More signs Turnbull's political honeymoon is over?

Roy Morgan Research, 13 January 2016:

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence declined by a further 4.2 points in December (down 3.5% to 114.5), following on from the November decline of 0.6 points (down 0.5%). The combined drop of 4.8 points (down 4.0%) over the last two months is a likely indication that the initial burst of confidence following Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister is beginning to “cool off”, although it still  remains  11.6% above the level prior to his appointment.

These December figures are the results of 1,001 interviews with a cross section of businesses across Australia.

The level of Business Confidence in December is still positive for the economy but the last two months have seen a decline which now puts it below the five-year average (116.9) and is a sign that confidence is very fragile.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence finished the year on 115.4 (12-13th December), up marginally on the November average of 115.0; but early signs for January (9th and 10th) show that this has also slipped back to 114.1. With both surveys showing signs of weakening, it appears that the initial improvement in outlook among both consumers and businesses following the leadership change is being overtaken by adverse world and local economic events.

Five year graph from December 2010 to December 2015

The Australian, 13 January 2016:

A factional brawl within the Liberal Party risks engulfing Malcolm Turnbull in the lead-up to this year’s election, as his emboldened moderate faction prepares to challenge key supporters of Tony Abbott for preselection.

Right-aligned senator Con­cetta Fierravanti-Wells and Craig Kelly, MP for the Sydney seat of Hughes, are almost certain to face challenges from the moderate faction of the party, while fellow ­Abbott supporter and conser­vative rising star Angus Taylor is also at “serious risk” of losing his seat if moderate convert Russell Matheson launches a challenge.

The factional posturing is also expected to see challenges against Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar, Philip Ruddock in Berowra and Ann Sudmalis in Gilmore, while veteran senator Bill Heffernan is under pressure to retire and make way for the party’s country vice-president, Hollie Hughes.

With at least half a dozen sitting members facing preselection challenges when nominations open next week, Liberal sources have told The Australian the Prime Minister may need to intervene to prevent a factional blow-up in his home state of NSW…..

The Sydney Morning Herald, 18 January 2016:

Last week, factional battles erupted inside the party as the powerful moderate camp, inspired by the ascension of Mr Turnbull, have moved to unseat conservative MPs.

Angus Taylor, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Bronwyn Bishop, John Alexander and Craig Kelly have all been mentioned as vulnerable incumbents.

One senior NSW Liberal said the situation is "threatening to put to the Game of Thrones' Red Wedding scene in the shade".

Senator Abetz said that this culture cost them the 2010 election, in which the Coalition fell only two seats short of forming government.

The Australian, 18 January 2016:

Forget the weekend storm in a teacup about Malcolm Turnbull attending the Mardi Gras as the Prime Minister, not just the local MP. The event really causing agitation on the Right side of Liberal ranks involves Lucy Turnbull.

She’s planning to have an in-depth conversation “on leadership, cities, communities and social innovation” with the impressively credentialed Melody Barnes, director of the White House domestic policy council and assistant to President Barack Obama between 2009 and 2012 and, earlier, chief counsel to senator Edward M Kennedy, as well as a director of legislative affairs for the US Equal Opportunity Commission. Barnes’s political affiliations have caused some eyebrows to rise. But what’s sparked simmering anger in conservative circles is the host for the event, the decidedly Labor-leaning think-tank Per Capita, founded by dotcom multi-millionaire and former Victorian Labor MP Evan Thornley from a blueprint drawn up by sometime Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan speechwriter Dennis Glover.

A bit of Australian leaders trivia from the Internetz

Our Kev has now racked up at least 338 tweets on his Twitter account, KevinRuddPM.
He has about 444 pics up on the account's photostream at Flickr and around 661,787 Twitter followers listed.

By comparison Truffles has a credit of around 665 tweets on his own Twitter account, TurnbullMalcolm.

He's uploaded about 23 pics to Twitpic and somewhere in the vicinity of 16,514 Twitter followers are recorded.

Sorta mirrors the divide between percentage points in the opinion polls - Kev winning just by being in the chair and Truffles running furiously on the spot trying to catch up.

Best political & intergalactic tweets seen recently and other stray thoughts

rod3000 Can I suggest NSW Cabinet have a caged death match? Last one standing gets to be Premier for 18 months. ....from Tweetie

Since when is dying at 77 years and 6 months of age considered an "untimely death", when average male expectancy in the United States is in the vicinity of 77.7 years?

A Scots farmer is now officially riding on the sheep's back as he took home a record £231,000 for a stud ram, named Deveronvale Perfection.

GODWIN Grech, the Treasury official at the centre of the fake email affair, proposed a fee deal to the merchant bank running the OzCar fund whose chairman was a key backer and personal donor to Malcolm Turnbull.The effect of the deal was to enable Credit Suisse, the bank hired by Treasury to implement OzCar, to maintain its $5 million in fees, despite the fund being scaled back from $2 billion to $1.3bn. The Weekend Australian can reveal that John O'Sullivan, the chairman of investment banking for Credit Suisse, donated more than $20,000 to the Wentworth Forum, the Opposition Leader's political fighting fund. According to The Australian on 29th August 2009.

Australia spammed outerspace on 28 August 2009 with 25,800 messages from Earth to Gliese 581d, a planet outside our solar system which may support life of some sort. These messages will take 20 years to reach this planet - at which time expect an intergalactic spam filter to activate.

Best intergalactic tweet from the Hello from Earth project:
"Yidigunmardin nuruku yajingewa wuremulu jandange. Our dream, we're telling to them young kids. We're talking all this dream for the future.
Yidumduma Bill Harney
Wardaman people, near Katherine, Australia"

Senator "Barney Rubble" Joyce (playfully rewriting history) reduces investigations into Australia's breach of UN sanctions against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq to merely a matter of; "The main issue with AWB was there was a concerted effort, a political motive to get rid of Australia's single desk".

Amusing DIGG cover headline for article in the Seattle Weekly, USA; Gays Too Late To Ruin Marriage, Straights Beat You To It

The UK Telegraph posed the question last Saturday; "It's a question that all animal-loving Christian evangelicals must address: who will look after their pets on Earth when the Rapture comes and they are taken up to heaven?"

Who'll lead the Libs at the next election? Turnbull is blowing like a gale

Bookmakers Sportingbet no longer rate Malcolm Turnbull as a raging red hot favourite to lead the Liberals at the next election.

In June, when Peter Costello announced he was heading home and would not be around for the next election, Sportingbet rated Turnbull a near certainty to lead the Libs and offered odds of $1.15. Joe Hockey was seen as the only challenger with any prospects and was rated a $4.25 chance. Other pretenders (oops!) contenders that bookies rated were Tony Abbott ($11), Julie Bishop ($13), Andrew Robb ($15) and Peter Dutton ($15).

Turnbull's odds are now out to $1.90, while Jockey has firmed to $3. Other firmers are Abbott $5.50 and Robb $7.50. Bishop is out the door at $21. Dutton is also a blower and is now $21 - perhaps Costello should have kept his mouth shut rather than singing this bloke's praises.

Fairfax's Age and Herald report that Liberal staff and MPs despair about their prospects of winning the next election and continue to canvas leadership alternatives to Malcolm Turnbull. The mood is so bad that a gathering organised by Mr Turnbull's office at the B Bar in Canberra on Wednesday night to boost morale descended into a discussion about ''saving the furniture''.

According to one Liberal who attended, the leadership question - including the merits of replacing Mr Turnbull with Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey or Andrew Robb - was loudly discussed, with four or five of Turnbull's staff nearby.

''We were not talking about crunching numbers [for a leadership vote] … but the fact that it was being so openly discussed with so many people was just extraordinary.

''The dynamic was incredibly interesting. Turnbull's staff … didn't want to talk to anyone, they just sat in their own little group.''

The source said there was widespread dissatisfaction about poor tactics from the leader's office, a lack of preparation for the next election and the absence of an overall message.

Opposition health spokesman Peter Dutton, Victorian senator and former Costello adviser Mitch Fifield, South Australian Liberal MP Jamie Briggs and NSW Liberal MP Alex Hawke were all present.

Pic credit: Fairfax

Ten reasons why I distrust Malcolm Bligh Turnbull

Cartoon found at The Sydney Morning Herald

1. Malcolm Bligh Turnbull imagines that living in a rented flat when he was young and going to private school on a scholarship means that he understands what it feels like to be disadvantaged; however many little kids growing up in Redfern, Newtown, Millers Point etc., in that era would have given their eye teeth for the level of security and comfort he enjoyed.

2. As Water Minister in the Howard Government he thought it reasonable that water security in the Clarence River catchment should be compromised in order to meet the wasteful water wants of his energy industry, mining and irrigator mates elsewhere.

To further this aim he was prepared to treat Clarence Valley residents like unwashed serfs.

3. Malcolm Turnbull belongs to the oldest gentleman's club in Australia which has a predominately monied WASP membership. Which limits his friendship group in such a way that his ability to understand issues important to the little person is further reduced beyond the fact that he is both a barrister and a conservative politician.

4. As Water Minister in the Howard Government he thought it reasonable that water security in the Clarence River catchment should be compromised in order to meet the wasteful water wants of his energy industry, mining and irrigator mates elsewhere.

To further this aim he was prepared to treat Clarence Valley residents like unwashed serfs.

5. Malcolm Turnbull was part of the Goldman Sachs merchant banking group which helped lay the ground work for those predatory and greedy practices which inevitably led to the Global Financial Crisis. He was also involved in the genisis of the HIH collapse which saw many ordinary Australians lose their savings.

6. As Water Minister in the Howard Government he thought it reasonable that water security in the Clarence River catchment should be compromised in order to meet the wasteful water wants of his energy industry, mining and irrigator mates elsewhere.
To further this aim he was prepared to treat Clarence Valley residents like unwashed serfs.

7. Malcolm Turnbull is such a prima donna that he can take up a popular movement (eg., the republican movement), sink it and blithely walk away. Something he is obviously preparing to do to the federal division of Liberal Party of Australia.

8. As Water Minister in the Howard Government he thought it reasonable that water security in the Clarence River catchment should be compromised in order to meet the wasteful water wants of his energy industry, mining and irrigator mates elsewhere.To further this aim he was prepared to treat Clarence Valley residents like unwashed serfs.

9. Malcolm Turnbull has so much ego and so little intestinal fortitude that he is unable to apologise when discovered trying to hoodwink the Australian electorate, eg., his role in the Ozcar affair.

10. As Water Minister in the Howard Government he thought it reasonable that water security in the Clarence River catchment should be compromised in order to meet the wasteful water wants of his energy industry, mining and irrigator mates elsewhere.
To further this aim he was prepared to treat Clarence Valley residents like unwashed serfs.

Sportingbet odds as Turnbull's 'septem valde horrendus dies' begin and other tales

Seeing that many are predicting that this week will be septem valde horrendus dies for Malcolm Turnbull, I thought I might lead off with a look at how the formal betting is running.

Sportsbet online yesterday afternoon:
Liberal Leader At Next Federal Election 21 Jan 2010 Straight
Malcom Turnbull 1.60
Joe Hockey 3.00
Tony Abbott 6.50
Julie Bishop 21.00
Any Other 13.00
Andrew Robb 9.00
Peter Dutton 21.00

Pic from ABC News

Australia has a brand new federal political party - move over Family First!

Snapshot from the Australian Electoral Commission website

click to make it grow

Yes, your eyes didn't deceive you - it's the Australian S~x Party
Although born in November 2008 with Eros as midwife, it was only registered federally in glorious technicolour on 5th August 2009.
Giving it a comfortable amount of time to gear-up for the next federal election.
I don't know who will have apoplexy first; Family First's Senator Steve Fielding who if he gets re-elected in 2010-11 may find himself sharing his Senate play lunch with an ASP senator defending legal erotica, Federal Communications Minister Stephen Conroy who is determined to eradicate anything far-right Christianity disapproves of, or Teh DBCDE which must be privately wondering how a political party with such a name will fare if a national Internet filtering scheme comes to pass.

And the political point was?

I'm still pondering why Leader of the Opposition Malcolm Turnbull thought he needed to share a recent photograph of himself with the Twitterverse - one which had no political or social significance by itself?
Get a life, Mal!

Turnbull gets a serve concerning rights and obligations of Australian public service employees

Leader of the Opposition Malcolm Turnbull gets a serve he deserves via this media release from the Australian Public Service Commissioner, Lynelle Briggs:

Media release - Disclosure of information: rights and obligations of Australian Public Service employees

Issued 6 August 2009

'It is extraordinary and quite wrong that comments are being made claiming that it is reasonable for public servants to give Government information to Opposition parties. This isn't normal practice, nor is it usual practice, and it is not whistleblowing,' the Australian Public Service Commissioner, Ms Lynelle Briggs, said today.

'It is not commonplace for public servants to meet with Opposition parties to brief them before Senate Committee hearings, and it should never happen without the knowledge and consent of their agency head or Minister.'

'As public servants, we serve the Government, regardless of its political complexion. That is the simple constitutional reality. It is not part of our role as APS employees to serve the Opposition. By convention this means that public servants should have little contact with Opposition or other non-Government parties and requests for briefings are referred to the relevant Minister's office. This is a key consideration in the way in which we manage official information.'

Ms Briggs explained that 'the integrity of the Australian Public Service (APS) is fundamental to its good standing, its credibility and its legitimacy as an important national institution'.

'The APS is required by law to be apolitical, impartial and professional, and to be openly accountable for its actions. Public servants are also required by law to behave honestly and with integrity and to act with care and diligence in the course of their employment. They must comply with all Australian laws, not provide false or misleading information, and maintain appropriate confidentiality about their dealings with Ministers.'

Ms Briggs noted that these duties are set out in the Public Service Act which contains a strong ethical framework to guide the behaviour of APS employees in their working lives.

The APS Values impose a legally binding duty on all APS employees to serve the Government, to be responsive to its requirements and to be accountable for the way in which the public service helps it achieve its goals.

Explaining what this means in practical terms, Ms Briggs said:

'It means that, as public servants, we do not allow party politics to interfere with giving unbiased and objective advice to Government; it means we implement the decisions of Government irrespective of what our own views might be about them; it means we provide the same level of policy advice, implementation and professional support to every government, irrespective of the party in power.'

Ms Briggs said that public servants who leak information are often confused in the media with whistleblowers. 'A leaker is not a whistleblower.'

The Act makes clear that a whistleblower is a public servant who believes that they have uncovered actions which breach the Code of Conduct and who reports them to an authorised person within the public service, which includes the Public Service Commissioner. Whistleblowers maintain the integrity of the system by seeking to correct perceived wrongs through reporting to authorised authorities.

'Leaking involves the unlawful release of official information and is a breach of the Code of Conduct. Leaking, whatever the motive, destroys the trust between the Government and the public service and makes it harder to carry out our responsibilities. It undermines public confidence in the independence and non-partisan nature of the public service and is unacceptable practice for any public servant', she said.

The Australian Public Service Commission clarified this issue last month in a circular to all Australian Public Service agencies (2009/4: Disclosure of official information).

Contact Officer:
Patrick Palmer
Media Liaison and Group Manager
Corporate

Email: patrick.palmer@apsc.gov.au
Tel: 02 6202 3524

The plural possessive which sinks Malcolm Turnbull

Image from The Australian

In an effort to extricate himself from a political debacle of his own making Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull released a series of emails over the last few days.
What is very telling in the email above is the use by disgraced public servant Gordon Grech of the term "we".
It points to longer contact than Turnbull admits to when it comes to details of the OzCar project and a comfortable relationship between both parties to the correspondence.
Big Mal claims he was duped, but this "we" clearly shows that he was already in a Conspiracy of the Willing.

Neither Turnbull or Senator Abetz are seen as credible in their protestations of innocence since Grech was exposed as a probable long-term Coalition mole within Treasury.

Time for both to do their party a favour and resign?

Otherwise Utegate will be a monkey on the party's back right through to the next federal election.

Pic from dumville

Neverending UteGate Saga: transcript of the Auditor General's report

Sometimes it feels like Utegate just won't die.

What with Malcolm Turnbull allowing ABC TV's Australian Story to remain behind the scenes with him as that fake smoking gun email blew up in his face and his prior dealings with a public servant increasingly exposed as something very like a political conspiracy.

The Federal Leader of the Opposition's Utegate 'scandal' is looking very like an old wreck in the back paddock.

At least the Auditor General's report, Representations to the Department of the Treasury in Relation to Motor Dealer Financing Assistance, is finally out and concludes in part:

15. Concerning the issue of whether preferential treatment was given to Mr Grant's case, the Treasurer spoke briefly with Mr Grant, at the request of the Member for Oxley. Treasury was aware that the dealer was acquainted with the Prime Minister, but there is no evidence that the Prime Minister was aware of the representation, or that the Treasurer or his Office applied any pressure on Treasury to give this dealer more or better assistance than others.

16. Some attention has also focused on three progress reports in relation to the Ipswich Central Motors/John Grant Motors representation that were sent to the Treasurer's home facsimile. The available evidence is that the Treasurer had raised concerns that this representation indicated that delays in operationalising the SPV was having an adverse effect on motor dealers. The first report was provided at the initiative of the Departmental Liaison Officer in the Treasurer's Office so as to provide some reassurance to the Treasurer that, notwithstanding the delay with operationalising the SPV, viable dealers were still able to receive assistance. The second and third reports were provided at the initiative of Treasury, by using the 'Reply to All' function within the email system10, noting that the Treasurer was not in Brisbane when the second report was sent. Following the third report, as the Treasurer was not seeking ongoing updates on the status of this particular representation, the Treasurer's Office sought to indicate to Treasury that reports should not be sent to the Treasurer's home facsimile. No further updates were provided to the Treasurer in respect to the Ipswich Central Motors/John Grant Motors representation.

17. The approach taken to assist Ipswich Central Motors/John Grant Motors was proposed by Mr Grech and, when initial attempts to assist the dealer were unsuccessful, no further assistance was offered by Treasury, or sought by the dealer either from Treasury or Ministers. The dealer has since made arrangements for ongoing wholesale floorplan finance from other sources without further departmental assistance.

All 120 pages of the report can be found here.

Photograph by muffin51 at Photobucket

I turn my back for five minutes and look what happens!

I don't know - take off on hols leaving blogging behind and look what happens.

Between 24th and 26th July Truffles Turnbull broke his own Australian Liberal Leader of the Opposition record for unpopularity.

Not only does he trail Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister by 50 percentage points, he also has 50% of those polled dissatisfied with his performance compared to only 26% dissatisfied with Rudders.

And a sparse 34% in the survey say that they will vote for the party he heads.

Turnbull only has to fall another 10 points and he will beat Brendan Nelson's all-time Newspoll low as "Better PM".

With Tony Abbott talking about a return to WorkChoices (Mark 2) should the Coalition regain Government and helpfully suggesting that the retirement age should be raised even further to 70 years of age, it's almost a certainty that Truffles will slide further in voter estimation.

Click on The Australian image to enlarge

Some advice for Malcolm Turnbull