Tweets of the Week

The gas industry lobby group APPEA have put some ads on social media boasting about how much tax and royalties the gas industry pay.

Here's what they don't tell you.

Climate & Energy Principal Advisor @MarkOgge explains. #auspol pic.twitter.com/6WFafdobkZ

— Australia Institute (@TheAusInstitute) July 25, 2022

With inflation now running at 6.1% annually & wage growth at only 2.4% we have moved from the era of wage stagnation to the new era of cuts to real wages.

— Josh Bornstein (@JoshBBornstein) July 27, 2022

NSW Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet & Nationals Deputy Premier Paul Toole continue the Coalition's obsession with that fossil fuel without any form of social licence, Coal Seam Gas

 

Northern Daily Leader, 21 May 2022:

Gas companies will be permitted to explore for the mineral on 90,000 hectares of farmland surrounding the village of Bellata, after the state government resurrected the last "zombie" PEL in the North West on Friday.

Opponents of gas expansion accused the government of trying to bury a decision to bring back PEL 427 from the dead, in the hours before the federal election.

It is the last of 12 decades-old petroleum exploration licences (PELs), covering 55,000 square kilometres of farmland, which had long expired but, like zombies, could be reanimated at any time. All but three other PELS have been destroyed for good in recent weeks…..

The Bellata PEL has been shrunk down to just 90,000 hectares, covering an area near Moree. It includes land in the Northern Tablelands electorate of Adam Marshall and the Barwon electorate of Roy Butler, both of whom oppose gas development in their electorates.

A spokesperson for the Department of Regional NSW said that the PEL "has been renewed in line with the NSW Government's Future of Gas Statement, which was released last year, reducing the total area covered by the PELs in NSW by 77 per-cent."

"The PEL remained in place while it was under assessment by the Department. The renewed area is significantly smaller than it was previously," he said.

"All PELs that were under assessment have now been resolved, with parts of them reduced, others renewed, and several refused."

Lock the Gate Alliance National Coordinator Georgina Woods said the timing of the renewal showed disdain for farmers and a desperate attempt to avoid scrutiny.

"It's shocking to see the Perrottet Government continuing to permit coal seam gas exploration on some of the state's best farmland," she said.

"In less than a month, the Perrottet Government has put more than one million hectares of NSW land and the groundwater beneath it at the mercy of the polluting coal seam gas industry.

"Coal seam gas is incompatible with a thriving agriculture industry and resilient rural communities.

"The Perrottet Government has given gas companies the green light to pockmark farmland with gas wells and further fuel dangerous climate change, which is in turn making it harder for farmers to grow food and fibre.

"As recent community meetings have shown, locals will not passively accept the renewal of these licences. The Perrottet Government now has one hell of a fight on its hands."

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers member for Barwon Roy Butler said the government risked serious backlash from its strongest supporters, who had what he said was "white hot" anger about the issue.

"The strange thing for me is that you've got groups like NSW Farmers and CWA who strongly oppose this, they strongly oppose Narrabri, they oppose these zombie PELs. Those groups are bread and butter for the Nats," he said.

"Yet they just stick their middle finger up at them essentially and say we'll we're going to go do it anyway. You sort of sit there and think what the hell's going on? Why would you do that to your base?"

He said almost no landholder near Narrabri was in favour of a plan to turn the region into a coal-seam-gas development zone, and the industry continued to pose major risks to groundwater……

In April the government resurrected PELs near Narrabri, Boggabri, Quirindi and Gunnedah.

It approved the Santos-owned Narrabri Gas Project in 2020.

Bellarta NSW 

IMAGE: Domain.com.au

According to Visit NSW website:

Bellata lies 48 kilometres North of Narrabri and 54 kilometres South of Moree on the Newell Highway in North West New South Wales. A rich agricultural region, it is also known for its minerals such as petrified and opalised wood and agate.

The Bellata area is responsible for the production of some of the best Australian Prime Hard wheat in Australia and has large grain storage complex and silos. The countryside has beautiful rich soils and undulating land.

Bellata has a primary school, a nine hole golf course with sand greens and free camping is also available at the Bellata Golf Club, 24 hour BP Roadhouse and the Bellata Memorial Hall.

Australian Federal Election 2022: second-rate performance artist grabs a koala to cuddle.....

 

This is the image of a former child actor who became Australian Prime Minister, Scott John Morrison. Right now Scott wants Australian voters to believe that he will help save the Koala from extinction. 

IMAGE: Courier Mail, January 2022

However, Morrison is less a prime minister than he is a second-rate performance artist and right now he is playing a set piece role with this particular koala as a prop.  

Here in New South Wales we have some experience of how once the photographers and television cameramen have departed the scene Scott Morrison doesn’t give a damn about koalas - it's called the Regional Forest Agreement. 

Echo, 2 February 2022:

The recently announced $50 million emergency fund for koalas by the Federal Government has been called a ‘smokescreen’ by environmental group North East Forest Alliance (NEFA).

The funding comes from the federal government’s $2 billion bushfire relief fund that was announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison on 6 January.

Announcing the koala funding Treasurer Josh Frydenberg referred to the Black Summer fires that raised approximately 10 million hectares of land, with 8.4 million hectares saying that ‘This has been an ecological disaster, a disaster that is still unfolding. We know that our native flora and fauna have been very badly damaged’ (ABC).

A NSW Parliament report in 2020 identified that koala populations across parts of Australia are on track to become extinct before 2050 unless ‘urgent government intervention’. This gives Australian’s now less than 30 years to turn this koala extinction threat around.

However, NEFA spokesperson Dailan Pugh said that Scott Morrison’s announcement of $50 million for koalas is just a smokescreen to cover-up his Government’s approval for increased logging and clearing of koala habitat, while allowing climate heating to run amok, threatening the future of both koalas and the Great Barrier Reef,

‘Without good policies on habitat protection and climate change no amount of money will save koalas,’ said Mr Pugh.

‘If Scott Morrison was fair dinkum about protecting koala habitat the first thing he would do is to stop their feed and roost trees being logged and cleared. Money is no good for koalas if they have nowhere to live.

Climate action needed

‘The second is to take urgent and meaningful action on climate heating, as koalas and their feed trees have already been decimated by intensifying droughts and heatwaves in western NSW, and bushfires in coastal areas. If the Morrison Government doesn’t take urgent action on climate heating then neither koalas nor the Great Barrier Reef will have a future.

Regional Forest Agreement

‘When the Morrison Government issued an indefinite extension to the north-east NSW Regional Forest Agreement in 2018 they agreed to remove the need for Forestry Corporation to thoroughly search for koalas ahead of logging and protect all identified Koala High Use Areas from logging.

‘They also agreed to overriding the NSW Government’s own expert’s panel recommendations, supported by the EPA, to retain 25 koala feed trees per hectare in modelled high quality habitat, by reducing retention down to just 10 smaller trees.

‘Thanks to the Morrison Government we now have a shoddy process where a few small trees are protected in inaccurately modelled habitat, while loggers rampage through koala’s homes, and if a koala is seen in a tree then all they need to do is wait until it leaves before cutting its tree down.

‘Now Scott Morrison is allowing the Forestry Corporation to log identified refuges in burnt forests where koalas survived the fires.

‘The situation on private lands is just as dire. Morrison did nothing to save koala habitat when his State National Party colleagues declared war on koalas in mid 2020 and forced his Liberal colleagues to agree to remove protection for mapped core koala habitat and to open up protected environmental zones for logging. This too is covered by Morrison’s Regional Forest Agreement.’

‘If he really cared about the future of koalas the first thing Morrison needs to do is amend the Regional Forest Agreement to ensure there are surveys by independent experts to identify core koala habitat for protection before clearing or logging…...

‘The second thing is to stop new coal and gas projects, because to have any chance of saving koalas and the Great Barrier Reef we must act urgently to reduce our CO2 emissions, rather than increasing them.....

A brief look at projections and forecasts for six aspects of the Australian economy in 2021-22 & 2022-23

 

With only a seventeen-week window remaining in which Prime Minister Scott Morrison can first present an early Budget 2022-23 to the Australian Parliament, then dissolve said Parliament, before going on to call a federal general election and run a formal election campaign; sometime soon Coalition Government MPs and senators will have to begin addressing economic issues when out and about in their electorates. 

So perhaps it is time to start looking at projections and forecasts for 2022 made by government departments, financial institutions and industry - before local electioneering hype is raised to such a pitch that facts and considered opinion get lost in the political mêlée. 

Here are six aspects of economic activity which always get a mention in the NSW Northern Rivers region at some time in an election cycle.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

ABC News, 18 January 2022:

Consumer confidence slumps

The Omicron COVID-19 variant has hit consumer confidence, according to ANZ and Roy Morgan.

Their measure of consumer confidence fell 7.6 per cent last week to 97.9, the lowest level since October 2020, as Omicron surged across Australia and facilities came under immense strain.

That was lower than during last year's lockdowns when the Delta variant surged.

All the survey's subindices fell including current and future financial conditions.

Nearly one in five respondents expected to be worse off by this time next year.

ANZ head of Australian Economics, David Plank, said the index level of 97.9 was the weakest January result since 1992, when the Australian economy was experiencing rising unemployment.

"The result highlights the concerns about COVID have the potential to significantly impact the economy if they linger," he said.

ANZ said spending had continued to fall because of the spread of Omicron, with a drop of 27 per cent over the first half of January, compared to the first half of December.

Spending was also lower on eating out.

Omicron hit to economy

CBA credit and debit card data indicated that spending has dropped sharply on services over the past few weeks.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said the large number of COVID-19 cases is hurting the employment market, with an estimated 1 million people in isolation, and reduced spending on goods and services.

That means many businesses have been forced to close, or reduce capacity and opening hours.

He has slashed his growth forecast for the first quarter of 2022 from 2.3 per cent to just 1 per cent.

"The next few months are without a shred of doubt going to be difficult and testing for the economy," Mr Aird said.

"Our working assumption is that more policy support will be forthcoming, particularly stimulus that is targeted towards businesses most adversely impacted by the surge in COVID cases and isolation requirements."

Mr Aird said he expected the economy to snap back in the second quarter of 2022.

FINANCE

Australian Government General Government Sector Monthly Financial Statements November 2021, 24 December 2021:

KEY POINTS

• The Monthly Financial Statements for November 2021 report the budget position against the expected monthly profile for the 2021-22 financial year through to 30 November 2021, based on the 2021-22 Budget estimates published in May 2021.

• The 2021-22 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) was released on Thursday, 16 December 2021. Commencing with the December 2021 monthly financial statements, which will be released in January 2022, the budget position will be reported against the expected monthly profile based on the updated estimates outlined in the 2021-22 MYEFO.

• The November 2021 year to date results include the impact of the Australian Government’s response to COVID-19.

• The underlying cash balance for the 2021-22 financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $41.8 billion against the Budget profile deficit of $55.9 billion.

• The fiscal balance for the 2021-22 financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $36.0 billion against the Budget profile deficit of $55.2 billion.

Monthly results are generally volatile due to timing differences between revenue and receipts, and expenses and payments. Care needs to be taken when comparing monthly or cumulative data across years and to full-year estimates, as revenue and receipts and expenses and payments vary from month to month.

FISCAL OUTCOMES

Underlying Cash Balance

The underlying cash balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $41.8 billion, which is $14.1 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $55.9 billion.

• Receipts

Total receipts were $34.3 billion higher than the 2021-22 Budget profile.

• Payments

Total payments were $20.2 billion higher than the 2021-22 Budget profile.

Net Operating Balance

The net operating balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $35.5 billion, which is $17.8 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $53.4 billion. The difference results from higher than expected revenue, partially offset by higher than expected expenses.

Fiscal Balance

The fiscal balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $36.0 billion, which is $19.3 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $55.2 billion. The difference results from higher than expected revenue and lower than expected net capital investment, partially offset by higher expenses.

Assets and Liabilities

As at 30 November 2021:

• net worth is negative $743.5 billion;

• net debt is $607.3 billion; and

• net financial liabilities are $987.2 billion.

MINING SECTOR

Office of the Chief Economist, Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2021, excerpt:

Australia’s resource and energy exports are estimated to reach a record $379 billion in 2021–22, up from $310 billion in 2020–21. In 2022–23, export earnings are then forecast to decline back to $311 billion, as commodity prices settle lower.

The global recovery remains underway, sustained by the ongoing rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and continued fiscal and monetary support across major economies. However, new outbreaks (and variants) of the pandemic across many regions are inhibiting a full global recovery, as are supply chain blockages — including shortages of semi-conductor chips and of shipping containers in some locations.

China’s power shortages have been a dominant influence on global resource and energy commodity prices in recent months. As a major global metal refiner, the power shortages have seen Chinese (base and ferrous) metal output cut back. China’s property sector has slowed noticeably since our last report, cutting metal usage. However, the Chinese authorities now appear to be taking steps to stabilise the sector.

New policy developments are also impacting the global resources and energy sector. In October, China’s government instructed the nation’s coal miners to lift output and imposed a thermal coal price cap, following critical shortages. In November, the US Congress passed a US$1.2 trillion infrastructure program, which will have a stimulatory effect on economic growth domestically and have flow-on effects offshore.

A stronger outlook for base metals and coal is expected to more than offset the impact on export earnings of the downward adjustment we have made to our iron ore price forecasts. Lithium exports are expected to overtake zinc exports in 2022–23 as car makers race to capture the electric vehicle market.

With energy inventories lower than normal, the severity of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere winter will have a critical influence on energy markets in the short term. The La Niña weather pattern will likely impact on the demand and supply for coal and other energy products.

The risks to the record export earnings forecast for 2021–22 are skewed to the downside. They include a much faster than expected decline in coal prices. There is also potential for a further rise in global inflation and a risk of higher interest rates in response. New, vaccine-resistant strains of the coronavirus, and the risk of delays in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines to the world’s population, could also pose significant risks.

AGRICULTURE

Dept. of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Outlook for Crops, excerpt:

Value of crop production to reach record high in 2021–22

The gross value of crop production is forecast to reach a record $43 billion in 2021–22, driven by record winter crop production and high world grain and oilseed prices. Favourable seasonal conditions across all winter cropping regions, particularly in New South Wales and Western Australia (the two biggest winter crop–producing states) are forecast to result in above average to significantly above average yields. A favourable outlook for increased summer crop production is also contributing to the forecast record. The gross value of all major crop commodities is forecast to reach a record level:

• wheat – $11.5 billion (record high)

• barley – $3.4 billion (record high)

• canola – $5.2 billion (record high)

• cotton – $3.9 billion (record high)

• horticulture – $12.5 billion (second highest on record)

Heavy November rainfall has caused flooding in northern and central west New South Wales resulting in production losses for some producers. Although this is not expected to significantly affect tonnage produced, it will affect the value because of a downgrade in quality. Continued high rainfall in December will cause further damage and more total crop losses if crops cannot be harvested.

In other areas across the eastern states and South Australia, wet conditions during harvest and reduced soil nutrient levels caused by 2 years of high yields could reduce grain and oilseeds quality compared with recent years. The extent of these impacts would differ from paddock-to-paddock, and downgrades of wheat protein levels or improvements in the oil content of canola crops could affect the prices that growers receive.

Despite concerns about a resurgence in mice numbers, increased baiting on farms during winter and spring has reduced mice populations in affected regions, and there have been no reports of significant damage to date. They still remain a risk for summer crops in parts of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Farm profits could be reduced by high baiting and cleaning costs if mouse numbers remain elevated during summer.

Figure 1.1 Gross value of crop production, 1971–72 to 2021–22

f ABARES forecast.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Dept. of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Economic overview: December quarter 2021, excerpt:

Exchange rate to remain at current levels

In 2021–22, the Australian exchange rate is assumed to average US74 cents – 1 cent lower than the average for 2020–21. Downward pressure on the exchange rate from falling iron ore prices is expected to be balanced by upward pressure from strengthening economic activity and steep increases in coal and natural gas prices.

Overseas interest rates may move higher over 2022, adding to downward pressure on the Australian dollar if current domestic monetary policy settings remain. Stronger than expected inflation overseas could prompt central banks to bring forward planned rate rises. Australian interest rates are not expected to be lifted in 2021–22. The Reserve Bank of Australia has clearly signalled it will not raise rates unless inflation is sustained in the target range (core inflation of 2 to 3%) and wages growth is ‘materially higher’ than it is at present. Wages growth in Australia remains at less than half the average rate recorded between 2000 and 2010, despite relatively low unemployment.

TOURISM

Do not travel to Australia......

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/australia-travel-advisory.html

https://www.safetravel.govt.nz/australia

Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Commonwealth of Australia, 7 January 2022:

Notice on China-bound foreign passengers' application of health code Jan-07-2022）

2022-01-07 16:05

In order to reduce cross-border transmission of Covid-19, especially considering the latest developments of COVID-19 in Australia, the Embassy and Consulate-Generals of China have made major changes on the application procedures. Passengers who travel on and after 17 January, 2022 are kindly required to read and follow instructions below....

Tourism Australia, International Visitor Survey results September 2021:

Key results

Key results for the year ending September 2021 include:

• international visitor numbers fell by 98.2% to 155,469

• international visitor spend was down 97.1% to $1.3 billion

• visitor nights were down 96.2% to 10.4 million.

Australia’s top 5 markets

Australia’s top 5 international visitor markets saw significant losses:

• Chinese visitor numbers fell 99.7%. This was a loss of 1.3 million visitors. Spend fell 99.4% or $12.2 billion.

• New Zealand visitor numbers fell 93.0%. This was a loss of 1.2 million visitors. Spend fell 88.6% or $2.3 billion. New Zealand saw the smallest losses of all markets, recording 89,000 visitors. This was more than half (57%) of all visitors to Australia for the year ending September 2021. This was due to a trans-Tasman bubble opening between the 2 countries during the June quarter 2021.

• United States of America visitor numbers fell 98.9%. This was a loss of 763,000 visitors. Spend fell 96.4% or $3.9 billion.

• United Kingdom visitor numbers fell 98.9%. This was a loss of 662,000 visitors. Spend fell 96.3% or $3.2 billion.

• Japanese visitor numbers fell 99.7%. This was a loss of 454,000 visitors. Spend fell 99.3% or $2.1 billion.

Tourism losses due to COVID-19

Total international and domestic tourism losses since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 reached $128.3 billion.

International tourism saw losses of $62.5 billion for March 2020 to September 2021. This was due to international border closures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the same period, there were further losses of:

• $49.8 billion from domestic overnight travel

• $16.0 billion from domestic day travel.

Note: The only federal government tourism recovery scenarios are dated 2020 and can be found at Australian Trade and Investment Commission, Tourism Research Australia, Tourism Recovery Scenarios.

CLIMATE

Australian climate variability & change - Time series graphs

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Australian climate variability & change - Trend maps

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Australian Government Dept. of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: June 2021, Incorporating emissions from the NEM up to September 2021, excepts:

On a quarterly basis, national emission levels for the June quarter 2021 increased 0.4% or 0.5 Mt CO2-e on the previous quarter in trend terms. The trend result for the June quarter 2021 reflects small increases across all sectors of the inventory with the exception of the electricity sector which was lower by 0.2% on the March quarter 2021….

On an annual basis, the consumption-based inventory increased 0.4% or 1.8 Mt CO2-e to 420.8 Mt CO2-e in the year to June 2021….

National emissions are preliminarily estimated to be 500 Mt CO2-e in the year to September 2021.

Long term sectoral trends

The most important sectoral drivers of Australia’s long-term emissions trend have been:

• Electricity – where emissions have fallen by 22.6% since the year to June 2009 as renewables have displaced coal as a fuel source, reversing the long term increases experienced in earlier

years;

• Stationary energy (excluding electricity) – which has shown the largest growth of any sector in percentage terms since 1990. Emissions have increased 50.3% or 33.3 Mt CO2-e driven, in particular, by recent growth in the export of LNG;

• Transport – where emissions have increased 48.6% or 29.8 Mt CO2-e since 1990, despite recent volatility due to the impacts of the COVID pandemic;

• Fugitives – where emissions have increased 21.3% or 8.6 Mt CO2-e since 1990. Emissions were relatively stable until 2012 but have increased strongly as a result of the growth of the LNG industry;

• Agriculture – where emissions have declined by 18.5% or 17.0 Mt CO2-e since 1990, in line with declining cattle and sheep populations; and,

• Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) – where emissions have decreased by the largest margin of any sector since 1990 (112.6% or 218.1 Mt CO2-e) due to reductions in land clearing and native forest harvesting, increases in plantations and native vegetation, and improvements in soil carbon.

 

Adani may have captured Australian governments but it has yet to achieve a social license from the national population

Frontline Action on Coal

Media release: Tuesday, November 2 2021

Juliet Lamont IMAGE: supplied

Second QLD coal port shut down in a week by same two climate activists.

Kyle Magee IMAGE: supplied

Environmental activists have stopped work this morning at North Queensland Export Terminal (formerly Abbot Point Coal Terminal) in Bowen, Qld.

The port, owned by Adani, has been shut down by the same two climate activists who stopped work at Hay Point Coal Terminal in Mackay, QLD one week ago.

Juliet Lamont and Kyle Magee used steel tubing to lock themselves on to coal loading infrastructure at the port, to coincide with climate discussions at COP26 in Glasgow, UK. The pair are asking the international community to “Sanction Australia” over the government’s inability to respond to the climate crisis appropriately.

Ms Lamont, mother of two, said “I’m locking on at Adani’s coal port to ask the leaders of the world at COP26 to lock Australia out of negotiations and forge ahead with the urgent, bold and visionary work needed to save us. Now.”

Lamont and Magee, who were arrested just one week ago for shutting down operations in Mackay at Hay Point Coal Terminal, are aware that the actions they are taking will see them arrested again. Both have stated they are “willing to face the consequences” as “the climate crisis presents an alarming fate for the future of all Australians”. Both Lamont and Magee are currently on bail from their previous action.

Magee, a father of two, said ”If the Morrison government is serious about tackling climate change, they should cancel all new coal mines now, including the Adani Carmichael mine, and invest billions in sustainable alternatives. Anything less than that shows a dangerous lack of understanding of very clear science.”

As COP26 begins this week, Australia still has no plans to commit to any new 2030 emission reduction targets, even though investors and climate science experts warn that our current strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change are vastly inadequate. Australia is the largest coal exporter in the world, and without 2030 targets a 2050 target of net-zero is likely to be impossible to reach.

Ms Lamont said "I'd like the international community to put pressure on our untrustworthy Morrison government who have completely set their citizens adrift in a climate emergency."