Is this going to be one of the shorter 'neutral' periods in that dance Australia's weather conditions do between El Niño and La Niña climate patterns - approximately 44 days before the pointer swung towards "La Niña Watch"

 

It appears that Australia has a 50-50 chance of entering a La Niña event in the second half of 2024.

La Niña typically means:

• Increased rainfall across much of Australia

• Cooler daytime temperatures (south of the tropics)

• Warmer overnight temperatures (in the north)

• Shift in temperature extremes

• Decreased frost risk

• Greater tropical cyclone numbers

• Earlier monsoon onset

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology: In eastern Australia, the average December-March rainfall during La Niña years is 20% higher than the long-term average, with eight of the ten wettest such periods occurring during La Niña years. This is particularly notable for the east coast, which tends to be less affected by La Niña during the winter months but can experience severe flooding during La Niña summers.

The record breaking NSW Northern Rivers floods of February-March 2022 occurred in a La Niña event - part of the 'triple dip' La Niña which occurred in 2020-2022.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Climate Driver Update: Climate drivers in the Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans and the Tropics

14 May 2024

SUMMARY

La Niña Watch—some signs of La Niña formation later in 2024

La Niña Watch

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. There are some early signs that a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña Watch. When La Niña Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time. There is about an equal chance of neutral ENSO conditions in the same outlook period.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a significant amount of sub-surface cooling in the central and eastern Pacific. Recent cloud and surface pressure patterns are ENSO-neutral.

The Bureau's modelling suggests that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. It is important to emphasise that early signs of La Niña are most relevant to the climate of the tropical Pacific, and that the long-range forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature provides better guidance for local climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent 2 weeks have seen the IOD index within neutral thresholds, and follow 7 weeks of the index being above the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C). The current SST observations suggest that recent development of a positive IOD may have stalled. If a positive IOD eventually develops, it would be earlier in the calendar year than is typical historically.

Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been the warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and April 2024, with April 2024 SSTs warmer than April 2023. The global pattern of warmth is affecting the typical historical global pattern of sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO and IOD variability. As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences of how ENSO or IOD may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral (as at 13 May). Forecasts indicate the index is mostly likely to remain neutral or become positive in the coming fortnight.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. Most models forecast indicate that the MJO will remain weak before re-strengthening over the eastern Indian Ocean or Maritime Continent region from mid- to late-May.

Centrepay remains a dysfunctional gamble for many welfare recipients in 2024

 

Unfortunately the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme did little to rid the Australian Public Service of all key individuals nurturing the rotting cores of the Dept. of Social Services, Services Australia, NDIS and Centrelink.

The Guardian, 13 May 2024:

Energy giant Origin wrongly received money from the welfare payments of former customers via the government-run Centrepay debit system, the Guardian can reveal.

Origin is now the third energy retailer known to have wrongly received money via Centrepay from vulnerable and low-income Australians after they had ceased being customers.

Centrepay gives approved businesses early access to welfare payments, prior to them hitting a welfare recipient’s bank account, a system designed to ensure individuals always have enough for essentials like rent and energy.

But a Guardian Australia investigation has identified deep and ongoing problems with the system. In one case, the Centrepay system allowed energy giant AGL to continue to take welfare money from more than 500 people who had ceased being AGL customers, resulting in overpayments over a period of years totalling about $700,000. The company says it has now paid that money back.

In other cases, Centrepay has helped to financially prop up a disgraced Christian rehabilitation centre practising gay conversion therapy and forced baptisms, and allowed rent-to-buy household appliance retailers to take excessive amounts from the welfare payments of customers in remote Indigenous communities.

Origin Energy is the biggest user of Centrepay of any energy retailer. The ASX-listed company had 32,894 residential customers paying for their energy using Centrepay last financial year, about 1.8% of its total customer base.

But Guardian Australia can reveal that Origin has also wrongly received money from the welfare payments of people who had ceased being its customers.

A spokesperson confirmed Origin had identified “issues relating to payments made through the Centrepay scheme”.

“We proactively reported these issues to Services Australia, have been attempting to contact impacted customers and are working with Services Australia to process refunds to customers,” the spokesperson said. “We have also strengthened our processes in relation to Centrepay payments.”

Both Services Australia and the energy company declined to say how many customers were affected or how much in welfare payments was wrongly received by Origin.

In response to a question on notice by a Greens senator, Penny Allman-Payne, the government confirmed that it was currently working to return Centrepay overpayments from three utilities companies and three “household services” companies.

Services Australia would not release details of which companies were affected......

Fifth Annual NSW Statewide Street Count of homeless people sleeping rough - results for the Northern Rivers region from Clarence Valley to the NSW-Qld border

TheEcho, 10 May 2024:

Byron Shire topped the state with a 16 per cent increase in rough sleepers, but the count also showed significant increases in numbers across Tweed, Ballina and Lismore shires.

While Sydney has remained stable with a one per cent increase it is the regional areas experiencing the biggest surge in homelessness in the past year. The 2024 street count found 2,037 people sleeping rough in 2024 compared to 1,623 people last year.

‘The sobering street count figures again paint a harrowing picture of homelessness and street sleeping across our state.,’ said Minister for Homelessness Rose Jackson.

‘While levels of street sleeping have stabilised in Sydney, we are still seeing an unprecedented increase of homelessness in many of our regional towns. We don’t just need data to tell us this – our regional communities are feeling this every day.’

The impact of climate disasters like the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires, the 2022 floods, the rising interest rates, cost of living pressures and a shortage of rental homes are just some of the factors that are continuing to drive homelessness and street sleeping.

It is important to note that these are just the people sleeping on the street and in their cars, they do not reflect the number of people who are homeless and for example are staying with family or sleeping on friend’s couches etc.

Lismore saw an increase of rough sleepers jump from 40 in 2023 to 64 in 2024. Tweed Valley went from 145 to 174 in 2024, Ballina went from 30 to 63 and Byron Shire went from 300 to 348.....

Read the full article at:

https://www.echo.net.au/2024/05/byron-shire-sees-biggest-increase-in-rough-sleepers/

According to NSW Government Communities & Justice, 2024 NSW Statewide Street Count: Technical Paper, published on 8 May 2024:

Street counts took place between 1 February and 1 March 2024, in more than 400 towns and suburbs in 76 local government areas (LGA) across NSW.

Half of the counts took place in the evening, scheduled between 10:00pm and 3:00am, with the remaining half occurring in the morning between 3:30am and 9am.

Over 300 local organisations either consulted in the planning phase or participated in the delivery of street counts. Partners included Community Housing Providers, local councils and Specialist Homelessness Services, as well Aboriginal organisations, Local Health Districts, local community groups, and Police.

In 2024 in the Northern Rivers region local government areas (LGAs) with the largest decreases in people sleeping rough were:

Richmond Valley - 3 rough sleepers as of 22.02.24 at 5 locations. Down from 19 persons in 2023.

Clarence Valley - 58 rough sleepers as of 20.02.24 at 6 locations. Down from 69 persons in 2023.

As for the other five LGAs:

Kyogle Shire - had no rough sleepers as of 23.02.24 and zero persons in 2023

Ballina Shire - 63 rough sleepers as of 28.02.24 at 6 locations. Up from 30 persons in 2023

Lismore City - 64 rough sleepers as of 23.02.24 at 5 locations. Up from 40 persons in 2023

Tweed Valley - 174 rough sleepers as of 27.02.25 at 15 locations. Up from 145 persons in 2023

Byron Shire - 348 rough sleepers as of 29.02.24 at 9 locations. Up from 300 persons in 2023.

Across all 400 NSW sites counted in February 2024 there were 2,037 people considered homeless and sleeping rough. This represents a 26 per cent (414 person) increase compared to 2023.

 

Two years into appointment to this portfolio, and unfortunately it seems that Australia's current Minister for the Environment and Water is getting the media attention she deserves in May 2024

The Australien Government has made an ad about our broken environment laws, and it's surprisingly honest and informative #auspol 🐨🇦🇺

✨ feat. Special Guest @punterspolitix pic.twitter.com/gmRZv8no7E

— theJuiceMedia (@thejuicemedia) May 5, 2024

 

Cartoons of the Week

David Pope

Mark Knight

David  Rowe

When science speaks and governments refuse to hear, the world enters a dark and perilous place

 

“I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the future.” [The Guardian, online, 8 May 2024]

When science speaks of what world governments and their peoples once thought of as an impossibility and, the vast majority of Australian politicians still refuse to admit the extent of the perilous situation situation we find ourselves in, then as a society we have entered a dark place.

The Guardian, 8 May 2024:

Climate crisis

World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target

Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds

‘Hopeless and broken’: why the world’s top climate scientists are in despair

Damian Carrington Environment editor

Wed 8 May 2024 19.00 AEST

Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) above preindustrial levels this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.

Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met.

Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.

Numerous experts said they had been left feeling hopeless, infuriated and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.

“I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the future.”

But many said the climate fight must continue, however high global temperature rose, because every fraction of a degree avoided would reduce human suffering.

Peter Cox, at the University of Exeter, UK, said: “Climate change will not suddenly become dangerous at 1.5C – it already is. And it will not be ‘game over’ if we pass 2C, which we might well do.”

The Guardian approached every contactable lead author or review editor of IPCC reports since 2018. Almost half replied, 380 of 843. The IPCC’s reports are the gold standard assessments of climate change, approved by all governments and produced by experts in physical and social sciences. The results show that many of the most knowledgeable people on the planet expect climate havoc to unfold in the coming decades.

The climate crisis is already causing profounddamage to lives and livelihoods across the world, with only 1.2C (2.16F) of global heating on average over the past four years. Jesse Keenan, at Tulane University in the US, said: “This is just the beginning: buckle up.”

Nathalie Hilmi, at the Monaco Scientific Centre, who expects a rise of 3C, agreed: “We cannot stay below 1.5C.”

The experts said massive preparations to protect people from the worst of the coming climate disasters were now critical. Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, said: “I am extremely worried about the costs in human lives.”

The 1.5C target was chosen to prevent the worst of the climate crisis and has been seen as an importantguiding star for international negotiations. Current climate policies mean the world is ontrack for about 2.7C, and the Guardian survey shows few IPCC experts expect the world to deliver the huge action required to reduce that.

Younger scientists were more pessimistic, with 52% of respondents under 50 expecting a rise of at least 3C, compared with 38% of those over 50. Female scientists were also more downbeat than male scientists, with 49% thinking global temperature would rise at least 3C, compared with 38%. There was little difference between scientists from different continents.

Dipak Dasgupta, at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, said: “If the world, unbelievably wealthy as it is, stands by and does little to address the plight of the poor, we will all lose eventually.”

The experts were clear on why the world is failing to tackle the climate crisis. A lack of political will was cited by almost three-quarters of the respondents, while 60% also blamed vested corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry.

Many also mentioned inequality and a failure of the rich world to help the poor, who suffer most from climate impacts. “I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering for the people of the global south,” said a South African scientist, who chose not to be named. “The world’s response to date is reprehensible – we live in an age of fools.”

About a quarter of the IPCC experts who responded thought global temperature rise would be kept to 2C or below but even they tempered their hopes.

“I am convinced that we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5C path and that we will implement them in the coming 20 years,” said Henry Neufeldt, at the UN’s Copenhagen Climate Centre. “But I fear that our actions might come too late and we cross one or severaltipping points.”

Lisa Schipper, at University of Bonn in Germany, said: “My only source of hope is the fact that, as an educator, I can see the next generation being so smart and understanding the politics.”

REVEALED IN 2024: Artist's reconstruction of head of mummified Egyptian woman held by Grafton High School for over a century

 

ABC News, 3 May 2024:

For more than a century, a mummified head inside a northern NSW school has been shrouded in mystery.

But part of that mystery has now been solved.

Since the Grafton High School head featured on ABC RN's Stuff the British Stole last year, forensic experts pieced together details of who this person was.

The information was then used to create a facial reconstruction sculpture, showing what this ancient human would have looked like in great detail.

"[Having] a disembodied remnant of a person, and seeing it come to life through this amazing process … it's been so exciting," Grafton High School history teacher Simon Robertson says.

A head in the library

The mummified head has been residing in the school's air-conditioned library, with only one clue to its backstory.

Throughout its reign, the British Empire stole a lot of stuff. This is a series about the not-so-polite history behind those objects.

Accompanying the head is a typed note from 1960, saying it was a "genuine example of Egyptian mummification" donated to the school in 1915 by Grafton doctor T.J. Henry.

The note explains that Dr Henry purchased it as a medical student in Edinburgh during the late 1800s — a time when Egyptian artefacts were very much in vogue in the UK.

However, none of this can be substantiated.

Another theory is that it was given to the school by Sir Grafton Elliot Smith, a local who became one of the world's foremost Egyptologists in the early 20th century.

Nothing else was known about the remains — the sex, age or if it was even actually Egyptian.

Over the years, the head has been used as an educational tool for ancient history students, but some at Grafton High School saw its presence as problematic.

Mr Robertson says the head "brought out very differing responses in people" from "we need to keep it and look after it" to "'it shouldn't be here … this is a person".

So the school attempted to repatriate the remains to Egypt, and offered them as a donation to a Sydney museum, but say they were rebuffed in both attempts.

The school hit a wall until Stuff the British Stole started investigating — and they got new leads from a CT scan, helping the school answer decades-old questions.

A new chapter

In June 2023, Janet Davey, a forensic Egyptologist from the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine (VIFM) and Department of Forensic Medicine (DFM) at Monash University, facilitated a CT scan of the head.

Analysis of the scan data by Dr Davey, other experts at VIFM and DFM, and the University of Chieti in Italy confirmed two key elements: That the skull belonged to a female and she had died aged between 50 and 60.

A head in a glass case being CT scanned, with a screen showing a scan of the head.

Meanwhile, flecks of gold leaf attached to the head indicated she lived during Egypt's Greco-Roman period.

"The Greco-Roman period encompasses Alexander the Great, in 332 BCE, past Cleopatra VII, into the Roman occupation and the early Christian period around 395 CE," Dr Davey says.

Read the full article at:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-03/grafton-head-reconstruction-stuff-the-british-stole/103790776