Australian Election Study survey conducted after 2019 federal election found Scott Morrison is most popular leader since 2007 - but not as popular as Kevin Rudd in his heigh day

The Australian Election Study (AES) has surveyed voters since 1987. With the exception of 1987 and 2007 the survey has been funded by the Australian Research Council and its predecessors.

AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,179 voters after the 2019 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election.

The respondents were composed of two groups - those who originally took part in the 2016 Australian Election Study and those who were newly surveyed for the 2019 study.

apo.og.au, Australian Election Study, 6 December 2019, Sarah Cameron, Ian McAllister, 2019 Australian federal election: results from the Australian Election Study, Description, excerpt: 

Highlights: 

Policy issues 

• A majority of voters (66%) cast their ballots based on policy issues. 

• The most important issues in the election identified by voters include management of the economy (24%), health (22%) and environmental issues (21%). 

• Voters preferred the Coalition’s policies on management of the economy, taxation, and immigration. 

• Voters preferred Labor’s policies on education, health, and the environment. 

Leaders

• Scott Morrison is the most popular political leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, scoring 5.1 on a zero to 10 popularity scale. [Note: In 2007 AES recorded Kevin Rudd as 6.3 on a zero to 10 popularity scale**]

• Bill Shorten is the least popular leader of a major political party since 1990. 

• A majority of voters (74%) disapproved of the way the Liberal Party handled the leadership change in 2018, when Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull. 

Political trust 

• Satisfaction with democracy is at its lowest level (59%) since the constitutional crisis of the 1970s. 

• Trust in government has reached its lowest level on record, with just 25% believing people in government can be trusted. 

• 56% of Australians believe that the government is run for ‘a few big interests’, while just 12% believe the government is run for ‘all the people’.  [my additional notation]

According to AES in 2007 eighty-six per cent of Australians were satisfied with the way democracy was working. However since then democratic satisfaction has fallen by twenty-seven per cent and “there has been a pattern of declining citizen trust in the political system. Trust has not declined significantly since the 2016 election, but nor has it recovered from record low levels”. 

That 2019 record low trust level represented a twenty percent decline after 2007.

In the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison years the perception that people in government look after themselves rose from 66% in 2013 to 74% in 2016 and 75% in 2019.

After the 2019 federal election only 1 in 4 Australians believe that people in government can be trusted to do the right thing.

The complete study can be read and downloaded here.

** other leaders besides Kevin Rudd who have gone to an election with an AES popularity score higher than that of Scott Morrison were; Bob Hawke (1987 & 1990), Kim Beazley (1988 & 2001), John Howard (1993,1996, 1998, 2001, 2004) and John Hewson (1993).

A quote that resonates down the years to Australia in 2019

"What is courage? We know it by instinct. We see it. We feel it.
Courage is a firefighter standing before the gates of hell unflinching, unyielding with eyes of steel saying, “Here I stand, I can do no other. 
Courage is neighbour saving neighbour. 
Courage is stranger saving stranger."
[Then Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, National Day of Mourning speech, February 2009]

Australian political leaders and voter perception at the end of 2019

On 8 December 2019 The Australian published its final Newspoll survey for the year.

This YouGov poll of voter intentions/attitude is now an online survey of 1,519 respondents.

It is interesting to note that although both leaders' net satisfaction ratings are in negative territory (Anthony Albanese -1 and Scott Morrison -3) it is Scott Morrison who has been trailing since 10 November 2019.

One has to wonder if the prime minister's underwhelming performance during this unprecedented bushfire season has begun to change voter perceptions.

The Australian, 9 December 2019, p.4:

While Mr Morrison was regarded as being a stronger and more decisive leader than Mr ­Albanese, voters believed he was also more arrogant....

On this measure, 58 per cent of people described the Prime Minister as arrogant compared with 40 per cent assigning this attribute to Mr Albanese.

Both leaders were regarded as being more or less equally trustworthy, which reverses the trend between Mr Morrison and Mr Shorten where the gap was seven points in favour of Mr Morrison. Mr Albanese also levelled the playing field on likeability, with Mr Morrison previously holding a large margin over Mr Shorten.

On the measures of being in touch with voters and understanding the major issues, there was little daylight between the leaders.

But Mr Albanese was regarded as being more caring for people, while Mr Morrison was regarded as being more experienced.....

Are koalas on NSW North Coast now facing local extinction?

SBS News, 9 December 2019:

Paul the koala in the ICU recovering from burns at The Port Macquarie Koala Hospital on November 29, 2019. Source: Getty

NSW parliament's upper house will hold an urgent hearing on the extent of damage to the koala population from the recent bushfires, with 2,000 feared dead. 

An inquiry into koala populations and habitat in NSW is expected to hear evidence that more than 2,000 of the native Australian marsupial may have died on the state's north coast in recent bushfires. 

The state parliament's upper house inquiry will hold an urgent hearing on Monday to discuss the extent of damage to the koala population from bushfires. 

Thousands of hectares of koala habitat across northern NSW and southeast Queensland have been destroyed in the recent bushfires. 

Koalas are listed as vulnerable in Queensland, NSW and the ACT, largely a result of habitat clearing......

A dehydrated and injured Koala receives treatment at the Port Macquarie Koala Hospital. Source Getty

North East Forest Alliance president and ecologist Dailan Pugh is expected to give evidence on Monday that more than 2,000 koalas may have died and up to one-third of koala habitat on the state's north coast may have been lost in the fires..... 

Port Macquarie Koala Hospital's clinical director Cheyne Flanagan and Indigenous fire practitioners are also due to give evidence, as well as representatives of the National Parks and Wildlife Service and the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment....

The Guardian, 9 December 2019:

Photograph: Supplied by Jimboomba Police

Mark Graham, an ecologist with the Nature Conservation Council, told the inquiry that koalas in most instances “really have no capacity to move fast enough to get away” from fast-moving crown fires that spread from treetop to treetop.

“The fires have burned so hot and so fast that there has been significant mortality of animals in the trees, but there is such a big area now that is still on fire and still burning that we will probably never find the bodies,” Graham said.

The crown fires which have torn through broad expanses of NSW north coast forest, a known biodiversity hotspot, were unprecedented.

“We’ve lost such a massive swath of known koala habitat that I think we can say without any doubt there will be ongoing declines in koala populations from this point forward,” Graham said.

Science for Wildlife executive director Dr Kellie Leigh told the hearing there was no resources or planning in place to save koala populations in the Blue Mountains from fires currently threatening the region.

“We’re getting a lot of lessons out of this and it’s just showing how unprepared we are,” Dr Leigh said on Monday.

“There’s no procedures or protocols in place ... even wildlife carers don’t have protocols for when they can go in after fire.”

The Blue Mountains fires have already hit two-thirds of the northern population the organisation has studied and one-third of the Kanangra-Boyd National Park population, Dr Leigh said......

Echo NetDaily, 9 December 2019:

Prior to the current bushfires koalas were at risk of major population decline through habitat loss and logging but with significant areas of their habitat being burnt out by bushfire many of the previously stable colonies are on the verge of collapse. Recognising the disastrous impact that the fires are having on koala populations a call is being put out to the NSW government to stop logging of koala habitat.

A number of groups appearing before today’s NSW Legislative Council inquiry into koala populations and habitat in New South Wales have requested the committee actively call on the NSW government to put in place a moratorium on logging koala habitat across public and private lands as an emergency response to the loss of thousands of koalas and their habitat due to wildfires....

Cartoons of the Week

David Rowe

David Rowe

More news about one NSW Northern Rivers fireground; "people came in droves" to defend the rainforest

Nightcap National Park in August 2012. Image: Kris Excell, Flickr 

Watch ABC TV "7.30", Community Defenders help fight rainforest bushfires here (5 mins. 17 seconds).

When more than 40 bushfires raged across New South Wales last month, one community gave fire fighters some welcome support.

It happened in and around Mt. Nardi, Nightcap National Park and Nimbin in the Northern Rivers region.

The local volunteer Community Defenders worked "their guts out" according to a NSW Rural Fire Service (NSWRFS) crew leader. 

"And I'm so proud of them. Without the volunteers we would not have contained this fire."

Hearing that the World Heritage-listed Gondwana rainforest was under threat people from miles away "came in droves" to help the defenders protect that forest.

It is believed that at least one hundred people were working with the Rural Fire Service crews on duty during November.

ABC News, 9 December 2019. Image: Felix Schafer-Gardiner

While the Rural Fire Service volunteers fought the fire on the frontline, the Community Defenders did the work behind the scenes. 


In the past, the fire service would have tried to do both.

"The communities sought good and strategic advice from us and they worked with us", [NSWFRS] Captain Mantscheff said.

"Huge control lines were being consolidated and constructed.

"Their marvellous feats of endurance to drive them and construct six-lane highways that would make it very difficult for the fire to get across.

"It made our firefighting job so much safer.

"It bought time and no one lost a home there because of the work that was being done.

"Man oh man, they stepped up in such a way that we, all of us in uniform, were just completely blown away and continue to be because they're still out there now."

One NSWRFS volunteer tweeted about everyone working on that fireground in November; "It was an absolute honour and privilege to work alongside all those people".

Fire did eat into the national park, but it did not destroy it all.

In December fire ignited in the Mt Nardi area again and as of 10 December 2019 it was listed as being under control. The local community continues to help.

It's hard to decide if Australian PM Scott Morrison is tone deaf or coldly callous

via Richard Chirgwin, 8 December 2019

via Daily Mail (UK), 21 November 2019

Bushfires that are unstoppable and relentlessly merge into mega fires. In NSW alone over 2 million hectares burnt out to date and 724 homes lost (276 more fire damaged) along with more than a thousand out buildings now just ashes.  Six people confirmed dead as we enter the second week of the fourth month of major bushfire activity in the state and hazardous air quality has seen a spike in hospital presentations for respiratory problems.

Yet this is Scott Morrison's attitude as captured by The New York Times (online), 6 December 2019:

Australia Burns Again, and Now Its Biggest City Is Choking.....

In Australia, however — where the air in Sydney was ranked among the worst in the world last month — Prime Minister Scott Morrison has resisted.

“The response has been to double down on denialism,” said David Schlosberg, director of the Sydney Environment Institute at the University of Sydney.....

Instead of addressing the public’s concerns, Mr. Morrison has suggested that some forms of protest should be outlawed, while refusing to meet with retired firefighters who have warned for months that more resources are desperately needed to battle the blazes.

On Friday, Mr. Morrison merely acknowledged that the haze in Sydney “has been very distressing to people.” He recommended downloading an app that tracks the fires.

Asked about a new report questioning Australia’s stewardship of the Great Barrier Reef, which is being killed by climate change, he repeated a false assertion that Australia’s carbon emissions are declining (scientists have shown that they are still rising).

Some critics are starting to wonder how long the government’s position can last......