Election 2010: Last night I dreamt I went to Manderley again

Well the dream wasn't about Manderley but That Man,

and it fulfilled an old trout's wish.

Image from somewhere in cyberspace

The Nationals and political advertising cons

The three days preceding the political advertising blackout at midnight on Wednesday were more than a little painful, as television screens were blitzed by campaign advertising by all major political parties. Here on the NSW North Coast it was a veritable snow storm of spin.

However, what really took the top prize was the Nationals running with one ad which brazenly stated that it was the only party which helped to get an increase in the pension.
Not even lipservice paid to truth there. In fact, putting it bluntly, that would have to be a blatant lie.

The Nationals were not the only party debating pension increases over the last three years and, I can recall that in 2008 they supported an increase of only $30 a week and even then not for every class of pensioner. Remember that vacant space in their initial argument when it came to disability support pensioners?

Every Nationals candidate in 2010 from party leader Warren Truss down to novice Kevin Hogan seems to have conveniently forgotten that fact.

Number and age of everyone who now gets to vote on 21 August 2010

As a result of the recent High Court Decision (6 August) to extend the period for enrolling to vote in the federal election to 8pm 26 July 2010, the revised total number enrolled to vote is 14,088,260.
This compares to a previous total of 14,030,528 prior the Decision, representing an increase of 57,732 voters. A further 40,408 voters had their existing enrolment details updated.
Overall, 143,728 net additions to the electoral roll have occurred since the announcement of the 2010 federal election. A net total of 443,187 electors have been added to the roll since the close of rolls for the 2007 federal election, when 13,645,073 were enrolled to vote.

Click on image to enlarge

AEC XLS file of age and gender by actual electorate.

1 more sleep until polling day and......

...the NSW North Coast Nats candidate in Page (and former Croweater) Kevin Hogan's campaigning is beginning to smack of desperation - he's got his wife sending out personalised letters spruiking the cause.

The missus wants to tell a few voters all about Kevvie's virtues as "a husband and father, rather than just as the political candidate you see in the newspaper or on TV".

Apparently he has too much "humility" to tell us himself that he's a "man of integrity, commitment and intelligence".

Unfortunately for the luvverly Karen (pictured) she doesn't have all that much material to work with and I'm left wondering what the Nationals campaign team thought they were achieving this late in the piece.

For the record here's an image of the letter in question and while I'm at it - a chapeau tip to Clarencegirl and someone she calls R's Dad for passing this little gem on.

Sophie's digital pen rulz on polling day!

Australian Electoral Commission media release:

13 August 2010

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) acknowledges the Federal Court Decision today that a claim for enrolment by Ms Sophie Trevitt meets the purposes of s102(1)(b) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act.

The AEC has therefore added Ms Trevitt to the electoral roll this afternoon and she will be entitled to vote in the federal election.

The AEC notes that the particular methodology used by Ms Trevitt in her online completion of an enrolment form was a digital pen on a trackpad for the purposes of providing a signature.

His Honour Perram J stated in his judgement (Getup Ltd v Electoral Commissioner 2010 FCA 869) today:

"22. Granted then that faxing and emailing a JPEG files satisfies, for the Commissioner's purposes, the requirements of s10(1)(b), it must follow, and I find, that the signature tool and the Ozenrol site likewise satisfy that provision."

After the federal election the AEC will need to discuss the Decision with the Electoral Council of Australia, a body that includes the Electoral Commissioner and his Joint Roll Partners (State Electoral Commissions) to ensure that the methodology is appropriate for all enrolment purposes across the three tiers of government.

The AEC also will discuss the judgement and associated roll issues with the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters in the next Parliament.

The AEC notes that GetUP Ltd publicly launched their Ozenrol portal on the day before the announcement of the election and withdrew it on day of announcement. The AEC does not have figures on any other attempted enrolments during this period.

The AEC also notes that another prospective claimant in this case to the Federal Court, Mr Steven Hind, sought to update his details using Ozenrol site but did not pursue his claims.

Mr Hind's case, however, quite apart from the deliberations of the Court were accepted by the AEC. Mr Hind used the Ozenrol site in making his claim for enrolment and did not provide a signature but was able to take advantage of the recent passage through the Parliament of the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Pre-poll Voting and Other Measures) Act 2010 and the commencement of Schedule 2 to that Act on 19 July 2010. These new measures allow online update of a pre-existing federal enrolment.

WHK Horwath has verified Abbott & Co policy costings? G'arn!

Doesn't bluddy bode well. One of the only concrete things Abbott and Co actually do in the middle of all their campaign spin is to sidestep the Australian Treasury and contract the frequently rebranded accounting firm WHK Horwath (which is a listed company and the member firm representing Crowe Horwath International throughout Australia and New Zealand) to run a calculator over their policy costings.
"We aim to establish strong relationships with our clients, becoming an integral part of their organisation, adding value every step of the way through our proactive approach and driving their success." sez Horwath.
Gawd, I 'opes not!
In 2006 as Horwath & Horwath this company settled a claim "made in respect of 6 audits conducted by Horwath & Horwath as well as in relation to the preparation and verification of various financial reports pursuant to certain provisions of the trust deed. In particular the claim relates to the way Horwath & Horwath reported on, and failed to conclude that the provision for bad and doubtful debts in Geneva's financial statements was materially understated. It also concerns their failure to report on how Geneva did not have in place and maintain a satisfactory system of internal controls, as a result of which it followed poor lending practices."
And in its current manifestation it's into online footy tipping!
In 2010 WHK as it's now known may have agreed to honestly report on Coalition costings, but really, what in earth was it thinking to land the accountancy group in the middle of this particular political pottage.

2 more sleeps until polling day and......

.......Maud up the Street has invited me to put my feet under her table next Sat'dee and then stay on to see how the federal ballot plays out.
She said to come early as she will've slow cooked a Mista Rabbott with garden vegies and new potatoes using her grandmother's receipt.
Slowly stewing a symbol of the pollie everyone loves to hate. Hmm, a bit of sympathetic magic going down there perhaps?

Stimulus package debate - so who do you believe?

Still wondering if Tony Abbott and Co are right about the Rudd-Gillard Government stimulus packages?
This might assist..........

On ABC TV Q&A Opposition last night Leader Tony Abbott said this:

Well, again, it's horses for courses and don't expect miracles. Now, if spending was the sure fire answer to any problem like this, why is it that the Americans are in recession? Why is it that the British have been in a recession, because their stimulus packages were roughly the same as ours and it didn't work? What got us through the global financial crisis was not fundamentally the stimulus package. It was fundamentally the strength of our economy and I've got to say that that owes far more to the reforms of previous governments, including the Hawke Keating Government, than it does to the spending spree of the current one.

Yesterday John Quiggin also published this:

An Open Letter

We the undersigned economists are convinced by the evidence that the coordinated policies of the Australian Labor Government have prevented the Australian economy from a deep recession and prevented a massive increase in unemployment. Unlike most OECD economies we have come out of the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent world recession with only one quarter of negative GDP growth and a smaller increase in unemployment.

We note that during a recession automatic stabilizers (increase in total unemployment benefit payments and decreased tax revenues) lead to an increased government budget deficit. In almost all the OECD countries there has been a massive increase in unemployment and in budget deficits. In Australia both have been trivial by comparison.

The Government Fiscal Stimulus package that was introduced was carefully crafted and implemented in a clever sequence. The first stage, the payment of $900 to most households, helped to boost confidence in the retail industry.

The second stage of the stimulus package (the Building Education Revolution, and the First Home Owners Grant) boosted the construction industry and created thousands of new jobs. Besides the employment effect, it also provided a much needed increase in the stock of public capital (better and greener homes, better schools) and prevented a sudden fall in house prices.

The last stage of the fiscal stimulus package (as it takes time to prepare plans etc.) was the infrastructure program that increased employment as well as increasing the stock of public capital and helping to overcome the significant short fall in Australian public infrastructure, and hence would increase future productivity, taxable capacity and the ability to repay public debt.

Just as a major corporation goes into debt to invest in its stock of capital, so does a government. Just as many householders have a debt to a bank or mortgage company, so does a government. A government has a budget deficit and a government debt, but it also has capital assets (roads, ports, better equipped schools, Broadband, etc.).

The performance of the Australian economy has been outstanding: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for the Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have show-cased Australia as a model economy.

We hope that the economic achievements of the Australian Labor Government will be recognized by the population.

Signed by:

P.N. (Raja) Junankar Emeritus Professor UWS, UNSW, and IZA

G. C. Harcourt Emeritus Professor UNSW and Jesus College, Cambridge

Peter Kriesler Associate Professor UNSW

John Nevile Emeritus Professor UNSW

George Argyrous Senior Lecturer University Of New South Wales

Harry Bloch Professor Curtin University

Tony Bryant Associate Professor Macquarie University

John Buchanan Director, Workplace Research Centre University of Sydney

Jerry Courvisanos Associate Professor University of Ballarat

Mamta B Chowdhury Senior Lecturer University of Western Sydney

Barrie Dyster Senior Lecturer University Of New South Wales

Corrado Di Guilmi Post Doctoral Research Fellow University of Technology

Geoff Dow Reader The University of Queensland

Steve Dowrick Professor Australian National University

Chris Evans Professor University Of New South Wales

Peter E. Earl Associate Professor University of Queensland

Craig Freedman Associate Professor Macquarie University

Giuseppe Fontana Professor of Monetary Economics LUBS - University of Leeds

James Farrell Senior Lecturer University of Western Sydney

Roy Green Dean, Faculty of Business University of Technology

Boyd Hunter Associate Professor/Senior Fellow The Australian National University

Joseph Halevi Senior Lecturer University of Sydney

Neil Hart Senior Lecturer University of Western Sydney

Sasha Holley PhD student University of Sydney

Michael Johnson Associate Professor University Of New South Wales

Steve Keen Associate Professor University of Western Sydney

Bill Lucarelli Senior Lecturer University of Western Sydney

Bruce Littleboy Senior Lecturer University of Queensland

Marc Lombard Senior Lecturer Macquarie University

Elisabetta Magnani Associate Professor University Of New South Wales

Fiona Martin Senior Lecturer University Of New South Wales

Girijasankar Mallik Senior Lecturer University of Western Sydney

Robert Marks Visiting Professor University Of New South Wales

Stephane Mahuteau Senior Lecturer Macquarie University

Eddie Oczkowski Professor Charles Sturt University

Brian Pinkstone Associate Professor University of Western Sydney

John Quiggin Australian Research Council Federation Fellow, University of Queensland

B. Bhaskara (Bill) Rao Professor University of Western Sydney

Colin Richardson Visiting Professor of Economics Imperial College, London

Tim Robinson Professor University of Technology

Frank Stilwell Professor of Political Economy University of Sydney

Ingrid Schraner Senior Lecturer University of Western Sydney

Michael Schneider Honorary Fellow. La Trobe University

Ruhul Salim Associate Professor Curtin University

Chris Terry Associate Professor University of Technology

David Throsby Professor of Economics Macquarie University

Tim Thornton Associate Lecturer La Trobe

Phillip Toner Senior Research Fellow University of Western Sydney

Roger Tonkin Lecturer Macquarie University

Sean Turnell Senior Lecturer Macquarie University

Michael White Senior Lecturer Monash university

Other Signatories

James Arvanitakis Lecturer, Centre for Cultural Research University of Western SydneyNixon Apple Industry and Economic Advisor Australian Manufacturing Workers Union

Grant Belchamber Economist ACTU

Ross Buckley Professor of International Finance Law University Of New South Wales

Brad Crofts National Economist Australian Workers' Union

Rajinder Cullinan Client Services Accountant University Of New South Wales

Sandra Egger Associate Professor Faculty of Law, University of New South Wales

Rolf Gerritsen Professor, School for Social Policy and Research Charles Darwin University

Alan Morris Senior Lecturer University Of New South Wales

George McFarlane Retired Consultant, Sanders & Associates Pty Ltd

Gillian Moon Senior Lecturer University Of New South Wales

John Milfull Emeritus Professor University Of New South Wales

J. F. Pixley Senior Research Fellow Macquarie University

Ben Spies-Butcher Lecturer Macquarie University

Peter Sheldon Associate Professor University Of New South Wales

Big Mal, Love, Karmic Cuts, Miss Manners & Drunken Sailors

Electile dysfunction and sympathy with underdogs has struck Clarence Valley letter writers in August issues of The Daily Examiner, as electorates on the NSW North Coast stagger towards Saturday's finishing line.

3 more sleeps until polling day and......

...the rollicking silly season has arrived so it's b*gger the real news for many on The Internetz.

This ran on BigPond News:

"Opposition leader Tony Abbott may be running for the country's top job, but he's at the bottom of the list of desirable hubbies for Aussie women.
A study has rated Mr Abbott alongside bad boys AFL footballer Brendan Fevola, golfer Tiger Woods and actor Russell Crowe, whose partner-appeal was in also the doldrums.
The 1,200 respondents, women living across the nation and aged above 18, were asked to rank 12 high-profile men on a scale of attributes they either look for, or avoid in a partner.
Mr Abbott scored two out of a possible ten points, on a par with actor Tom Cruise, who also appeared an unfavourable hubby for Australian women."

And this is posted on Tony Abbot Is Right:

Latest Essential Research poll shows Labor under threat in 3 out of 5 mainland states

Somewhat going against recent poll trends comes the Essential Report of 16 August 2010.
This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source.
The survey was conducted online from 10th to 15th August and is based on 1,001 respondents.

Federal politics – voting intention

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August - to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

2,160 sample size

Click on images to enlarge

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

CORRECTION:

In the state report which added figures over the last three weeks, there is an error which affects a number of the 2PP figures.
Corrected figures increase the 2PP for Labor by 1% in NSW, SA and WA.
2PP in NSW is then Labor 48 Coalition 52; SA is 54/46 and WA is 47/53.
National, Victoria and Queensland figures remain unchanged.

Tweeting political opinion: who go there?

The image posted here is from NMG (Newel Media Group) on Twitter. It lists its website as http://www.newellmediagroup.com/.
It has tweeted 1,646 times, is located in Sydney Australia, has 36 'friends', including LiberalAus which is an authorised account held by the Liberal Party of Australia, can be found on YouTube as newellgirl from the United States and on Flickr as a bit of a fan of the Sydney to Surf in 2010.
As one can easily see, the tone is unrelentingly hostile to the Gillard Government, the Labor Party and The Greens. The U.S. President is on the hot list as well.
All of which made me wonder if ithis Twitter account had a particular axe to grind......

So who exactly is NMG (Newel Media Group) and is it acting at the behest of the Liberals during this federal election campaign? Or is it simply a female member of the Newell family venting?

Personally I'm leaning towards it being the former media officer to former Liberal MP Peter King, the sitting member who lost Wentworth pre-selection to Malcolm Turnbull in 2003-2004. Who do you think it is?

Australia Votes is currently tracking election sentiment on Twitter. Over 200,000 tweets have been sent concerning candidates, policies and issues.

4 more sleeps to polling day and.....

.....Tony Abbott has visions of a batphone boatphone if he becomes the next Oz pie minister.
What next - a Boatmobile?


The twittersphere's been tittering at #boatphone & #ausvotes.
Twitpic passed on this from the MSM:

5 sleeps to polling day and .......

....the Nats Kevin Hogan is still providing laffs on the NSW North Coast.

This time a give-away note pad (below) proudly proclaims that he did not use taxpayer's money to produce the pad.

Er, you're a first time candidate Kevvie - not a sitting MP - so you're not eligible for any taxpayer funded printing allowance.

There's no virtue in claiming to abstain from what you can't access in the first place!

Antony Green takes exception to News Ltd & Sky's psephological howler

This was Sky News last night (14 August 2010):

















This is The Australian and News Ltd this morning (15 August 2010):

THE Coalition is leading the government and is on track to win the 17 seats it needs for an election victory, according to a Galaxy Poll.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is ahead of the ALP 51.4 per cent to 48.6 per cent, the opinion poll published by News Limited's Sunday newspapers.
News Limited also publishes of The Australian.
The poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal electorates in five states predicts devastation for Labor in Queensland, where a potential swing of 5.4 per cent against the government could cost it 10 seats.

This is Antony Green's Election Blog, also published early this morning, telling the world that the Australian media is getting it wrong, wrong, wrong:

When I entered the swings into the ABC calculator, I got the following result

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0.3&nsw=-2.4&vic=1.6&qld=-5.4&wa=-2.1&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1

This produced a national 2PP figure of 51.1% for Labor, completely at odds with the figure of Coalition 51.4% reported above. Then it dawned on me that whoever calculated 51.4% has made a very basic error of political analysis.

The five 2PP figures for 2007 and 2010 reported above apply only to the four electorates in each state. They are not 2-party preferred figures for each state, and the Galaxy tables have been very precise in setting out the 4-seats per state nature of the poll.

What someone has done is take the five entries in the 2010 2PP column and average them to get a national figure. Wrong. Very wrong.

There are two serious errors committed here. First, the figures are for four electorates, NOT the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not. To get a National 2PP figure, you need a weighted average of the state swings, NOT a simple average of the survey 2PPs by state.

The method I used in the calculator is the correct way to produce a national 2PP %. If you assume the swings in the four states are uniform in each state, the new state Labor 2PP %'s are NSW 51.3%, VIC 55.9%, QLD 45.0%, SA 52.4% and WA 44.6%.

These produce a National Labor 2PP % from this Galaxy poll of 51%, not 48.6%. Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure.

The Neilsen Poll published by Fairfax this morning and previewed by Lateline last night supports Antony Green's assessment that surveyed voter intentions are now favouring Labor.

Update: Channel 7's Weekend Sunrise was still repeating the wrong two party preferred percentages during news updates - up to and including the 8am recap.

Actual Galaxy Research 8-13 August poll results here showing 2pp % Labor 52% Liberal 48%.

A Visual Impression of Teh Oz Economy under any ToBattyNob Guvmin'

With grovelling apologies to

the NSW Dept. of Fair Trading

and its copious illustrated leaflet pile.

6 more sleeps to polling day and.....

....it's still anyone's guess whether, after the 21st of August, Oz will be governed by a well-meaning but essentially conservative Labor pollie or ruled by a dictatorial theocratic ultra-conservative Liberal pollie.
Hughie's sense of humour is showing. Think I preferred it when all he threw at us was droughts and flooding rains.

Finally, 15 & 17 August 2010 climate change becomes a focus of NSW North Coast debate in federal election

Climate Change Australia is part of the Climate Action Australia Network and:

is a community climate action group, with branches in Grafton (Clarence Valley), Port Macquarie (Hastings Valley) and Taree (Manning Valley) in north eastern New South Wales. The aims of Climate Change Australia are to: raise awareness about climate change issues and impacts encourage everyone to conserve energy and water promote the increased use of renewable energy encourage all levels of government to take urgent action on climate change. Next Tuesday CCA will host a candidates forum on climate change attended by all six candidates in the Page electorate. Candidates will put their position on climate change and answer questions from the community. Place: Roche's Family Hotel, Grafton Date: 17 August 2010 Time: 5.30pm to 6.30pm Information: clarenceclimate@yahoo.com.au The CCA Manning branch will also be holding a candidates forum in the Lyne electorate on Sunday 15 August 2010: CWA Hall (Quay North Building, 17-19 Horton Street) near the fig tree at The Town Green, beginning 10.30am. Contact stevelockhart@bigpond.com Ph: 02 6583 6393 The Northern Rivers Echo reports that on 17 August 2010, Grafton and South Grafton business people have been invited to meet the candidates of Page and Cowper. However, debate is stifled at this venue: With the support of Clarence Valley Council Mayor Richie Williamson, the Grafton Chamber will host an evening with the candidates following the council meeting on Tuesday. Due to council meeting procedure, questions cannot be raised from the public gallery. However, straight after the meeting, the Grafton Chamber of Commerce and Industry invites business people and the public gallery to join us and the candidates for light refreshments and an opportunity to raise questions with the candidates. Attendees are urged to be seated in the public gallery of the Grafton Council Chambers, 2 Prince Street, Grafton by 6.30pm.

The putative Australian deputy sheriff in any Abbott-led federal government?

Reading recent utterances of a certain Prince of the Church (and remembering his close cooperation with Abbott during the 2007 campaign) one cannot help but wonder if George Pell sees a possible Coalition victory on 21 August this year as less of a win for neo-conservative politics and more of a victory for the Catholic faith.

A victory which would allow him to figuratively perch on Tony Abbott's left shoulder and encourage that flawed politician's worst character traits.

Pell is obviously afraid that any increase in votes for The Greens would weaken Abbott's chances of becoming Australia's Über Right Wing Catholic prime minister and, the cardinal let fly with these sentiments last Sunday:

The Green ethic, as Bob Brown has written about it with Peter Singer, is that humans are simply another smarter animal, so that humans and animals are on the same or similar levels depending on their level of consciousness. This is to replace the Judaeo-Christian [sic] beliefs at the heart of Australia's values with the law of the jungle. It can be seen in the Greens' enthusiasm for abortion and euthanasia, which is bad news for the weak and the vulnerable, especially at the beginning and the end of life, and thoroughly anti-Christian.
and
One wing of the Greens are like water melons, green outside and red inside. A number were Stalinists, supporting Soviet oppression. A few years ago they even tried unsuccessfully to use the privileges committee of the N.S.W. Legislative Council to silence religious voices in public debate.
and again
"sweet-camouflaged poison".

In this he was supported on the NSW North Coast by the Catholic Bishop of Lismore Diocese who told the faithful that in voting they should consider candidates in this light:

"What sort of beliefs do they espouse? What sort of values do they hold, especially in regard to marriage and the family, in regard to the dignity and sanctity of human life? Is this candidate pro-life? Does he or she reflect the thinking and conduct of a person to whom I am happy, in conscience before God, to confide my vote?....we cannot ignore the enormous moral and social consequence of condoning the deliberate destruction of unborn human life."

While the bishop's counterpart in Perth had already questioned the advisability of voting for a atheist Labor prime minister in the person of Julia Gillard:

"Many Christians are concerned that someone who does not believe in God may not endorse the Christian traditions of respect for human life, for the sanctity of marriage and the independence of churches, church schools and church social welfare agencies."

The media release hurriedly sent out by the Australian Catholic Bishops Conference on 9 August, which began "Catholic Bishops do not tell people who to vote for", did not allay all fears that Pell and Co were not so subtly trying to direct votes in their congregations towards the only party headed by a committed pro-lifer.

It seems that Australian religious just can't resist meddling in the secular and, in case you were wondering, any lack of democracy after August 2010 is probably your fault - you, you, you nasty blogospherers!

Pell photograph credit: The Sydney Morning Herald

2010 Election Campaign Day 30 - A little help from your friends

Suffering from spin and pork pie overload? Try a little help from your friends at AFDB: