SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Four

Following on from:

• SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, 1-11 December 2021 
• SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Two 
• SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Three.

On 17 December 2021 NSW Health announced changes to its COVID-19 test, contact and trace system. From this point forward the individual who had a confirmed COVID-19 positive test will be informed of this fact by NSW Health but it will be the personal responsibility of the infected person to inform others in their family, friendship and workplace groups that they too may have contracted the virus.

NSW Health & Northern NSW Local Health District, based on media release excerpts and datasets, COVID-19 data for Friday, 17 December 2021:

# NSW recorded 2,482 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm on Friday 17 December 2021, including 1 death.

A total of 226 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern have been confirmed by the required additional testing in NSW. However, on the basis that specific genomic testing showed that 9.10% of Friday’s confirmed COVID-19 cases were caused by SARS-C0V-2 Omicron Variant. According to NSW Health all COVID-19 cases from this point forward will be assumed to be caused by the Omicron variant without initial variant specific investigation.

There are currently 206 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 26 people in intensive care, nine of whom require ventilation.

Across NSW, 93.3% of people aged 16 and over and 78% of people aged 12 to 15 years, are fully vaccinated.

• Of the 2,482 cases reported to 8pm last night, 899 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 362 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 286 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 232 are from Sydney LHD, 219 are from Western Sydney LHD, 159 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 81 are from Central Coast LHD, 62 are from Northern NSW LHD, 42 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 35 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 29 are from Western NSW LHD, 28 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 13 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, six are from Southern NSW LHD, and 29 are yet to be assigned to an LHD. [my yellow highlighting]

The total number of active COVID-19 cases now stands at 11,760 people – with est. 11,500 of these ill people remaining at home as of 17 December.

To 8pm 17 December, 62 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in 6 of the 7 local government areas in Northern NSW:

• Byron Shire – 46 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Ballina Shire – 8 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478; 

• Lismore City – 3 cases across postcodes 2480, 

• Clarence Valley – 2 cases across postcode 2460;

• Kyogle – 2 cases across postcode 2474;

• Tweed Shire – 1 case in postcode 2483;

• Richmond Valley – 0 cases.

TOTAL 62

There is one COVID-positive patient in hospital in Northern NSW.

To date, no cases in NNSWLHD have been confirmed as the Omicron variant of concern.

The most common locations for transmission of COVID-19 in our region continue to be pubs, parties and gatherings in indoor spaces.[my yellow highlighting]

BACKGROUND

UK Health Security Agency 1... by clarencegirl Click on symbol in lower righthand corner to enlarge

# NSW recorded 2,566 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Saturday, 18 December 2021.

A total of 313 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern have been confirmed by the required additional genomic sequencing tests. However, even though the Omicron variant caused just 12.19% of the 2,566 new cases that Friday; “NSW Health advises that the Omicron variant of concern likely accounts for the majority of today’s cases”.  

As at 18 December there are 14,050 active cases of COVID-19 in the state and est. 25,687 active cases Australia-wide.

There are currently 227 COVID-19 cases admitted to NSW hospitals, with 28 people in intensive care, ten of whom require ventilation. Australia-wide that number is est. 717 cases currently hospitalized.

To date the total number of persons in NSW confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 since January 2020 are 97,369 individuals, of whom 645 have died. According to the Australian Dept. of Heath, nationally that cumulative total of confirmed cases is 246,797 individuals of whom 2,142 have died. 

So as of 18 December 2021, 39.45% of all confirmed COVID-19 cases were recorded in New South Wales, along with 30.11% of all COVID-19 related deaths.

• Of the 2,566 cases reported to 8pm last night, 712 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 446 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 303 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 311 are from Sydney LHD, 279 are from Western Sydney LHD, 189 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 72 are from Central Coast LHD, 66 are from Northern NSW LHD, 50 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 31 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 37 are from Western NSW LHD, 23 are from Mid North Coast LHD, six are from Murrumbidgee LHD, seven are from Southern NSW LHD, one is from Far West LHD and 33 are yet to be assigned to an LHD. [my yellow highlighting]

To 8pm 18 December, 66 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in 5 of the 7 local government areas in Northern NSW:

• Byron Shire – 49 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Ballina Shire – 8 cases across postcodes 2478;

• Tweed Shire – 4 cases across postcodes 2484, 2487, 2489;

• Lismore City – 3 cases across postcode 2480; 

• Richmond Valley – 2 cases across postcodes 2469, 2473; 

• Clarence Valley – 0 cases

• Kyogle Shire – 0 cases

TOTAL 66

There are two COVID-19 infected patients in hospital in Northern NSW.

UPDATE

# NSW recorded 2,501 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Sunday 19 December 2021.

On 19 December the total of active COVID-19 cases in NSW was 16,225 persons.

There are currently 261 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 33 people in intensive care, 11 of whom require ventilation.

• Of the 2,501 cases reported to 8pm last night, 660 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 417 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 339 are from Sydney LHD, 315 are from Western Sydney LHD, 250 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 227 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 77 are from Central Coast LHD, 40 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 34 are from Northern NSW LHD, 24 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 24 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 20 are from Western NSW LHD, nine are from Murrumbidgee LHD, seven are from Far West LHD, four are from Southern NSW LHD, and 54 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

To 8pm 19 December, 34 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in 5 of the 7 local government areas of Northern NSW:

The following postcode list is incomplete due to corrupted/incomplete published dataset

• Byron Shire – 21 cases across postcodes 2481, 2482, 2483,

• Ballina Shire – 4 cases across postcodes 2478,

• Lismore City – 4 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480,

• Tweed Shire – 4 cases across postcodes 2484, 2489,

• Clarence Valley – 1 case across postcode

• Kyogle Shire – 0 cases

• Richmond Valley – 0 cases

TOTAL 34

There are five COVID-positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW.

*

SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Three

 

Following on from SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, 1-11 December 2021 and SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Two.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus entered Australia on 15 January 2020 and the country became part of a global pandemic. By 26 March that year there had been 2,779 confirmed cases of Covid-19 infections, 1,219 of which were recorded in New South Wales. At that point the national death toll stood at 13 individuals. 

By 15 June 2021 the cumulative national total of confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 30,274 cases, including 910 deaths. However, nationally the total number of active cases on that day was just 116 cases and only 27 of those 116 people were hospitalized.

It seemed as though Australia might have a good chance of beating the virus back by the end of 2021.

Then on 16 June 2021 the more infectious SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant was found to have entered Australia and daily infection numbers began to grow rapidly as the outbreak spread across New South Wales and Victoria and entered other states and territories. 

As at 3pm on 19 September 2021, the national cumulative total of confirmed COVID-19 cases had risen to 85,629 cases, including 1,162 deaths, and approximately 19,595 active cases. On 31 October 2021, that total had grown to 170,458 confirmed cases, including 1,734 deaths, and approximately 25,917 active cases. 

The Morrison Government announced that Australia's international border was reopening from 1 November 2021.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant was reported to have entered Australia at Sydney International Airport on 27 November 2021.

By 1 December, although the national cumulative total and death toll was still rising (211,655 cases including 2,011 deaths), the number of active cases was was falling (14,808) and hospital admissions stood at 532 individuals with 71 in intensive care. However by 15 December 2021 the numbers did not look as hopeful with a cumulative total of 235,562 confirmed cases of COVID-19 including 2,117 deaths and, approximately 18,025 active cases and 625 hospital admission with 109 in intensive care as of that Wednesday. At this point NSW had recorded 88,595 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 641 deaths since January 2020.

From one regional perspective this is the situation as it continues to unfold .....

On 15 December 2021 the NSW Perrottet Government reduced public health order restrictions to a minimum.

• Masks are only required on public transport and planes, at airports, in hospitals and healthcare facilities, and for indoor front-of-house hospitality staff who are not fully vaccinated

• No density limits for all settings

• COVID safety plans will be optional for businesses

• Fully vaccinated contacts only have to isolate until they receive a negative PCR result. However, household close contacts and close contacts in any other settings identified by NSW Health are still be required to isolate for seven days and comply with PCR testing requirements.

Based on NSW Health & Northern NSW Local Health District, media release excerpts, COVID-19 data for 15 -16 December 2021:

# NSW recorded 1,742 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm on Wednesday 15 December 2021.

A total of 122 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern have been confirmed in NSW.

There are currently 192 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 26 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation.

Across NSW, 93.3% of people aged 16 years and over and 77.8% of people 12 to 15 years of age are fully vaccinated.

• Of the 1,742 cases reported to 8pm last night, 633 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 231 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 188 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 166 are from Western Sydney LHD, 159 are from Sydney LHD, 111 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 81 are from Northern NSW LHD, 43 are from Central Coast LHD, 38 are from Western NSW LHD, 28 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 23 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 14 are from Mid North Coast LHD, five are from Murrumbidgee LHD, four are from Far West LHD, three are from Southern NSW LHD, and 15 are yet to be assigned to an LHD. [ my yellow highlighting]

To date in December 2021 a total of 294 Northern NSW residents have become infected with COVID-19.

To 8pm 15 December, the 81 new cases of COVID-19 in Northern NSW were in 6 of the 7 local government areas in the region:

• Byron Shire – 65 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Ballina Shire – 9 cases across postcodes 2477 & 2478;

• Lismore City – 4 cases across postcode 2480;

• Richmond Valley – 1 case in postcode 2470;

• Tweed Shire – 1 case possibly in postcode 2487;

• Clarence Valley – 1 case in postcode 2460.

TOTAL 81

# NSW recorded 2,213 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Thursday 16 December 2021, including 1 death. 

A total of 185 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern have been confirmed in NSW to date .

There are currently 215 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation. 

Across NSW, 93.3% of people aged 16 & over and 77.9% of people aged 12 to15 years are fully vaccinated. 

• Of the 2,213 cases reported to 8pm last night, 674 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 279 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 266 are from Western Sydney LHD, 261 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 204 are from Sydney LHD, 165 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 96 are from Northern NSW LHD, 88 are from Central Coast LHD, 32 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 30 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 29 are from Western NSW LHD, 25 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, 25 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, seven are from Southern NSW LHD, four are from Far West LHD, and 28 are yet to be assigned to an LHD. [my yellow highlighting]

Due to infection numbers continuing to grow, on 16 December the official stress level for the entire NSW public hospital system had reached RED status once more.

To 8pm on 16 December, 96 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in 5 of the 7 local government areas in Northern NSW:

• Byron Shire – 57 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Ballina Shire – 18 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

• Lismore City – 9 cases across postcode 2480;

• Tweed Shire – 8 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2487, 2489;

• Clarence Valley – 4 cases across postcodes 2464, 2465, & possibly 2460;

• Richmond Valley – 0 cases;

• Kyogle – 0 cases.

TOTAL 96

There is currently one COVID-positive patient in hospital in Northern NSW.

To date, no cases in NNSWLHD have been confirmed as the Omicron variant of concern.

On 16 December 2021 NSW Health tweeted that it had "temporarily restricted visitors to healthcare facilities due to increasing transmission rates with the emergence of the Omicron variant....Local Health Districts will apply a risk assessment to allow local exemptions on a case-by-case basis. Any person permitted to visit must be fully vaccinated, agree to wear a mask and follow advice from healthcare staff."*

SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW & Northern NSW, 1 -11 December 2021

 

In the week ending 17 June 2021: community transmission of COVID-19 stood at 4 new cases; across the state there were only 41 active cases remaining, the average infection growth factor was 1.33; only 1 infected person was currently hospitalized with another 36 being cared for in the community; and, only 3 out of the state's 15 local health districts had recorded confirmed COVID-19 cases during those 7 days.

Life seemed so straightforward then as it appeared that New South Wales might just be starting to turn an epidemiological corner.

However, that particular June community transmission number represented the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Outbreak and, due to mismanagement by both the Australian & NSW governments, that variant infection spread with ease across Greater Sydney. Weekly case numbers for locally acquired infections rising into their thousands and hospitalizations mounting.  

Although infection and hospitalisation numbers eventually fell, even now new community transmission case numbers still hover somewhere between one & two thousand over a 7 day period.

So where does the NSW population stand in relation to SARS-CoV-2 and its Delta and Omicron variants, now that est. 93.1% of those 16 years of age to 90 years & over are fully vaccinated and est. 77.7% of those 12 to 15 years of age are fully vaccinated and public health order restrictions are fast vanishing.

NSW Health & Northern NSW Local Health District, media release excerpts, COVID-19 data for 1 December to 11 December 2021:

# NSW recorded 271 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 1 December 2021. The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW remains at 6. There are currently 144 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, 10 of whom require ventilation. The number of COVID-19 infected people being cared for outside a hospital setting was 2,112 cases as at 1 December - up from 2,058 on 23 November 2021.

• Two new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 1 December. These cases are located in the Grafton and Yamba areas of Clarence Valley Local Government Area, and both are under investigation.

# NSW recorded 337 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 2 December 2021. There is now a total of 9 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 140 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, 10 of whom require ventilation.

• One new case of COVID-19 was reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 2 December. The case is located in the Lismore Local Government Area and is linked to an existing case. Northern NSW Local Health District can also confirm that two additional cases have been confirmed in travellers to the region visiting Byron Bay. These cases are not included in NNSWLHD’s case tally, and contact tracing is underway.

# NSW recorded 325 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 3 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 13 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW, and results on further likely cases are due later today. There are currently 139 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation.

• Three new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 3 December. One case is located in Grafton, the source is under investigation. One case is located in the Ballina LGA, a household contact of a confirmed case. One case is located in Byron Bay, a household contact of a confirmed case. Northern NSW Local Health District can also confirm that one additional case has been confirmed in a traveller to the region, who has been visiting Byron Bay. This case is not reflected in NNSWLHD’s case tally as the infection was acquired elsewhere.

# NSW recorded 286 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 4 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 15 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW, and results on further likely cases are due later today. There are currently 148 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 26 people in intensive care, five of whom require ventilation.

• Three new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 4 December. One case is in Lismore and the source is under investigation. Two cases are located in Byron Bay, one of which is under investigation and the other is linked to a known case.

# NSW recorded 208 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 5 December 2021 night. There is now a total of 25 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 152 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, five of whom require ventilation.

No NNSWLHD media release available for 5 December 2021.

# NSW recorded 260 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 6 December 2021, including 2 deaths. There is now a total of 31 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 155 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 28 people in intensive care, five of whom require ventilation.

• One new case of COVID-19 was reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 6 December. The case is located in the Kingscliff area of Tweed Local Government Area, and was acquired interstate.

# NSW recorded 403 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 7 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 34 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 151 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, seven of whom require ventilation. The number of COVID-19 infected people being cared for outside a hospital setting was 2,362 cases as at 7 December - up from 2,112 on 1 December 2021.

• Eight new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 7 December. Of these cases, six are located in the Byron Local Government Area (LGA), and two are located in the Tweed LGA. All are linked to known cases, and one is a household contact of an existing case.

# NSW recorded 420 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm on 8 December 2021, including 1 death. There is now a total of 42 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 151 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation.

• 11 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 8 December. Of these cases, eight are located in the Byron Local Government Area (LGA), one in the Ballina LGA, one in Lismore LGA, and one in Tweed LGA. Nine of the 11 cases are linked to existing cases, and two are under investigation.

# NSW recorded 516 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 9 December 2021. The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW remains at 42. There are currently 158 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, nine of whom require ventilation.

• 21 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 9 December. Of the cases, 13 were in the Byron Local Government Area, 4 in the Lismore LGA, 3 in the Ballina LGA, and 1 in the Tweed LGA. 20 of the 21 cases are linked to an existing case or cluster. One of the cases in the Lismore LGA is under investigation. A further 8 cases have now been linked to the Coorabell Hall event on Saturday 4 December, making 16 in total. A further two cases are now linked to the Woody’s Surf Shack Night Club, making a total of 3.

# NSW recorded 560 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm 10 December 2021, including 3 deaths. There is a total of 45 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant in NSW. There are currently 150 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 25 people in intensive care, eight of whom require ventilation.

• 35 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 10 December. Of the cases, 23 were in the Byron Local Government Area, 2 in the Lismore LGA, 8 in the Ballina LGA, and 2 in the Tweed LGA. 30 of the 35 cases are linked to an existing case or cluster. One case in the Ballina LGA, one case in the Tweed LGA, two cases in Byron LGA and one case in Lismore LGA remain under investigation. NNSWLHD is seeing an increase in cases in the Byron Bay region, and the majority of them are associated with venues including pubs, clubs and party settings.

# NSW recorded 485 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm, 11 December 2021, including 2 deaths. There is a total of 55 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern in NSW. There were 10 new cases confirmed with the Omicron variant overnight, and more are expected as results of genomic testing are confirmed. To date, one Omicron case has been admitted to hospital in NSW for treatment of COVID-19. There are currently 156 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 23 people in intensive care, seven of whom require ventilation. 

• 30 new cases of COVID-19 were reported for Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) in the 24 hours to 8pm 11 December.

  Of the cases, 18 were in the Byron Local Government Area, 4 in the Lismore LGA, 6 in the Ballina LGA, 1 in the Tweed LGA and 1 in the Richmond Valley LGA. 21 of the 30 cases are linked to an existing case or cluster. Three cases in the Ballina LGA, one case in the Tweed LGA, three cases in Byron LGA, one case in Lismore LGA and one case in the Richmond Valley LGA remain under investigation. To date no cases in NNSWLHD have been identified as the Omicron variant.

There are 7 local government areas in the Northern NSW Local Health District. All 7 of these areas have experienced community transmission of COVID-19 infections in the three months since the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Outbreak first reached Northern NSW.

In the first 11 days of December 2021 the region has been experiencing new COVID-19 infections roughly equivalent to 10.45 new cases per day. 

This represents a surge in local infection numbers which had begun to grow once the NSW Perrottet Government opened regional NSW to travellers from Greater Sydney which itself remains a significant source of COVID-19 community infection, as well as to travellers from elsewhere in NSW and interstate. 

However it is impossible to calculate how many people have travelled into Northern NSW whilst infectious, as abruptly on 19 November 2021 NSW Premier Perrottet removed from public view the dataset which reliably tracked sources of confirmed COVID-19 infections by postcode, local health district and local government area.

UPDATE:

ABC News, 12  December 2021:

The Reff [infection rate] currently stands at 1.38, a jump from 1.25 just a couple of days ago — and in line with the "bell-shaped curve" expected in epidemics.

"So what we're seeing now is typically that initial rise in cases which we saw at the start of the previous wave, so it's definitely going to be a wave coming up," Professor Esterman said.

"The effective reproduction number is now as high as it's been since the 23rd of August and the doubling time for case numbers is 14 days, so every 14 days the number of cases is going to double at the current rate."

He also said a peak in cases would likely not happen until February. 

The rate of hospitalisations is the one bit of "good news" remaining stable over recent weeks with yesterday's figure of 150 slightly lower than previous days. .....

Older Women's Network's letter to the editor: "...we are sick of being treated like we don’t matter. We are fed up with our lives being viewed as expendable"

 

"Not only are so many older people I know very anxious about catching COVID because we value our lives, we are sick of being treated like we don’t matter. We are fed up with our lives being viewed as expendable".
President of National OWN's Letter to https://t.co/eNKYO7IdVu pic.twitter.com/M1QjuGjMRa

— OWN NSW (@age_no_barrier) December 30, 2021

 

Entering December 2021 and the origins & nature of the Omicron Variant are as clear as mud. Global concern mounts. Australia's total number of Omicron cases stands at 6 people

IMAGE: ALJAZERRA, 30 November 2021

Just two days ago Scott Morrison stood in front of the cameras:

Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Infrastructure, Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Minister for Women, Minister for Health and Aged Care, Minister for Home Affairs, Joint Media Statement, 29 November 2021, excerpt:

On the basis of medical advice provided by the Chief Medical Officer of Australia, Professor Paul Kelly, the National Security Committee has taken the necessary and temporary decision to pause the next step to safely reopen Australia to international skilled and student cohorts, as well as humanitarian, working holiday maker and provisional family visa holders from 1 December until 15 December.

The reopening to travellers from Japan and the Republic of Korea will also be paused until 15 December.

The temporary pause will ensure Australia can gather the information we need to better understand the Omicron variant, including the efficacy of the vaccine, the range of illness, including if it may generate more mild symptoms, and the level of transmission.

Australia’s border is already closed to travellers except fully vaccinated Australian citizens, permanent residents and immediate family, as well as fully vaccinated green lane travellers from New Zealand and Singapore and limited exemptions.

All arrivals to Australia also require a negative PCR test and to complete Australian traveller declaration forms detailing their vaccination status and confirming requirements to comply with state and territory public health requirements…..

New Zealand currently has a LEVEL 4 (RED) Travel Advisory Alert on Australia warning that if its citizens travel they may have difficulty with being allowed back into New Zealand at a future date and, since 8 November 2021 Singapore has allowed fully vaccinated travellers from Australia to enter Singapore without quarantine, for all purposes of travel.

It is possible that both countries may temporarily close their borders to Australia if community transmission of the Omicron Variant begins in New South Wales.

However, as a suspicion grows around the world that the Omicron Variant has been 'in the wild' for much longer than originally suspected and its community transmission masked by cases being misdiagnosed as Delta Variant, border closures at this stage are thought unlikely to keep SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant out of a country. Rather such closures might at this point only slow down the international mobility of this variant.

Then there is this.....

Reuters, 30 November 2021:

SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The head of drugmaker Moderna (MRNA.O) said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been previously, sparking fresh worry in financial markets about the trajectory of the pandemic.

"There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta," Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview.

"I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good.'"

Vaccine resistance could lead to more sickness and hospitalisations and prolong the pandemic, and his comments triggered selling in growth-exposed assets like oil, stocks and the Australian dollar.

Bancel added that the high number of mutations on the protein spike the virus uses to infect human cells meant it was likely the current crop of vaccines would need to be modified.

He had earlier said on CNBC that it could take months to begin shipping a vaccine that does work against Omicron.

BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson have all begun working on vaccines that specifically target Omicron in case their existing COVID-19 vaccines are not effective against the new variant.

In Australia the Morrison Government is not yet acknowledging this situation but rather arguing about whether or not to bring forward booster shots of the COVID-19 vaccines as a way of countering Omicron Variant infection.

On 30 November 2021 Australia's total number of known SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant cases stood at six individuals.

BACKGROUND

World Health Organisation, WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the Special Session of the World Health Assembly - 29 November 2021, excerpt:

More than any humans in history, we have the ability to anticipate pandemics, to prepare for them, to unravel the genetics of pathogens, to detect them at their earliest stages, to prevent them spiralling into global disasters, and to respond when they do.

And yet here we are, entering the third year of the most acute health crisis in a century, and the world remains in its grip.

This pestilence – one that we can prevent, detect and treat – continues to cast a long shadow over the world.

Instead of meeting in the aftermath of the pandemic, we are meeting as a fresh wave of cases and deaths crashes into Europe, with untold and uncounted deaths around the world.

And although other regions are seeing declining or stable trends, if there’s one thing we have learned, it’s that no region, no country, no community and no individual is safe until we are all safe.

The emergence of the highly-mutated Omicron variant underlines just how perilous and precarious our situation is.

South Africa and Botswana should be thanked for detecting, sequencing and reporting this variant, not penalized.

Indeed, Omicron demonstrates just why the world needs a new accord on pandemics: our current system disincentivizes countries from alerting others to threats that will inevitably land on their shores.

We don’t yet know whether Omicron is associated with more transmission, more severe disease, more risk of reinfections, or more risk of evading vaccines. Scientists at WHO and around the world are working urgently to answer these questions.

We shouldn’t need another wake-up call; we should all be wide awake to the threat of this virus.

But Omicron’s very emergence is another reminder that although many of us might think we are done with COVID-19, it is not done with us. ……

Full speech can be read here.

World Health Organisation, 29 November 2021:

Risk Assessment

 Given mutations that may confer immune escape potential and possibly transmissibility advantage, the likelihood of potential further spread of Omicron at the global level is high.

Depending on these characteristics, there could be future surges of COVID‐19, which could have severe consequences, depending on a number of factors including where surges may take place. The overall global risk related to the new VOC Omicron is assessed as very high.