COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People Part 5

 

 

The COVID dead are not published over Easter as Australia enjoys a four day break, so most of the data in this post doesn't go beyond 6 - 7 April 2023. 

Between 31 March and 6 April 2023 there were 9,876 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections recorded in New South Wales.

A total of 952 COVID-19 cases had been hospitalised with 20 in intensive care unit. Note: Between 27 March and 2 April 2023 NSW Health records show 46.6% of those admitted with COVID-19 infections had received 4 or more vaccination doses. As of 1 April XBB and its sub-lineages were the dominant variant group in community cases. This includes XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.9.

Another 36 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection in the 7 days up to 6 April 2023. NOTE: There is no published data on gender, age or area health service published for this group to date. However, given past NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report data it is like between 1-3 people died in the Northern River region and that they were in the oldest age groupings.

Of those people newly infected during this 7 day period, est. 220 lived in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

NOTE: Given that NSW Health in its 4-week tables only publishes local government area infection statistics for people who tested positive by way of a PCR test and in the Northern Rivers region around half the people being tested rely on the Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) to confirm COVID-19 infection, the following numbers for the 7 local government areas in NE NSW are significant underestimates of total positive tests.

Northern NSW COVID-19 Infection in 4 weeks up to 7 April 2023:

Tweed Shire — 142 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490; 

Byron Shire — 31 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,

Ballina Shire — 57 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478, 

Lismore City — 24 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480; 

Kyogle — 5 cases in postcode 2474;

Richmond Valley — 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Clarence Valley — 32 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465;

Note: These postcodes are based on Data NSW COVID-19 cases datasets

Covid Live calculated that between 1 January 2020 and 8 April 2023 a total of 3,952,896 men, women and children resident in New South Wales are known to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 or one of its variants and contracted COVID-19.

According to NSW Health total deaths due to COVID-19 in New South Wales since the beginning of the pandemic are est. 6,634 men, women and children. An estimated 31% of all these deaths occurred in the 12 months & 13 days between 24 March 2022 and 6 April 2023.

Actuaries Australia published the latest excess death rate for Australia and its states and territories which was calculated at the end of 2022. That excess death rate was 12% for Australia representing 20,000 excess deaths, and 12% for NSW in which state that represented 6,600 excess deaths.

Actuaries Australia, Actuaries Digital, 6 April 2023:

Overall summary of excess mortality in 2022

We estimate that there were just over 20,000 (12%) more deaths in Australia in 2022 than we would have expected if there had been no pandemic. Excess mortality is widely regarded as the best measure of the overall impact of a pandemic since it includes deaths both directly and indirectly due to the disease.

Of the 20,200 excess deaths in 2022, we estimate that:

• 10,300 deaths (51%) were from COVID-19;

• 2,900 deaths (15%) were COVID-19 related, meaning that COVID-19 contributed to the death; and

• 7,000 deaths (34%) had no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.

Deaths from COVID-19 are those where COVID-19 is given as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate. Deaths from COVID-19 were the third leading cause of death in Australia in 2022. The main reason why the numbers do not match those derived from surveillance reports is that the latter includes almost all cases[1] where people had COVID-19 when they died. Reported surveillance deaths will include deaths from COVID-19, deaths that were COVID-19 related and other deaths where the doctor/coroner has determined that COVID-19 was incidental and had no role in the death of the person.

For most of the underlying causes of death reported on by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the share of COVID-19 related deaths in 2022 is similar to the share of all non-COVID-19 deaths. The exceptions to this are dementia (which is over-represented in COVID-19 related deaths as frail dementia sufferers are also particularly vulnerable to COVID-19), respiratory disease (under-represented as COVID-19 is more likely to determined to be the underlying cause rather than a contributing cause) and coroner-referred deaths (under-represented, but the position could change as coroner findings are made).

It is unclear how close we are to reaching an endemic state when the impact of COVID-19 on mortality will become (more) predictable. Figure 2 shows that the latest wave of COVID-19 deaths continued in January 2023 (estimated at just over 1,000 deaths) but had ended by February 2023 (similar to the lowest month of 2022 at around 350 deaths).

The death certificates of about one-third of excess deaths in 2022 had no mention of COVID-19. These non-COVID-19 deaths represent excess mortality of 4%, which is extraordinarily high in itself, as can be seen in Figure 1. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths are particularly apparent in those aged over 75 for both genders and those aged under 65 for females only. We consider that the most likely reasons for these excess deaths are:

• The impact of COVID-19 on subsequent mortality risk, particularly heart disease, stroke, diabetes and dementia, which have all been identified in studies;

• Delays in emergency care, particularly at times of high prevalence of COVID-19 and/or influenza; and

• Delays in routine care, which refers to missed opportunities to diagnose or treat non-COVID-19 diseases and the likelihood of consequent higher mortality from those conditions in future. We understand that disrupted prescription of medications may be particularly likely to be a major risk factor for those with chronic heart disease….

Leading causes of death

The ABS reports on the top 20 leading causes of death by grouping deaths based on their International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code. Cancers are grouped based on the region of the body rather than included as a whole. In this section, we assess where COVID-19 sits in terms of leading causes of death in Australia and have followed the ABS classification system.

We have estimated deaths for the leading causes for 2022. To do this, we have:

• Taken doctor-certified deaths by cause to 31 December as shown in Table 1;

• Included an allowance for coroner-referred deaths (using the historical ratio of doctor-certified to coroner-referred deaths); and

• For the leading cancer causes, we have estimated deaths from all cancers and then assumed lung cancers and colon cancers make up 18% and 12% respectively of all cancer deaths. These proportions have been stable over the recent period examined.

Click on image to enlarge

With around 10,300 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022, this puts COVID-19 as the third leading cause of death….

Excess deaths to 31 December 2022 by State/Territory

Table 3 shows our estimate of excess deaths by state/territory, before and after deducting from COVID-19 and COVID-19 related deaths.

Click on image to enlarge

In 2022, all states/territories apart from NT had significant levels of excess mortality ranging from 10% to 16% of predicted. Generally, about half of this is due to deaths from COVID-19, with another 1-2% due to COVID-19 related deaths......

In 2022:

• Queensland had a large peak in non-COVID excess deaths in the middle of the year (at the time of flu and COVID-19 waves). NSW had a smaller peak at this time, but Victoria did not have a similar peak; and

• Barring the winter peaks for NSW and Queensland, Victoria’s non-COVID-19 excess has tended to be higher than the other two large states…...

Read the full article here.

Australia's housing access & affordability crisis not going to ease in the near future

The estimated usual resident population of the NSW Northern Rivers region at the 2021 census was 311,177 men, women and children and the largest age cohort appears to be people aged between 55-69 years of age. 

These regional residents are living in est.143,846 freestanding houses, semi-detached town houses, units, flats, cabins and caravans.

From I July 2021 to January 2023 there have been a total of 2,137 new building approvals granted across the region. This represents a fall of -31 housing approvals compared to those granted from 1 July 2020 to 30 June 21. Most of these approvals appear to have been for free standing houses.

As of 4 April 2023 there are est. 700 properties on the regional rental market, with approximately half priced between $800 to $3,500 a week. In 2021 in Northern Rivers Region an estimated half of all households had incomes below $2,000 per week and only 13.1% of all households earned an income of $3,000 or more per week.

“Housing markets are now at an inflection point. At a time of returning migration, they are contending with a perfect storm of high inflation and interest rates, slowing supply and record low vacancy rates.”

[State of the Nation’s Housing Report 2022–23, 3 April 2023]

Australian Government, National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC), 3 April 2023:

State of the Nation’s Housing Report 2022–23

Australia’s housing markets have been through an extraordinary period, impacted by COVID-19 related lockdowns, low population growth and record amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus.

NHFIC modelling in the State of the Nation’s Housing 2022-23 suggests:

• More than 1.8 million new households are expected to form across Australia from 2023 to 2033, taking total households to 12.6 million (up from 10.7 million in 2022). These households are expected to comprise around 1.7 million new occupied households and 116,000 vacant properties (e.g. holiday homes).

• The much earlier increase in interest rates (relative to previous Reserve Bank of Australia guidance) is adversely impacting supply. NHFIC expects around 148,500 new dwellings (net of demolitions) to be delivered in 2022-23, before net new construction falls to 127,500 in 2024-25. A recovery in supply is expected after 2025-26 on the back of changing macroeconomic conditions and stronger underlying demand.

• Slowing supply, together with increasing household formation is expected to lead to a supply household formation balance of around -106,300 dwellings (cumulative) over the 5 years to 2027 (and around -79,300 dwellings over the projection period 2023 to 2033).

• From 2023 to 2032, household formation is expected to be dominated by lone person households (563,600 additional households), followed by couples with children households (533,300 additional households). Within 5 years, it is expected lone person households will be the fastest growing household type across the country.

• NHFIC continues to expect a shortage of apartments and multi-density dwellings for rent over the medium-term. Net additions of apartments and medium-density dwellings such as town houses are projected to be around 57,000 a year (on average) over the 5 years to 2026-27, around 40% less than the levels seen in the late 2010s.

• The premium for space at home, with ongoing work from home arrangements following the pandemic has contributed to reducing average household size. This has been a factor in sharply falling vacancy rates. Analysis shows that decreasing household size since mid-2021 led to an additional 341,500 households forming, or around 103,000 in net terms since the beginning of COVID-19.

• NHFIC estimates that, conservatively, around 377,600 households are in housing need, comprising 331,000 households in rental stress and 46,500 households experiencing homelessness. Housing need across the country range from 208,200 households in highly acute rental stress to 577,400 households under less acute rental pressure.

Key findings:

• Strong demand for housing coupled with tight supply of both labour and materials, and bad weather has put significant pressure on the construction industry. Approximately 28,000 dwellings were delayed in 2022. NHFIC’s industry consultation suggests builders are making cost allowances of up to 40% for unexpected delays, up from a more normal 20%.

• In addition to higher interest rates, supply of new housing continues to be impeded by a range of factors including, the availability of serviced land, higher construction costs, ongoing community opposition to development and long lead times for delivering new supply.

• Rental growth and rental affordability varied significantly across and within greater city and regional areas, with rental growth in regional areas now falling after a period of record demand. Rental growth in major cities such as Sydney and Melbourne are outpacing rental growth in regional NSW and Vic, which suggests the premium of living in large cities close to employment centres may be returning.

• Rental affordability has varied greatly across the country during COVID-19. In Sydney, rents in several outer Local Government Areas (LGAs) increased more than 30% from early-2020 to January 2023 and more than 3 times that of some inner-city LGAs. Outcomes in Melbourne have been more subdued, with more than half of Melbourne’s LGAs experiencing rental increases of less than 10% since pre-pandemic. Southeast Qld has had the largest rental rises, with all 12 LGAs experiencing rental increases of 30% or more.

• Trends in the macroeconomy can affect the ability of first home buyers to enter the market. Analysis shows that since the 1990s in Sydney, deposit hurdle rates (i.e. deposit as a percentage of income) on average increased by around 8% during an interest rate tightening cycle (-10% so far this cycle), compared with 26% during easing cycles. The average deposit required as a percentage of annual income has nearly doubled over this period from 60% to 110%.

Download the report

State of the Nation's Housing Report 2022-23 (pdf 3.75 MB) https://www.nhfic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-03/state_of_the_nations_housing_report_2022-23.pdf

“In the detached market, in the 12 months to January 2023, average capital city price growth dropped to -4% after peaking at 23% in the last quarter of 2021.

Sydney and Melbourne were most impacted, with house prices falling around 15% and 11% respectively over the12 months to January 2023. House price growth was still relatively strong in Adelaide (6%) followed by Darwin (5%) and Perth (3%).

Detached house price growth in regional NSW, Vic, Qld, SA, WA and Tas outpaced growth in capital city areas of these states. The strongest regional price increase was in regional SA”

[State of the Nation’s Housing Report 2022–23, 3 April 2023]

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, 16 March 2023:

 

The share of households that rent has risen over the past few decades, mainly in the eastern states. This reflects a rise in the proportion of private renters as home ownership rates have declined. The share of households in public housing has also declined, as growth in public housing stock has not kept pace with growth in the total number of households. Rent assistance to private tenants has also become a more common way of providing housing assistance to lower income households……

The average and median incomes of renter households are generally lower than owner-occupiers across age groups.... However, the share of private renters who are in the top half of the income distribution has risen over time as the share of private renters in higher paid jobs, such as professional services, has increased. This shift has coincided with an increase in the average age of first home buyers and a decline in the home ownership rate among younger households…..

Renters, especially those on lower incomes, tend to spend a larger proportion of their incomes on basic living expenses and have less spare cash flow (i.e. income available to spend on discretionary consumption or save), relative to those who have a mortgage. Renters also tend to have lower savings buffers. In combination, these factors can make renters more vulnerable to increases in the cost of living and make it more difficult for these households to accumulate wealth over time, compared with owner-occupiers….

Nearly 90 per cent of all households in the lowest wealth quintile were renters in 2019/20. This in part reflects that renters tend to be younger than other types of households and so have had less opportunity to accumulate savings over time. However, renters also tend to have lower wealth compared with owner-occupier households even after controlling for age and income....

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that Rent CPI stood at 1.0% in April 2022 and had risen to 1.6% by May - then risen again in July to 2.0%, August 2.4%, September 2.9% & December 4.1%. 

The start of a new year saw the Rent CPI at 4.8% in January & February 2023. The next release of monthly CPI data occurs on 26 April 2023.

New Premier Chris Minns visits Lismore in the NSW Northern Rivers region

 

https://youtu.be/VjhckdT2Caw

 

BE THEIR HERO - Animals Australia

https://youtu.be/aKhl-FUpp8E

‘Be their Hero’ is designed to show Australians just how extraordinary this unique species is. That each and every one of these animals suffering in factory farms or slaughterhouses is a ‘Tottie’ – curious, intelligent, sensitive and loveable.

Tottie and Davo’s exploits (there's more to come!) are set to become beloved in Australia and will resonate with the hearts of those who are on the cusp of refusing to ‘buy into’ and support the suffering inflicted upon these beautiful animals.

We are only limited in our ability to create change by the number of kind hearts we can reach and inspire.

[Animals Australia, 4 April 2023]

Cartoons of the Week

 

Cathy Wilcox

Megan Herbert

Parliamentary joint committees make recommendations to Australian Government concerning covert powers for the federal Anti-Corruption Commission and government decision-making in relation to armed conflict

Parliamentary Joint Committee supports covert powers for federal Anti-Corruption Commission 

Medianet Press Release, 29 March 2023:

Committee supports covert powers for Anti-Corruption Commission

_____________________________________________

Parliament of Australia

_____________________________________________

The Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS) today presented its Advisory Report on Item 250 of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (Consequential and Transitional Provisions) Bill 2022.

The report considers Item 250 of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (Consequential and Transitional Provisions) Bill 2022, which was passed into law in December 2022.

Item 250 amended section 110A(1) of the Telecommunications (Interception and Access) Act 1979 (TIA Act) to allow the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) access to stored communications and telecommunications data.

The Committee made seven recommendations in relation to the reform of Australia’s electronic surveillance framework, parliamentary privilege and security of information.

The Committee noted that Item 250 gives a wide range of covert powers to the NACC and considered the effect of the use of these powers on parliamentary privilege. The Committee recommended the Government ensure the protection of parliamentary privilege in relation to the use of covert powers in its Reform of Australia’s Electronic Surveillance Framework. Further the Committee considered that the TIA Act should be expressly amended to ensure that the provisions of that Act do not abrogate parliamentary privilege.

The Committee also recommended that, given the sensitivity of information to be collected and stored by the NACC, it should be required to comply with the Essential Eight Maturity Model to Maturity Level Three as recommended by the Australian Cyber Security Centre. Finally, the Committee recommended that employees at the NACC hold a security clearance of at least Negative Vetting Level 1, with increased requirements up to Positive Vetting depending on their access to sensitive information.

Committee Chair Mr Peter Khalil MP said: ‘The Committee supports allowing what will be Australia’s premier anti-corruption agency the covert powers necessary to undertake its important work. The Committee has recommended some additional measures to ensure that the NACC can operate effectively while ensuring necessary protections for parliamentary privilege, and for sensitive information.”

Further information on the inquiry as well as a copy of the report can be obtained from the Committee’s website. 

ENDS

Parliamentary Joint Committee concluded there is a clear need to improve the transparency and accountability of government decision-making in relation to armed conflict 

Medianet Press Release, 31 March 2023:

'War Powers' Inquiry into International Armed Conflict Decision Making

______________________________________________

Parliament of Australia

______________________________________________

The Defence Subcommittee of the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade has completed its examination on how Australia makes decisions to send service personnel into international armed conflict.

Defence Subcommittee Chair, Mr Julian Hill MP, said “The power to declare war and send military personnel into conflict is arguably the most significant and serious institutional power, and the gravest decision a government can make.

“Through this inquiry, the Committee has carefully and seriously considered fundamental questions regarding decision-making in relation to international armed conflict and parliamentary oversight, both preceding and during the commitment of the Australian Defence Force.

“The Committee has concluded there is a clear need to improve the transparency and accountability of government decision-making in relation to armed conflict. Australia’s system of parliamentary democracy is likely to be kept healthy, effective, and well-adapted by making sensible changes that respect our well-established institutions and conventions.

“Accompanying recommended changes to the Cabinet Handbook and new Standing Resolutions of both Houses of Parliament, the Government has an historic chance to exercise leadership and establish the Joint Statutory Committee on Defence to enhance Australia’s national security while providing increased parliamentary scrutiny of Defence.

“In 1988, Prime Minister Bob Hawke created the Parliamentary Joint Committee on ASIO, rejecting the advice of the Hope Royal Commission not to enhance parliamentary oversight of the intelligence agencies. History has proved he was right to do so, and the Government is encouraged to emulate Prime Minister Hawke’s example and act to strengthen national security and enhance the accountability of Defence to the Parliament.

“The Committee is convinced that greater transparency and parliamentary consideration of the decision to commit forces to an armed conflict can and must occur, and commends this report, on this most serious of subjects, to the Government”.

The Committee’s recommendations are to:

• Reaffirm that decisions regarding armed conflict are fundamentally a prerogative of the Executive, while acknowledging the key role of Parliament in considering such decisions, and the value of improving the transparency and accountability of such decision-making in the pursuit of national interests.

• Amend the Cabinet Handbook to:

• Restore the primacy of the Governor-General under Section 68 of the Australian Constitution to give effect to decisions of government in relation to war or warlike operations, particularly in relation to conflicts that are not supported by resolution by the United Nations Security Council, or an invitation of a sovereign nation

• Require a written statement to be published and tabled in the Parliament setting out the objectives of major military operations, the orders made and legal basis

• Require Parliament to be recalled as soon as possible to be advised and facilitate a debate in Parliament at the earliest opportunity following a ministerial statement, based on the 2010 Gillard model, including a statement of compliance with international law and advice as to the legality of an operation

• Introduce Standing Resolutions of both Houses of Parliament to establish expectations of Executive Government in relation to accountability for decisions in relation to international armed conflict, including regular Statements and Updates from the Prime Minister and Minister for Defence.

• Establish via legislation a new Joint Statutory Defence Committee, modelled on the Parliamentary Joint Committee for Intelligence and Security, able to receive classified information to improve parliamentary scrutiny of Defence strategy, policy, capability development acquisition and sustainment, contingency planning, and major operations.

Thank you to the many stakeholders and submitters who contributed thoughtfully to the inquiry whose carefully formed and expert views are acknowledged with respect and drawn upon in this report.

Further information in relation to the inquiry is available from the JSCFADT’s website.

ENDS

Unemployment numbers in the NSW Northern Rivers region

 

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the national unemployment rate in February 2023 remained at 3.5% (est.559,200 people). 

NOTE: ABS Labor Force, Australia data for February 2023 was published on 16.03.23 & the next Labor Force, Australia covering March 2023 will be released on 13.04.23.

In New South Wales the unemployment rate held steady at 3.4% (est. 153,100 people) and seasonally adjusted stood at 3.2%. Broken down from original data ABS records there was an unemployment rate of 3.6% for males and 3.2% for females.

According to idcommunity:demograhic resources, monthly data published by the Department of Social Services (DSS) for February 2023 shows that there were 120,135 Jobseeker and Youth Allowance recipients in regional New South Wales. That figure represents 7.1% of the total regional workforce age population – a drop of 0.2% since February 2022.

By comparison there were 15,767Jobseeker and Youth Allowance recipients in the Northern Rivers region in February 2023. That figure represents 8.8% of all people of workforce age in the region – a drop of 0.5% since February 2022.

In terms of local government areas the combined Jobseeker and Youth Unemployment numbers are:

Tweed Shire – 4,135 people being 7.4% of the LGA workforce age population.

Clarence Valley – 3,210 people being 11.1% of the LGA workforce age population.

Lismore City – 2,736 people being 10.1% of the LGA workforce age population.

Byron Shire – 2,115 people being 9.3% of the LGA workforce age population.

Ballina Shire – 1,560 people being 6.0% of the LGA workforce age population.

Richmond Valley – 1,378 people being 10.3% of the LGA workforce age population.

Kyogle Shire – 663 people being 12.7% of the LGA workforce age population.

Dept. of Social Services monthly data by Statistical Area Level 2 shows that in February 2023 the two Northern Rivers LGAs with the highest levels of unemployment had this profile for major population centres:

• In Tweed Heads & Tweed Heads South there was a combined total of 1,420 people on an unemployment payment/allowance, with Murwillumbah & Murwillumbah Region had a combined total of 1,210 people. While Pottsville Region had 500 people on unemployment payment/allowance, Banora Point 490 people and Kingscliff-Fingal Head 450 people.

• Grafton City & Grafton Region has a combined total of 2,400 people on an unemployment payment/allowance, while Maclean-Yamba-Iluka had a total of 810 people.

Note: The Board of Reserve Bank of Australia expects the national unemployment rate to rise towards the end of 2023.