AUSTRALIAN SOCIETY STATE OF PLAY: Interest rates and cost of living - there is no good news in November 2023

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The Reserve Bank of Australia as one of its monetary policy decision tools employs a cash rate target.

In the Reserve Bank's own words:

The cash rate is the interest rate that banks pay to borrow funds from other banks in the money market overnight. It influences all other interest rates, including mortgage and deposit rates.

In technical terms, it is the interest rate on unsecured overnight loans between banks (loans banks use to manage their liquidity). It is our operational target for the implementation of monetary policy.

The Bank's inflation target is; to keep annual consumer price inflation at between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time.

On 7 September 2016 the Australian Reserve Bank cash rate target stood at 1.50% and it remained unchanged for over two year and seven months, until it fell by 25 basis points to 1.25% on 5 June 2019.

The cash rate target continued to fall the next five months until it reached 0.10% on 4 November 2020 and remained unchanged until 4 May 2022 when it rose to 0.35%.

Since then the monthly cash rate target announcements began to tread water on 5 July 2023 at 4.10%.

Sadly, on 8 November 2023 the cash rate target again rose by 25 basis points to 4.35% - the 13th rate hike since May 2022.

The Reserve Bank's next monthly target announcement is due on Tuesday, 5 December 2023.

As for the Reserve Bank's inflation target of keeping consumer price inflation at between 2 and 3 per cent, this target range had been met consistently for the ten and a half years up to December Quarter 2021 and ever since been consistently exceeded. Peaking at 7.8% in December Quarter 2022 before gradually falling to 5.4% in September Quarter 2023 with a monthly indicator of 5.6%.

I suggest that readers do not anticipate any interest rate relief this coming December. Nor expect any significant fall in the Living Cost Index or Consumer Price Index as the country enters 2024.

If The Guardian article on the latest Essential Research poll is correct, it is likely that the more than half of all Australian voters who reportedly are struggling financially will read the following with a jaundiced eye.......

Reserve Bank of Australia, MediaRelease, 7 November 2023:

Statement by Michele Bullock, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision Number 2023-30

Date 7 November 2023

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent.

Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago. The latest reading on CPI inflation indicates that while goods price inflation has eased further, the prices of many services are continuing to rise briskly. While the central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline, progress looks to be slower than earlier expected. CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3½ per cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of 2025. The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The Board had held interest rates steady since June following an increase of 4 percentage points since May last year. It had judged that higher interest rates were working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. Furthermore, it had noted that the impact of the more recent rate rises would continue to flow through the economy. It had therefore decided that it was appropriate to hold rates steady to provide time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates so far. In particular, the Board had indicated that it would be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.

Since its August meeting, the Board has received updated information on inflation, the labour market, economic activity and the revised set of forecasts. The weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased. While the economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it has been stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market have eased but they remain tight. Housing prices are continuing to rise across the country.

At the same time, high inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Given that the economy is forecast to grow below trend, employment is expected to grow slower than the labour force and the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to around 4¼ per cent. This is a more moderate increase than previously forecast. Wages growth has picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. Services price inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could occur in Australia. There are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income. And globally, there remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Scientists call ‘Code Blue emergency’ for Australian oceans, as off-the-scale marine heat looms

 

OCEAN
IMAGE: AdobeStock_207088658

Climate Council, media release, 9 November 2023:

Scientists call ‘Code Blue emergency’ for Aussie oceans, as off-the-scale marine heat looms

AUSTRALIA’S OCEANS ARE in crisis, as extreme heat punishes marine life and raises the spectre of irreversible changes with profound consequences for all life on our planet, a new report has found.

The Climate Council’s CodeBlue: Oceans in Crisis report reveals the immense amount of climate-change induced heat currently being absorbed by the world’s oceans is equivalent to boiling the Sydney Harbour every eight minutes.

In addition, the Climate Council ran a highly targeted survey of 30 leading ocean scientists across five continents. All (100%) were ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ concerned about climate-driven changes to the world’s oceans. Half (53%) said these changes were outpacing scientific predictions.

Overwhelmingly, these scientists agreed ‘rapidly phasing out fossil fuels’ is the single most important action governments could take to address ocean warming.

Report author and the Climate Council’s Research Director Dr Simon Bradshaw said: "The science can’t be any clearer: our oceans are in deep trouble. Today the ocean is absorbing excess heat energy that’s equivalent to five Hiroshima bomb explosions every second, or enough to boil Sydney Harbour every eight minutes. [my yellow highlighting]

"As our climate changes, driven by rampant burning of coal, oil and gas, our seas are transforming before our eyes. More frequent and severe marine heatwaves are pushing coral reefs to the brink, ice sheets are melting at an alarming rate, ocean currents are slowing and seas are rising. The climate crisis is also an ocean crisis.

"In hospital emergency rooms, a code blue is called when a very serious life-threatening event is underway. We are calling a code blue for our oceans today, because this threatens all the species that inhabit them, the people who depend on them, as well as all life on land.

"Over the past few decades as the climate has warmed, the oceans have done an incredible job of protecting us by absorbing CO2 and an immense amount of heat, but there’s a limit to what they can take and we are close to crossing dangerous tipping points. We must scale up the use of clean energy like solar and wind, backed by storage, as quickly as we can so the use of coal, oil and gas is phased out. Every step that cuts pollution will help secure our future."

Ocean scientist Professor Gretta Pecl, Director for the Centre for Marine Socioecology at the University of Tasmania, author of the Australian ocean section of the latest IPCC report and report co-author added: “Make no mistake, ocean scientists around the world are growing increasingly concerned about rapid and intensifying changes to our oceans.

"While much of the worry for the brutal summer ahead is quite rightly about the impact on our iconic Great Barrier Reef, the scientific community is also extremely concerned about the Great Southern Reef. With forecasts of unprecedented and 'off the charts' marine heat this summer, these critical marine ecosystems face risk of utter devastation.

"We’re observing the transformation of the oceans in real time, as marine species move to survive. In Australia, at least 200 marine species have shifted since 2003, with the vast majority headed south. As waters warm further south, many will have nowhere left to go.

"While climate change has already caused extensive change to our oceans - and we’ll continue to see devastating impacts for decades - stronger action by governments to reign in fossil fuels right now can limit future harms and ensure more species and ecosystems are given a fighting chance. Scientists agree: the single most important action we can take now is to leave fossil fuels in the polluting past - and it has to happen this decade."

Pro-surfer Adrian ‘Ace’ Buchan, Surfing Australia Deputy Chairman, has joined the Climate Council’s call to declare a Code Blue emergency, adding: “Surfers have a deep and spiritual connection to the ocean and we are deeply concerned about the devastating impact the climate crisis is having on our big blue playground. Erosion is threatening our most iconic surfing spots. Our water is being polluted from flood runoff and dangerous jellyfish moving south. Loss of coral reefs and impacts on sandbars, is not just altering where and how waves break, but is also having devastating impacts on marine life.

"This is all terrible news for the millions of ocean loving Aussies - every one of whom should be concerned and take note. This is a call to action: we must work to draw attention to the ocean’s plight and push for decisive and rapid climate action now."

Tishiko King, a proud Kulkalaig woman from Masig in Zenadth Kes (Torres Strait Islands) marine scientist and co-author of the report said: “We know what is needed to protect our futures: leaving fossil fuels in the ground, having the resources to adapt to our changing climate and ocean, being able to access funds to address loss and damage.

"We have the opportunity to work together: First Nations, Pacific Island nations, non-Indigenous Australians. It starts by listening, and understanding what we all have in common. The ocean is what connects us all together."

ENDS

The Climate Council is Australia’s leading community-funded climate change communications organisation. It was founded through community donations in 2013, immediately after the then-Abbott Government dismantled the Climate Commission. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community. For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au Or follow us on social media: facebook.com/climatecouncil and twitter.com/climatecouncil

Full report can be found at:

https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/code-blue-our-oceans-in-crisis/

Global ocean heat is intensifying and seas below the 30th Parallel South appear to have seen the largest increase in absorbed & accumulated heat

 

‘The world ocean, in 2023, is now the hottest ever recorded, and sea levels are rising because heat causes water to expand and ice to melt,’...‘Ecosystems are also experiencing unprecedented heat stress, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are changing rapidly, and the costs are enormous.’ [Scientia Professor Matthew England, co-author of the study from the UNSW Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, in the Echo, 6 November 2023]

Over the years science has made the general public increasingly aware that anthropomorphic global warming and subsequent climate change has been heating the world's oceans beyond their normal temperature range.

What we aren't always aware of is exactly which oceans are exhibiting the most persistent warming and the fastest temperature rises.

This recent study below highlights those particular oceans.

It seems that ocean waters from the 30th Parallel south (latitude: -30° 00' 0.00" S longitude: 0° 00' 0.00") are experiencing the most rapid increase in temperatures.

To place that in perspective. From a line running through Australian waters from a point roughly halfway between Red Rock on the Clarence Coast and Corindi Beach on the Coffs Coast (NSW), right down to Tasmania and on towards Antarctica, seawater is heating and expanding until at latest measurement the reading over time now stands at 75.3 ± 4.

While from around Cape Leeuwin to Antarctica the reading is 43.2 ± 4.4.

On the Australian west coast the 30th Parallel can be thought of as running on a latitude approximately halfway between Leeman and Green Head (WA).

This study appears to indicate that, sooner rather than later, the considerable impacts of climate change will increase for the Australian population.

Nature Communications, Article number: 6888 (2023), 28 October 2023, excerpts:

Recentacceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode andintermediate waters

Authors: Zhi Li, Matthew H. England & Sjoerd Groeskamp

The ocean directly impacts the Earth’s climate by absorbing and redistributing large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and by exchanging these properties with the atmosphere1. About 91% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases and 31% of human emissions of carbon dioxide2 are stored in the ocean, shielding humans from even more rapid changes in climate. However, warmer oceans result in sea-level rise, ice-shelf melt, intensified storms, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, as well as more severe marine species and ecosystem damage. These effects depend on the pattern of ocean warming; it is thus critical to quantify the dynamics and distribution of ocean warming to better understand its consequences and predict its implications.

The observed distribution of ocean warming is not uniform. About 90% of total ocean warming is found in the upper 2000 m, with over two-thirds concentrated in the upper 700 since the 1950s, and an increase of warming rates at both intermediate depths of 700–2000 m, and in the deeper ocean below 2000 m. The Southern Ocean south of 30°S has been estimated to account for 35–43% of global ocean warming from 1970 to 2017, and an even greater proportion in recent years, while Northern Hemisphere ocean warming appears to be concentrated in the Atlantic Ocean. Due to the accumulated excess heat in ocean basins, an acceleration of total ocean warming has become more evident from recent observational-based studies. While much past work has focused on the distribution of ocean warming as a function of depth and basin, relatively little analysis has been undertaken of the distribution as a function of water-mass layers and within specific water masses. This is the focus of the present study......

When evaluating the ocean heat uptake for each decade (“Methods”), analysis of the past three decades reveals that the ocean heat uptake during 2010–2020 has increased more than 25% relative to 2000–2010 and has nearly doubled relative to the 1990’s WOCE era, as seen in Fig. 1b, where we highlight the decadal ocean heat uptake since the 1960s. Note that there has been both increased ocean sampling and a shift of the observational network from a ship-based system to the Argo network since the initiation of the global Argo array (2001–2003)34. This may impact the estimated increase in global ocean warming over the past three decades (Fig. 1). However, the rate of global mean sea-level rise has also been increasing since 1993 based on an independent estimate from satellite altimeter data1,35, providing confidence in our results given that half of the global sea surface height increase is due to thermal expansion of the ocean since altimeter measurements began. Significant ocean warming and accelerating OHC changes are also consistent with the increase in net radiative energy absorbed by Earth detected in satellite observations, something that is likely to continue throughout the 21st century in the absence of substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

The increased ocean warming is non-uniformly distributed across ocean basins. Overall, in each ocean basin, an increase in OHC is observed (values indicated in Fig. 2a, b), with stronger warming in the mid-latitude Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean compared with other basins. Total warming in the Southern Ocean is estimated to account for ~31% of the global upper 2000-m OHC increase from 1980–2000 to 2000–2010 (Fig. 2a), and almost half of the global OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020 (values indicated in parentheses of Fig. 2b). Hence the Southern Ocean has seen the largest increase in heat storage over the past two decades, holding almost the same excess anthropogenic heat as the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans north of 30°S combined (Fig. 2d). The most striking warming in the Southern Ocean is concentrated on the northern flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the location of deep mixed layers and subduction hotspots for Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water, as well as the location of subtropical mode waters formation further equatorward (Fig. 3). The well-ventilated regions near western boundary current extensions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific also reveal large warming over the past two decades. These hotspots of ocean warming are likely linked to enhanced uptake, subduction, and lateral spreading of heat associated with mode and intermediate waters that warrant further investigation.

Fig. 2: Regional intensification in ocean warming over the past two decades, 0–2000 m. Click on image to enlarge

The ensemble mean of ocean heat content (OHC) changes averaged for years a 2000–2010 and b 2010–2020, relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Units of shadings in panels (a, b) are shown as 109 J m−2. The values over each basin indicate the OHC increase relative to the 1980–2000 mean over the Southern (S.O., south of 30°S, dark-red line), Atlantic (ATL), Pacific (PAC), and Indian (IND) Oceans, and are limited to 65°S–65°N. Units are shown as 1021. The values in parentheses in panel (b) indicate the basin-integrated OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020. The basin mask used to distinguish ocean basins of the Southern, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans is obtained from ref.  Superimposed gray contours represent the positions of wintertime isopycnals 25, 26.45, 27.05, and 27.5 kg m−3 at 10 m depth from SIO RG-Argo. c, d Zonally integrated OHC change (1021 per degree latitude) versus latitude for the period 2000–2010 (blue line), and 2010–2020 (red line), relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Lines in panels (c) and (d) represent the ensemble mean, and shadings indicate the ±2 ensemble standard deviation uncertainty range (±2σ) of OHC changes.

[my yellow highlighting in the excerpts]

The full study can be read and downloaded at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z#ref-CR13

The NSW Minns Government continues to make the right noises about ceasing residential development on the state's floodplains, however it is uncertain how committed it will be in practice given the pressure construction & development industries can bring to bear

 An number of uncomfortable caveats are apparent in the following statements made concerning New South Wales floodplains....

*yellow highlighting in this post is mine*

AAP General News Wire. 3 November 2023:

More planned developments could be scraped in NSW after a state government report found there was a risk to residents' lives in flood plain areas.

Plans to build extra homes on high-risk flood plains could be shelved across NSW after the state government axed the rezoning of land on Sydney's outskirts.

The decision to scale back the developments on the city's northwestern fringe followed a state government flood report that declared there would be a “risk to life” in the case of a mass evacuation.

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the government was considering extending the measure to any dangerous flood plain area, although he declined to give a clear definition of what that would entail.

"It's one, not unreasonably, that puts lives at risk," he told a budget estimates hearing on Friday.

"The definition of dangerous will vary based on the frequency, the severity (and) the capacity for people to leave."

The state government on Sunday announced it was scrapping rezoning plans for Marsden Park North and parts of West Schofields, which were due to be developed with more than 10,000 homes.

Plans for a new Riverstone Town Centre will also no longer go ahead.

The decision followed the release of a flood evacuation report, which found there was a risk to life in areas such as the Hawkesbury-Nepean basin.

Mr Scully on Friday described the area as the plain with the highest unmitigated flood risk of anywhere in Australia.

The report said the number of people unable to evacuate from the region in the case of a flood increased significantly if all potential development was to occur.

"For example, for a 1-in-500 chance per year flood (similar to the worst flood on record), the risk to life would increase from an estimated 980 people under committed development to around 23,700 people by 2041," it read.

Opposition Leader Mark Speakman called on the government to be transparent about its modelling, referring to criticisms of the evacuation report by former NSW Police deputy commissioner Dave Owens.

"Obviously governments cannot be reckless and put people in harm's way," he told ABC Radio.

Pressed at estimates about whether the government would stop housing developments in other flood-plain regions, such as Clarence Valley in the Northern Rivers, Mr Scully said he was "looking at all options".

"Where there are cases where we believe there should be an intervention, that will happen," he said.

"As a broader policy work, that continues.

"We absolutely won't put lives unnecessarily at risk by building on dangerous flood lines."

Mr Scully said if housing developments did not go ahead, the land could be used in alternative ways.

"Just because you can't use a piece of land for residential use, doesn't mean you can't use it for other uses ... there's sporting fields, there's biodiversity, there's the potential for areas to be zoned as industrial or commercial," he said.

Deputy Premier, Minister for Planning and Public Spaces & Labor MP for Wollongong Paul Scully, media release, 29 October 2023:

Focus on prevention to reduce risk to life during floods in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley

Published: 29 October 2023

The NSW Government is delivering on its election commitment to no longer develop housing on high-risk flood plains in Western Sydney.

The Government is today announcing it has rezoned parts of the North-West Growth corridor to ensure NSW does not construct new homes in high-risk areas.

The Government is also releasing the Flood Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, which informed the rezoning decisions.

No more building on high-risk flood plains

We cannot continue to develop and build new residential towns in high-risk areas, and risk putting more people in harm’s way.

Following a rigorous assessment process and review of expert advice on flooding, it has been determined the proposed rezoning and draft plans for Marsden Park North precinct and Riverstone Town Centre will not proceed.

The plans for the West Schofields precinct will partially proceed, subject to strict conditions.

The three projects fall within the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley floodplain and were put on hold in 2020 until further flood risk investigations and evacuation modelling were completed.

It means that, in line with the NSW Government’s election commitment, and in taking a risk-based approach to planning decisions on dangerous flood plains, of the approximately 12,700 new homes previously proposed – but not approved – under the three rezonings, only up to 2,300 will now proceed.

The NSW Government will continue to work closely with councils and other stakeholders to explore suitable land-use options.

Work is also underway to understand where additional housing can be accommodated to mitigate the impacts of these decisions on the housing pipeline.

Flood Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley

The land-use planning decisions follow the release of Flood Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley.

The modelling was undertaken to help make better decisions on emergency evacuations, land use planning and road upgrades in one of Australia’s most dangerous flood risk areas.

The former NSW government commissioned an independent expert inquiry led by Mary O’Kane and Mick Fuller into the preparation for, causes of, response to and recovery from the 2022 catastrophic flood event across the state of NSW.

Key recommendations in the report included revised and updated flood modelling and disaster adaption plans to help resolve rezoning decisions.

This updated modelling has been instrumental in the NSW Government’s consideration of the three planning proposals in Sydney’s North-West Growth Area.

The Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley covers over 500km2 of floodplain in Western Sydney, stretching from Wallacia to Brooklyn and Wisemans Ferry.

It includes land in Hawkesbury, Hills, Blacktown, Penrith, Central Coast, Wollondilly, Liverpool and Hornsby Local Government Areas with more than 140,000 people living or working in the floodplain.

The valley is often compared to a bathtub – one with five ‘taps’ flowing in and only one drain. Between 2020 and 2022, the area flooded six times with some of the largest floods seen in decades.

Sadly, this area has suffered even bigger floods in the past, and the Government must consider the risk of similar floods in the future.

The extreme depth of floods in the valley means that large numbers of people often need to evacuate at short notice before roads out are cut off. It is not possible to shelter in place in these areas.

Adding to the complexity, thousands of vehicles need to evacuate using roads and intersections that were not designed for those levels of traffic.

This technical Flood Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley will be used to reduce the risk to life by informing better planned evacuation routes for flood events, assesses potential road infrastructure options and inform decisions on potential future developments.

While improvements can be made, the flood challenges of the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley are not ones that communities can build their way out of.

The report makes clear that the number of people who will be unable to evacuate increases significantly with potential future development and climate change.

Recognising that decisions to limit new homes on the flood plain could raise concerns for small local landowners, the Government has appointed strategic planning expert Professor Roberta Ryan to provide independent community liaison support to help affected landowners them understand and navigate the issues.

Professor Ryan has previously assisted communities in the Western Sydney Aerotropolis and Orchard Hills on land-use planning matters.

For more information read the Flood Evacuation Modelling report or more about flooding in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valleylaunch

A new focus on disaster preparedness

What is clear, is NSW’s ability to prevent and prepare for disasters has been hampered by ineffective funding, with 97% of all disaster funding spent after an event and only three per cent spent on prevention and preparedness.

It’s part of why the NSW Reconstruction Authority was established in December 2022 with the expanded responsibilities to include adaption, mitigation and preparedness for natural disasters.

As part of that, an historic $121 million has been invested in the last Budget to properly resource the NSW Reconstruction Authority and allow the authority to support communities across the state better prepare for natural disasters including bushfires, floods and storms.

The authority is working on a State Disaster Mitigation Plan and new regional Disaster Adaptation Plan to reduce the impact of floods in the Valley and this tool will also be used to better understand the risks.

Today’s announcement is a key example of the preventative work that will be prioritised to reduce the impacts of natural disasters in the state.

Minister for Western Sydney, Deputy Premier Prue Car said:

“Western Sydney residents have borne the brunt of recent disasters including the pandemic and floods in the Hawkesbury Nepean Valley.

“By stopping unsafe development in dangerous areas on flood plains, and with our Government’s work to reduce the risk of disasters before they happen, we’re making sure communities across Western Sydney, in areas including Penrith, Blacktown and Riverstone, are finally supported and better protected.

“When we consider new housing areas, we will look at both the potential for those homes to be inundated in floods, as well as the impact more homes will have on the ability of both new and existing residents to evacuate in emergencies.

“We know we can’t stop natural disasters from occurring, but we are committed to doing more to prepare for and prevent the worst of their impacts.”

“This new tool will not only help us better plan for evacuations but it will also make our amazing emergency service workers safer by reducing the risks they face when responding to floods in the valley.”

Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said:

“We’ve all seen the devastation caused by floods in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley – with homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. We also know these communities will only face more and worse flood risks if things stay the same.

“There’s no simple solution but we are working on a suite of measures which includes this tool to help NSW better prepare for disasters.

“These are hard and complex policy problems – we need to deliver new housing, but it needs to be done safely.

“New developments could impact the ability of both new and existing residents to evacuate safely during emergencies, which puts more lives at risk.

“I’d rather a disappointed landowner confront me over a decision we’ve made to keep them safe, rather than console them when they’ve lost a loved one because of floods.

“We’ve been clear that we will put an end to unsuitable development on dangerous flood plains which puts lives at risk and destroys livelihoods - this model gives us the technical data needed to make those informed decisions and balance competing priorities.”

****************************

Frequently Asked Questions

Flood Evacuation Modelling at:

https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-10/Hawkesbury%20Nepean%20Valley%20Flood%20Evacuation%20Model%20FEM%20FAQs.pdf