Beliefs versus research in mainstream media

This is where reliance on belief led one university-educated journalist and news director.

The Daily Examiner 31 July 2014:

However I believe there are people out there who are getting benefits a little too easily these days and hopefully this will weed them out.

This is where reliance on research took another journalist.

The Sydney Morning Herald 1 August 2014:

A Department of Employment official has admitted the Abbott government has not done any modelling to estimate how many job seekers will find employment within three months after completing its multibillion-dollar work-for-the-dole program.

That is despite the government's own data showing work-for-the-dole programs are the least effective way to help people find jobs.

Department of Employment data shows that - for job seekers in 2013 - only 19.8 per cent of participants in work-for-the-dole schemes found a full- or part-time job within three months.

That compares with 40.3 per cent of people who did unpaid work experience, 28.4 per cent of those who completed some form of work training, 25.7 per cent who were trained in job search techniques, and 21 per cent of those who did voluntary work….

As of March 31, there were 17,000 job seekers who were doing work for the dole.

Nationals MP for Cowper and Assistant Minister for Employment Luke Hartsuyker makes a fool of himself on the national stage

ExposureDraft of the Purchasing Arrangements for Employment Services 2015-2020, released 28 July 2014:

ABC News 28 July 2014:

Most unemployed people will be required to look for up to 40 jobs a month and work for the dole, as part of the Federal Government's $5.1 billion overhaul of the job services system.

Details of the Government's draft model and tender information for new five-year contracts, which would take effect in July next year, are expected to be released this morning.

"This new system will focus job service providers on getting people into work, it will cut the red tape, and it will free them up to use their initiatives and innovate in the ways they deliver programs," Assistant Employment Minister Luke Hartsuyker told the ABC's AM program.

"It's going to deliver far better outcomes for job seekers and far better outcomes for employers."

"Job service providers will be rewarded for getting people into work for periods as short as four weeks - so there'll be four-week, 12-week, and 26-week outcomes.

Forty job application a month per person on unemployment benefits?

Did no-one in government bother to look at official ABS statistics?

There were 2,076,666 actively trading businesses in Australia at 30 June 2013. Of which 1,264,298 did not employ staff, 563,412 only employed between 1-4 people and only 3,598 had staffing levels above 200 workers.

This new policy would generate a minimum of 29 million individual job applications nationwide each month (or close to one million per day) for the foreseeable future when there are probably less than 147,000 job vacancies in the 812,368 employing businesses right across the country at any given time.

The human resources departments of companies operating in Australia are going to have a collective nervous breakdown trying to process that many ‘going nowhere’ job applications.

I can see many a giant waste paper basket and numerous overloaded electronic mail boxes in their futures.

The business community was quick to realise this, with The Sydney Morning Herald reporting on 29 July:

''They will be inundated,'' says Peter Strong of the Council of Small Business of Australia. ''It's an embarrassment for everybody and it's going to make people angry. The small business person might be having a lousy day and no customers are coming in, but she'll be getting job-seekers. In the hospitality industry most of the time you know straight away whether someone can pour a cup of coffee. You don't want that person coming back month after month.''

Mr. Hartsuyker (as befits a member of the modern National Party of Australia)  responded  to a complex issue in a simplistic, one-dimensional media grab.

The Australian 30 July 2014:

Unemployed people will be penalised if they indiscriminately spam employers with applications rather than make genuine efforts to find work.

Jobseekers who do not use a range of job search techniques — or approach a range of would-be employers — will face compliance, said a spokesman for ­Assistant Minister for Employment Luke Hartsuyker.

This may include financial penalties or payment suspensions. Under the new employment services 2015 model, which will compel jobseekers to apply for 40 jobs a month, providers will be able to initiate compliance ­actions against those whose ­efforts are clearly unsatisfactory or non-genuine.

Unemployed people can use technology to make jobseeking more efficient, but may be penalised if it can be shown that their use of technology is not part of a genuine effort to find work.

Hartsuyker is proving himself to be a political fool of the first water.

Snapshot taken from The Australian video & graphic found at Google Images

A taste of things to come with the Abbott Government unemployment policy or the flimsey excuse that will be used by Abbott & Co to further harry the unemployed?

The Guardian reports on a taste of things to come, 29 July 2014:

I applied for 40 jobs in nine minutes…

I've just tested how fast I could meet the 40 job application requirement and it only took me nine minutes, albeit with ready internet access.

Here's how:

I created a profile on job search website seek.com.au. You can set up a profile with all your details, including your previous employment history and a resume. I created a fake profile (welcome to the workforce, Mr Fakey McName, former CEO of Awesome Corporation) and uploaded a dummy resume.

I helpfully put a line at the top of my resume to let people know that this was not a serious job application, and included a picture of a kitten in a hat to alleviate any feelings of ill will my fake application might create.

Once you've got your profile, you just need to do a search (I clicked on all "marketing" jobs) and shortlist a bunch of job ads. From your shortlist you can click through to apply for each job. Some job ads take you to their own website and application process – I skipped these, and instead only used job ads that made use of Seek's built-in application system.

Seek allows you to then apply for the job with around two clicks. The details of the job application are sent to your email, which you then have on record in case you might need them for a job seeker diary (not that I'm advocating any rorting of the system, this is purely an academic exercise)….

It's pretty clear that if someone was determined to merely fulfil their 40-job quota, and then concentrate on finding work they would actually like (or not), this new requirement is likely only to create a headache for the people tasked with sorting through job applications.

Federal Assistant Employment Minister Luke Hartsuyker and Ben Fordham indulge in jobseeker bashing during 2GB interview

Snapshot taken from www.2gb.com on 27 July 2014

In Job Seeker Compliance Data released for the March 2014 Quarter there were 858,104 jobseekers receiving unemployment benefits, of which 643,511 were active jobseekers who attended 2.215 million scheduled appointments with employment service providers.

From 1 January to 31 March 2014 Centrelink issued 121,216 Participation Reports (non-compliance), 20 per cent of which involved jobseekers whom the department considered had a reasonable excuse but who did not give prior notice of non-attendance and 15 per cent of which were the jobseeker’s first instance of a participation report.

A reasonable excuse can involve medical issues, caring responsibilities for a sick child or relative, homelessness, transport difficulties, recent bereavement, literacy or language difficulties, legal appointment, court appearance, attending a job interview, doing paid work/found a job, or other circumstances.

Of those jobseekers who failed to attend their usual appointment or did not comply with other requirements, a total of 215,284 had their benefit payment suspended under the new compliance arrangements introduced from 1 July 2011. Non-payment penalty periods generally are for a period of eight weeks.

Out of all those 858,104 registered jobseekers (including school leavers) only 137 refused a suitable job offered and only 183 did not turn up to commence a suitable job.

Yet 2GB radio’s Ben Fordham and the Assistant Minister for Employment in the Abbott Government, Luke Hartsuyker, indulged in some classic jobseeker bashing on Friday 25 July 2014.

With Hartsuyker stating that the reasonable excuse definition was being “toughened" and, not turning up for a scheduled appointment because it was “too hot or too cold or I couldn’t be bothered certainly doesn’t cut it”. For Hartsuyker to so misrepresent what is currently considered a reasonable excuse is extremely dishonest. 

For 2GB to call registered job seekers "dole bludgers" and Fordham to decide that all people who refuse jobs or do not turn up to interviews is because "they just can't be bothered" was dog whistling at its best.

To place job seeking in perspective, in seasonally adjusted terms in February 2014 there were 743,100 unemployed people across Australia of which 218,400 were in New South Wales.

That same month there were 143,600 job vacancies nationally and only 49,600 of these were in New South Wales according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Looking at jobs advertised online in the Northern River region it is likely that there were as few as 500-600 job vacancies in that February and most of these would not have been for permanent full-time employment.

Nationals MP and Assistant Employment Minister Luke Hartsuyker indulges in job seeker demonization

Macleay Argus: Luke Hartsuyker being sworn in on 18 September 2013

This was Nationals MP for Cowper and Federal Assistant Minister for Employment, Luke Hartsuyker, in a media release on 14 November 2013:

Each year around 35 000 job seekers are reported by their employment service providers for a failure to meet these requirements on five or more occasions.

This is an unacceptably high figure.

The Government is committed to ensuring all job seekers are held accountable for their behaviour when they repeatedly fail to meet their job search obligations.

Australia’s welfare system provides a safety net for people who lose their job.  In return, taxpayers ask that job seekers take seriously their obligation to look for work.

The Government is committed to ensuring that all job seekers understand and fully adhere to their mutual obligation requirements.

What Mr. Hartsuyker didn’t say is that as at 30 June 2013 there were 821,789 job seekers spread across Australia and that 15 per cent of these had a vulnerability indicator such as mental illness or homelessness.

Nor did he say that since 4 March 2013 employment service providers can report these job seekers after one attempt at notification e.g. one missed telephone call.

The Assistant Minster also did not mention that if a service provider decides to generate a report then this report must now be submitted within two business days of the single failed notification attempt.

Neither did he point out that from 1 July 2012 to 31 June 2013 a total of 231,732 or 29 per cent of all participation reports (non-compliance) submitted by employment service providers were rejected by the department; with 9 per cent being rejected because the reports were not valid, 20 per cent being rejected because the job seeker did not receive notification, was not notified correctly, or was not given enough time to meet their requirement and, 62 per cent being rejected because the job seeker had a reasonable excuse.

And while Mr. Hartsuyker’s 35,000 is a nice round figure, the fact remains that in the twelve months up to 30 June 2013 there were actually 33,685 individuals (or 4 per cent of all job seekers) who had been the subject of 5+ non-compliance reports.

It is highly likely that the department rejected some of these non-compliance reports on some of these individuals.

Again something he failed to point out in his not so subtle attempt to turn the electorate against people on unemployment benefits.

Australian Opposition Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey and national unemployment rates

Opposition Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey frequently refers to Australia having had a lower national unemployment rate during the Coalition’s last term in federal government. He was doing so on again on 11 March when discussing that month’s unemployment figures.

On the floor of the House of Representatives in February 2012 he erroneously stated:

Let us remind ourselves of what Labor inherited from the coalition: the lowest unemployment rate in a generation. I was the minister for employment that left Labor in February 2008 with an unemployment rate of four per cent, the lowest in at least 20 years. 

Here Hockey was shamelessly taking credit for a low national unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent (not the 4 per cent he quoted) which occurred during the term of the Rudd Labor Government.

Interestingly, his idea of a generation is somewhat limited as Baby Boomers might recall that unemployment in their childhood years was well below 4 per cent, averaging out at 2 per cent between 1945-6 and 1974-5.

So how much lower was the Howard Government’s unemployment rate during its last term when compared with the current Gillard Labor Government?

Well for the record Australian Bureau of Statistics data reveals it was between zero to a provisional 1.2 per cent lower across the Howard Government’s final term, using ‘swearing in’ months, end of year month figures and general election months.

Unemployment rates during the Federal Coalition Government’s last term in office from 16 November 2004 to 24 November 2007:

5.3% Nov 2004

5.1% Dec 2004

5.1% Dec 2005

4.6% Dec 2006

4.4% Nov 2007

A change of federal government occurred on 24 November 2007. The Howard Coalition Government departs and the Rudd Labor Government is sworn in on 3 December 2007, ending the caretaker period overseen by the public service.

Global Financial Crisis (mid 2007 – late 2009) begins to significantly impact on Australia in 2008.

Unemployment rates during the Federal Labor Government’s current term in office 14 September 2010 to date:

5.1% Sept 2010

5.1% Dec 2010

5.3% Dec 2011

5.4% Dec 2012

NK   Sept 2013

Or if you prefer a graph - here is one from Grog's Gamut:

A Crikey whistle-blower bites the dust?

On 9^th December 2010 an Executive Level 2 public servant went on leave until late January 2011.

On 22^nd December 2010 Crikey in its Tips and rumours segment published this:

“Climate Change in debt… The Department of Climate Change is planning a major debt recovery program in the New Year to recover hundreds of millions of dollars rorted under the Household Insulation Program/Low Emmission Assistance Program for Renters, and rescue packages including the Insulation Industry Assistance Program. The Department continues to mismanage not only the primary pink batts program, but all subsequent rescue programs as well at Australian taxpayers’ expense.
The Department is facing multi-million dollar lawsuits in which it does not have the capital to cover. Maybe this is the reason for Prime Minister Gillard appointing Dr Parkinson from the Department of Climate Change to the new role of Treasury Secretary to fund the bail-out.
…and sub-contracts training. The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency sub-contracts Price Waterhouse Coopers to manage the Home Insulation Safety and Rectification programs. Price Waterhouse Coopers sub-contract CSR Bradfords and United Group Limited to conduct inspections and rectifications of houses who had insulation installed under the failed pink batts program.
The Department is paying all training costs of CSR Bradfords staff to be trained as Home Insulation Safety Inspectors but not funding any component of United Group Limited contractors to undertake the same training. How much is the training costing the Australian tax payer and why the inequity in funding arrangements favouring one commercial organsiation over another?
And pink batts still cause grief. Almost 12 months after the Department of Climate Change cancelled its failed pink batts program installers are still no closer to finalising their affairs. Some businesses have gone into liquidation, losing everything they have, while others have resorted to other more desperate means by attempting to take their own lives (which the Department is well aware of). Still the Department mismanages the clean-up of this disastrous insulation program. Not that you would know with a number of executives in the Department responsible for the program getting performance bonuses, awards or promotions as a result of their participation.”
There was another mention of the department in Tips and rumours on 10^th January 2011.

On 30^th January 2011 this public servant lost his job and on 7^th June 2011 his dismissal from the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency was confirmed in a decision by Fair Work Australia. On 16^th September 2011 an appeal of this decision was dismissed.

Crikey was mentioned almost in the same breath as “potential breaches of the Australian Public Service (APS) Code of Conduct”. It seems Now with extra source has a dangerous ring to it if you want to walk those departmental corridors.

Lack of public facilities such as transport in rural and regional Oz

Last year the local community of ***** (name removed) buried young ****** (name removed).


***** hanged himself out of despair. Centrelink hounded him.

In order to pacify Centrelink ***** drove everywhere to find work, often in an unregistered vehicle as he had not the means to pay for registration.

Individuals like ***** end up driving, often without a licence, and more often in unregistered vehicles. The seeds of criminality begin this way, from despair.

Truth is, this is not an isolated incident.

Over to you Mr Rudd et al.

Source: Read this

Possum Comitatus does June 2009 Australian labor force statistics by region

Map showing changes in unemployment rate by region since the 2007 election

Click map to enlarge

1. Where the derived unemployment rate has actually reduced since the last election (yes, as surprising as it might sound, such places do exist!). We'll represent these regions with a cross-hatch.

2. Where the unemployment rate has increased by between zero and 3% since the last election. We'll represent these areas with vertical horizontal lines (Ha! Sorry about that…)

3. Where the unemployment rate has increased by more than 3% since the last election. We'll represent these areas as vertical lines.

Once again Possum shines a light on statistics and gives an easily digestible representation of the growing mountain of numbers which now come our way thanks to the cyber highway.

This year the NSW North Coast continues showing an positive picture when it comes to falling unemployment rates.

The Tweed-Richmond & Mid North Coast showed a regional unemployment rate of 7.1% for the May quarter - a fall of 1.1% on the same quarter in 2008 and a regional rate of 6.3% for the June quarter 2009.

However, it must be remembered that this region starts from a chronically high rate compared to the New South Wales average and as people become discouraged by a lack of local employment prospects the workforce participation rate continues to be relatively low.

Job Services Australia 2009: unemployment service providers for the NSW North Coast

From the Minister's media release:

Providers for Job Services Australia will begin operation from July 1. There will be a 12 month transition period for job seekers to Job Services Australia providers........
Job Services Australia folds seven separate employment services programs into a 'one-stop-shop' that provides job seekers with a more personalised service......
There will be 116 contracts servicing job seekers across Australia. The 116 contracts comprise individual organisations or groups of organisations totalling 141 providers. They will be supported by at least 48 sub contractors.
There will be more than 2000 Job Service Australia sites across the nation, an increase from 1800 sites under the current system.........

Job seekers will receive a letter from April informing them of changes.
If job seekers have any queries they can call the customer service hotline 1800 805 260.

List of stream services by ESA:

Clarence NSW	ACET australia	Indigenous Australians	Grafton, Maclean, Yamba
	Key Employment	People with a disability	Grafton, Maclean
	Nortec Employment and Training Limited	Generalist	Grafton, Yamba
	Tursa Employment & Training Inc.	Generalist	Grafton, Maclean, Yamba

Coffs Harbour NSW	ACET australia	Indigenous Australians	Coffs Harbour, Corindi Beach, Nambucca Heads
	Enterprise and Training Company Ltd	Generalist	Bellingen, Coffs Harbour, Dorrigo, Nambucca Heads, Toormina, Woolgoolga
	Ngurrala Aboriginal Corporation	Indigenous Australians	Macksville, Nambucca Heads
	Nortec Employment and Training Limited	Generalist	Bellingen, Coffs Harbour, Dorrigo, Nambucca Heads, Woolgoolga
	Tursa Employment & Training Inc.	Generalist	Bellingen, Coffs Harbour, Nambucca Heads, Woolgoolga

North Coast NSW	Bunjum Employment Services Pty Ltd ABN 45102978129	Indigenous Australians	Ballina
	Jobfind Centres Australia Pty Ltd	Generalist	Ballina, Brunswick Heads, Byron Bay
	Nortec Employment and Training Limited	Generalist	Ballina, Brunswick Heads, Byron Bay
	Tursa Employment & Training Inc.	Generalist	Ballina, Brunswick Heads, Byron Bay, Mullumbimby

Richmond NSW	Job Futures Ltd	Youth At Risk	Casino, Kyogle, Lismore, Nimbin
	Jobfind Centres Australia Pty Ltd	Generalist	Casino, Lismore, Woodburn
	Nortec Employment and Training Limited	Generalist	Casino, Kyogle, Lismore, Nimbin
	Summit Employment and Training	Indigenous Australians	Casino, Kyogle, Lismore
	Tursa Employment & Training Inc.	Generalist	Casino, Kyogle, Lismore
	Yabur Yulgun CDEP Aboriginal Corporation	Indigenous Australians	Lismore

Tweed NSW	Nortec Employment and Training Limited	Generalist	Bray Park, Kingscliff, Murwillumbah, Pottsville, Tweed Heads South
	The Salvation Army Employment Plus	Generalist	Murwillumbah, Tweed Heads South
	Tursa Employment & Training Inc.	Generalist	Kingscliff, Murwillumbah, South Tweed Heads
	Yabur Yulgun CDEP Aboriginal Corporation	Indigenous Australians	Tweed Heads

What the masses are saying about King Rudd this week

A small sampling from The Courier Mail of what people are saying online about Kevin Rudd's call for wage restraint.
The overall response was mixed, but if the Bananabenders are not really supporting their native son, then it must be on the nose with voters.

John Howard awarded his senior advisors bonuses and I had one thing to say "STUPID, STUPID, STUPID." Now Rudd does the same thing and I still only HAVE one thing to say "STUPID, STUPID, STUPID."
Posted by: andi of Ausie Ausie Ausie 11:38am today Comment 169 of 193

This make me ill.
I had to reduce my work hours at my work and take a pay cut. The union agreed that this was the case as all the floor workers reduced thier hours. My family is going to hurt because of the reduction of my wage but we will manage.
What happened to a 'fair go' Mr Rudd I voted for you to scrap IR laws and to secure not only mine but my kids future. I cant understand what you are saying you give us money to spend at Christmas then turn around and say we are greedy, then give your staff a pay rise. The tough economic times are not the fault of the ALP but what are Mr Rudd and MR Swann going to do other than talk? Why does Mr Rudd giving the elite a pay rise and the worker a bone. This is typical Johnny Howard and Pete Costello Liberal stuff not the ALP. Who side are you on Mr Rudd , because it doesnt look like you are on mine.
Posted by: Simon of Raceview 11:04am today Comment 149 of 193

He giveth with one hand and taketh away with the other ! Well, it's bound to happen when a man thinks that he is God !
Posted by: Brad Coward of Brisbane 8:29am today Comment 39 of 193

Rudd is just following the lead of his mates down the big end of town. Do a good job, get a bonus. Stuff things up completely, still get a bonus.
Posted by: oldefellah of Coral Coast 8:04am today Comment 22 of 193

The irony here is that Rudd's policy 'advisers' would have concocted his latest little spruik that - 'greed is bad, and workers must defer wage claims'. But then...some are more equal than others eh, comrade ?
Posted by: Alf of Carindale 8:04am today Comment 21 of 193

COMRADES ! Some of use are MORE EQUAL than others ! Oink Oink Oink. Greedy little piggies with their snouts in the trough.
Posted by: Denny Crane of Grange 8:01am today Comment 20 of 193

And from the blogs, this example.

The biggest enemy of "working families" is not the financial crisis. It is the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, and his offensive and simplistic suggestion that middle Australia should show restraint in wage negotiations so as not to compromise their jobs.People are not morally obliged to remedy problems not of their doing. Families struggling to afford the necessities of modern life made no contribution to the financial problems. They owe nothing to the rest of community when it comes to wage negotiations.The suggestion that more money for bosses equals more jobs for workers breaks the laws of economics and human nature. Trickle-down economics has long been discredited; there are simply too many greedy sponges at the top. Rudd's call for wage restraint is a misguided justification for employers to exploit the vulnerable by undervaluing the toils of their labour.
From Notes on A Civil Society post on 21 January 2009

Possum explains those Australian unemployment figures

It is always a joy to see Possum Comitatus breakdown the gobbledegook surrounding government agency statistics.

The Statistical Reality of the Unemployment Figures post was no exception and, although a job lost involves real pain (something we know well in the NSW Northern Rivers), it was enlightening to see how the statistical margin of error played out in the latest numbers:

The actual Labor Force Survey results can be easily downloaded, and toward the end of the document – pages 28 and 29 to be exact – the ABS has gone to the trouble of providing the standard errors of not only the point estimates of all the unemployment metrics, but also the standard errors of the monthly change in those metrics. It's quite nice of them to do that since the press doesn't seem to pay any bloody attention to them whatsoever. But their incompetence aside, what these standard errors allow us to do is create a maximum margin or error for the unemployment figures using a 95% Confidence Interval – just as we do with the polling, and more particularly, Pollytrack.....

First up, the change in Full Time job numbers. The seasonally adjusted point estimate suggested that 43,900 full time jobs were lost between November and December of 08. We can be nearly 100% confident that the 43,900 figure that is getting so much attention isn't actually true.

What we can say is that there is a 95% probability that the true change in full time job numbers was somewhere between a gain of 6300 full time jobs and a loss of 94100 jobs, for the margin or error attached to the 43900 full time job loss figure is a whopping 50200. .....

On the trend figures, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.4%, full time employment dropped by 11,200 nationally and total employment increased by 2000.

Far from this being a terrible result requiring widespread bouts of wrist slashing – in the broader scheme of things and considering the state of the international economy, it's probably a remarkably good result. I say 'probably' because we must acknowledge the large uncertainty involved in the figures - the point estimates really aren't the gospel they are too often made out to be.

What happens in the future is unknowable, things might tank, things might not - but what we should all be aware of is just how much uncertainty is actually contained in these figures.

Of course it would be too optimistic to hope that Malcolm Turnbull and friends would approach these figures with a degree of calm.

Over at Liberal Party headquarters they were shouting out that there will be More Than Half A Million Australians Out Of Work and waxing lyrical about the Howard years.

While Access Economics (in attention getting language aimed at front page media coverage) is predicting 300,000 jobs will be lost in the next twelve months, but also appears to be predicting modest national growth by 2009-10.

By late last night Channel 10 News had hysterically taken the figure higher to a million unemployed

Think I'll place my trust in Poss and wait for more concrete figures to come in over the next year. Access Economics director Chris Richardson now cries Wolf! so often that I no longer find his media announcments all that credible.