

Broadscale pressure patterns over the tropical Pacific reflect El Niño, with the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at −7.7. Recent trade wind strength has been generally close to average, but was slightly weaker than average across the tropical Pacific in August 2023 for the first time since January 2020.

Overall, there are signs that the atmosphere is responding to the pattern of SSTs in the tropical Pacific and coupling of the ocean and atmosphere has started to occur. This coupling is a characteristic of an El Niño event and is what strengthens and sustains an event for an extended period. Climate models indicate this El Niño is likely to persist until at least the end of February. El Niño typically leads to reduced spring and early summer rainfall for eastern Australia, and warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is underway. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is +1.25 °C for week ending 17 September. This is its fifth week above the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C). The longevity of this trend, combined with the strength of the dipole being observed and forecast, indicate a positive IOD event is underway. All models predict this positive IOD will persist to at least the end of spring. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.

When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak and is forecast to remain weak over the coming week.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently negative and is expected to remain negative for at least the coming week, before a possible return to neutral late in September. During spring, a negative SAM is associated with decreased rainfall across parts of the east in both NSW and Victoria, and increased rainfall over western Tasmania.

The long-rangeforecast for Australia indicates warmer and drier than average conditions are likely across most of southern and eastern Australia from October to December. The Bureau's climate model takes into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere when generating its long-range forecasts.

Global warming

Global warming continues to influence Australian and global climate. Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warmest on record for their respective months during April to August 2023. August 2023 SSTs were also the warmest globally for any month since observational records began in 1850. July and August 2023 were also respectively the hottest and second-hottest months globally in terms of 2-metre air temperature.

Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.48 ± 0.23 °C since national records began in 1910. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction, by 10 to 20%, in cool season (April to October) rainfall in recent decades. This is due to a combination of natural variability on decadal timescales and changes in large-scale circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Australia and the world are fast running out of time to limit negative impacts of climate change to spans of multiple generations rather than millennia

 

The United Nations website is very clear about what has been agreed at an international level concerning the global response required to limit the Earth’s global warming to an average 1.5°C, thereby limiting the negative impacts of climate change in intensity and time span – hopefully to spans of multiple generations rather than millennia.

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016.

Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Australia is a party to the 2015 Paris Agreement, effective 4 November 2016.

However, in recent years, world leaders have stressed the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century.

That’s because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

To limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030.

All those nations which entered into the Paris Agreement agreed to participate in the global attempt to reduce the world’s greenhouse gas emission by establishing firm undertakings in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries also communicate in their NDCs actions they will take to build resilience to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Australia submitted its first NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 2015 and updated that version of the NDC in 2022. This update commits Australia to reducing its emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. It should be noted that in 2005 Australia’s total national greenhouse gas emissions of 559.1 million tonnes of carbon equivalent gases (MT CO²-e) was already 102.2% of its 1990 annual total of 515.9 MT CO²-e.

It could be said that even now our national reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is sluggish at best.

"For the year to June [2023], according to the preliminary numbers from the government’s latest national greenhouse gas inventory, emissions were 4.1 million tonnes above those for the corresponding period the previous year." [The Saturday Paper, 08.09.23]

 

In the year to December 2015 Australia’s “annual unadjusted” greenhouse gas emissions stood at 529.2 MT CO²-e. An artificially constructed figure because per government policy it excluded emissions from from land use, land use change and forestry. These excluded emissions would have possibly added more than 1.0 MT CO²-e bringing the national annual total to over 30 MT CO²-e in 2015.

By year to December 2022 Australia’s “actual annual” greenhouse gas emissions were recorded as 463.9 MT CO²-e. A figure arrived at by an alleged fall in emissions from land use, land use change and forestry of est. -13.6 MT CO²-e due to professed reductions in land clearing and native forest harvesting, increases in plantations and native vegetation, and improvements in soil carbon. NOTE: By year to December 2022 each person in Australia was estimated to be responsible for 17.8 tonnes CO²-e of that year’s greenhouse gas emissions total.

What Australian governments and industries has effected was a paltry national greenhouse gas emissions change of est.

-65.3 MT CO²-e spread over eight years – an average of 8.1. Or est. -95.2 MT CO²-e spread over 17 years – an average of 5.6 MT CO²-e per annum. And that change was to a significant degree on the back of the adoption of rooftop renewable energy by the general population which in the year to December 2022 was contributing to an electricity sector emissions reduction of 5.5 MT CO²-e, according to the Dept. of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

Either way, leaving Australia with an urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least the promised -240.4 MT CO²-e within the next seven years. That’s roughly 34.3 MT CO²-e emissions we have to cease releasing into the air, waterways and oceans each and every year until 2030 to even have a chance at surviving as a nation and a functioning society beyond that year.

Creative accounting using offsets, hiding behind green washing propaganda, pushing hard decisions further down the track into the future, just won’t work. We need to immediately tighten polluting emissions regulations & abatement requirements, begin phasing out current unabated fossils greenhouse gas and, from this point in time where we stand right now, we must refuse all new or expanded proposals for fossil fuel extraction and use.

Australian industry and corporations both foreign and domestic are laughing in our faces and, federal & state governments appear all but frozen into inaction by the magnitude of the climate crisis before us. There will be no heroes coming down from the mountains to save us, no ships arriving to sail us all to as yet undiscovered safety, no divine miracles falling from the skies.

Australia’s estimated resident population stood at 26,268,359 men, women and children in December 2022 according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

An estimated 21,461,249 of the resident population in 2022 were individuals 15 years of age and older.

By default theirs is the burden of stopping that 240.4 MT CO²-e of additional pollution entering earth’s atmosphere over Australia by 2030. That’s an extra 11.2 tonnes CO²-e per person averaging 1.6 tonne of carbon equivalent a year.

So how do we each attempt to shoulder this terrible burden? 

"Key finding 4: global emissions are not in line with modelled global mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels." 

[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake, Advance Version 8 September 2023, excerpt]

 

PRINCIPAL SOURCES

• UN., Climate Change, retrieved 8 September 2023
• U.N., The Paris Agreement
• U.N., Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake. Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue, Advance Version 8 September 2023
• U.N., Nationally Determined Contributions Registry
• DCCEEW, Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts, 1990 onwards
• DCCEEW, National Inventory Reports
• DCCEEW, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly updates 2009-2023
• ABS, Australia's Environment: Issues and Trends, 2002 onwards
• ABS, Year Book Australia, 2005
• Our Word In Data, C02 Emissions
• Nature, Food, Global food-miles account for nearly 20% of total food-systems emissions, 15 December 2022

Postscript:

Stocktaking our personal emissions level and, looking at ways of reducing that average per head of population average green house gas emission excessive budget of 17.8 tonnes CO²-e, may be something we can all attempt. 

For example: 

• the average vehicle in Australia is estimated to travel 12,100 km per year or 33.2 km per day, which represents around 2.1 tonne CO²-e annually; 

• while the average household across all power supply types is estimated to consume 5,818.6kw/h of electricity each year, which can be as high as 3 tonne CO²-e annually depending on the mix of supply types per household; and

• imported food or imported ingredients have food transport kilometres attached, which in Australia's case means food importation from the European Union represents est. 1.3 MT CO²-e annually or approx. 50 kg CO²-e per capita. A serve of deli sausage from Denmark travels est. 25,000 food kilometres to reach the supermarket counter. 

Time to get cracking and shame the devils who brought us to this catastrophic pass - even if the task appears impossible and we merely so many cursed children of a condemned Sisyphus.