Wednesday, 29 October 2008

Smart money in the Southern Hemisphere still on Obama and American betting deserts McCain

Centrebet odds yesterday morning:

OBAMA, Barack 1.07
MCCAIN, John


Key state Ohio odds:

DEMOCRATIC PARTY 1.23
REPUBLICAN PARTY 3.75


Breakdown by all US states here.

Electoral College odds:
Obama Wins 384+ 1.50
Obama Wins 339-383 1.35
Obama Wins 311-338 3.25
Obama Wins 270-310 11.00
TIE 269 - 269 101.00
McCain Wins 270-315 9.00
McCain Wins 316-340 101.00
McCain Wins 341-369 126.00
McCain Wins 370+ 141.00


US Betfair on election betting last Monday:

"The Democrat has enjoyed a tremendous surge in favour on Betfair in all of the key swing states. At the start of October the Republicans were enjoying a slender lead in Ohio, Missouri and Florida. However, as of today that sentiment has been totally eroded with these markets now displaying high levels of confidence in a Democratic triumph.

For many weeks the signs have all been pointing towards a resounding Obama win and the real interest is now in the margin of victory. For a Democrat to be in with a chance winning in the likes of Georgia and North Dakota is quite remarkable, and the Betfair markets are showing a 65% chance that Obama will claim more than 351 Electoral College votes overall.

It means very few states can still be considered safe for the Republicans and Betfair customers are now predicting John McCain will be embarrassed when 'America Decides' next week."

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