Australian Bureau of Meteorology partners with European Centre to ensure more eyes on Earth

 

Copernicus Sentinel Satellites providing all weather, day & night Earth-observation data to feed into a range of services for monitoring weather, land & ocean environments and supporting civil security activities. IMAGE: The European Space Agency

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, media release, 16 February 2024:

The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) has signed an agreement with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on collaboration, data and knowledge sharing and capability exchange programs.

A five-year strategic relationship agreement was signed this week by the Bureau's CEO and Director, Dr Andrew Johnson, and the Centre's Director-General, Dr Florence Rabier.

The Bureau has been invited to work with ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s space programme and includes satellite and in situ observations combined with expert modelling to provide services such as the Climate Change Service implemented by ECMWF.

“Under this agreement we are adding long-range global forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – also known as ACCESS – to the Copernicus multi-model global ensemble. ACCESS will join other world-leading models, demonstrating the importance of scientific collaboration and of Australia’s contribution to the international community," Dr Rabier said.

“This is an important ongoing partnership for ECMWF, the benefits of which will be felt worldwide in the ensemble forecasts produced. It will also lead to further improvements in weather and climate modelling and research conducted in Europe and Australia.”

ACCESS is the Bureau's extended and long-range forecast system. It is a state-of-the-art dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system, which uses ocean, atmosphere, ice and land observations to initiate forecasts for the season ahead.

There are eight contributors to the ECMWF Copernicus multi-system global ensemble and the addition of the Bureau's ACCESS forecasts brings this total to nine.

"This new agreement enables the Bureau to access more comprehensive data from some of the world’s best forecast models to support and improve its own services," Dr Johnson said.

"It also provides more opportunities for joint research projects exploring weather and climate impacts in the southern hemisphere and around the globe."

"This is a huge accomplishment for the Bureau and Australia. The benefits of this partnership will lead to future improvements in Australian weather and climate products and services for the benefit of the Australian community."

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 35 states. It is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. The ECMWF was established in 1975 and its purpose – then as now – was to pool Europe's meteorological resources to produce accurate climate data and medium-range forecasts - ECMWF |Advancing global NWP through international collaboration. It implements the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service on behalf of the European Commission. Homepage | Copernicus.

The Bureau of Meteorology is Australia's national weather, climate, oceans, water and space weather agency. Its expertise and services assist Australians in dealing with the harsh realities of their natural environment, including drought, floods, fires, storms, tsunami and tropical cyclones. Through regular forecasts, warnings, monitoring and advice spanning the Australian region and Antarctic territory, the Bureau provides one of the most fundamental and widely used services of government - Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)

CLIMATE CRISIS ANALYSIS: “2023 has broken so many records that a number of new hypotheses, including the dawn of a new phase in the global warming rate, have been floated "

 

Starting 2024 the way we ended 2023.........

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE PERSPECTIVE

ABC News (Australia), 8 February 2024:

Global temperatures through January were the warmest on record at 1.66 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The month was 0.12C above the previous warmest January in 2020 and extends the run of record warm months to eight, following similar unprecedented temperatures from June to December last year.

Monthly Global Temperature Anomaly

Relative to pre-industrial 1850-1900 baseline

The greatest anomalies last month were seen across eastern Canada and south-west Asia where temperatures were nearly 5C above the 1991-2020 average.

Australia's mean was 1.54C above the 1961-1990 baseline average, making it the country's third warmest January on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The run of abnormal heat has now lifted the 12-month for the first time.

With the target now temporarily breached, a permanent rise above 1.5C is now projected to arrive in less than 10 years.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the agency was "sounding the alarm" that the world would "breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency".

Oceans simmering - warm enough for a tropical cyclone off the NSW coast

The average global sea surface temperature (SST) was also at unprecedented levels last month, a staggering 0.26C warmer than the previous January record in 2016 and only 0.01°C off the all-time record from August 2023.

The heat observed in the world's oceans has been a notable feature of the climate during the past year – passing global monthly records for 10 consecutive months.

The record run is almost certain to reach 11 months as the Earth's water temperature is currently running at levels well beyond all previous years — daily SSTs climbed to 21.05C this week, more than 0.2C above the previous February high and above the previous all-time high of 21.02C from August 2023.

The warm global waters are also being felt off Australia's east coast.

Data from the Climate Change Institute shows parts of the northern Tasman Sea are currently as much as 3C above average at around 28C - equal to a typical summer water temperature off the tropical Queensland coast.

The waters are so warm right now off the NSW north coast they could theoretically support the formation of a tropical cyclone, exceeding the threshold for development of 26.5C.

While enough evaporation is occurring for a cyclone to form off the NSW coast, they require numerous additional ingredients which are currently absent.

Climate change the main driver of records

Historical data shows than even though El Niño increases global temperatures, the trend during the past 12 months is well outside the typical warming.

"Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing," Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service Samantha Burgess said.

However, considering the year after El Niño forms is typically warmer than the previous year, there is a good chance 2024 will end up beating the recent record warm 2023.

Out of the past 15 El Niño episodes, 13 led to a rise in the Earth's air temperature in the second year.

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PERSPECTIVE

The Guardian (UK), 7 February 2024:

From deadly floods in California to devastating fires in Chile, scientists say the world is not prepared for the climate disasters that are hitting with increasing frequency as human-driven global heating continues to break records.

The hottest year in history has been followed by the warmest ever January. Many regions in the northern hemisphere are sweltering in heatwaves that would be more normal in June. Marine scientists are shocked by the prolonged and intense heat at the surface of the oceans.

Scientists say the extreme heat is mostly the result of human activity, such as the burning of oil, gas and coal and the cutting down of forests. This has been amplified by natural factors, particularly the El Niño – a phenomenon associated with Pacific Ocean warming – that started last year and is expected to continue until spring at the earliest.

This year has a one in three chance of being even hotter than last year’s record, according to the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The higher the global temperature, the greater the risk of fires and flooding. This month alone has seen two grim records of such climate-related disasters.

The Chilean president, Gabriel Boric, has declared two days of national mourning after the country’s deadliest ever forest fires claimed more than 120 lives in the Valparaíso region. This follows a decade-long drought in the area and a shift from diverse natural forests, which are more resilient to fire, to monoculture plantations, which are more vulnerable.

In the US, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, announced a state of emergency as an “atmospheric river” – which was supercharged by the unusually warm Pacific Ocean – dumped unprecedented amounts of rain on San Diego and neighbouring districts, killing at least three people.

Attribution studies will be needed to ascertain the precise extent to which these particular calamities were drive by human-driven climate disruption, but they are in line with a broader trend towards increasingly severe impacts.

“Fuelled by extreme weather and climate extremes, the frequency of climate-related disasters has dramatically risen in recent years,” said Raul Cordero, a climate professor at the University of Groningen and the University of Santiago. “In some regions of the world, we are facing climate-fuelled disasters for which we are not prepared, and it is unlikely that we will be able to fully adapt to them.”

Richard Betts, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in the UK, said many extremes, including longer heatwaves, heavier rainfall, increased drought and more fire weather, were becoming more severe due to human-caused climate change.

“We can still limit the extent to which extremes get worse if we urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero – but with global emissions still rising, it’s hard not to be increasingly concerned about how we will deal with what’s coming,” Betts said. “We already need to adapt to the changes that we’ve already caused, and adaptation will become increasingly difficult the longer we leave it to reduce emissions.”

Of prime concern is what is happening to the oceans, which cover 71% of the planet and absorb most of the excess heat from global warming. In a letter published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Science last month, a group of scientists warned that sea surface temperatures last year were “off the chart”, with dire implications for atmospheric regulation and storm intensity.....

Guglielmo said scientists were now considering risks that had been unthinkable until recently. “2023 has broken so many records that a number of new hypotheses, including the dawn of a new phase in the global warming rate, have been floated. These hypotheses were not nearly as prevalent a year ago.”

Climate Change Australia 2024 - the elephant in the room that all three tiers of Australian government are failing to address - the indoor heat in metropolitan & regional urban areas

 

Although science had been warning about a marked global land-sea surface warming trend for longer, it wasn't until around 1972 that a global conversation about anthropomorphic global warming or climate change began.

This conversation began to formalize under the auspices of the United Nations and by 1988 its member states, including Australia, were broad brush level aware of the timeline and scale science was predicting.

Over the years since, science has been pointing at Australia when calculating where the impacts of climate change would first be felt in a recognizable and widespread way.

Between 1983 and 2022 there had been four Liberal Party prime ministers leading federal Coalition governments setting national policy and legislation (across a combined of total of just over 20 years) and four Labor prime minister leading federal Labor governments setting national policy and legislation (across a combined of total of just over 18 years).

Over that same 39 year time frame New South Wales has had six Liberal premiers and six Labor premiers.

During all these years it was only between 2007 to 2012 that an Australian federal government could be seen as genuinely attempting (and often failing) to set the nation on the path to reduce the nation's CO2-e emissions.

Since 22 May 2022 Australia has once more a Labor prime minister and federal government setting national policy and legislation for the last 625 days, as well as another NSW Labor state premier and government setting state policy and legislation for the last 316 days.

One of the early Albanese Government decisions was to create the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW), with the ministers having portfolio responsibility identified as Chris Bowen, Minister for Climate Change and Energy & Tanya Plibersek, Minister for the Environment and Water.

The webpage transcript excerpt set at the end of this post is one aspect of information shared online by the DCCEEW which is barely mentioned by the media or NSW federal & state members of their respective parliaments.

It is certainly not information which has translated into action at state or local government planning level in any meaningful way in New South Wales.

This was New South Wales between 1 January to 5 February 2024:

Click on images to enlarge

This was the Australian Bureau of Meteorology NSW Heatwave Map on 3 February 2024:

Look around your town or village and count how many houses built in the last 20 years which appear to have been constructed to a design that will be likely to cope with the predicted increasing number of  days per year of maximum heatwave conditions of 35°C and over.

If your count is so low in the streets near you that it shocks, perhaps now is the time to insist that at federal, state and local government level a new mandatory building code be implemented which requires as part of development consent conditions:  (i) passive building design; (ii) indoor temperature-mitigating building material use; and (iv) subdivisions layouts and streetscapes which avoid heat island effects.

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (est. July 2022), Your Home, "Australia's Guide To Environmentally Adaptable Homes", excerpt:

Designing for climate change

You can design or renovate your home to take into account the sort of climate impacts you expect to be most relevant for your area.

Temperature increase and heatwaves

One of the main expected effects of global climate change across Australia is increasing temperatures and a greater number of extremely hot days (CSIRO and BOM 2020). Australian households need to consider how they can adapt to maintain comfort, manage household energy costs, and reduce the risk of heat stress and heat-related illness and mortality.

The need to keep your home cool during the summer months will be greater. On the other hand, there should be less need to heat the home in winter. Good passive design can lessen the need to rely on air-conditioners and help to capture the savings from lowered heating energy needs.

Consider the impact of increased numbers of heatwaves in your region. Over the past several decades, heatwaves have increased in duration, frequency and intensity in many parts of Australia (Steffen et al. 2019). New homes are not typically constructed to provide maximum protection from heatwaves as standard. In urban areas, tree canopy cover is decreasing as development intensifies. Urban areas may be particularly prone to heatwave conditions because of the ‘heat island’ effect, in which the abundance of heat-absorbing materials such as concrete, and lack of vegetation, increases their temperature compared with the surrounding area. Good tree canopy and other vegetation around your home and neighbourhood can reduce the impact of the urban heat island effect (see Green roofs and walls).

In addition, electricity demand rises sharply during heatwaves because of increased air-conditioning usage, contributing to blackouts. Excess peak demand drives up electricity prices, making air-conditioning use during heatwaves too expensive for some low-income households.

The NCC heating and cooling load limits under the NatHERS compliance pathway assist to keep homes at a comfortable temperature year-round. The load limits have been developed using the 2022 NatHERS climate files based on historical weather data, and the requirements change depending on which climate zone the home is built in.....

Tip

In the early stage of design, decide if your home will be air-conditioned, naturally ventilated, or a combination. This will affect further design decisions including the type and level of insulation.

Overall, adapting to cope with increased temperatures requires appropriate heat-resistant building materials and design. Key design strategies include:

• orientating living rooms appropriately and using shading to minimise summer heat gain

• using thermal mass appropriately

• locating bedrooms in the coolest part of the building and using insulation, shading and so on to ensure comfortable temperatures for sleeping

• providing opportunities for night-time ventilation, including natural ventilation and mechanical systems

• using light-coloured roofs and ‘cool roof’ technology (specially designed roofing materials and coatings with high solar reflectance and thermal emittance)

• creating a ‘cool retreat’ – a portion of the dwelling designed to provide comfort during heatwave periods. This could be a shaded, ventilated room or basement that is well insulated and able to be closed off from warmer parts of the house so it can be efficiently air-conditioned

• using cooling technologies powered by renewable energy

• using landscape to decrease the need for cooling (for example, by shading, channelling cool breezes, lowering surface temperatures).

Refer to Passive cooling for more information on cooling design strategies....     [my yellow highlighting]

Magistrate finds guilty climate activists to have ‘muscular good character due to their strong records of community service ’

 

Echo, 30 January 2024:

More than thirty climate activists controversially charged under NSW laws are free to continue life without penalty after their matters were heard in the Newcastle Local Court last week.

Police arrested 109 activists at the 12th Rising Tide anti-coal blockade of Newcastle Port late last year when the protest continued past the officially permitted time.

Officers said afterward they would allege in court some protesters deliberately entered the harbour channel after the permitted end time for the protest at 4pm on the Sunday, after three days of protests, despite police warnings and directions.

Protestors this week said police had subsequently charged 99 people with s14a of the Maritime Safety Act, Unreasonable interference by operation or use of vessel.

Twenty-one activists reportedly received convictions in the first related court hearing on 11 January while no convictions were recorded for another 40.

Last Friday, charges against 36 protestors were heard in the Newcastle Local Court, with the case against one, who was pleading not guilty, adjourned until 15 February.

Magistrate finds guilty climate activists to have ‘muscular good character’

Byron Shire climate and housing advocate Chels Hood-Withey on Monday said the other 35 protestors pleaded guilty, with five receiving convictions.

Many had their charges handled under a ‘Section 10A’ in NSW law effectively allowing for groups of people facing similar or the same minor charges to receive the one judicial finding.

Ms Hood-Withey said neither she, nor many of the other protestors pleading guilty in Newcastle Local Court, received a penalty or recording of the offence.

Magistrate John Chicken told the court protestors had ‘noble intentions, albeit they ended up in an infraction of the law,’ Ms Hood-Withey told The Echo.

‘They were motivated by selflessness and a genuine concern for the climate and the future of the earth,’ Magistrate Chicken was quoted as saying.

He characterised the defendants, aged 24 and 71, as being of ‘muscular good character due to their strong records of community service’......

Returning to the matters heard in Newcastle last week that protestors said included five Northern Rivers residents, Ms Hood-Withey said many represented themselves.

Some had the support of the Environmental Defenders Office, she said.

Several opted to enter their guilty pleas through the court’s online system and didn’t have to face court in person.

There were no conditions placed on their release from the court matters......

Read the full article here.

Note:

John Chicken was appointed to the bench of the NSW Local Court by NSW Attorney General John Hatzistergos in 2009, after practicing law in New South Wales for 21 years with a strong background in criminal law having appeared extensively as a criminal advocate in the Local, District and Supreme Court of NSW.

SEA LEVEL RISE 2024 : It's later than you think

Most of what we the general public think we know about sea level rise calculations by inundation height and rate is derived from models which did not anticipate global land and sea surface temperatures accelerating as sharply as they have in the last two years nor thought that an average annual global temperature anomaly of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was quite literally just around the corner.

So it is highly possible that what is quoted below by way of text and maps is an underestimation of what the Australian East Coast will begin to experience between now and 2030. While it is also likely that the most common established timelines of climate change milestones which run out to 2100 will be truncated to a marked degree.

UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), AR6 Synthesis Report (2020-23), Headline Statements, excerpt:

Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios and modelled pathways. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards (high confidence).

AdaptNSW, excerpt, retrieved 15 January 2024:

IPCC modelling suggests slightly higher sea level rise to the north of the state and slightly lower to the south. These projections do not include processes associated with the melting of ice sheets which for NSW could result in sea level rise of up to 2.3m by 2100 and 5.5m by 2150.

In the longer term, the IPCC show sea level is committed to rise for centuries to millennia due to continuing deep ocean warming and ice sheet melt, and will remain elevated for thousands of years.

• If warming is limited to 1.5°C, global mean sea level will rise by about 2 to 3m.

• for 2°C, 2 to 6m is expected, and

• for 5° 19 to 22m is expected. [my yellow highlighting]

National Oceanography Centre, Clarence Coast Mean Sea Level 1986 – 2022

YAMBA

NASA, Projected Sea Level Rise Under Different SSP Scenarios, Yamba:

Clarence Valley Sea Level Rise 2030 onwards based on Climate Central Interactive Mapping

Extent of inundation at 2 metre rise

Extent of inundation at 3 metre rise

Rise by 2030 - six years time

Rise by 2040 - sixteen years time