NSW Covid-19 current public health restrictions extended until Monday 28 February 2022

NSW Health, media release, 25 January 2022, excerpt:

The NSW Government will extend current restrictions for another month as the State continues to take a measured response to managing COVID-19 with a focus on a safe return to school and restarting non-urgent elective surgery as soon as possible.

Current settings will continue from Thursday, 27 January 2022 until Sunday, 28 February 2022, including:

• Hospitality venues, including pubs, clubs, restaurants and cafes, and nightclubs must follow the one person per two square metre rule indoors;

• Masks are required in all indoor settings (except residences). Masks are strongly encouraged where you cannot maintain a safe distance from others;

• QR code check-ins are compulsory at certain premises, including hospitality venues and retail shops;

• Singing and dancing is not permitted in hospitality venues, entertainment facilities, nightclubs, indoor music festivals and indoor major recreation facilities (except for weddings, performers, instructors and students)…..

As additional measures, people are encouraged to continue to work from home where possible and to reduce mingling when eating and drinking.

Minister for Health Brad Hazzard said there is plenty of availability and supply of boosters in the NSW Health vaccination clinics so those eligible for their booster shot should book as soon as possible.

“The gap between your second jab and your booster is now just three months, so don’t waste time – the sooner we all get our boosters the sooner we will overcome this Omicron wave,” Mr Hazzard said.

“The NSW community has put in an extraordinary effort to get the first two doses of the COVID vaccine, making us one of the most vaccinated populations worldwide. It’s now extremely important to back it in with your booster to lift your protection against the highly transmissible Omicron strain.”

People aged 18 years and older can receive their booster dose at three months after receiving their second dose of any of the COVID-19 vaccines.

Book your COVID-19 vaccine or your booster shot online

Find out more information at nsw.gov.au

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In the 24 hours to 8pm Monday 24 January 2022 across New South Wales there were:

• 18,512 new confirmed COVID-19 cases;

• 209,326 active COVID-19 cases;

• 2,943 of these cases are currently hospitalised, with 183 in intensive care units of whom 72 require ventilation;

• 29 people died with a COVID-19 diagnosis - 16 men and 13 women.

• 5 of the dead were aged in their 60s, 3 were in their 70s, 14 were in their 80s, 6 people were in their 90s and one was more than 100 years old.

[NSW Health, https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2021-nsw-health.aspx & https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/stay-safe/data-and-statistics]

To 8pm 24 January, 768 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed across the 7 local government areas in the Northern NSW Local Health District, including 354 positive PCR tests and 414 positive rapid antigen tests (RAT). 

Confirmed PCR tests by LGAs (LGA breakdown is not yet available for RAT results): 

Tweed Shire - 237 cases

Ballina Shire - 54 cases

Byron Shire - 24 cases

Clarence Valley - 17 cases

Lismore City - 10 cases

Richmond Valley - 10 cases

Kyogle Shire - 1 case

Tenterfield 1 case (Tenterfield is in a different Local Health District, but postcodes put cases in NNSWLHD). 

There are currently 49 COVID-19 positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW, with 5 of these in intensive care. [NNSWLHD, https://nnswlhd.health.nsw.gov.au/blog/category/media-releases/]

COVID-19 Pandemic January 2022: the saddest list in New South Wales

New South Wales COVID-19 related deaths 1 January – 23 January 2022

Saturday NEW YEAR’s DAY 1 Jan – 2 deaths, a man in his 70s and another in his 80s. 

One man was from South West Sydney the other from Western Sydney.

Sunday 2 Jan – 4 deaths, 2 men and 2 women.

Two people were aged in their 70s, one in their 80s, and one in their 90s. 

The 90 year old woman was from Western Sydney. However NSW Health failed to supply any detail on the other three who died in the 24 hr period up to 8pm on 2 January.

Monday 3 Jan – 2 deaths, a man in his 70s and another in his 90s. The man in his 70s came from the Newcastle area & the man in his 90s was from Western Sydney.

Tuesday 4 Jan – 8 deaths, 6 men and 2 women.

One person was in their 90s, two people were in their 80s, two people were in their 70s, two people were in their 60s, and one person was in their 50s. 

A man in his 70s resided in Ballina & a man in his 90s resided in Coffs Harbour, while a woman in her 80s died while in the Gosford area. There were no details given for the remaining five people.

Wednesday 5 Jan – 6 deaths, 5 men and one woman.

Aged in their 20s, 60s, 80s, and 90s. Two people were from the Lake Macquarie area, three were from Western Sydney, and one was from the ACT.

Thursday 6 Jan – 11 deaths, 6 men and 6 women.

Aged in their 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. 

Three people were from Northern NSW, three people were from South Eastern Sydney, one person was from Western Sydney, one person was from South Western Sydney, one person was from Northern Sydney, one person was from Port Stephens and one person was from the Lake Macquarie area.

Friday 7 Jan – 9 deaths, 4 women and 5 men. 

Aged in their 50s, 70s, and 90s.

Five people were from South Western Sydney, two were from South Eastern Sydney, one person was from Western Sydney and one person was from Newcastle.

Saturday 8 Jan – 16 deaths, 8 women and 8 men.

Aged in their 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s.

Seven people were from South Western Sydney, two people were from South Eastern Sydney, two people were from Western Sydney, two people were from Sydney's inner west, one person was from the Central Coast, one person was from the South Coast, and one person was from Northern Sydney.

Sunday 9 Jan – 18 deaths, 6 women, 11 men, and a child aged under five.

Of the six women and 11 men, one was aged in their 30s, three were aged in their 60s, four were aged in their 70s, seven were aged in their 80s and two were aged in their 90s.

Four people were from South Western Sydney, three people were from Western Sydney, two people were from the Hunter Region, two people were from Southern Sydney, two people were from Sydney’s Inner West, one person was from Northern Sydney, one person was from Sydney’s Inner City, one person was from Eastern Sydney, one person was from the Riverina Region, and one person was from Penrith.

Monday 10 Jan – 11 deaths, 6 women and 5 men.

Seven people were aged in their 80s, three people were aged in their 90s, and one person was aged in their 70s.

Four people were from South Western Sydney, one person was from Western Sydney, two people were from the Hunter Region, one person was from Eastern Sydney, one person was from Northern Sydney, one person was from Southern Sydney, and one was from the Central Coast.

Tuedsay 11 Jan – 21 deaths, 17 men and 4 women.

Seven of these deaths have been included following the conclusion of coronial investigations – four since 23 December 2021, one from September 2021 and two from October 2021. One person was aged in their 30s, one person was aged in their 40s, two people were aged in their 50s, four people were aged in their 60s, six people were aged in their 70s, four people were aged in their 80s, two people were aged in their 90s and one person was aged 100+.

Four people were from South Western Sydney, four people were from the Northern Beaches, four people were from South Eastern Sydney, one person was from Inner Sydney, two people were from Western Sydney, two people were from the Newcastle area, two people were from the Wollongong area and two people were from Northern Sydney.

Wednesday 12 Jan – 22 deaths, 13 men and 9 women.

One person was aged in their 60s, eight people were aged in their 70s, seven people were aged in their 80s, five people were aged in their 90s and one person was aged 100+.

Seven people were from South Western Sydney, seven people were from Northern Sydney, three people were from South Eastern Sydney, two people were from Inner Sydney, one person was from the Eastern Suburbs, one person was from the Central Coast and one person was from the Cessnock area.

Thursday 13 Jan – 29 deaths, 15 men and 14 women.

Three people were aged in their 40s, five people were aged in their 60s, five people were aged in their 70s, 11 people are in their 80s and five people are in their 90s.

Ten people were from South Western Sydney, five people were from Northern Sydney, five people were from South Eastern Sydney, three people were from Western Sydney, two people were from Sydney's Inner West, two people were from the Tweed Heads area, one person was from Wollongong and one person from the Lake Macquarie area.

Friday 14 Jan – 20 deaths, 11 men and 9 women.

One person was aged in their 20s, three people were aged in their 50s, one person was aged in their 60s, four people were in their 70s, nine people were in their 80s and two people were in their 90s.

Seven people were from south-western Sydney, four people were from western Sydney, three people were from south eastern Sydney, two people were from the Wollongong area, two people were from the Riverina, one person was from Sydney's Inner West and one person was from the Mid North Coast.

Saturday 15 Jan – 20 deaths, 12 men and 8 women.

Two people were aged in their 50s, six people were aged in their 70s, seven people were aged in their 80s, four people were in their 90s, and one person was 100+.

Six people were from South Western Sydney, four people were from Western Sydney, four people were from Sydney's inner west, two people were from South Eastern Sydney, one person was from the Northern Beaches, one person was from Northern Sydney, one person was from the Wollongong area, and one person was from the Tamworth area.

Sunday 16 Jan – 17 deaths, 12 men and 5 women.

One person was aged in their 60s, four people were aged in their 70s, nine people were aged in their 80s, and three people were in their 90s.

Seven people were from South Western Sydney, two people were from Western Sydney, two people were from South Eastern Sydney, one person was from Northern Sydney, one person was from South Sydney, one person was from the Newcastle area, one person was from the Central Coast, one person was from the Wagga Wagga area and one person was from the Tweed Heads area.

Monday 17 Jan – 36 deaths, 22 men and 14 women.

One person was aged in their 40s, two people were aged in their 50s, one person was aged in their 60s, 11 people were in their 70s, 12 people were in their 80s and nine people were in their 90s.

Nine people were from South Western Sydney, eight people were from Western Sydney, five people were from Sydney, three people were from the Northern Beaches, two people were from Northern Sydney, one person was from Coffs Harbour area, one person was from the Lake Macquarie area, one person was from the Newcastle area, one person was from the New England area, one person was from the Northern Rivers area, one person was from the Shellharbour area, one person was from the Bega Valley Shire area, one person was from the Southern Tablelands area, and one person was from the Taree area.

Tuesday 18 Jan – 32 deaths, 12 women and 20 men.

Three people were aged in their 40s, three people were aged in their 60s, eight people were in their 70s, 11 people were in their 80s and seven people were in their 90s.

11 people were from South Western Sydney, nine were from Sydney's South East, four were from Northern Sydney, two were from Western Sydney, two were from the Illawarra Shoalhaven region, one was from the Inner West, one was from the Northern Beaches, one was from the Central Coast and one was from the New England region.

Wednesday 19 Jan – 25 deaths, 16 men and 9 women.

One person was aged in their 30s, two people were aged in their 50s, five people were aged in their 60s, five people in their 70s, seven in their 80s, four in their 90s and one was over 100 years old.

Six people were from Western Sydney, five people were from South Eastern Sydney, three people were from Sydney's Inner West, two people were from the Central Coast, two people were from the Northern Beaches, two people were from the Lake Macquarie area, one person was from the Newcastle area, one person was from South Western Sydney, one person was from Queanbeyan, one person was from Albury and one person was from the Illawarra Shoalhaven region.

Thursday 20 Jan – 46 deaths, 33 men and 13 women.

Seven of these deaths have been included following the conclusion of coronial investigations – these seven deaths occurred from 29 December through to 13 January.

Of the 46 people who died; one person was aged in their 30s, one person was in their 40s, four people were in their 50s, eight people were in their 60s, 12 people were in their 70s, 13 people were in their 80s, and seven people were in their 90s.

20 people were from South Western Sydney, five were from Western Sydney, three were from Sydney's South, two were from Sydney's Eastern Suburbs, two were from Newcastle, two were from Northern Sydney, one was from Sydney's Northern Beaches, one was from Sydney's Inner West, one was from Port Macquarie, one was from Coffs Harbour, one was from Queanbeyan, one was from the Bega Valley area, one was from Singleton, one was from the Jervis Bay area, one was from Inner Sydney, one was from Wollongong, one was from the South Coast and one was from the Tweed Heads area.

Friday 21 Jan – 30 deaths, 18 men and 12 women.

Of the 30 people who died; one person was aged in their 50s, seven people were aged in their 70s, 15 people were aged in their 80s and seven people were aged in their 90s.

Ten people were from South Western Sydney, five people were from Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs, three people were from Sydney’s South, two people were from Sydney’s Inner West, two people were from Sydney’s North West, two people were from the Northern Rivers region, two people were from the Central Coast, one person was from Inner Sydney, one person was from Dubbo, one person was from Wollongong and one person was from Coffs Harbour.

Saturday 22 Jan – 34 deaths, 26 men and 8 women.

Of the 34 people who died; one person was aged in their 40s, five people were aged in their 50s, five people were aged in their 60s, nine people were aged in their 70s, 10 people were aged in their 80s and four people were aged in their 90s.

Eleven people were from South Western Sydney, four people were from Western Sydney, four people were from South Eastern Sydney, three people were from the Newcastle area, two people were from the Wollongong area, two people were from Sydney’s North West, two people were from the Northern Rivers region, one person was from Northern Sydney, one person was from Sydney’s Inner West, one person was from the Mid North Coast, one person was from the South Coast and one person was from the Riverina.

Sunday 23 Jan – 24 deaths, 16 men & 8 women.

Two people were aged in their 50s, one person was in their 60s, two people were in their 70s, 12 people were in their 80s and seven people were in their 90s.

Ten people were from South Western Sydney, three people were from Western Sydney, five people were from South Eastern Sydney, four people were from Sydney's Inner West and two people were from Northern NSW.

As of 8pm on Sunday 23 January 2022 the COVID-19 death count in New South Wales for this year stands at est. 443 individuals.

The total NSW death toll since the pandemic began on 25 January 2020 is est. 1,112 men, women and children. 

Australia-wide the total fatality count from the start of the pandemic to 23 January is now in excess of 3,103 people – 909 dying in 2020, 1,331 in 2021 and over 863 thus far in 2022.

If the pandemic continues on its present trajectory, 2022 will be a black armband year for the nation.

BACKGROUND

 As at 7:40pm on 24 January 2022 the global cumulative COVID-19 case count was est. 351,635,821 and the world-wide death toll since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 pandemic is est. 5,596,793 men women an children, according to COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). 

Twenty-two counties are now part of the pandemic spread which has entered its third year and shows no sign of abating due to a second major variant spreading across the globe in recent months -  "tsunami of cases is so huge and quick, that it is overwhelming health systems around the world".

Northern Rivers region fronting up for local frontline COVID-19 healthcare workers, paramedics & public hospital support staff

"We will buy meals from local businesses to be delivered to staff at Byron and Lismore Base hospitals. We won’t forget wards people, cleaners, those doing the testing, those on the phones and in admin. And we won’t forget night shift. This is also a way we can support local businesses. (Sadly, home-baked meals and treats are not possible due to food safety issues.) At Lismore, which is a very big hospital, we'll begin by taking meals into the Emergency Department, ICU and the COVID wards. We are organising donations of biscuits, teas, coffee, trail mix, chocolate, smoothies and juices to be put in tearooms (and regularly topped up) in these two hospitals....Depending on the amount raised and requests that come in from frontline workers, we will look for ways to offer other support to frontline workers outside their work environment." [Sarah Armstrong, Fundraising Organizer] 

This year five members of the Mullumbimby community decided to offer practical support during this particular COVID-19 surge to as many healthcare workers in the public hospital system, support staff who keep the system running and to paramedics who transport people to hospital. 

To that end a GoFundMe page was set up and in a matter of the first 16 days and 397 donations had raised $29,610 of a target of $50,000 to provide free hot and cold drinks, healthy snacks, biscuits and meals in the tearooms of Mullumbimby's local hospital Byron Central Hospital and Lismore Base Hospital the dedicated COVID-19 public hospital in the Northern NSW Local Health District. 

The Echo reports that organisers have provided their first delivery of meals to Byron Hospital, handing over dozens of pre-cooked dishes prepared by local vegan caterer, Yummify. Lismore Hospital will also receive their first shipment soon, with local business Mayfield Kitchen providing the meals.

Plans are underway to also allow paramedics on duty to access free coffee and snacks at selected cafes under this grassroots community scheme. 

Many local businesses and residents from across the region are throwing their weight behind this organised gesture of appreciation. 

If you would like to join in by making a small donation to "Front up for the frontline" this is the the link: www.bit.ly/3rrJo70. 

The organisers have stated "We’d love to do this for every hospital in our region but it’s a task too big for the six people working on this. We’re happy to offer guidance to anyone wanting to do the same for their local frontline workers."

 

COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia: land values, housing markets and potential for population movement

In the last two years when talking about the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 the focus has been on the number of people falling ill or dying, jobs lost, schools closed, difficulty in accessing vaccines or diagnostic services, the shortage of goods & services and economic impacts felt at a micro or macro level.

In commenting on change this pandemic has wrought, access to housing and household wealth sometimes rate a mention. Here is a quick sketch of two of the building blocks underpinning that aspects of our lives at state and national level.  

 The NSW Valuer-General determines land values across the state.

Over 40,000 property sales were analysed to determine land values as of 1 July 2020.

Overall land values increased across New South Wales by 3.6% from $1.70 trillion to $1.80 trillion in the 12 months leading up to 1 July.

However, not all sectors saw a growth in land values.

Although residential land values across the state saw an overall increase of 4.0% (coming back from a fall in 2019),  with industrial land seeing an overall value increase of 5.5% along with a total 4.8% rise in the combined value of rural land - it was another story for commercial land.

Commercial land values experienced an overall decrease of 6.6% which according to VG News: July 2021  was "largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic". Having received greater disruption than the residential land sector. 

House prices in most capital cities had been expected to experience a cyclical upswing in 2020 but the onset of the pandemic saw house prices contracting in all capital cities except Canberra in the June Quarter 2020. However the Reserve Bank's cash rate reductions, lower interest rates and government policy responses saw the market bounce back, according to KPMG Economic's paper The Impact of COVID-19 on Australia's Residential Property Market in 2021.

The expected Australian population reduction of over 1 million people by the end of this decade compared to pre-pandemic population forecasts is beginning to be felt across the economy and, along with an anticipated return to equilibrium and higher mortgage rates is predicted to temper the housing market for the next 2-3 years. 

Despite these factors affecting the housing market in 2022 and 2023, KPMG’s analysis predicts that house prices are expected to be between 4-12% higher and unit values are expected to be between 0-13% higher than would have been the case in the absence of COVID-19.

For renters in capital cities there appears to have been an overall but seemingly temporary fall in rent payable - between March and November 2020, capital city unit rents dropped by 5.4 per cent, while house rents increased by 1.1 per cent. 

This pattern is relatively consistent across all capitals though the difference is most significant in Melbourne and Sydney where unit rents fell 7.6 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively while house rents have seen a much smaller reduction of around 1 per cent. 

These March to November falls in rents did not seem to occur in regional areas in NT, Qld, NSW Vic, Tas, SA or WA in analysis supplied in AHURI Final Report No. 354: Pathways to regional housing recovery from COVID-19, April 2021.

By 20 January 2022 realestate.com.au was beating a commercial drum stating that the housing market had been booming since November 2021 - due in part to an alleged rise in investor confidence, the "influx of expats", limited housing stock and low interests rates, along with a demand for more space and a regional exodus from cities.  

Wooli NSW

Yamba NSW

Iluka NSW

Evans Head NSW

Here are four of the housing market profiles found in the 2021 Suburb Report Card interactive which can be found here. Click on images to enlarge.

POPULATION BACKGROUND

An Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) media release of September 2021 and linked data stated that there were 293,500 births and 162,500 deaths from 31 March 2020 to 31 March 2021.

The resulting natural increase was down 4 per cent from the previous year and continued the trend of a gradual decline over the past 5 years, driven mainly by decreasing births.

However, due to international border closures a natural increase of 131,000 people was the predominate population growth during that March to March period.

Again according to the ABS Regional internal migration estimates, provisional October 2021: 

In the March 2021 quarter there was a net loss of 11,800 people from Australia's greater capital cities through internal migration. This was the largest net loss on record since the series started in 2001, surpassing the previous record net loss set in the September 2020 quarter (-11,200).

The net loss was the result of 54,400 arrivals.... and 66,300 departures (up slightly from 66,000) to non-capital city areas.

* 

Tweets of the Week

 

Looking for body language experts out there. Just in case my interpretation of Dr Chant’s movement as “Don’t drag me into this shitshow of yours” is wrong… https://t.co/PcL2sEit4H

— Taswege (@tasmccullagh) January 18, 2022

 

#MarkMcGowan talking Covid-sense! pic.twitter.com/lcaG4DDfRW

— 💧 Johny Miller (@jmil400) January 18, 2022

 

Cartoons of the Week

Cathy Wilcox

Matt Golding

A brief look at projections and forecasts for six aspects of the Australian economy in 2021-22 & 2022-23

 

With only a seventeen-week window remaining in which Prime Minister Scott Morrison can first present an early Budget 2022-23 to the Australian Parliament, then dissolve said Parliament, before going on to call a federal general election and run a formal election campaign; sometime soon Coalition Government MPs and senators will have to begin addressing economic issues when out and about in their electorates. 

So perhaps it is time to start looking at projections and forecasts for 2022 made by government departments, financial institutions and industry - before local electioneering hype is raised to such a pitch that facts and considered opinion get lost in the political mêlée. 

Here are six aspects of economic activity which always get a mention in the NSW Northern Rivers region at some time in an election cycle.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

ABC News, 18 January 2022:

Consumer confidence slumps

The Omicron COVID-19 variant has hit consumer confidence, according to ANZ and Roy Morgan.

Their measure of consumer confidence fell 7.6 per cent last week to 97.9, the lowest level since October 2020, as Omicron surged across Australia and facilities came under immense strain.

That was lower than during last year's lockdowns when the Delta variant surged.

All the survey's subindices fell including current and future financial conditions.

Nearly one in five respondents expected to be worse off by this time next year.

ANZ head of Australian Economics, David Plank, said the index level of 97.9 was the weakest January result since 1992, when the Australian economy was experiencing rising unemployment.

"The result highlights the concerns about COVID have the potential to significantly impact the economy if they linger," he said.

ANZ said spending had continued to fall because of the spread of Omicron, with a drop of 27 per cent over the first half of January, compared to the first half of December.

Spending was also lower on eating out.

Omicron hit to economy

CBA credit and debit card data indicated that spending has dropped sharply on services over the past few weeks.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said the large number of COVID-19 cases is hurting the employment market, with an estimated 1 million people in isolation, and reduced spending on goods and services.

That means many businesses have been forced to close, or reduce capacity and opening hours.

He has slashed his growth forecast for the first quarter of 2022 from 2.3 per cent to just 1 per cent.

"The next few months are without a shred of doubt going to be difficult and testing for the economy," Mr Aird said.

"Our working assumption is that more policy support will be forthcoming, particularly stimulus that is targeted towards businesses most adversely impacted by the surge in COVID cases and isolation requirements."

Mr Aird said he expected the economy to snap back in the second quarter of 2022.

FINANCE

Australian Government General Government Sector Monthly Financial Statements November 2021, 24 December 2021:

KEY POINTS

• The Monthly Financial Statements for November 2021 report the budget position against the expected monthly profile for the 2021-22 financial year through to 30 November 2021, based on the 2021-22 Budget estimates published in May 2021.

• The 2021-22 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) was released on Thursday, 16 December 2021. Commencing with the December 2021 monthly financial statements, which will be released in January 2022, the budget position will be reported against the expected monthly profile based on the updated estimates outlined in the 2021-22 MYEFO.

• The November 2021 year to date results include the impact of the Australian Government’s response to COVID-19.

• The underlying cash balance for the 2021-22 financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $41.8 billion against the Budget profile deficit of $55.9 billion.

• The fiscal balance for the 2021-22 financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $36.0 billion against the Budget profile deficit of $55.2 billion.

Monthly results are generally volatile due to timing differences between revenue and receipts, and expenses and payments. Care needs to be taken when comparing monthly or cumulative data across years and to full-year estimates, as revenue and receipts and expenses and payments vary from month to month.

FISCAL OUTCOMES

Underlying Cash Balance

The underlying cash balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $41.8 billion, which is $14.1 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $55.9 billion.

• Receipts

Total receipts were $34.3 billion higher than the 2021-22 Budget profile.

• Payments

Total payments were $20.2 billion higher than the 2021-22 Budget profile.

Net Operating Balance

The net operating balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $35.5 billion, which is $17.8 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $53.4 billion. The difference results from higher than expected revenue, partially offset by higher than expected expenses.

Fiscal Balance

The fiscal balance for the financial year to 30 November 2021 was a deficit of $36.0 billion, which is $19.3 billion lower than the 2021-22 Budget profile deficit of $55.2 billion. The difference results from higher than expected revenue and lower than expected net capital investment, partially offset by higher expenses.

Assets and Liabilities

As at 30 November 2021:

• net worth is negative $743.5 billion;

• net debt is $607.3 billion; and

• net financial liabilities are $987.2 billion.

MINING SECTOR

Office of the Chief Economist, Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2021, excerpt:

Australia’s resource and energy exports are estimated to reach a record $379 billion in 2021–22, up from $310 billion in 2020–21. In 2022–23, export earnings are then forecast to decline back to $311 billion, as commodity prices settle lower.

The global recovery remains underway, sustained by the ongoing rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and continued fiscal and monetary support across major economies. However, new outbreaks (and variants) of the pandemic across many regions are inhibiting a full global recovery, as are supply chain blockages — including shortages of semi-conductor chips and of shipping containers in some locations.

China’s power shortages have been a dominant influence on global resource and energy commodity prices in recent months. As a major global metal refiner, the power shortages have seen Chinese (base and ferrous) metal output cut back. China’s property sector has slowed noticeably since our last report, cutting metal usage. However, the Chinese authorities now appear to be taking steps to stabilise the sector.

New policy developments are also impacting the global resources and energy sector. In October, China’s government instructed the nation’s coal miners to lift output and imposed a thermal coal price cap, following critical shortages. In November, the US Congress passed a US$1.2 trillion infrastructure program, which will have a stimulatory effect on economic growth domestically and have flow-on effects offshore.

A stronger outlook for base metals and coal is expected to more than offset the impact on export earnings of the downward adjustment we have made to our iron ore price forecasts. Lithium exports are expected to overtake zinc exports in 2022–23 as car makers race to capture the electric vehicle market.

With energy inventories lower than normal, the severity of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere winter will have a critical influence on energy markets in the short term. The La Niña weather pattern will likely impact on the demand and supply for coal and other energy products.

The risks to the record export earnings forecast for 2021–22 are skewed to the downside. They include a much faster than expected decline in coal prices. There is also potential for a further rise in global inflation and a risk of higher interest rates in response. New, vaccine-resistant strains of the coronavirus, and the risk of delays in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines to the world’s population, could also pose significant risks.

AGRICULTURE

Dept. of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Outlook for Crops, excerpt:

Value of crop production to reach record high in 2021–22

The gross value of crop production is forecast to reach a record $43 billion in 2021–22, driven by record winter crop production and high world grain and oilseed prices. Favourable seasonal conditions across all winter cropping regions, particularly in New South Wales and Western Australia (the two biggest winter crop–producing states) are forecast to result in above average to significantly above average yields. A favourable outlook for increased summer crop production is also contributing to the forecast record. The gross value of all major crop commodities is forecast to reach a record level:

• wheat – $11.5 billion (record high)

• barley – $3.4 billion (record high)

• canola – $5.2 billion (record high)

• cotton – $3.9 billion (record high)

• horticulture – $12.5 billion (second highest on record)

Heavy November rainfall has caused flooding in northern and central west New South Wales resulting in production losses for some producers. Although this is not expected to significantly affect tonnage produced, it will affect the value because of a downgrade in quality. Continued high rainfall in December will cause further damage and more total crop losses if crops cannot be harvested.

In other areas across the eastern states and South Australia, wet conditions during harvest and reduced soil nutrient levels caused by 2 years of high yields could reduce grain and oilseeds quality compared with recent years. The extent of these impacts would differ from paddock-to-paddock, and downgrades of wheat protein levels or improvements in the oil content of canola crops could affect the prices that growers receive.

Despite concerns about a resurgence in mice numbers, increased baiting on farms during winter and spring has reduced mice populations in affected regions, and there have been no reports of significant damage to date. They still remain a risk for summer crops in parts of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Farm profits could be reduced by high baiting and cleaning costs if mouse numbers remain elevated during summer.

Figure 1.1 Gross value of crop production, 1971–72 to 2021–22

f ABARES forecast.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Dept. of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Economic overview: December quarter 2021, excerpt:

Exchange rate to remain at current levels

In 2021–22, the Australian exchange rate is assumed to average US74 cents – 1 cent lower than the average for 2020–21. Downward pressure on the exchange rate from falling iron ore prices is expected to be balanced by upward pressure from strengthening economic activity and steep increases in coal and natural gas prices.

Overseas interest rates may move higher over 2022, adding to downward pressure on the Australian dollar if current domestic monetary policy settings remain. Stronger than expected inflation overseas could prompt central banks to bring forward planned rate rises. Australian interest rates are not expected to be lifted in 2021–22. The Reserve Bank of Australia has clearly signalled it will not raise rates unless inflation is sustained in the target range (core inflation of 2 to 3%) and wages growth is ‘materially higher’ than it is at present. Wages growth in Australia remains at less than half the average rate recorded between 2000 and 2010, despite relatively low unemployment.

TOURISM

Do not travel to Australia......

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/australia-travel-advisory.html

https://www.safetravel.govt.nz/australia

Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Commonwealth of Australia, 7 January 2022:

Notice on China-bound foreign passengers' application of health code Jan-07-2022）

2022-01-07 16:05

In order to reduce cross-border transmission of Covid-19, especially considering the latest developments of COVID-19 in Australia, the Embassy and Consulate-Generals of China have made major changes on the application procedures. Passengers who travel on and after 17 January, 2022 are kindly required to read and follow instructions below....

Tourism Australia, International Visitor Survey results September 2021:

Key results

Key results for the year ending September 2021 include:

• international visitor numbers fell by 98.2% to 155,469

• international visitor spend was down 97.1% to $1.3 billion

• visitor nights were down 96.2% to 10.4 million.

Australia’s top 5 markets

Australia’s top 5 international visitor markets saw significant losses:

• Chinese visitor numbers fell 99.7%. This was a loss of 1.3 million visitors. Spend fell 99.4% or $12.2 billion.

• New Zealand visitor numbers fell 93.0%. This was a loss of 1.2 million visitors. Spend fell 88.6% or $2.3 billion. New Zealand saw the smallest losses of all markets, recording 89,000 visitors. This was more than half (57%) of all visitors to Australia for the year ending September 2021. This was due to a trans-Tasman bubble opening between the 2 countries during the June quarter 2021.

• United States of America visitor numbers fell 98.9%. This was a loss of 763,000 visitors. Spend fell 96.4% or $3.9 billion.

• United Kingdom visitor numbers fell 98.9%. This was a loss of 662,000 visitors. Spend fell 96.3% or $3.2 billion.

• Japanese visitor numbers fell 99.7%. This was a loss of 454,000 visitors. Spend fell 99.3% or $2.1 billion.

Tourism losses due to COVID-19

Total international and domestic tourism losses since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 reached $128.3 billion.

International tourism saw losses of $62.5 billion for March 2020 to September 2021. This was due to international border closures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the same period, there were further losses of:

• $49.8 billion from domestic overnight travel

• $16.0 billion from domestic day travel.

Note: The only federal government tourism recovery scenarios are dated 2020 and can be found at Australian Trade and Investment Commission, Tourism Research Australia, Tourism Recovery Scenarios.

CLIMATE

Australian climate variability & change - Time series graphs

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Australian climate variability & change - Trend maps

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Australian Government Dept. of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: June 2021, Incorporating emissions from the NEM up to September 2021, excepts:

On a quarterly basis, national emission levels for the June quarter 2021 increased 0.4% or 0.5 Mt CO2-e on the previous quarter in trend terms. The trend result for the June quarter 2021 reflects small increases across all sectors of the inventory with the exception of the electricity sector which was lower by 0.2% on the March quarter 2021….

On an annual basis, the consumption-based inventory increased 0.4% or 1.8 Mt CO2-e to 420.8 Mt CO2-e in the year to June 2021….

National emissions are preliminarily estimated to be 500 Mt CO2-e in the year to September 2021.

Long term sectoral trends

The most important sectoral drivers of Australia’s long-term emissions trend have been:

• Electricity – where emissions have fallen by 22.6% since the year to June 2009 as renewables have displaced coal as a fuel source, reversing the long term increases experienced in earlier

years;

• Stationary energy (excluding electricity) – which has shown the largest growth of any sector in percentage terms since 1990. Emissions have increased 50.3% or 33.3 Mt CO2-e driven, in particular, by recent growth in the export of LNG;

• Transport – where emissions have increased 48.6% or 29.8 Mt CO2-e since 1990, despite recent volatility due to the impacts of the COVID pandemic;

• Fugitives – where emissions have increased 21.3% or 8.6 Mt CO2-e since 1990. Emissions were relatively stable until 2012 but have increased strongly as a result of the growth of the LNG industry;

• Agriculture – where emissions have declined by 18.5% or 17.0 Mt CO2-e since 1990, in line with declining cattle and sheep populations; and,

• Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) – where emissions have decreased by the largest margin of any sector since 1990 (112.6% or 218.1 Mt CO2-e) due to reductions in land clearing and native forest harvesting, increases in plantations and native vegetation, and improvements in soil carbon.