The north-east NSW coastal fringe started the week with reasonable land & sea temperatures and only 6 bush & grass fires at advice level

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 18 September 2023: 

Air-Surface Temperature 4pm Monday 18 September 2023
MAP: BOM

Between 6am to 4pm Monday 18 September 2023 temperatures along the coastal fringe of north-east NSW ranged from 5.5°C to 26.7°C as the day progressed.

Sea Surface Temperatures & Current Direction 

4pm Monday 18 September 2023

MAP: BOM

The East Australian Current was still bringing waters close to shore which were a comfortable 20-21°C at 4pm Monday 18 September 2023.

This may not last long.....

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Warmer than median October to December days and nights for almost all of Australia

Issued: 14 September 2023

For October to December, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

For October to December, most of Australia is at least 3 times likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times likely for most of western and central WA, and parts of central and south-eastern Australia. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

For October to December, minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia apart from a small area of Queensland's North Tropical Coast.

For October to December, broad areas of Australia are at least 2.5 times likely to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than four times likely for parts of central WA, southern Queensland, and north-east NSW. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of the October to December long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia, dropping to low to moderate for parts of north-western Australia.

NATIONAL REFERENDUM STATE OF PLAY 2023: Advance Australia

 

The year 2020 began with media articles discussing the possibility of the recognition of First Nations people in the Australian Constitution and also a Voice to Parliament.

This was not new. People had been reading of these issues at their breakfast tables since at least the 1990s, many without realising that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples had been seeking long-overdue recognition, a protection of their rights and equal treatment since the 1920s. All of which had culminated in the 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart - after which the Coalition Turnbull and Morrison federal governments repeatedly shoved the Statement into a corner of the room whenever questions were asked.

Although Advance Australia had registered as an official significant third party in February 2019 (with $2.4 million in seedmoney supplied by 16 donors).

The legal entity which underpins this organisation is Advance Aus Ltd formerly known as Freedom Aus Limited, registered in Queensland on 31 August 2018 and then moved to South Australia before landing in the ACT and now situated at Level 4, 15 Moore Street Canberra, CITY ACT 2601 since July 2023.

The original six directors have come and gone and now there are three:

LAURA JEAN BRADLEY; 

MATTHEW PATRICK FRANCIS SHEAHAN - self-titled 'activist'; and

VICKI ANN DUNNE - former ACT Liberal Party MLA for Ginninderra electorate.

Thus registered corporation never has reported annual income of less than $1.3 to $2.8 million, according to the AEC Transparency Register.

Advance Australia been running political issue 'talking points' and campaign advertising ever since, it wasn’t until 2021-22 when its xenophobia and prejudice began to be writ large that media coverage had increased as had awareness.

By the time 2022 came around with a firming of the political objective to hold a national referendum, it was obvious that Advance Australia had not just political backing from right-wing politicians and committed culture warriors like Tony Abbott, it had a number of financial backers with deep pockets. Pockets which appear to be financing its referendum “No” campaign against the inclusion of an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament in the Australian Constitution.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 15 September 2023, p.26:

One of the calculated myths in the campaign against the Indigenous Voice is the argument that the referendum is a contest between elite insiders and ordinary folk because the case for change is powered by the wealthy and the well-connected.

The No campaign thrives on the "outsider" status it claims for itself as a movement that speaks for those without money or power, leading a cause that challenges the establishment by mobilising voters who lack the advantages enjoyed by others.

But the No campaign has an establishment of its own, full of people with money, influence and connections as well as harbourside views. It turns out that a transport company boss and a building materials millionaire are among the donors behind Advance Australia, although their names do not show up in the disclosures at the Australian Electoral Commission.

This is important when so little is known about the peak group behind the No campaign, Advance Australia, and the activist group it has set up, Fair Australia. These groups are secretive by design, but key facts about the tactics adopted by some of their members emerged in this masthead this week about the way they coached volunteers to use fear and doubt rather than facts to defeat the Voice at the October 14 referendum. It is not suggested that any of the donors identified below endorsed the controversial tactics revealed in the news reports.

Advance is a force to be watched in federal politics. If it succeeds in halting the Voice, it could unleash its conservative activism on other fronts even when critics accuse it of peddling falsehoods…..

Some Advance donors are known because they are named in the group's annual returns to the Australian Electoral Commission, or they lodge their own returns about their donations, and some have declared their support publicly, but that is not the case with all. Some of the payments are made through private companies, so we searched company records to find out who was behind the donations. This kind of disclosure is not readily available to the ordinary voter.

So who are its donors? The transport company chief is Brett Ralph, founder and managing director of Jet Couriers and a director of the Melbourne Storm football club as well as other sporting clubs. His company, JMR Management Consultancy Services, put $75,000 into Advance last financial year. He did not reply to an email about his donations.

The Sydney millionaire is Rodney O'Neil, a member of a family that made its money in building materials with companies like Australian Blue Metal and Hymix, which was run by his brother, Colin. Companies linked to Rodney O'Neil, with names like Nedigi and Sixmilebridge and based in Double Bay, contributed $85,000 to Advance last year. He did not respond to a request for comment.

Another donor is Sam Kennard, head of storage company Kennards, who has helped Advance over several years. His company, Siesta Holdings, gave $20,000 last year and $20,000 the year before. There was no response from Kennards about this donation.

These donors join some who have already been in the headlines for their help for Advance - such as former health company chief Marcus Blackmore, who donated $20,000 last year. Blackmore is a public supporter of the No campaign. One of the best-known donors to Advance is a former fund manager, Simon Fenwick, who has backed the conservative group for years. He and his wife, Elizabeth, donated $650,000 and $350,000 before the last election. The Fenwick family trust also donated $50,000 last year. Earlier this year, Fenwick promised to match donations worth up to $250,000 to Advance to help stop the Voice….. [my yellow highlighting]

Australian Electoral Commission List of Individuals & companies donating to Advance Australia in financial year 2021-22

• Marcus Blackmore (Liberal & National parties donor) multi-millionaire Executive Director of Blackmores Ltd - $20,000 to Advance Australia

• Brazil Farming Pty Ltd, principal multi-millionaire Franklyn Roger Brazil - $34,000 to Advance Australia

• Louis Denton, Chief Operating Officer Devcos International - $75,000 to Advance Australia

• Rayleen Guisti, Personal Assistant to Managing Director Garnaut Private Wealth - $37,500 to Advance Australia

• Gabrielle Hull - $20,000 to Advance Australia

• John Francis Hull (Liberal National Party of Qld donor) Retired UK director - $45,000 Advance to Australia

• J M R Management Consultancy Services Pty Ltd, Managing Director Brett Ralph - $75,000 to Advance Australia

• Nedigi Pty Limited (inaugural Advance Australia Donor 2018-19), Son of property magnate Denis O'Neil, Director Rodney O’Neil - $25,000 to Advance Australia

• Sixmilebridge Pty Limited (inaugural Advance Australia Donor 2018-19), (Liberal Party, Liberal National Party Qld, National Party donor) Company Secretary Rodney O’Neil - $45,000 to Advance Australia

• Telowar Pty Ltd (inaugural Advance Australia Donor 2018-19), Director Rodney O’Neil - $25,000 to Advance Australia

• Andrew Abercrombie (Liberal Party donor) millionaire president of the Buy Now Pay Later company Humm - $20,020 to Advance Australia

• Willimbury Pty Limited,(inaugural Advance Australia Donor 2018-19), Director Colin O’Neil - $25,000 to Advance Australia

• Siesta Holdings Australia Pty Ltd (Liberal Democratic Party donor) Director Sam Kennard - $30,000 to Advance Australia

• Karl Morris (Liberal Party Donor) CEO Ord Minnett Ltd & Chair Bravehearts Foundation Fund - $10,000 to Advance Australia

• Silver River Investment Holdings Pty Ltd (Liberal Party, Liberal Democratic Party & Drew Pavlou Democratic Alliance donor) Director Simon Fenwick, Institute of Public Affairs board member  - $50,000 to Advance Australia

• Ian Tristram Chairman Trisco Foods Pty Ltd - $25,000 Advance Australia

Environmental Activism State of Play 2023

Knitting Nannas look like this and they knit.

Northern Rivers Knitting Nannas
The Echo, 1 July 2022
IMAGE: Tree Faerie

They also year in and year out peacefully protest on behalf of their concerned and often very worried communities AND they infrequently get arrested and go to court. 

On 4 July 2023 Cristine Degan, 74, was arrested after she and Susan Doyle, 76, of Valla, locked on to a harvester in Boambee State Forest, on NSW Mid-North Coast. They were both arrested and fined.

In New South Wales the fines for peaceful protest under the the Crimes Act 1900, the Summary Offences Act 1984, the Mining Act 1992, the Forestry Act 2012 & Roads and Crimes Legislation Amendment Act 2022 are becoming extremely large.

In that state people can now be fined up to $22,000 and/or gaoled for a maximum of two years for protesting illegally on public roads, rail lines, tunnels, bridges and industrial estates.

In other states the laws have grown harsher as well. 

Since 2022 in Tasmania “community member protesting the destruction of old growth forests on a forestry site could face a penalty of over $13,000 or 2 years in prison; and An organisation supporting members of the community to protest could be fined over $45,000”. “While in Victoria Anti-logging protestors who “hinder, obstruct or interfere with timber-harvesting operations” can face up to 12 months in prison and/or a $21,000 fine. PVC and metal pipes which are often used in protest activities are now prohibited in working sites, with additional powers provided to police to search suspect individuals who are “reasonably suspicious”. [UNSW Human Rights Institute, 2022]

Now we have the next generation of protests and protestors and one of the suspected offences confronting 37 year-old Joana Partyka - conspiracy to commit indictable offence - has an attached penalty of imprisonment from 14 years to life in West Australia…..

TheSaturday Paper, 16 September 2023:

When the knock came, I was brushing my teeth. For a moment I considered ignoring it: I wasn’t expecting anyone. Eventually I opened the door and standing there were the police. There were six of them, all armed, members of the Western Australia Police Force’s counterterrorism unit, the State Security Investigation Group. In that moment, I felt dazed, almost sun-drunk. My apartment seemed immediately smaller. As I tried to process what was happening, I knew one thing: they were there for me.

A month before the raid in February, I had spray-painted the Woodside Energy logo onto the plexiglass covering Frederick McCubbin’s Down on his luck at the Art Gallery of Western Australia, thrusting into the headlines Woodside’s grotesque mega-project on the Burrup Peninsula. In the intervening period I’d been charged with criminal damage and pleaded guilty. I’d been convicted and issued with a fine and costs, which I paid.

It was after that case had been resolved that these officers arrived at my small apartment. They handed me a search warrant that outlined two suspected offences: criminal damage and conspiracy to commit an indictable offence.

As the first Disrupt Burrup Hub campaigner to receive that unexpected knock at the door, I was unprepared, uneasy and above all unclear why the police were there. I had no greater clarity when they left with my phone and laptop an hour later.

Now, six months later, I have not been charged in relation to the suspected offences outlined on the warrant. Instead, I have been charged with two counts of failing to obey a data access order – for refusing to provide police with the passwords to my devices.

Later this week, I will defend myself in the first criminal trial to come out of the Disrupt Burrup Hub campaign. It is believed to be the first time a peaceful climate activist has faced trial on this charge in Western Australia – a symbol of just how extraordinary a time it is to be a climate activist in this state…..

Read the full article at:

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/16814/2NDiBXBK 

Say Yes23. If not now then when?

https://youtu.be/aFNu5QeVtcM

 

Loss of soil moisture and drought conditions continue to grow across New South Wales in September 2023

 

NSW DPI COMBINED DROUGHT INDICATOR MAPPING

Click on image to enlarge

Data current to 10/9/2023 (AEST)

CDI = Combined Drought Indicator. RI = Rainfall Index. SWI = Soil Water Index. PGI = Pasture Growth Index. DDI = Drought Direction Index

NOTE: The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of seasonal conditions and drought status. Other factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI.

From Hastings/Port Macquarie up to the NSW-Qld border 78.7% of the North Coast is Drought Affected and 9.2% In Drought. Only 12.1% is currently considered unaffected by drought.

Water NSW: regional water storage levels as of 14 September 2023

Updates can be found at https://www.waternsw.com.au/nsw-dams/nsw-storage-levels/regional-nsw-dam-levels

According to the NSW Department of Primary Industries, end August 2023:

Drought conditions are continuing to expand and intensify on the North Coast, Northern Tablelands, Hunter and the South East Local Land Services (LLS) Regions of NSW. These conditions are consistent with the onset of a major drought in these regions, and the drought indicators show that the area of this event is growing across the Northern Tablelands and North-West. Producers are continuing to monitor on-ground conditions and climate forecasts closely, while implementing actions in line with their individual drought strategies.

Seasonal Climate Outlook

Seasonal climate forecasts indicate increased likelihood of warmer than average daytime and overnight temperatures for most of NSW for the September to November period.

Rainfall has an increased likelihood of being below average to well below average for most of NSW for the next three months.

The ENSO Outlook status remains at El Niño ALERT. When El Niño ALERT criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive

PROPOSED GREAT KOALA NATIONAL PARK - STATE OF PLAY SEPTEMBER 2023: and now for a some good news

 

Map of the proposed Great Koala National Park (white outline). Red polygons show planned logging over the next 12 months. White polygons are 'koala hubs’ - the most important sites of koala habitat in NSW [Nature Conservation Council (NSW), 2023] Click on image to enlarge

Nature Conservation Council (NSW)

Media Release, 12 September 2023

Critical Koala Habitat protected from logging: NCC welcomes moratorium of logging

The Nature Conservation Council of New South Wales (NCC), the state’s leading environmental advocacy organisation, today welcomes the announcement by Ministers Sharpe and Moriarty that critical koala habitat in the future Great Koala National Park will be granted immediate protection from logging.

“This is a historic step forward by the Minns Government. “From today, 8400 hectares of the most important koala habitat in the world will be protected from logging,” said Nature Conservation Council acting CEO Dr Brad Smith.

The NSW Government today announced the process to establish the Great Koala National Park, as well as a halt to timber harvesting operations in the 106 koala hubs within the area being assessed for the park.

As the NSW government notes “The 106 koala hubs cover more than 8,400 hectares of state forest. Koala hubs are areas where there is strong evidence of multi-generational, high-density populations of the iconic animal. Koala hubs cover approximately 5% of the Great Koala National Park assessment area, but contain 42% of recorded koala sightings in state forests in the assessment area since 2000.

The move comes after analysis by the Nature Conservation Council released in June found that 17.7% of state forest that constitutes the Great Koala National Park proposal was to be targeted for logging over the next 12 months – a 300% increase on the previous two years.

Critically, the analysis found that logging was planned in areas the NSW government has identified as the most important areas of koala habitat in NSW (OEH Koala Hubs) including Wild Cattle Creek, Clouds Creek, Pine Creek and Boambee State Forests.

"This is a big win for the environment movement, koalas and the forests of the mid north coast” Dr Brad Smith, NCC Acting CEO said.

“What we’ve seen today is Ministers Sharpe and Moriarity recognise and respond to the community who want to protect their local forests, koalas and First Nations heritage from the devastating impact of logging.”

“This decision is a win for the people of NSW, who rallied, protested and demanded better - in some cases tying themselves to the giant trees that will now remain standing.” 

“This decision is also a recognition that logging has a devastating impact on koalas and biodiversity. We applaud them for ensuring that the most important areas of koala habitat in NSW be protected.”

“Protecting the most precious 5% of the Great Koala National Park area gives these koala populations a fighting chance.

“Of course we’re also concerned about the remaining 95% of the proposed park area, and we look forward to working through that assessment to ensure it’s also protected from logging as soon as possible.

“We also welcome the confirmation that 8400 hectares constitutes 5% of the park, meaning the Minns Government is delivering on their election promise by assessing all 175 000 hectares of forest that constitutes the Great Koala National Park proposal.”

Statement ends

Australian National Referendum Question Number 45 since 1901 - State of Play 2023: this "No" case cold calling is a low act, a mongrel act - as the grown men of my childhood would have said

 

The Sydney Morning Herald, 12 September 2023, p.1:

The campaign to sink the Voice has instructed volunteers to use fear and doubt rather than facts to trump arguments used by the Yes camp.

In an online training session, the national campaigning chief for leading No activist group Advance, Chris Inglis, detailed the anti-Voice movement's core strategy of playing on voters' emotions.

Inglis instructed volunteers not to identify themselves upfront as No campaigners as they make hundreds of thousands of calls to persuadable voters, but instead to raise reports of financial compensation to Indigenous Australians if the Voice referendum were to succeed.

"When reason and emotion collide, emotion always wins. Always wins," he said as he displayed the same quote from US psychology professor Drew Westen, author of The Political Brain.

The No case is leading in several national polls ahead of the October 14 referendum. The latest RPM poll published yesterday showed support for the Indigenous Voice slumping to 43 per cent, with voter sentiment swinging against the constitution amendment in every state except Tasmania.

Inglis explained at the meeting on Monday, August 28, that the No camp's job was to make people suspicious of the Voice and its backers, while the Yes campaign continued to cite academic arguments and documents such as the Uluru Statement.

"This is the difference between facts and figures or the 'divisive Voice'," the long-time Liberal Party staffer said. "That feeling of uncertainty, of fear or doubt, that stays. That lasts for a very, very long time."

"I'm going to hammer in a lot of this emotive language."

"If you took everything that I had just said and turned it into one little thing, this is what you should write down and remember forever so you can tell your kids, tell your grandkids, tell your nephews and nieces - that people vote based on how they feel."

Advance runs the leading No campaign Fair Australia, which is aligned with the Coalition's Indigenous Australians spokeswoman, Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price.

Advance was started in 2018 as a conservative counterweight to GetUp and counts former prime minister Tony Abbott on its advisory board. It claims it has a 250,000-strong supporter base fighting "woke politicians and elitist activist groups ... taking Aussies for a ride with their radical agenda".

It is not suggested that either Price or Abbott endorses the coaching methods outlined in the training session run by Inglis.

Scripts used by Advance's 10,000-strong network of phone campaigners show how they are taught not to introduce themselves as calling from "the No campaign".

Instead, they are asked to sound as if they were concerned citizens associated with Fair Australia who "heard" the Voice will push for financial compensation for Aboriginal people. "It's been designed purely for soft voters. If we had put [No] in the opening line ... that in itself will scare people, right?" Inglis told volunteers.

"It's not from the 'No campaign'... Fair Australia's soft, it's calming."

The script states: "I've also heard that some of the people who helped design the Voice proposal are campaigning to abolish Australia Day and want to use the Voice to push for compensation and reparations through a treaty. All of these things raised a few questions in my mind and made me wonder if there was more to it all than meets the eye".

Inglis told supporters that phone canvassing - using a tool called CallHub employed by successful campaigns in Europe and the US - was integral to Advance's efforts.

If 250 people attend a phone calling session, Inglis said, they could reach 15,000 so-called "soft" voters yet to make a firm decision.

Inglis, a former ACT Liberal staffer, said in the briefing that he had worked on election campaigns for about 12 years.

His briefing outlined Advance's "three-wave plan" through Fair Australia to defeat the Voice.

The strategy was first deployed in autumn when No campaigners started raising awareness of the Voice as an issue of concern.

In the winter, the conservative activists began talking about the "Voice of division".

As referendum day looms, the Fair Australia campaign has begun discussing consequences of voting Yes and asking Australians to act by rejecting the proposal….

Read the full article online at:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-campaign-s-fear-doubt-strategy-revealed-20230910-p5e3fu.html